Understanding China Under Xi Jinping
by Kevin Rudd, Foreign Policy Expert 
     Compiled by W. Antoinette 1/17/19  

 

 


 

 

China's Emerging Political System

China’s World View Determines Strategic Policies

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Responding to China: U.S. Strategic Plan

Future Scenarios

Political Process U.S. vs. China

China's Korean Peninsula Goals

China's Trade Position

History of China

Editor's Choice

Creation of a New International Order and Trump's New Political Era?

Return to Russia, China: Rivals, Adversaries, Enemies? 

Source Video: Understanding China Under Xi Jinping from Kevin Rudd, 4/18 Video

See Latest from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18 Video

 

 

 


China's Emerging Political System

 

 

 

 

1) Communist Party's prerogatives, power, and presage are paramount

 

 

 

  

 

To maintain its legitimacy, it must take back day-to day control
of daily activity from the administrative apparatus.

2) Xi Jinping is a Marxist with a strong believes in the Hegel dialectics
as it relates to contradictions among the people and the resulting instability.

 

 

 

 

a. He ordered studies of Historical and Dialectical  materialism to counter China's move toward Neoliberalism.

 

 

 


 

b. Xi knows that economic growth must continue but not beyond the point where
history indicated income/capita was high enough to trigger Neoliberalism.
c. Foreign Relations Specialist George Friedman
   1. China's success improving from a low wage subsistence economy
       slowed dramatically in 2008 when world growth slowed.
   2. Xi must deal with slower growth and the resulting decreasing expectations
   3. Poor economic performance could cause the country to fracture
       into distinctive regional powers as it did mid-19th century
   4. Local Communist parties would not want tax dollars going elsewhere
   5. Purging is part of an attempt to hold the country together
       a. It will provide needed Xi's government with needed tax revenue,
       b. It also limits those against his centralization drive.
       c. It also means an end to protesting and an end to "China's Opening Up"
   6. Issue has gone from liberalizing or not liberalizing to staying centralized or braking up

3) Educating toward nationalism
     using modern propaganda technique would delay the Neoliberalism income activation point.

 

a. China’s historical greatness has always been based upon a strong, authoritarian hierarchical states grounded in Confucian ideology.

 

 

 

b. He is building a modern Confucian, Communist State. See figure one


China’s World View Determines Strategic Policy
 

 

 

 

While dynamic over the last 100 years, the underlying philosophical foundation
has always been Marxian Historical Dialectical Materials

Plan Requirements

1) International Relation Theoretical Alternatives

 

 

 

 


a. Despair
of Realism: all super powers want to maximize share of world power and dominate the international system

 

 

 

 

b. Hope of Liberal Internationalist: corporation in sustaining world order with an international rule-based system

 

 

 

 

c. Control of Structural Marxism

 

 

 

d. Constructivism Understanding: cultural understanding and rationality used to design and manage international systems.

 

e. Amalgamation of alternatives: different theories for each unique relationship
 

 

 

 

 

2) Legitimacy and Survival Requirements of China's International Policy

 

 

 

 


a. Communist Party Control is at the center of their policy determination.

 

 

 

 

b. Political Stability requires Territorial Integrity over Shenyang, Tibet, Taiwan, and South China Sea.
c) Party legitimacy requires Improved living standards and a powerful international Chinese state.

 

 

 

 

d) Sustainable Environmental Economic Development with clean air, water, and soil is important.

 

 

 

 

e) Eastern Territorial Integrity free of U.S. influence and eliminating threats like those of 20th century Japanese militarism.

 

 

 

 

f) Western Territory Integrity eliminating the long history of Western and Northern invaders.

 

 

 

 

g) Revised/new International Rule Based Order resulting from China's meaningful economic and military development.
    End to existing U.S. post WW 2 hard power resulting from her Russia and
    China aided WW 2 success with a China led soft power system.
 

 

 

 

 

3) Chinese International Policy: An Amalgamation of Alternative Theories

 

 

 

 

a) Marxian world view 
b) Realist view of military power

 

 

 

c) Liberalist Internationalist economic view

 

d) Establishment view of banking and private corporations

 

 

 

 

e) Constructiveness view of their role in managing world order

 

 

 

 

4) Sundry Thoughts

 

 

 

 

a) Trump is also challenging the status quo of the current Global Rules Based Order
    but Xi can be more patient, especially now that he has a lifetime political position.

 

 

b) Communist Party is respected but not loved because it negated the negative effects of post WW 2 issues and the Cultural Revolution

c) Love requires replaces Capitalistic Materialism with Marxian Materialism.

d) China will not dominate the world video

 

e) Robert Suttner: Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

 

 

 

Plan History

 

 

1) Older Plan: Hide Strengths, Bide Time

 

 

 

 

      a. Xi now has more centralized political power. 
      b. U.S. decline continues and will not overreact to Chinese militarism.
      c. China is now an indispensable global economic power for many nations who support/accept her increase power projection.
      d. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy and relaxed many of international governance "players."

 

 

 

 

2) New Plan: Confident, Independent, International Activism

 

 

 

 

      a. Expanded South China Sea Militarism

 

 

 

 

      b. Build a New Silk Road to 1) increase trade 2) provide foreign investment 3) provide infrastructure

 

 

 

 

      c. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized

 

 

 

 

      d. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism for launching and participation in new world-wide initiatives

 

 

 

 

      c. New Naval Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

 

 

 

 

      f. Military exercises with Russia

 

 

 

 

        Editor's Note: In a liberal Democracy, much of this is done by business expansion. In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone.

 

3) Well Conceived Grand Strategy

 

 

 

 

     a) Based on a clearly defined policy purpose

 

 

 

 

     b) Think a situation through, observe in detail and in relation to underlying historical trends

 

 

 

 

     c) Set a new direction

 

 

 

 

     Editor's Note: Many China experts hold this well designed with the same high esteem the first few Soviet Russian 5-year plans

 

 

 

 

4) Recent Changes

 

 

 

 

     a) Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy

 

 

 

 

         1. Enhanced CPC authority by replacing state control Foreign Relations Diplomacy with party control

 

 

 

 

         2. Reasoning could be: Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model of world capitalism to compete with liberal democracy, 
            Xi concept of a future world community, and a mechanistic attempt to invigorate diplomatic community to be more
            creative with a more forceful use of Theory over Policy       

 

 

 

 

         3. New State Diplomacy enhances State Capitalism, pragmatism is gone, national interest enhanced by a national vision

 

 

 

 

       See Foreign Relations Power International Plan U.S. - China Relations, North Korea the Future of the Global Order

 

     b) Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
          Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws of economic development. 
          Based on Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
          Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
          How a one-party state ideates using political topic/lingua franca is important.

 

     c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

 

 

 

 

     d) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
         1. In 2014, Xi saw an impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
         2. China must now control the reform of international order
             a. organization like UN, WTO ...
             b. U.S. system of global alliance ensures only her own definition international security.  
         3. Change U.S. Controlled Global Governess based on a complex web of world organizations 
             using international based treaty, law and shared sovereignty.
         4. Global Governance Improvement
         5. Reasons for success
             Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
             U.S. Ignoring World Order i.e. Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO cooperation.
         6. Controlling international institutions is first step

 

 

 

 

     e) Is China Backing off a Bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts to aggressive foreign policy?
 

 

 

 

 

5) China's Big Fear
   a) China is a trading nation with a
   b) Land military used mainly an internal policy force.
   c) Must control the China Sea with a Navy that is
many years behind US navy.
   d) U.S. uses sanctions, then blockades, to enforce her will.
     Source 
      See Adjusting to the China Shock pdf
          Ian Bremmer Interview with Dan Rather
          China's Growing Clout in Latin America

 

 

 

 

 

After a record $46 billion of completed 2016 Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US,
Chinese investment dropped sharply to just $29 billion in 2017 due to greater scrutiny in Beijing
over outbound flows as well as tougher US regulatory reviews of inbound acquisitions. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan source Latest from Kevin Rudd

1. Preface

U.S. Government not designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise
b. Many want limited government
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems

Recent exception was after WW 2
a. After WW2, the Long Telegram from US Moscow embassy described a very aggressive Soviet Union.
b. Result was a 40-year multi-administration coordinated policy of containment.
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully

Soviet Containment Worked
a. Fragility of Soviet Economy and Society caused implosion from within
b. China is very different

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy

1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/2017
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/2018
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

2. US Strategic Plan<

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition

a. Engagement- you engage and one side backs down.
b. Competition is more adversarial, but no guidelines given.
c. Rules to be determined

3. Washington's latest attitude toward China is not positive.
a. Makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult
b. Movement toward McCarthyism in both .US. and Australia is not a good for International Relations.

4. Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping "will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign
    which in any way challenge the long-term survival of the Communist Party.
b. Strong-man, long-time party member, assistant Vice Premier Likening
    wants to move toward markets which rankle conservative fellow politburo bureau members.

See 21st Century Foreign Policy

Appendix 1 Korean Peninsula

1) China wants

a, Pro or Neutral border allies free of U.S. influence
b. No Nuclear Weapons
c. Unification should mean neutrality, no foreign troops

2) U.S. wants No Nuclear Weapons

3) Both China and US practicing containment
a. N. K knows this and does a lot of testing but little delivery system development.
b. View of George Friedman of Geo Political Futures

4) Status Quo
Source: Is China the biggest geopolitical risk to the US?
a) George Friedman believes status quo has been everyone policy
b) Needs Vary
    China wants U.S. China dependency.
    N. Korea, a very poor nation, needs nuclear program, not weapons, as a bargaining chip to get financial assistance
    United States has a "phobia" against nuclear weapons causing N. Korean to be more and more bellicose.
    S. Korea doesn't want unification because with it comes northern debt.

Appendix 2 China's Trade Position
 

Latest 12/18
Trump's 90-day Tariff deal
A. Five Reasons China Isn't Backing  Down

1.    Trump’s trade war confirms that Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” was an expansion into China’s sphere of influence.

2.    Recent actions mean trade talks must be delayed at least until after US midterm elections.

3.    Xi Jinping ability to consolidate more power is partially based on fulfilling a “China Dream.” He can’t back down.

4.    China’s economy will suffer little, much less than 0.5 percent of GDP.

5.    China believes she has less near-term political vulnerability but greater long-term economic vulnerability as
China’s authoritarian state-dominated capitalism better absorbs economic shocks.

6.    see figure 2

The bottom line:
 Trump and Xi believe near-term fallout can be managed so this trade war will probably last longer and inflict damage.

Kevin thinks keeping Chinese students in America is very important to long-term political security.
Australia has relatively many more Chinese students.
Editor's Note: Historically not listening to our allies has not worked out well.
Think Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan/Syrian wars.

B. Kevin Rudd: China will not over react to Trump's trade policy
a. She will lower trade balance.
b. Her relatively low tariffs of about 9% will be lowered.
c. China could propose zero tariffs in both countries and could make same offer to others.

B. Relations with Russia Bremmer video

See 21st Century Free Trade Analysis

Appendix 3 History of China

Video Professor Rory Truex: "Xi for life? What does it mean for China and the World?"

History


Chinese Communism: A History of Short Regimes
1. Fall from within, Coups, 60%

Party used to integrate politics through institutions
Constitution allowed two 5-Year terms
Smooth transition with new leader introduced before end of second term, usually after first term
Seven to Nine cooperating leaders

 

2. Revolution 40%

 

Opened in new century, gave public more input, called responsive authoritarianism

Changes at the 2012 Party Congress after Xi’ first 5 years
No success or appeared
New Socialism, Xi’s his key philosophical contribution was a more Chinese based SOCIALISM

with propaganda used to make this an historically important meaning Xi was at the center

 

The open era that began in 1975 was over.
Term Limits removed from constitution so Xi could stay or not stay but was not lane duck
Rory thinks he will be around a long time

 

Xi’s Political Philosophy
Nationalist will return China to her to Greatness which was sidetracked by early 19th century Opium Wars.
It will replace economic growth as the pillar of Communist Party legitimacy.
Authoritarian leader as China’s open-closed political cycle returned to closed.

Party centered political process with more repression and less openness i.e. liberal thought.
Xi was a populist, anti-corruption, charismatic leader of the people

Political style to keep citizens less revolutionary.

Some feel anti-corruption is all show with none of his real important friends prosecuted

Other see some positive result but little formal anti-corruption organized administration has developed.
Success is unknown.

 

Xi is China’s version of Trump
Nationalism is a Make China Great Again slogan
Authoritarian is a law and order slogan using coercion
Populism is Drain the Swamp


3 Troubling Trends
Xi cult of personality being developed
Yes-man politics with no opposition is allowed
Surveillance state using high-tech face recognition, AI, and Social media to watch everything

See

History of China: What is China, Anyway?

Modern Western Civilization Economic History

 

 

 

Appendix 4 Future Scenarios

from

Fitch Solutions from

1. U.S. vs. China Risk-Four Scenarios to 2030

 

 

 

2. Will we see a "mini-deal" in the US-China trade dispute?

 

Source: Thomas Costerg, Pictet Wealth Management

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iiB9SquImLbc/v0/-1x-1.png

 

#2

China was part of the Colonial Empire of Great Britain

Opium Trade was a Big Money Maker.

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