Responding to China: A Strategic Plan source Latest from
U.S. Government not designed for Governmental Grand
a. Separation of powers requires compromise
b. Many want limited government
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems
Recent exception was after WW 2
a. After WW2, the
Long Telegram from US Moscow embassy described a very aggressive
b. Result was a 40-year multi-administration coordinated policy of
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully
Soviet Containment Worked
a. Fragility of Soviet Economy
and Society caused implosion from within
b. China is very different
Trump Would Say We Have a
1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/2017
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/2018
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018
US Strategic Plan<
Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic
a. Engagement- you engage and one
side backs down.
b. Competition is more adversarial, but no guidelines given.
c. Rules to be determined
Washington's latest attitude toward China is not positive.
a. Makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult
b. Movement toward McCarthyism in both .US. and Australia is not a good for
Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping
"will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign
which in any way challenge the long-term survival of the
b. Strong-man, long-time party member, assistant Vice Premier Likening
wants to move toward markets which rankle conservative
fellow politburo bureau members.
Century Foreign Policy
Appendix 1 Korean Peninsula
1) China wants
a, Pro or Neutral border allies free of U.S. influence
b. No Nuclear Weapons
c. Unification should mean neutrality, no foreign troops
2) U.S. wants No
3) Both China and US practicing containment
a. N. K
knows this and does a lot of testing but little delivery system
b. View of George Friedman of Geo Political Futures
4) Status Quo
China the biggest geopolitical risk to the US?
a) George Friedman believes status
quo has been everyone policy
b) Needs Vary
China wants U.S. China dependency.
N. Korea, a very poor nation, needs nuclear
program, not weapons, as a bargaining chip to get financial assistance
United States has a "phobia" against
nuclear weapons causing N. Korean to be more and more bellicose.
S. Korea doesn't want unification because with it
comes northern debt.
Appendix 2 China's Trade
Latest 12/18 Trump's
90-day Tariff deal
Reasons China Isn't Backing Down
1. Trump’s trade war
confirms that Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” was an expansion into China’s
sphere of influence.
2. Recent actions mean
trade talks must be delayed at least until after US midterm elections.
3. Xi Jinping ability to
consolidate more power is partially based on fulfilling a “China
Dream.” He can’t back down.
4. China’s economy will
suffer little, much less than 0.5 percent of GDP.
5. China believes she has less near-term
political vulnerability but greater long-term economic
China’s authoritarian state-dominated capitalism better absorbs economic
6. see figure 2
The bottom line: Trump and Xi
believe near-term fallout can be managed so this trade war will probably
last longer and inflict damage.
Kevin thinks keeping Chinese students
in America is very important to long-term political security.
Australia has relatively many more Chinese students.
Historically not listening to our allies has not worked out well.
Think Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan/Syrian wars.
B. Kevin Rudd: China will not over react to Trump's
a. She will lower trade balance.
b. Her relatively low tariffs of about 9% will be lowered.
c. China could propose zero tariffs in both countries and could make same
offer to others.
with Russia Bremmer
Century Free Trade Analysis
3 History of China
Rory Truex: "Xi for life? What does it mean for China and the
Chinese Communism: A
History of Short Regimes
1. Fall from within, Coups, 60%
Party used to
integrate politics through institutions
Constitution allowed two 5-Year terms
Smooth transition with new leader introduced before end of second term,
usually after first term
Seven to Nine cooperating leaders
2. Revolution 40%
Opened in new century,
gave public more input, called responsive authoritarianism
Changes at the 2012 Party
Congress after Xi’ first 5 years
No success or appeared
New Socialism, Xi’s his key philosophical contribution was a more Chinese
with propaganda used
to make this an historically important meaning Xi was at the center
The open era that
began in 1975 was over.
Term Limits removed from constitution so Xi could stay or not stay but was not
Rory thinks he will be around a long time
Nationalist will return China to her to Greatness which was sidetracked by early
19th century Opium Wars.
It will replace economic growth as the pillar of Communist Party legitimacy.
Authoritarian leader as China’s open-closed political cycle returned to
Party centered political
process with more repression and less openness i.e. liberal thought.
Xi was a populist, anti-corruption, charismatic leader of the people
Political style to
keep citizens less revolutionary.
Some feel anti-corruption
is all show with none of his real important friends prosecuted
Other see some
positive result but little formal anti-corruption organized administration has
Success is unknown.
Xi is China’s
version of Trump
Nationalism is a
Make China Great Again slogan
Authoritarian is a law and order slogan using coercion
Populism is Drain the Swamp
3 Troubling Trends
Xi cult of
personality being developed
Yes-man politics with no opposition is allowed
Surveillance state using high-tech face recognition, AI, and Social media
to watch everything
of China: What is China, Anyway?
Western Civilization Economic History