Understanding China Under Xi Jinping

 

 


China's Emerging Political System

China’s World View and Determining Strategic Policies

Korean Peninsula

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

China's Trade Position

 

Return to Russia, China: U. S. Rivals, Adversaries, or Enemies?  9/14/18

 
China's Emerging Political System
     
  1) Communist Party's  prerogatives, power, and presage are paramount      
  

 

To maintain its legitimacy it must take back day-to day control of daily activity from the administrative apparatus.

2) Xi Jinping is a Marxist with a strong believes in the Hegel dialectics as it relates
to contradictions among the people and the resulting instability.

     
  a. He ordered studies of Historical and Dialectical  materialism to counter China's move toward Neoliberalism.      

 
b. Xi knows that economic growth must continue but not beyond the point where history indicated income/capita was high enough to trigger Neoliberalism.

3) Education toward nationalism using modern propaganda technique would increase the Neoliberalism income activation point..

  a. China’s historical greatness has always be base upon a strong, authoritarian hierarchical states grounded in Confucian ideology.    
  b. He is building a modern Confucian, Communist State.


China’s World View and Strategic Policy Determination
 

     
  While dynamic over last 100 years, the underlying philosophical foundation has always been the Marxian Historical Dialectical Materials
1) International Relation Theoretical Alternatives
     
  a. Despair of Realism: all super powers want to maximize share of world power and dominate the international system      
  b. Hope of Liberal Internationalist: a corporation in sustaining world order with an international rule-based systems      
  c. Control of Structural Marxism
d. Understanding of Constructivism: cultural understanding and rationality used to design and  manage international systems.
     
  e. Amalgamation of alternatives: different theories for each unique relationship      
  2) Legitimacy and Survival Requirements of China's International Policy      
  a. Communist Party Control is at the center of their determining process      
         
  b. Political Stability requires Territorial integrity over Shenyang, Tibet, Taiwan, and South Chins Sea
c) Party legitimacy requires Improved living standards and a powerful international Chinese state.
     
  d) Sustainable environmental economic developing with clean air, water, and soil      
  e) Eastern  territorial integrity free of U.S. influence eliminating threats similar to those of e20th century Japanese militarism.      
  f) Western territory integrity eliminating the long history of Western and Northern invaders      
  g) Revised/new international rule base order resulting from China's meaningful economic and military
   
Existing U.S. hard power resulted from her WW 2 successes which were substantially helped by Russia and China,.
    U.S. set up a Western based soft powers International Ruled Base System.
     
  3) Chinese International Policy: Amalgamation of Alternative Theories      
  a) Marxian world view 
b) Realist view of military power
     
 

c) Liberalist Internationalist Economic view
d) Establishment view of banking and private corporations

     
 

e) Constructiveness view of their role in managing world order

     
  4) Sundry Thoughts      
 

a) Trump is also challenging the status quo of the current Global Rules Based Order but Xi can be more patient,
     especially now that he has a lifetime political position.
b) China will not dominate the world video
c) Communist Party is respected but not loved because it negated the negative effects of post WW 2 issues and the Cultural Revolution

d) Love requires replaces Capitalistic Materialism with Marxian Materials.

Korean Peninsula

   
  1) China wants      
  a, Pro or Neutral border allies free of U.S. influence      
  b. No Nuclear Weapons      
  c.. Unification should mean neutrality, no foreign troops      
  2) U.S. wants      
  a. No Nuclear Weapons      
         
China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan
from U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

 

   
  1) Older Plan: Hide Strengths, Bide Time Replaced      
        a. Xi now has more centralized political power 
      b. US decline continues and will not overreact to Chinese militarism
      c. China now an indispensible global economic power for many nations to support/accept her increase power projection
      d. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy and relaxed nature of international governance "players"
     
  2) New Plan: Confident, Independent, International Activism      
        a. Expanded South China Seal Militarism      
        b. Build a New Silk Road for to 1) increase trade 2) provide foreign investment 3) provide infrastructure      
        c. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized      
        d. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism for launching and participation in new world-wide initiatives      
        c. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti      
        f. Military exercises with Russia      
          Editor's Note: In a liberal Democracy, much of this is done by business expansion. In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone
  3) Well Conceived Grand Strategy      
       a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes      
       b) Think a situation through, observe in detail and in relation to underlying historical trends      
       c) Set a new direction      
         
  4) Recent Changes      
       a) Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy      
            1. Enhanced CPC authority by replacing state control Foreign Relations Diplomacy with party controlled Foreign Relations Power
            2, Reasoning could be: 21:00
              Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model of world capitalism to compete with liberal democracy, 
              Xi concept of future world community, mechanistic attempt to invigorate diplomatic community to be more creative and forceful 
              Use of Theory over Policy       
          3. 
New State Diplomacy enhances State Capitalism, pragmatism is gone, national interest enhanced by a national vision
       b) Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis 
          Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws of economic development 
          Based on Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
          Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China
          How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua franca is important
      c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy      
      d) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
         1. In 2014, Xi saw an impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
          2. China must now control the reform of international order
              a. organization like UN, WTO ...
              b. US system of global alliance to ensure her own definition international security  
          3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a complex web of world organizations 
              using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty
          4. Global Governance Improvement
          5. Reasons for success
              Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
              US Ignoring World Order i.e. Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO cooperation .
          6. Controlling international institutions is first step
     
           e)  Is China Backing off a Bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts

         See Adjusting to the China Shock pdf

After a record $46 billion of completed Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US in 2016, Chinese investment dropped sharply to just $29 billion in 2017 due to greater scrutiny in Beijing over outbound flows as well as tougher US regulatory reviews of inbound acquisitions. 

     
   
   

China's Trade Position
from Five Reasons China Isn't Backing  Down is more extensive.

  1. Trump’s trade war confirms that Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” was an expansion into China’s sphere of influence

  2. Recent actions means trade talks must be delayed at least until after US midterm elections.

  3. Xi Jinping ability to consolidated more power is partially based on  fulfilling a  “China Dream.” so he can’t back down.

  4. China’s economy will suffer little, much less than 0.5 percent of GDP.

  5. China believes she has less near-term political vulnerability but greater long-term economic vulnerability as
    China’s authoritarian state-dominated capitalism better absorbs economic shocks.

The bottom line: Both Trump and Xi believe near-term fallout can be managed so this trade war will probably last longer and inflict much damage.