Return to GeopoliticsIndex 4/2/19
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U.S. Russia, China: Rivals, Adversaries, Enemies?
Source Understanding China Under Xi Jinping from K. Rudd, 4/18
See Latest from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18 Video
1. Tiger Development Model:
2. Like earlier Tigers, China's Vanguard Communist Party
Peasant farmers began taking Communal land,
The Party gave up control of urban industry
Government Inefficient was cut in half.
earlier Tigers, Crisis of success made
4. Tiger's Managing Change
got the economy moving again and enhance Party
reforms caused much stress.
Control Always Wins
Success is getting more difficult.
from China Crisis of Success video Dr. William Overholt
Editor's Note: Xi is the creation of the Party, Putin is the creation of Putin
1) Communist Party's prerogatives, power, and presage are paramount
To maintain its legitimacy it
must take back day-to day control of daily
2) Xi Jinping is a Marxist with a
strong believes in the
b. Xi knew
economic growth must continue but not beyond the point
3) Educating toward nationalism
using modern propaganda technique
1) Theoretical Alternatives
a. Despair of Realism: all super
powers want to maximize share of world power and dominate the international
c. Control of Structural
2) Legitimacy and Survival Requirements of China's International Policy
a. Communist Party Control is at the center of their policy determination.
Chinese citizens are using a new multimedia app from the propaganda ministry that teaches people to think like President Xi Jinping.
High scorers are praised by state media, low scorers are stigmatized at work and school. It's part of Xi's bid to bolster the power and appeal of the Communist Party. Example of authoritarian governments using social media . The app is even used as a dating platform! source 4/8/19
d) Sustainable Environmental
Economic Development with clean air, water, and soil is important.
f) Western Territory Integrity
eliminating the long history of Western and Northern invaders.
3) Chinese International Policy: An Amalgamation of Alternative Theories
a) Marxian world view
b) Realist view of military power
c) Liberalist Internationalist
view of banking and private corporations
e) Constructiveness view of their role in managing world order
1. Original Plan Hide Strengths, Bide Time
a. Xi now has more centralized
2. New Plan Confident, Independent, International Activism
Expanded South China Sea Militarism
Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
3) Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes
b) Think a situation through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends
c) Set a new direction
4) Recent Changes
role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic
corrupt state bureaucracy
b) Ideological Confidence increased
5. How a one-party state ideates using political topic/lingua franca is important
c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform
2. China must now
control the reform of international order
3. Change U.S.
Controlled Global Governess based on a
complex web of world organizations
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for
5) China's Big Fear
After a record $46 billion of completed 2016
Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US,
Editor's Note: Many China experts hold this well designed with the same high esteem the first few Soviet Russian 5 year plans
See Foreign Relations Power International Plan U.S. - China , N. K. the Future of the Global Order
Competition and the Future of U.S.-China Relations
Government not designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
National Security Strategy 12/2017
Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement- you engage and one
side backs down.
U.S. threatening Germany over Chinese 5G – The Trump administration is willing to cut intelligence-sharing with Germany unless Berlin bans Chinese equipment maker Huawei from its 5G networks. Washington is pressuring Europe more broadly to drop Chinese 5G suppliers over concerns they could give Beijing backdoor access to sensitive communications, data, and networks. Germany is crafting new regulations meant to address these concerns, but it won't impose a blanket ban that could anger China and push up the cost of building the new network. We're watching two things here: first, are those new German rules enough for the Trump administration? Second, will Trump's own (somewhat fickle) approach towards Chinese 5G suppliers (like Huawei) turn out to be as harsh as what he's asking of Europe? Source
3. Washington's latest attitude toward China is not positive.
4. Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
Appendix 1 Korean Peninsula
1) China wants
Pro or Neutral border allies free of U.S. influence
2) U.S. wants No Nuclear Weapons
3) Both China and US practicing containment
4) Status Quo