Geopolitics: China Under Xi Jinping
Policy Experts   K. Rudd,   W, Overholt,   H. Swift  Ling Chen
Return to Geopolitics  Compiled by W. Antoniotti 6/27/19
 

Prelude
China: Political Evolution
China: World View
China: Strategic Policies

China's Aggressive

Strategic International Plan

 

 Responding to China: Strategic Plans
Strategic Plan Options Update
China's Korean Goals

China's Trade Position
Updates
Geopolitical Options
 

Prelude

1. Tiger Development Model:
Followers: South Korea, Taiwan,  Singapore, and finally China
All extremely poor and feared economic collapse
Lenin's Authoritarian Approach worked, fear allowed
draconian measures and Big Risk Taking
 

2. Like earlier Tigers, China's Vanguard Communist Party
also took Big risks and Big Economic Gains

Peasant farmers began taking Communal land,
production increase dramatically, Communist Party
let this dangerous activity spread giving up complete
control of peasant lives in hopes of creating party loyalty.

The Party gave up control of urban industry
by directing sales revenue to flow first to companies
with a tax system instituted to share revenue with
government. Implementation required moving 45
million inefficient industrial workers to service
industries over ten years.

Government Inefficient was cut in half.

Like earlier Tigers, Crisis of success made
a simple economy complex requiring change.
See
Rise-China-Economic-Creating-Superpower


3. Similar problems to those of earlier Tigers surfaced
1. Over leveraging created debt bubbles, inflation and bankruptcies.
2. Many big, often party owed companies inefficient, were  closed.
3. Political unrest developed.
4. Strong power groups, often with Party connections developed.

4. Tiger's Managing Change

Taiwan got the economy moving again and enhance Party
political controls by orchestrating a slow liberalization of policy.

South Korea's intransient strongman refused changes
so reformers shot him. Union reactions to the takeover
somewhat protected workers but the Asian financial crisis
gave Western bankers more influence.

China

Market reforms caused much stress.
Leader reacted with a harmonious
atmosphere but growth slowed.
Government had become sluggish.

5. Strategy

Plan
Subdue opposition
Implement reforms
Protect from repudiation/retaliation

The Goals
Better allocation of economic resources
Create a consensus with centralize power in a strong leader
Smaller Politburo Standing Committees,
m\More military controls,
Create a NSC,
Smaller influence groups

Political Control Always Wins
With Mayo, politics were in command
With Ping, economic reform most important
With Xi politics is in command

6. Analysis
Xi unwilling to make tough decisions because of conflicting goals.
Difficult to balance economic and political decisions.
Examples:
Party control still minimized State Owned Enterprise efficiency.
Strengthen rule of law but legal decisions determined by Party.

7. Result: Success is getting more difficult.
1. Resource allocation is poor,
2. Faces much pushback, especially from local governments.
3. Military most improved.

from China Crisis of Success video Dr. William Overholt  

China's Crisis of Success: Book Talk with Dr. William Overholt

Editor's Note:
1. Xi is the creation of the Party, Putin is the creation of Putin.
2. Belt in Road must gain cooperation from dysfunctional governments,
   faces Muslim Ethnic Difficulties, and at present,
   doesn't face the historical land threat from the East Asia.
 

China's Political Evolution

Plan Givens 

1) Communist Party's  prerogatives, power, and presage are paramount

To maintain its legitimacy it must take back day-to day control of daily
activity
from the administrative apparatus.

2) Xi Jinping is a Marxist with a strong believes in the Hegel dialectics
as it relates to contradictions among the people and the resulting instability.

a. He ordered studies of Historical and Dialectical  materialism to counter
China's move toward Neoliberalism.

b. Xi knew economic growth must continue but not beyond the point
where history indicated income/capita was high enough to trigger Neoliberalism.

3) Educating toward nationalism using modern propaganda technique
would delay the Neoliberalism income activation
point.

a. China’s historical greatness has always be base upon a
strong, authoritarian hierarchical states grounded in Confucian ideology
.
b. He is building a modern Confucian, Communist State. from
Kevin Rudd

 

 

China’s World View Guides Strategic Policy
Prelude: While dynamic over the last 100 years, the underlying philosophical foundation
has always been Marxian Historical Dialectical Materials

1) Theoretical Alternatives

a. Despair of Realism: all super powers want to maximize share of world power and dominate the international system
b. Hope of Liberal Internationalist: corporation in sustaining world order with an international rule-based systems

c. Control of Structural Marxism
d. Constructivism Understanding: cultural understanding and rationality used to design and manage international systems.
e. Amalgamation of alternatives: different theories for each unique relationship

 

2) Legitimacy and Survival Requirements of China's International Policy

a. Communist Party Control is at the center of their policy determination.

Chinese citizens are using a new multimedia app from the propaganda ministry that teaches people to think like President Xi Jinping.

High scorers are praised by state media, low scorers are stigmatized at work and school. It's part of Xi's bid to bolster the power and appeal of the Communist Party. Example of authoritarian governments using social media . The app is even used as a dating platform! source 4/8/19


b) Political Stability requires Territorial Integrity over Shenyang, Tibet, Taiwan, and South Chins Sea.
c) Party legitimacy requires Improved living standards and a powerful international Chinese state.

d) Sustainable Environmental Economic Development with clean air, water, and soil is important.
e) Eastern Territorial Integrity free of U.S. influence and eliminating threats similar to those of 20th century Japanese militarism

 

f) Western Territory Integrity eliminating the long history of Western and Northern invaders.
g) Revised/new International
Rule Based Order
resulting from China's meaningful economic and military development.
End to existing U.S. post WW 2 hard power resulting from her Russia and
China aided WW 2 success  with a China led soft power system.

3) Chinese International Policy: An Amalgamation of Alternative Theories

a) Marxian world view

b) Realist view of military power

c) Liberalist Internationalist economic view
 

d) Establishment view of banking and private corporations
 

e) Constructiveness view of their role in managing world order

 

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan 
See
On Grand Strategy

1. Original Plan Hide Strengths, Bide Time

a. Xi now has more centralized political power. 
b. U.S. decline means little reaction to Chinese militarism.
c. China is now an indispensible global economic power for many nations who support/accept her increase power projection.
d. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy and relaxed many of international governance "players."

2. New Plan Confident, Independent, International Activism

a) Expanded South China Sea Militarism

b) Build a New Silk Road to

1) increase trade
2) provide foreign investment
3) provide infrastructure

c. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized

d. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism for launching and participation in new world-wide initiatives


e. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djiboutif Military exercises with Russia

 

Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, business does much investment.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone.

3) Well Conceived Grand Strategy

a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes

b) Think a situation through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends

c) Set a new direction

4) Recent Changes

a) Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CPC authority by replacing state control and
Foreign Relations and Financial Reforms with party control
to stop  stonewalling reforms which had gone on for years.
Consolidating Xi’s Position and China’s Direction: A Readout of China’s Annual Legislative Session video 3/18

2. Reasoning could be: Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model of world capitalism to compete with liberal democracy, 
Xi concept of a future world community, and a mechanistic attempt to invigorate diplomatic community to be more
creative with a more forceful  use of Theory over Policy

3. New State Diplomacy enhances State Capitalism, pragmatism is gone, national interest enhanced by a national vision

 

b) Ideological Confidence increased
1. History now favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
2. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws of economic development.
3. Based on Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by relative decline of US/West and China's rise.
4. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.

5. How a one-party state ideates using political topic/lingua franca is important

 

c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

d) China to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform
1. In 2014, Xi saw an impending struggle for the future of International Global Order

2. China must now control the reform of international order
  
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
    b. U.S. system of global alliance ensures only her own definition international security.  

3. Change U.S. Controlled Global Governess based on a complex web of world organizations
     using international based treaty, law and shared sovereignty.

4. Global Governance Improvement

5. Reasons for success
    a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism increase fairness and justice
    b. U.S. Ignores World Order i.e. Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO.
    6.
 Controlling international institutions is first step

5) U.S. Strategic Plan Update

 

6) China's Big Fear
a) China is a trading nation with a
b) Land military used mainly an internal policy force.
c) Must control the China Sea with a Navy that is many years behind US navy.
d) U.S. uses sanctions, then blockades, to enforce her will.

Source


7)
What is China’s Grand Strategy?

Editor's Note: After a record $46 billion of completed 2016 Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US,
Chinese investment dropped sharply to just $29 billion in 2017 due to greater scrutiny in Beijing
over outbound flows as well as tougher US regulatory reviews of inbound acquisitions. 
 

Editor's Note: Many China experts hold this well designed with the same high esteem the first few Soviet Russian 5 year plans

See Foreign Relations Power International Plan  U.S. - China , N. K. the Future of the Global Order

See Responsible Competition and the Future of U.S.-China Relations
Seven critical questions for strategy

 

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan   Source  K. Rudd


See On Grand Strategy

1. Preface

U.S. Government not designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise
b. Many want limited government
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems

Recent exception was after WW 2
a. After WW2, the Long Telegram from US Moscow embassy described a very aggressive Soviet Union.

b. 40-year multi-administration coordinated containment resulted.

c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully.

Containment Worked
a. Soviet's fragile Economy and Society caused implosion from within.

b. China is very different

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy

1. National Security Strategy 12/2017
2. National Defense Strategy 1/2018
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

2. US Strategic Plan

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition

a. Engagement- you engage and one side backs down.

b. Competition is more adversarial but no guidelines given.

c. Rules to be determined

Editor's Examples.
U.S. threatening Germany over Chinese 5G
 The Trump administration is willing to cut intelligence-sharing with Germany unless Berlin bans Chinese equipment maker Huawei from its 5G networks. Washington is pressuring Europe more broadly to drop Chinese 5G suppliers over concerns they could give Beijing backdoor access to sensitive communications, data, and networks. Germany is crafting new regulations meant to address these concerns, but it won't impose a blanket ban that could anger China and push up the cost of building the new network. We're watching two things here: first, are those new German rules enough for the Trump administration? Second, will Trump's own (somewhat fickle) approach towards Chinese 5G suppliers (like Huawei) turn out to be as harsh as what he's asking of Europe? Source

 

GZERO World with former Obama Defense Secretary Ash Carter

Working in world liberal democratic capitalistic markets
has not resulting in Chinese liberalization.

Top 3 Chinese actions not compatible with America's Interest.
1. US strategy of treating her as a strategic competitor is correct
because she is a trade predator and as a dictatorship, she
combines military, economic and politics power, which without
the TPP, is difficult to counter
[by US backed business and financial oligarchs]
.

2. Uses perceived difficulties with our system to influence our allies
[not be matched by America's Pop Culture dominance].

3. Military expansion to control the China
[is nothing like the US control of the Gulf of Mexico].

Free trade must be managed by an agreed upon economic playbook
[much like the one set up after WWW 2 at Brenton Woods when
the US took control of world trade]
.

 

3. Rudd: Washington's latest attitude toward China is not positive.

a. Makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult

b. Movement toward McCarthyism in both .US. and Australia
    is not a good for International Relations.

4. Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years

a. China under Xi Jinping "will resist any forces: economic, social,
    political, or foreign which in any way challenge the long-term
    survival of the Communist Party.

b. Strong-man, long-time party member, assistant Vice Premier
 Li_Keqiang wants to move toward markets which rankle
conservative fellow politburo bureau members.
Source Video

Responding to China: Strategic Plan #2
US and Chinese Grand Strategy and the Remaking of the Rules Based Global Order video Source Admiral Scott H. Swift

Preface: Admiral Swift left the Navy shortly after remarking he would
follow an order from the U.S. President to use nuclear weapons.
source

The National Defense Strategy is not a Grand Strategy.

Need an increased effort on developing a broad grand strategy.

Too dependent on military in decision making process.
Include all 15 federal agencies and use principles laid out in
the Constitution, Declaration of Independence and Bill if Rights as a guide.

International rules have worked well but
China divorced itself from the global rules based order and only follows rules when it is a benefit.
 

Editor's Note:
Bill Clinton's 1994 National Security Strategy for Engagement and Enlargement centered on Democratic Peace Theory designed to expand US efforts using force to increase stability and spread Democracy around the world.  Small Scale Contingency Military Operations increased dramatically.

Bush 2 campaigned to end such operations against an enemy
that was willing to kill themselves to obtain nuclear weapons.

9/11 ended this idea. Some Bush neoconservative members felt the way to control nuclear weapons was  the use of power and create an "island of democracy ."

See Great Decisions 2018 - The Waning of Pax Americana - Dr. Conrad Crane

See 21st Century Foreign Policy

 

Appendix 1 Korean Peninsula

1) China wants

a, Pro or Neutral border allies free of U.S. influence

b. No Nuclear Weapons

c .Unification should mean neutrality, no foreign troops

2) U.S. wants No Nuclear Weapons

3) Both China and US practicing containment

a. N. K knows this and does a lot of testing but little delivery system development.

b. View of George Friedman of Geo Political Futures

4) Status Quo
Source: Is China the biggest geopolitical risk to the US?

a) George Friedman believes status quo has been everyone policy

b) Needs Vary
China wants U.S. China dependency.

N. Korea, a very poor nation, needs nuclear program, not weapons, as a bargaining chip to get financial assistance

United States has a "phobia" against nuclear weapons causing N. Korean to be more and more bellicose.

S. Korea doesn't want unification because with it comes northern debt.

 

Appendix 2

Updates

Responding to China:
U.S. Strategic Plan

 

6) What is China’s Grand Strategy?

 

 

Adjusting to the China Shock
Bremmer Interviews Dan Rather
China's Growing Clout in Latin America

 

Appendix 3
Editor's Recommendations

Creation of a New International Order
and
Trump's New Political Era?

Return to Geopolitics Index 4/2/19
See
Free Trade Analysis

U.S. Russia, China: Rivals, Adversaries, Enemies? 
Source Understanding China Under Xi Jinping from K. Rudd, 4/18

See Latest from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18 Video