Source Video: Understanding China Under Xi Jinping from Kevin Rudd, 4/18 Video
See Latest from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18 Video
1. Tiger Development Model:
2. Like earlier Tigers, China's Vanguard Communist Party also took Big risks and Big Economic Gains
Peasant farmers began taking Communal land, production increase
dramatically, so Communist Party
The the Party gave up control of urban industry by
directing sales revenue to flow first to companies
Cut inefficient government in half
earlier Tigers, Crisis of success made a simple economy complex requiring
4. Tiger's Managing Change
Taiwan got the
economy moving again and enhance Party political controls
South Korea's intransient strongman refused changes so reformers shot him .
reforms caused much stress.
1. The Plan
control always wins
5. Result Success is getting more difficult.
1) Communist Party's prerogatives, power, and presage are paramount
To maintain its legitimacy it must
take back day-to day control
of daily activity from the administrative apparatus.
2) Xi Jinping is a Marxist with a
strong believes in the Hegel dialectics
as it relates to contradictions among the people and the resulting instability.
b. Xi knows that economic growth
must continue but
not beyond the point where history indicated income/capita
was high enough to trigger Neoliberalism.
c. Foreign Relations Specialist George Friedman
1. China's success improving from a low wage subsistence economy
slowed dramatically in 2008 when world growth slowed.
2. Xi must deal with slower growth and lower expectations
3. Poor economic performance could cause the country to fracture
into distinctive regional powers as it did mid 19th century.
4. Local Communist parties wanted to keep tax collections.
5. Purging is part of an attempt to hold the country together
a. It will provide needed Xi's government with needed tax revenue,
b. It limits those against his centralization drive.
c. It ends protesting and end s "China's Opening Up"
6. Issue has gone from liberalizing or not liberalizing
to staying centralized or braking up
3) Educating toward nationalism
using modern propaganda technique would delay
the Neoliberalism income activation point.
a. China’s historical greatness has always be base upon a
strong, authoritarian hierarchical states grounded in Confucian ideology.
b. He is building a modern Confucian, Communist State. from Kevin Rudd
While dynamic over the
last 100 years, the underlying philosophical foundation
has always been Marxian Historical Dialectical Materials
1) International Relation Theoretical Alternatives
a. Despair of Realism: all super powers want to maximize share of world power and dominate the international system
b. Hope of Liberal Internationalist: corporation in sustaining world order with an international rule-based systems
c. Control of Structural Marxism
d. Constructivism Understanding: cultural understanding and rationality used to design and manage international systems.
e. Amalgamation of alternatives: different theories for each unique relationship
2) Legitimacy and Survival Requirements of China's International Policy
a. Communist Party Control is at the center of their policy determination.
Stability requires Territorial Integrity over Shenyang, Tibet,
Taiwan, and South Chins Sea.
c) Party legitimacy requires Improved living standards and a powerful international Chinese state.
d) Sustainable Environmental Economic Development with clean air, water, and soil is important.
e) Eastern Territorial Integrity free of U.S. influence and eliminating threats similar to those of 20th century Japanese militarism.
f) Western Territory Integrity eliminating the long history of Western and Northern invaders.
International Rule Based Order resulting from China's meaningful economic
and military development.
End to existing U.S. post WW 2 hard power resulting from her Russia and
China aided WW 2 success with a China led soft power system.
3) Chinese International Policy: An Amalgamation of Alternative Theories
a) Marxian world view
b) Realist view of military power
c) Liberalist Internationalist
view of banking and private corporations
e) Constructiveness view of their role in managing world order
4) Sundry Thoughts
is also challenging the status quo of the current Global Rules Based
but Xi can be more patient, especially now that he has a lifetime political position.
b) Communist Party is respected
but not loved because it negated the negative effects of
c) Love requires replaces Capitalistic Materialism with Marxian Materialism
d) China will not dominate the world video
e) Robert Suttner: Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video
Plan 1 Hide Strengths, Bide Time
Xi now has more centralized political power.
b. U.S. decline means means little reaction to
c. China is now an indispensible global economic power for
many nations who support/accept her increase power projection.
d. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy and relaxed many of international governance "players."
2) New Plan: Confident, Independent, International Activism
a. Expanded South China Seal Militarism
Build a New Silk Road to
1) increase trade
2) provide foreign investment
3) provide infrastructure
Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
d. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism for launching and participation in new world-wide initiatives
c. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djiboutif Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note: In a liberal Democracy, much of this is done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone.
3) Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes
b) Think a situation through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends
c) Set a new direction
Note: Many China experts hold this well designed with the same
high esteem the first few Soviet Russian 5 year plans
4) Recent Changes
a) Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CPC authority by replacing state control and Foreign Relations
and Financial Reforms
with party control to stop to stop stonewalling reforms
which had been going on for years. Consolidating Xi’s Position and China’s Direction: A Readout of China’s Annual Legislative Session 3/18
2. Reasoning could be: Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model of
world capitalism to compete with liberal democracy,
Xi concept of a future world community, and a mechanistic attempt to invigorate diplomatic community to be more
creative with a more forceful use of Theory over Policy
3. New State Diplomacy enhances State Capitalism, pragmatism is gone, national interest enhanced by a national vision
See Foreign Relations Power International PlanU.S. - China Relations, North Korea the Future of the Global Order
b) Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis.
Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws of economic development.
Based on Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by relative decline of US/West and China's rise
Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
How a one-party state ideates using political topic/lingua franca is important.
c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. In 2014, Xi saw an impending struggle for the future of
International Global Order
2. China must now
control the reform of international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. U.S. system of global alliance ensures only her own
definition international security.
3. Change U.S. Controlled Global Governess based on a
complex web of world organizations using international
based treaty, law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism increase fairness and justice
b. U.S. Ignores World Order i.e. Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO.
6. Controlling international institutions is first step
China Backing off a Bit as Worlds/US reacts to strong foreign policy?
5) China's Big Fear
a) China is a trading nation with a
b) Land military used mainly an internal policy force.
c) Must control the China Sea with a Navy that is many years behind US navy.
d) U.S. uses sanctions, then blockades, to enforce her will.
See Adjusting to the China Shock
Bremmer Interviews Dan Rather
China's Growing Clout in Latin America
After a record $46 billion of completed 2016
Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US,
Chinese investment dropped sharply to just $29 billion in 2017 due to greater scrutiny in Beijing
over outbound flows as well as tougher US regulatory reviews of inbound acquisitions.
competition and the future of U.S.-China relations
Seven critical questions for strategy
Government not designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
National Security Strategy 12/2017
Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement- you engage and one
side backs down.
U.S. threatening Germany over Chinese 5G – The Trump administration is willing to cut intelligence-sharing with Germany unless Berlin bans Chinese equipment maker Huawei from its 5G networks. Washington is pressuring Europe more broadly to drop Chinese 5G suppliers over concerns they could give Beijing backdoor access to sensitive communications, data, and networks. Germany is crafting new regulations meant to address these concerns, but it won't impose a blanket ban that could anger China and push up the cost of building the new network. We're watching two things here: first, are those new German rules enough for the Trump administration? Second, will Trump's own (somewhat fickle) approach towards Chinese 5G suppliers (like Huawei) turn out to be as harsh as what he's asking of Europe? Source
3. Washington's latest attitude toward China is not positive.
4. Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
Appendix 1 Korean Peninsula
1) China wants
Pro or Neutral border allies free of U.S. influence
2) U.S. wants No Nuclear Weapons
3) Both China and US practicing containment
4) Status Quo
1. Trump’s trade war confirms that Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” was an expansion into China’s sphere of influence.
2. Recent actions means trade talks must be delayed at least until after US midterm elections.
3. Xi Jinping ability to consolidated more power is partially based on fulfilling a “China Dream.” He can’t back down.
4. China’s economy will suffer little, much less than 0.5 percent of GDP.
China believes she has less near-term political vulnerability
but greater long-term economic vulnerability as
Kevin thinks keeping
Chinese students in America is very important to long-term political
Kevin Rudd: China will not over react to Trump's trade policy
B. Relations With Russia Bremmer video
Part 2 Trade from China Crisis of Success video by Dr. William Overholt
Three areas of US
China's Attitude toward U.S. Trade
Affect of Trade War on Chinese
3 History of China
2. Will we see a "mini-deal" in the US-China trade dispute?
#2 China was part of the Colonial Empire of Great Britain
Opium Trade was a Big Money Maker.