Index

Prelude    Work   Covid-19  Taxes  Debt     Government  

Education   Health & Safety   Poverty

Socialism vs. Capitalism    Civility   Populism  

Fake News   Immigration   Terror      Geopolitics    

2020 Election Information    Decision 2020

The Bottom Line   9/23/20

Prelude:

Retrospection Bias

Confirmation Bias

Weasel Words
W
easel words&anonymous authority are words&phrases sounding specific&meaningful
when a vague&ambiguous claim has been made. Examples include the phrases "some people say", "most people think”, and "researchers believe". These phrases allow one to later deny any specific meaning if the statement is challenged because the statement was never specific in the first place.

Work:
  Part I  1. Bad-Good-Very Good   2. Cause: The Ups, Downs of Capitalism  

3. US Capitalism Adjusts Well Again   4. Creative Destruction Hurt US Workers Most

Part 2   5. Unemployment Crisis     6. The Future of Work    7. What Will Happen?  

Epilog 8.  If Only It Were So Simple  9. John Mueller concerning Retrospection Bias
 

1. The Bad: Workers Earn a Smaller Share   Many Blame Capitalism?

What You Should Know About Wages


Recommendations:
Increase the Minimum Wage

Make all Gross Income Subject to Payroll Taxes

Lower Supply of Low Wage Job Seeker

 

The Good: 70 Years of Continuing Wage Growth
"Stability and achievements being cumulative
means young people of today will enjoy both past progress
 and their own contributions.
Source: US Economic Wellbeing

 

The Very Good
Many People are Moving Up the Income Ladder

 

 

Economists are rethinking the numbers on inequality.

 

Editor:

 


2. The Cause:
 The Ups, Downs and Adjustments of Capitalism

Germany and Japan Slowly Took Their Fair Share of Growth.
Then China and Great Recession Took More
.
CV-19? Source

 

 

Financial and Economic Crisis Hurt Workers

See Post WW 2 World Economic Normality

 


3. 21st Century, US Capitalism Adjusts Well Again

US Auto Industry Was First to Adjust!


 

US Manufacturing Wages Became More Competitive

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


 

 

 


One
Reason is Weak Unions

 

1950's, 60's and 70's Turmoil Returned
America to her Conservative Roots.

 

Both Political Parties Contributed

American Business Did What it Always Has Done. It Adjusted.

"Over the last few decades labor’s bargaining power fell, corporate taxes fell, tariffs fell, globalization increased, technology allowed for greater scale and lower marginal costs, anti-trust enforcement fell, and interest rates fell. These factors have produced the most pro-corporate environment in history."

Capitalism Outsourcing
It Maintain and then Increase Profit.

 #1 US Manufacturing moved South out of Northeast and Midwest.

#2 Manufacturing and Middle Skilled Work moved out of US.

#3 US Pressure caused Foreign Manufacturing to
 
move to US low cost locations helping wage growth.

# 4 China created jobs
assembling parts from other Asian countries.

#5 Jobs moving out of China to lower cost country.

#6 China increased wages.

#7 China began moving up the product value chain.

# 7 Subcontracted More to
save money by avoiding the cost of full time workers,
act quickly with flexibility, using specialists.

Middle-Skill Jobs Suffered

see Who Gets the Money?

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. Creative Destruction Hurt US Workers Most

   bridgewater.com/

 

US Workers Took the Biggest Hit

 Result: US Workers Get Smaller Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

Causes Are Numerous

mckinsey.com/

Editor's Nope: A 2016 proposal would have been mor generouse but it was blocked by a Texas Federal Court. Trump's rule went nt affect on 1/1/20.

Pay eligibility will vary depending on selected price index.
Most people select the index that helps their point of view.

Families Compensate by Having >1 worker.

 

 

 

See Reshoring Initiative report

How Restricting Skilled Immigration Could Spur Offshoring

Domestic Migration Is Driving Population Growth In U.S. Cities St Louis Fed
See
Looking at the Urban-Rural Divide in Economic Growth
Why Is St. Louis Growing More Slowly Than Expected?

Capitalism Goes to Work!

See Post WW 2 US Economic Normality     Post WW 2 World Economic Normality

The Process

Source: "Why Aren't More Men Working?"New York Times, 6/17/18

 


5. Unemployment Crisis




 

 

FEDS Help During Tough Times

FEDS Step in Big Time

 

Recommendations: Protect Workers from Federal and State Non-Compete Law

Encourage Union Membership

 

6. The Future of Work

Lawrence Summers 2015
"...the idea that you can just have better training
 and then there are all these jobs,
all these places where there are shortages and
we just need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."

" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs.
 If you help some people, you could help them get the jobs,
 but then someone else won't get the jobs. "

Listen to On Manufacturing Effort and Inequality audio

Source The Future of Work     
Jobs Leave With or Without Outsourcing

 
 

Large firms move high-skill jobs out of states with high personal taxes,
according to an analysis of big firms’ job postings, by 
J. Gao of Indiana U

At large firms, 20% to 50% of the total workforce often is outsourced,
according to staffing executives. 
Bank of America Corp., Verizon Communications Inc.,
Procter & Gamble Co. and FedEx Corp. have thousands of contractors each.
Source

At large employers, it is now common for building maintenance, security, kitchen,
laundry and custodial staff not to work directly for the company they report to.

Now the Trump administration has adopted a four-factor test
to assess whether an indirect employer is a joint employer that would bear
legal responsibility for violations of minimum-wage and overtime regulations.
This is a narrower standard for determining joint-employer status than the
practice that 
existed under the administration of President Barack Obama.
It expanded the responsibilities of indirect employers in January 2016.
The International Franchise Association (the largest organization representing
franchises worldwide) 
argues that the broader criteria previously in place
cost U.S. franchisees between 
$17 and $33 billion per year.  
bloomberg.com/opinion/


7.  What Will Happen

 

Source

 


 

Epilogue

8. If Only It Were So Simple

Executive Summary

1. There are few good paying jobs.

2. Selection process applies to all American workers.

3. Tighter Hiring standards eliminates too many.

4. Standards include age, education, health, credit, social status, religion, culture, race, ethnicity, …

5. Standards are discrimination and arbitrary, but there has to be a way of deciding.

6.  Whole working class suffers and that those at the bottom suffers most.

7. Networking, the most successful job strategy, is available to everyone.

" All America has been, more than anytime since the Great Depression,
subjected to a selection process that applies to all American workers.
As there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs, the standards for hiring keep getting tighter.
What standards you ask?
Age, education, health, credit, social status, religion, culture, race, ethnicity, … make up your own
.
Yes, all are discrimination, all are arbitrary;
but as there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs there has to be a way of deciding.
Universities do it, always have; there’s always been a selection process.
Even during the Great Depression , if you knew the right someone,
you could get a good job; meritocracy be damned.
It is not at all as simple as ‘whitey’ has to give ‘us’ some of what their getting;
it’s more that the whole working class is suffering and that those at the bottom are suffering the most.
And, this will continue unless major changes are made to the economic model."

Source: If Only It Were So Simple

9. John Mueller's 1995 statement concerning Retrospection Bias.
“... no matter how much better the present gets,
 the past gets better faster..."

Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in them:
they are always back there somewhere.”

See Decision 2020 Options to Improve Work
 

Education

1. Primary Education Worked For Many    But
2. Federal Education Involvement Analysis

3. Is College a Poor Economic Investment?

4. Is College Worth It?
5
. Making Education Investing Decisions
6.
Are College Marketing Efforts Useful?


1. Primary Education Worked For Many

Plato
"Do not train a child to learn by force of harshness;
 but direct them to it by what amused their minds
 so that you may be better able to discover with accuracy
 the peculiar bent of the genius of each."

"The most important thing about education is appetite."
Winston Churchill

 

Many Poor Do Not Stay Poor-Many Rich Do Not Stay Rich

 

Poor Education Test Scores Over-Hyped

Long Term Test Results Slightly Up as Tests Get Harder
See complete data for age 9, age 13, and age 17.

Trend in NAEP reading average scores

Trend in NAEP reading average scores for 9-, 13-, and 17-year-old students< - see complete data links below for full data in table format.

 

U.S. STEM Education is Competing Well
Compares Well Internationally 2007 vs. 2015   By 5/20/19
Measuring Innovation in Education 2019.
Note: All of the following results were calculated using TIMSS data.

4th grade
students used of computers when learning math?
 

U.S. rose    18 - 79%     OCED  42 - 51%o

science teachers
show experiments
half their lessons?
  
US rose 16 - 36 percent     OECD 13 - 35%

students perform
science experiments or investigations?

US rose 45 - 53%     OCED 33 - 46%

8th grade students
do math homework 2+ times  a week?
US fell 86 - 75%   OECD 56 - No Change

Incentives to recruit/retain STEM 8th math teachers?
US 7 - 6%     OECD 10 - 8%

Source: How US STEM practices compare internationally

Editor's Thoughts:
 
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a good thing or not.
  2. US policies and practices don't look all that different.
  3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously distinctive.
  4. Almost all students lose interest in math and science.
    Computers and experiments may delay this decision, but they also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

Homework may teach some to be more responsible,
but again it
also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

More money for teachers is usually good but
one of the best teachers I have observed since 1950
was, by almost all measures, a poor teacher.

  Advise 
Maximize a students reading ability.
    Teach a little practical math.
    Get out of the way.

But Some Need a Radically New Approach

Many Who Stopped Looking for Work
 Likely Didn't Finish HS.

COVID Made It Worse


 

 

 

Recommendation

Consider the Advice from Historical and Current Leaders

Adopt Individualized Curriculum

Improve Federal Education Grants

Please share!  Thanks Author/Editor WA


2. Federal Education Involvement Analysis

 


3 . Is College a Poor Economic Investment?

Lester Thurow
former dean of the MIT Sloan School of Management
"Education is a very lumpy investment where often there is little or no payoff from having a little bit more." 
 ..."There are big returns to the first years of education (the education where one gains literacy) and
big payoffs to the last years of education (a college or graduate degree where one distinguishes oneself from the pack)
but only small payoffs to those years of education that move the individual from
 somewhat below average to somewhat above average." 283 
Sources

 

Only Germany Does Not Use College as a Holding Pen


Lots More Graduates, Little Increase in Middle Income

Question: Why are college graduates hired?
Answer: "At least we know they are interested in a career."
 White-collar education for blue-collar work-WSJ, Austin Hufford

Explaining Low ROI:
#1 Few High Paying Jobs/Majors

 #2 Excess Supply in Low Paying Majors/Careers

< 1,9sizing: border-box;"> 41% More.
Traits Associated With Education are Still Rewarded
Hours Worked Change

Change in Average Earnings

Year 1988 2016      
       
bachelor’s degrees 1,872 2,009 7%

$56,262 to $65,86 Top of Range Earn 17% More.

H.S. diploma     <1%  
other workers little change  
Editor's Note: Interesting, but since the price level used to
adjust for the change in the value of money over time is not given,
I am not going to bet my life on this Earnings Data.

 Recommendations   Treat Student Loans as an Investment   See Fake News

4. Is College Still Worth It?

 Economist T. Cowen "...best students special, others should be motivated."

 It’s Complicated! Top HS Students Earn More Than Botton College Students

manhattan-institute.org/high-school-college-wage-gap 

Lead Economist William Emmons,
Policy Analyst A H Kent and Lead Analyst L. Ricketts -

 

 

Ability, Major, and Ambition Determines Earnings
Top AA Earners Earn More Than Bottom Half of Bachelor's Graduates
More Data Career Guidance       Lifetime Earnings

Pay
%

Associate's
Starting Pay

Bachelor's
 Starting Pay

   Job Type

Bachelor's Premium With 10 Years Experience

10th

$21,000   

"> $25,400

Admin.Assist.

10% 4%

25th

$26,700   

$32,900

Dental Hygienist

9% 5%

50th

$35,100   

$43,200

Registered Nurse

4% 6%

75th

$46,700  

$56,900

Construction Manager

17% 19%

90th

$61,600  

$73,800

Inside Sales Rep.

15% 24%

 

5. Making
Education Investment Decisions

Is College Always The Answer Video
from the St Louis Fed
01 February 2020

Source: Manhattan Institute

 

 

 

 

For Many It's About the Money


 

Economic Success Takes More Than a Piece of Paper

 
 


Recommendation:    Base Graduate School Loans on ROI and Merit

 

6. Are College Marketing Efforts Useful?



Source

The Merit Aid-Illusion


Uncle Sam is Calling in His Chips.
 

Collections of delinquent student loans

See Interesting Thoughts Concerning Education

 

Recommendation: Require colleges to report
graduation rates, loan delinquency rates and earnings by major.

Editor's Comments:

Top University Admissions not be "the" top education issue.

1. Selective Colleges Help the Poor and the Wealthy Students

See Top Universities Make a Difference?

For Most College Students, It’s What You Study Not Where You Study

 

Top charts of 2019 clarify economic priorities for 2020
 

How we education average students is a much more important issue.

Business is Helping
Manufacturers to spend $26.2 billion
 on 'upskilling' in 2020
to attract and keep workers

They will take most of the best candidates, many will have degrees.
But given the vast number, something else is needed,

See Improving American Education

See Decision 2020 Education

Please share!  Thanks Author/Editor

Health and Safety

CV-19 News     Health Is a Mixed Bag      Safety is Much Better BUT
 

CV-19 News You Should Know!
For Only Bad News Watch CNN

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University said while
 he’s hopeful the United States will experience a similarly mild flu season,  it’s hard to predict.

Australian notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza

Source: Australian Department of Health


Breaking News: Alarmist vs. Minimalists

Alarmist Epidemiologists  Predict Doom
 "We are back to square one."

 

Minimalists Data Scientists Predict
"Virus is burning itself out."

Viral Impacts Explained - The PANDA Pandemic Data & Analytics Group 72 min video
Nobel Prize Winner
Michael Levitt explains this Viral Lockdown@MLevitt NP2013

 

Health Is a Mixed Bag

Teenagers are Healthier

 

Fewer Divorces Helps

Teens More Responsible

See Improving Health

 

But We Still Have Work to Do!

Source

 

Spending is High

 

See A decade in review: The surprisingly good news about American family life — for kids

Safety is Much Better BUT

Children are Safer
Autos are Much Safer

 

 

3,037 Fewer Teenage Fatalities
from Injuries Occurred in 2018.

 

See Data Since 1990s Peak

 

Everyone is Safer 

 

But School Shootings Up
 Fatalities Up to 55 in 2018

Drugs UP

Editorial

Does Media Create Paranoid About Terrorist Attacks?

CDC Averages Annual Cause of US Deaths

0.0012% chance of dying in a mass shooting

27 mass shootings
15,000 murders
  38,000 automobile accidents
 3500 text while driving teens

Source

Is there a more efficient way to help children?

Sadly, about 700 women die each year in the United States
from pregnancy or delivery complications.

 

About CV-19?
 

Poverty
Prelude:

1. The Politics      2. Who Benefits Most    3. How do Our Poor Live    4. Good and Bad News

Source

We Spend a Lot on the Poor

US Poor Live Better Than Most
Why?  150 Years of Federal Assistance to Agriculture Lowered Prices.

This Little bit of Socialism Paid Huge Dividends

Most US Poor Grow Wealth

 

 

1. The Politics

Survey #2
Improving Voter Knowledge?
from Just Facts

Do Voters Know Most People Work?

Safety Net is Ignored

 

 

2. Who Benefits Most?

Much Goes to Elderly and Children

Especially Poor Children

We Pull  Millions from Poverty

We Still Have Work to Do

 

3. How Do Our Poor Live?

Our Poor Spend More Than They Earn


Source

Our Poor are Living Better


Read the full Report

Better than the World's Average Person

 

Source

One Reason is Our Poor Spend Less on Food Because
 150 Years of Federal Assistance to Agriculture Lowered Prices.

This Little bit of Socialism Paid Huge Dividends

 

Most Poor Americans Accumulate Wealth

 

Editor's Notes:

Measuring economic Wellbeing is difficult.

U.S. Poverty Rate is Fake News Why?

 

 

4. Good and Bad News

1. Elderly Wealth Inequality Has Disappeared

2. Wealth inequality has not increased
 in the last three decades when Social Security is accounted for.

Discounted Social Security
wealth increased from $5.6 trillion in 1989 to over $42.0 trillion in 2016.

This 58% is Ignored
 When included for the lower 90%, much wealth inequality disappears!

 

 Highlights of the New 2018 Census Bureau

3. The Good

The Official Poverty Measure fell to 11.8%, the lowest since 11.7% in 2001.
This was the end of the 1990s expansion, and before that, not since the late 1960s.

This data ignores noncash benefits such as SNAP, health benefits, and subsidized housing.
Such benefits have grown 16 times faster than anti-poverty benefits counted as income.

Full-time, full-year workers poverty rate was 2.3% percent in 2018.
For families headed by married couples it, was 4.7%.

For those aged 18 to 64 who did not work it, was 29.7%.
For those headed by a single female it, was 24.9%.ety net benefits are excluded.

    Female full-time, full-year median real earnings rose 40% since the 1970s..
    Male full-time, full-year real median earnings were flat.

See Annual Report on U.S. Consumption Poverty: 2018

5. During Recessions, Governments Help More

The Bad

Adults over age 25 without a high school diploma poverty rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%.

The South high poverty rate of 13.6% was the only region not to decline.

Primary Sources Official Poverty Measure 

 

Editorial
The Congressional Budget Committee
should audit economic statistics and report those that misrepresent wellbeing.

Question:
  Should Poverty Rate be Renamed the Poverty Eligibility Rate?
Learn About Poverty Demographics    The Working Poor
See Decision 2020
Poverty Considerations

See Political Economy Fake News
 

Taxes

1. Who Pays What   2. Taxes and the Debt   3. Changing Who Pays What   4. More Questions Answered

1. Who Pays What

Tax Rates Went Down

Working People, Not Corporations, Pay Most

Presidential Sanction For Corporate Taxes Avoided
Limit "enforceability of private rights," and "co-opting out of local law."
Example:
Income  sustainability not checked, mortgage may not be enforceable.
 Source: Columbia Law School Professor Katharina Pistor

Corporations Make Lots of Money

 

 

2. Taxes and the Debt

 

3. Changing Who Pays What

Does the Very Top Need to Help More?

Payroll Taxes Hit Workers Hard

 

Wealth Creation Went to Older Americans


A Source of Federal Revenue?

Source

IRS Budget Cuts Resulted in
 a $34.3 Billion Loss of Large Firm Tax Revenue.


Why isn't the IRS on commission?


Here is Another Job for the CBO!


Causes:
Estate tax of 40% too easily avoided and married couple exemption
is $23.2 million.
Money easily moved to avoid taxed

Solution:

Replace estate tax with an inheritance tax subject to income and payroll tax.
Alternative A
Lifetime exemption: $500,000
Affected: 0.18%
Ten-year revenue estimate:
$1.4 trillion

Alternative B
Lifetime exemption: $2.5 million
Affected: .02%

Ten year revenue estimate $340 billion

Alternative C
C
losing many tax-planning loopholes adding revenue to alternatives A
Source

 

Editor's Note:
US Companies Bring Home 665-billion Tax Haven Cash

Trump's Tax cut makes avoiding taxes easier for billionaires.
 'The tax cuts on corporate profits earned offshore —
 from 35 percent to a one-time rate of 15.5 percent on cash and 8 percent on other assets —
 encouraged companies to bring it home.
By donating stock or putting stock into a trust, income tax avoidance will be easier.

"Much of the money brought home went to a stock buybacks reported a  Federal Reserve study. Buyback activity hit a record $1.1 trillion last year and could surpass that level this year."

 

More Questions Answered

Prelude : Economic Concerns

A. Politics in Control

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

C. Who Cheats and How

D. Tax Where the Money Is

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

F. Would Rich Pay?

 

Federal Debt

1. To Spend or Not to Spend      
2. A Tale of Two Debts
3. To Pay or Not to Pay, That is the Question

 

2. A Tale of Two Debts

Two Kinds of Federal Debt
1. Bonds/Notes pay interest to owners. 
2. Dollars pay no interest.
Transactions only occur in dollars which the FED prints as needed.

You Will Get Your FED Retirement Check.
It's value adjusts for inflation
What is worth will be based on what economy can produce.
 

States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen.
You Might Not Get Your State Retirement. 

But, Fed Debt Has Inflation, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Risk.

Inflation usually follows printing too many dollars.

The Economics of Debt
Debt increases demand.
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
Recently, World Production Oversupply has Kept Inflation Low.

The Political Economy of Debt
By incurring debt states
trade an element of sovereignty – ability to the electorate’s demands
for spending excepted to the political minefield of raising taxes.
Beginning before WW1,the US has steadily gained the economic clout
to maintain her economic sovereignty.

 

A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises.

"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is this: when it comes to financial crises, we're not in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces. Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable. Runaway private debt and the resulting overcapacity
does a better job than any other variable in explaining and predicting financial crises.
It is our job to heed those danger signs."

Source: Symposia Historical Evolution Money and Debt
 
(Vague 2019, p. ix)
 Brief History of Doom (INET) has concise data summary
Video 14 min.

Editor's Note: Public Debt Concerns are Not Financial.
Who receives the money and what is bought concerns many.

 

 

3. Out of Control, Pay It

 

U.S. Debt: Is It the Calm Before the Storm?
podcast:
knowledge@Wharton

BUT
Interest Payments Are Low

FED Printing Money Could Cause Inflation
Causing Higher Interest Rates and More Taxes.

Historically, Inflation/Growth Has Lowered Relative Debt

Postscript: Historically, We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War
2. The Civil War
3. WW 1

4. Great Depression Poverty
5. WW 2
6. War on Poverty
7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse

Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters Who Vote for Incumbents

Historically, the U.S. Has Succeeded by Using Inflation
and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.

People loved dot-coms, until they didn’t.
They loved credit default swaps, until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.

“When the music stops
for expanding liquidity, things will be complicated."
Chuck Prince on debt-fueled private equity deals before
 the Financial Crisis.

 

Many will say "who cares" because they believe in Modern Monetary Policy


US Government

Prologue
From the
utopian "Yankeedom" to
 the
conservative "Greater Appalachia" and
liberal the "Left Coast,"

understanding these cultures sheds an interesting light
 on
America's political and cultural divides.  American Nations

Source

 

 

 

Selected Countries by value

Inefficient or Efficient  World Leader

China - $952.6 billion - 26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture

United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% in farming
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% in farming
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% in farming
France - $55.6 billion - 2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion --2.57% employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion -4.31% employed in agriculture

High Prices: Unintended Consequences of Government Support

Editor's Question:
 Is Government most socialist program
agriculture, health care, education or is in Oil?

 
 

 

Was the $6.4 Trillion Spent on Terror a Good a Decision?

Source
Question: Rather than just leaving Syria,
should Trump have proposed Europe take it over by 6/30/20.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But

 

 

See Should the Federal Debt be Paid  from class notes I first wrote in 1966.
 

Government Spending Grew
17.5% to 21.5% of GDP

People Got More, Defense Got Less

 

Everyone Got More
Some Got More Than Others
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!

An example of the unintended consequences of government support is increased Social Security benefits paralleled the decrease in the personal savings rate. Government Deficits Fund Private Savings.

 

Government Spends About 21% of GDP

Learn About

Who What, Where, When and
Why We Borrow

See Decision 2020
Government  Considerations

Editorials: Is Median Wealth Understated?

 

Republic: Government of "the" people.

Democracy: Direct -people chose those who govern
Indirect-people choose those who choose those who govern.

The Majority rules and minority rights must be protected.

Limits on Democracy and Majority Rule
1. All are Guaranteed Individual Rights
2. Constitutional protects minority from majority.
3. Supreme Court manages evolving constitution.

See Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic   Politics in America
How Democracies Die 4 min video

 

Editorial

1. Managing a Democratic Federalist Republic Politics is difficult.
As a centrist, I do not want an extremist US President.

The lack of Institutional forbearance
 by a political party is the under utilization of it's power.
Accepting another party's legitimacy means not always
 follow the letter of the law.
 Rejection is 
How Democracies Die.

As a centrist, a healer like
 Michael Bloomberg is required.

2. Politics Changed

Historically, we elect politicians who promised to fix.
Now,
we elect politicians who promise to dismantle.
With Both, we required
no alternative.
Think
 Arab Spring 2010
Brexit 2016
America's Health Care 2016 to
?

Source Unusual Uncertainty: The World in 2020 and Beyond"
 Mohamed El-Erian Interview Video

 

1. Middle Class Enjoys Steady Economic Gains?

Analysis: American capitalism has been too successful.
America's Democracy-not so much!  

Government spent more, took in less.
 

Concerns: Low Social Mobility Higher Income Inequality

2 Which Sacrifice?

Energy

Energy Demand Realties
1. Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy
2. A 2% decline in the hydrocarbon share of world energy use
    entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on
    alternatives.
3. When the 3rd world’s poor increase energy use to a third of
    Europe’s, energy use global demand increase by twice
    America’s total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in electric vehicles to 400 million by 2040
    would displace 5% of global oil demand.
14. Batteries to store two-day’s of U.S. electricity demand
      would require 1,000 years of production by world’s
      biggest battery factor.

Realities About Energy Economics

17. Over 30 years Investing $1 million returns:
      solar or wind produces  40 million and 55 million kWh
      shale produces 300 million kWh from natural gas

19. It costs <$0.50 to store a barrel of oil/natural gas and
      $200 to store the equivalent energy in batteries.
25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of natural
       gas & coal, but electric rates rose 20% since 2008
       because of subsidies for solar/wind
.

Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute,
and author of Work in the Age of Robots by Encounter Books.

See Decoupling-Debunked  

 

Energy Physics Realities
26. Transforming the energy economy is not like putting a
       few people on the moon, it's like permanently putting all
       of humanity on the moon.
28. If solar power could be scaled like computer-tech,
       a postage-stamp size solar array would power
       the Empire State Building.
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery the size of a
      book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner to Asia.
31. Physics limit for solar cells (the Shockley-Queisser limit)
      is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into
      electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech.
      Physics limits for wind turbines (Betz limit) are
      a max capture of 60% of energy in moving air;
      commercial turbines achieve 45%.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined, moved and
       processed for every pound of battery fabricated.
39. A battery-centric grid and car world means mining
       gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper,
       nickel, graphite, rare earths,
       cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal
       both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete.
40. China dominates global battery production with its grid
       70% coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese batteries will
       create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing
       oil-burning engines.
Source: Inconvenient Energy Realities

Trump's Sacrifice is Cold War with China

He's in Charge   Source

Trump's China Attack Requires More Military Spending

Best Navy in Asia-Japan

The best navy in Asia has 114 warships and 45,800 volunteer personnel. It's fleet has fast, powerful destroyers, thoroughly modern diesel-electric attack submarines, and amphibious ships that can haul tanks and other ground forces. It can hunt submarines, square off against invasion fleets, and shoot down enemy ballistic missiles. Despite all of that firepower, this is not in fact a navy at all, but an armed cohort of civil servants.

Japan Approves Record Defense Budget of 5.3 Trillion Yen ..

Learn About:

Grand Strategy of Western Leaders
China, Russia, and U.S. Geopolitical Rivals? 
Trump's New Geopolitical Era

Is Trump's Trade War a Geopolitical War?

Like the Cold War, Winning Will Sacrifice Required Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass on China Trade Deal
Both agree a move to confrontational capitalism is warranted.

Tom Friedman agrees on the seriousness of the issues.

Parag Khanna Google’s
pulling Huawei's Android  license is 'intimately connected' to US-China trade war.

See Trump’s Foreign Policy Is No Longer Unpredictably

Editor's Notes:
1. Because Trump's policy smears our foreign policy establishment,
bias concerning Trump's Foreign Policy  is possible.
Read sources for opinions. Of course Nixon ignored FP establishment.

2. Trump is much like Reagan. Both knew little theory and few statistics.
Reagan belied that capitalism was just better than Communism.
This led to conflicted Russian relations as he called them and evil empire while getting along with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.

Questions:
Why did the Americans know so little about Russia's economic chaos? Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear?
Is Trump being buddies with Putin an attempt
at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?

Some US Military Spending Protects Europe
But Trump Wants to
Go-It-Alone

Will Trump let them organize.
Where were Obama, Bush, Clinton?

 

Fewer Europeans Sacrifice

Is it time for Germany and France
 to Put Up or Shut Up?

 

 

China's Economic Miracle in Context
source

China Winning Strategy

Reform Eras Income Growth

3. Forgiving Student Loans?
Millennials Aren’t Drowning
in Student Debt

Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt  Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers  accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly payments of less than $200). B, Akers, Manhattan Inst

The surprising role of high-income families
 in student debt trends

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Benefits from Forgiving Student Debts
Student receiving loan relief reduced their use of
credit cards resulting in debt reduction by 26%.
They were 11% less likely to default on other accounts. Geographical mobility increased, more changed jobs, and income increased by about $3000 over a three year.
NBER Working Paper No. 25810. 6/19
M. Di Maggio, A. Kalda, V. Yao  purchase  $5

4. A Need for Socialism?

Government Economic Involvement began with Hamiltonian Economics
which centering  on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's presidency. Soon on politicians battled minimal state liberalism (today's conservatism) and active state liberalism (today's liberalism). Public good expansion began in Ernst in the  20th century. Today Conservatives and Progressives do battle to control federal spending.

Are Americans Better Off than they were a Decade or Two-Ago B. Bernanke

A wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might be ruled unconstitutional .  It would be simpler to increase in tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and gift taxes.

US Has a Lot More Income, Spend a little more on Safety Net

table1

Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing. The French take long vacations and retire earlier, and so they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States),  presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:

Charles Jones and Peter Klenow proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working time. less is better life expectancy more is better and inequality less is better.

 

Europe is More Socialistic
in Her Approach to Unemployment.

 

 

Will COVID Move US Toward European Unemployment Approach

Do We Have Enough Socialism?

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems

Concerns

Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same,
high income earners pay most

Required additional
health care cost
difficult for many

Longer life, especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care, will increases cost. Free cases poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles currently not acceptable to electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See  Table 1 and  Table 3 Deficit concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic success..
Solution just time or later retirement but politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations Table 2

Tax payers don't appreciate
 their benefit (entitlements?)

 

Solution of decreasing them by a third is unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.

Source: Entitlements Require Political Action
 

The Evolution of Socialism
8/14/20

1) Early 20th Century
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.

This Planned Utopian, Totalitarian System Failed
 

2) Post WW 2
Government controls key industries
 such as utilities, transportation
 and communications.

Classic socialism dominated after World War II
 and still is believed by many older Americans.

3) Current Reality
US has Mixed Economy
Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health insurance, retirement provisions, and
access to less expensive higher education.
This doesn't replace capitalism, it makes it more humane,
 egalitarian, and more protective.

 

 


4. Scandinavian Nordic model,
popularized by Democrat Sander, includes a comprehensive welfare state and multi-level collective bargaining, with a high percentage of the workforce unionized, while being based on the economic foundations of free market capitalism.

5. Biden want to add to Our Safety Net
a little capitalism in our mixed economy.

A Breakdown of the Biden Policy Platform: Five Key Takeaways

Biden is proposing large public investments over the next 10 years.

Biden is also proposing a large expansion of health care, although it’s much smaller than progressive proposals like Medicare for All, and it’s offset by his drug savings plan.

The Biden platform would increase spending by $5.37 trillion over the next decade.

The Biden tax plan would raise $3.375 trillion over 10 years, with 80% of the new revenue coming from the top 1% of households by income.

But in the long run, by 2050, the Biden platform would reduce the federal debt by 6.1% and boost GDP by 0.8%.

6. Many associate socialism with totalitarian Communism
which was poor practices and completely failed in the Soviet Union.

See Socialism A Concise History  Socialism-What You Should Know About

2) Paul Krugman Agrees With Our
More Socialist Young People

"On fiscal and economic responsibility:

Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times.

 

How the Law Creates Wealth and Inequality

Globalization has evolved the legal sphere of private actors
who can now pick and choose from legal systems of
England, New York state, and for corporate law you can add Delaware.
The states is deeply involved in the creation of legal privilege at every level of all markets. How  private parties use the coercive power to organize their private affairs and bank on enforceability is instrumental to understanding the financial crisis.
Protection of a property rights had been socialized. 
Think late 20th century bank bailouts. 

Source: The Code of Capital  from K. Pistor

Solution: Replace the easily avoided estate tax with an inheritance tax
subject to income and payroll tax.

Alternative A Lifetime exemption: 
$500,000  Affected: 0.18%
Ten-year revenue estimate:
$1.4 trillion

Alternative B  Lifetime exemption: $2.5 million  Affected:  .02%
Ten year revenue estimate $340 billion

Alternative C Closing many tax-planning loopholes adding revenue to alternatives A

 

5. Know the Enemy:
 Voter Attitudes Toward the Enemy and Themselves
Survey of 1000 Voters
  

 

Editor's Thoughts:

Democrats should not expect Republicans to stand aside
while no effort is made to measure the cost effectiveness of our safety net.

Republicans should not expect Democrats to stand aside
 while no effort is made to solve problems affecting many people.

 

Could Debate Explore Difficult Issues

Questionnaire Stated

Response by Party

   

Obama Supports Single-Payer Healthcare

Democrats 82%       Republicans 16%

Trump Supports Single-Payer Healthcare

Democrats 46%       Republicans 44%

Data Source: #FactsfromOpen (15 of 100)
Provided by textbooksfree.org/
Topic: What You Should Know About Election_2020_Economic_Questions 9/19/20

 

6. Understanding Issues Changed Attitudes!

 

 

Consider Reality When Voting Tax Policies

source washingtonpost.com/

Editor: Will Investigate When Candidates are Determined.

 

Asian Team Polluting Team Beating the West

See Decision 2020
Considerations and Recommendations

Socialism is the Latest Battle

Does Slow USA Population Growth,
Like Europe, Mean Geopolitical Dependence?

Population Change 1790-2020
and the Projected Change in Congressional Representation

Learn More About 2020 Election

Conservatism vs. Progressivism  
Election of 1795 Begins the Battle
Determining Political Power and "We the People"

Geopolitics
Trump's Grade 8/19 Report

Economic myths Democrats peddled at debate

 Ramesh Ponnuru | Bloomberg Opinion

 

The Rise and Fall of 20th Civility

Adolph Ochs bought the NYT in 1898.
He responded to his many Yellow Journalism competitors with

"All The News That's Fit To Print."
Result was more congenial media for about 60 years.

Why has Civility Declined, Animosity band Polarity Increased

 1. Did Supreme Court Cause the Fall?   2. Has Political Control Affected Civility?

3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute?   4. The Telecommunication Act of 1986

5. Citizens United v. FEC   6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public   7. Banning Earmarks in 2011
 

 1. Did Supreme Court Cause the Fall?
Court Allowed State Redistricting Plans, Schools Integration/busing/housing, Abortion
Trouble began when Federal efforts went beyond stopping Jim Crow laws.
 

2. Has Political Control Affected Civility?
Political Parties Began to polarize
when FDR kept control
of the Democratic Party by excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.
Northern Democrats
began catering to blacks.
LBJ sealed the change
with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
Roe v. Wade a
dded fuel to the fire.
South
became Republican, Coasts became Democratic.
Reagan
sealed the breach and political polarity intensified.

State Management Differs With Single Party Control

 

Please Share

3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute?

The 1987 Communication Industry Fairness Doctrine was eliminated.
Radio Stations were no longer required to present contrasting views.
Rush Limbaugh, who had popularized conservative talk radio, now had fewer restrictions.
Talk Radio and Identity Politics Flourished.
Conservative and Liberal Polarization Proliferate
 

 

4. Telecommunications Act of 1996
allowed multi-station company ownership and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications

 (now 
iHeart Media owned over 800 US radio stations
and
  Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.
[3] 
 

5. Citizens United v. FEC 
Allowed Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship diversified,
 which supported both intended and unintended
Fake News.


6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public

Mohamed Ali practically invented this 1960's genre
 as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
 which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.

Larry Bird
and others soon followed.


7. Banning Earmarks in 2011
increased polarization as political cooperating to
 “bring home the bacon” ended.

See Avoiding Effects Of Groupthink


Anxiety Caused Populism

Americans are at each other’s throats. Here is one way out.
Inspired by this Amanda Ripley Washington Post Opinion 12/20/19  

High conflict is irresolvable and will continue even when the associated problems are solvable.
Social Psychologist Peter T. Coleman's book,
The Five Percent
, states that about 1 in every 20 conflicts are this way.  
“Once we are drawn in, they take control,”
 They enrage, trap frustrate, drain our energy/critical resources, and will never go away.

A 2017 survey of 1,000 Americans found 40 percent of both Republicans
and Democrats thought the other party was downright evil.
Five to 15 percent of both parties would support some level of violence
against their political opponents.
A minority of ‘... haters’ can have more influence than a majority
 of non-haters 
Halperin writes in his book Emotions in Conflict.

In high conflict, our brains behave differently.
Fear, anger and hatred rule.
Sometimes anger can be useful.
It can support reconciliation, taking risks in peace talks...
Hatred assumes the enemy is unchangeable, irredeemable, and unimprovable.
They must be annihilate. 

We can get the minority of haters to stop hating because
a peace message lowers Americas’ support for political violence.
After Trump
tweeted
condemnation for the Charlottesville racist violence,
violence support dropped for partisan voters.
Joe Biden's similar peace
message condemning an Antifa attack
on a conservative journalist also lowered support for such violence.

How to Reset a Mind Set
An ingrained negativity bias leads to a perpetual sense of crisis,
a feeling that things are getting worse—even when things are getting better.
Source:
The Wall Street Journal

Epilog
I recently began adding political economy studies to Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode to the post WW 1 United States.

Anxiety increased when blacks increased their economic and political power.
They received more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.

White Christian middle class men and women were no longer the center of society.

Educators had long been acting as if the normal curve did not apply to academic education.
It would be the great equalizer and solve most issues.
They were wrong. This failure added to our anxiety.

Then the Great Recession created many hardships in rural areas and the Rust Belt.
Government efforts helped few-mainly
ambitious individual who had move to urban areas.

Equal educational opportunities were not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and nurture were not equally distributed.

Education
Change was needed.

Special blame goes to the politicians, economists and other professionals.
Economic success and political stability from 1980-2000 fostered technocrats control.
Too often technocrats provided inadequate, bias Information that was not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the real
Fake News.
It is more dangerous than the fake news coming from lies,

once called
Yellow Journalism and Propaganda.

The Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed by the Reagan Revolution and then by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on many middle class white Christians.
 Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back to the beginning,
to their Great Society/ Roe v Wade animosity.
Trump's election signified a new
Populism.
 It is much like our other
20th Century Populism Episodes.

Democracy is supposed to be troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving
populist issues to Millennials
who may take control during what some consider a
Fourth Turning.
source.

See Can We Talk or is Civil Discourse Dead


Socialism vs. Capitalism

1. Economic Systems Attempt to Solve "the" Scarcity Problem  

2. A Brief History of Political Economy     3. The Choices Markets vs. Authoritarians

4. Analysis     5. Political Economy Today

1. Economic Systems Attempt to Solve "the" Scarcity Problem

See Neoliberal    Populism is not mob rule-Thomas-Frank

 

3. The Choices: Markets vs. Authoritarians

Pure Socialism and Capitalism Lost to Mixed Economies

See The Code of Capital: How the Law Creates Wealth and Inequality      The Implosion of Neoliberalism

4. Analysis

Abolishing Greed and State Minimization fantasies aside,
the two systems have more or less merged.

The Soviets managed most civil servants with terror.

Capitalists and socialists both accept private investment.
Both expect economic growth and more taxes paid.
Both capitalism and social democracy imposed taxes to cushion crisis dislocations.

Very Socialist Sweden's democratic process manages the
desire for increased social benefits with the need to maximize
 production resulting from private capital investment.

 

5. Political Economy Today

 

 

The Economist Magazine

 

 

Voter Unhappy With Both Have Unhappy Voters

Regardless of system, paying taxes is hated and receiving benefits loved.
Political system decides who pays taxes and politicians pander to voters.

Politician differ on taxes and purpose but  fearing anarchy, must balance the system.
As a result, modern capitalism and social democracy distinctions are minimal.

Democratic socialism now a Democratic Party consideration.

Why?

Donald Trump won the votes of a dissatisfied industrial workforce.
The Democrats had mistakenly replaced a New Deal cohort with many cohorts.
Their  current Mixes Economy approach to meeting cohort needs will
determine their 2020 convention winner.
 

Discussion of socialism indicates a commitment to unspecified radical change.
But the massive convergence between French Revolution socialists and capitalism in the 19th and 20th century means there is little economic system change available.

The debate is functionally archaic

 

A Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House of Representatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House
of Representatives Foreign influence on Domestic Politics
Click to enlarge cartoon.
 

   

A Big Problem

The US Middle Group is Smaller But Earns More

Middle Has Savings But It is Not Counted as Wealth

Conservatives Say Any Increase in Taxes
Will Slow Growth and Progress

Recent Economic System Development

Socialism was a moral movement of intellectuals who loathed inequality, despised the intellectual shallowness of the rich, and sought to bring life to their visions.

Capitalism is not especially intellectual or moral, it is a reality of the industrial revolution.

Socialist imagined a socialist utopian system. Socialist believe political equality requires wealth equality. Production is for the common good.

Some felt private control of investment flawed capitalism as wealth creation went  to the rich who reinvesting for their highest capital return. This meant that low return of social goods were neglected.  Socialist believe this limited human possibilities.

The public, using a democratic process, controls the state. States should determine investment goals and resulting strategy. This is accomplished  by controlling property and investment capital. Production will be for the common good and not for state officials.

 

Classical Socialism
has collective ownership of economic factors of production and state management of equally distributed resulting production.

Recent Application
Democratic Socialism
developed after WW in war torn  Western Europe. The key characteristics were public ownership of key transportation and communication industries. It also has showed increased concerns and spent additional resources to help the disadvantaged.

Note: Neoliberal economics was used by England's Margaret Thatcher in 1979  to dismantled England's brand of Socialism. She was followed, in much of Europe. In 1981, President Ronald Reagan followed her policies to reverse the social and regulatory concessions being won, often over the object of the Supreme Court. The expensive socialist programs of SS Medicare/Medicate and tax-expenditures were not only not touched- they were expanded. 

 

Classical Capitalism
has
individual ownership of economic factors of production
with
free competitive markets distribution of resulting production.

Recent Application
Mixed Economy  developed in the United States in the late 19th century. Being a Republic, the people decided the economic the distribution of wealth.
Phase 1 had the people slowly took more control value created  by demanding health, safety and wage concession from Gilded Age capitalists. 
Phase 2 was a response to the Great Depression. FDR forced a public/private partnership to help the unemployed-farmers, began the regulation of banking-finance, and created a safety net system led by social security.
Phase 3 had LBJ adding to Medicare and Medicaid.
Neoliberal economists led the fight to remove many the mixed economy regulations designed to limit middle class suffering and they also cut back on safety net programs. These attempts failed and the Great Recession may begin a new phase.

Note: 19th Century Capitalism  wealth was managed by owners wanting the highest capital return. They neglected the low return of social goods.  Democratic Socialist believe this limited human possibilities.

Democratic Socialism Will Soon Replace Capitalism

 

Is More Federalism "the" Answer?

Caught Between Two Systems.
Federalism and Capitalism Want Local Control
Socialism Wants Federal Bailout!

 

21st Century Terror
1. Terror in the West     2. U.S. Homegrown Terror     3. 9/11/01 Era of Fear #4
 

 European Homegrown Terror Decreased

 

 

U.S. Homegrown Terror 

Motives Varied

1984 San Ysidro Lone government/humanity

1986 Edmond post office work related

1991 Luby's shooting Hispanics, Gay, Women issues

1999 Columbine HS no obvious motive

2007 Blacksburg mental/physical issues

 


2007 Binghamton NY self image/career issues

2009 Fort Hood career issues

2012 Sandy  Hook obsession with mass murders

2015 San Bernardino inspired by Islamic terrorists

2016 Orlando Nightclub many unrelated issues

homegrown-terrorists -were-almost-all-right-wing

 

Sources wished

 

9/11/01 the 4th Era of Fear
Suddenly Our Invulnerable Nation Felt Dramatically Unsafe

See Four Terror Episodes Since 1900

Sources:  economic wellbeing    David Brooks

Learn More About  Terror

 

Fake News

Unintended
When Professionals Provide Inadequate, Bias Information. It is Worse Than

Intended
A Modern Name for Yellow Journalism
and Propaganda,
provided Fodder for Media, Politicians Think-tanks.

Recognizing Unbiased News
Look for a date, author, data source, logical facts, internet domain, writing style...

Fake News Warning # 1 Claiming Trumpisms are Lies
 

The Bottom Line

1. Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

2. The Cycles of Capitalism

3. Still Voters Want More

4. Who Gets the Money?


1. Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

A. WW 1 Began Middle Class Wealth Accumulation in England

 

Source author has a different interpretation of data.
UK's Hidden Wealth indicates a smaller drop for those at the very top.
Wealth should include government required insurance.

B. U.S. Wealth Accumulation Began Earlier


Log Scale link


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C. US Growth Continues to Continue

D. Consumption Gets Most Growth

 

E. Our Consumer Driven Society

 

2. The Cycles of Capitalism

A. Shorter Recession, Longer Expansions

 

B. Great Recession Temporally Slowed Growth

 

 
     
 

3. Still Voters Want More

 

See Fake News  

Editor's Note:

Please Share!

 
 
 

4.

The Good

Source: Is The Narrative On Worker Pay Accurate?

 

 

 The Bad

Difference Could Get Even Larger

See Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis and  Unchecked Power

c

American Enterprise Institute

 

Retiree Data:


 

U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015
 

 

 

   

 

 

Crime is Down

Source

Few Believe It!

Source

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility    

Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism   Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line    

 6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Poverty Demographics

Poorer States Get Most Federal Help

Note: This does not say "Most Children are poor."

Is Poverty a Condition or a Position?

Growing up in a rural 1950's Massachusetts Observations

Conditions
Elderly
lived with their children, few had health insurance or much income.

Poor Families lived in older house at the end of a dirt road.

Poor Children were skinny, often dirty, didn't finish HS,
 pooped around and then went into military, found a trade or pumped gas.

Almost no one had air conditioning.

Position
Almost all benefited economically after WW 2 but
those in the bottom quintile were economically less well-off.

 

Retired in Rural 2003 Central Florida Observations

Conditions
Elderly
live on their own with Medicare and improved SS.
Poor families lived in older lowland house or trailers.
Poor Children, obesity a problem, most finish HS, try college,
go into one of many services, industry and live at home.

Position
Poverty Rate Stuck, which ignores the safety net, is stuck at 15%.
 Liberals misuse poverty data and Conservatives despise safety net.

 


Some Feel Rich Have Too Much of Our Wealth

Wealth of Lower Income Cohorts should Includes
Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and Help from Friends and Family.

 

Elderly and Children Receive Substantial Assistance

The Working Poor

   

Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net

Working Means Fewer Benefits

See Little Help from 2nd Worker  

States Determine When Income is Too High to Receive a Benefit
Family Size 100% 133% 138% 250%
1 $12,140 $16,146 $16,753 $30,350 $48,560
2 $16,460 $21,892 $22,715 $41,150 $65,840
3 $20,780 $27,637 $28,676 $51,950 $83,120
4 $25,100 $33,383 $34,638 $62,750 $100,400
5 $29,420 $39,129 $40,600 $73,550 $117,680
6 $33,470 $44,515 $46,189 $84,350 $133,880
7 $38,070 $50,633 $52,537 $95,150 $152,280
8 $42,380 $56,365 $58,484 $105,950 $169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320 for each additional person. Note: Eligibility for premium tax credits in coverage year 2019 is based on poverty guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty line.
mm

Few Real Poor Work

 

Source

 

 

 


Education
Work
Health
Safety
Poverty
Civility
Terror
Taxes
Debt
Government

Geopolitics
Fake News
Bottom Line

2020 Election
Decision
2020

Have FED's Improved Education?

Prelude:
"It does not matter how slowly you go
as long as you don't stop."
Confucius
Source1: Historical Leaders Education Observations
P. Drucker Emphasize what learners do well.
Source:
Advise from Recent Leaders

 

    "Last week, the Trump administration released its 2021 budget request which would cut Department of Education outlays by 8 percent while proposing dramatic change in how federal school dollars are allocated."

Editor: Switching to a block grant allotment of funds is a good idea.

Give x dollars for an existing underfunded y program with no guidelines.

Just someone keeping an eye that it goes for y and not football.

Think the Brandeis Laboratories of democracy used to allocate funds for all programs
and get the WW 2 approach to expert driven complicated programs that can not be managed. Inspired by 
See  Storm Before the Calm.

   

 

More Finish HS-Confucius Would be Happy


Median Wealth Down

stlouisfed.org

1. FED's Get to Set the Rules Without Providing the Money!

wsj

2. Federal Laws Have Unintended Consequences 

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting the unionization of public employees

In 1969, the Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending
students who bring political protest inside the schools
.
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:
,

"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools, kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."
[9]

"We now have "The Language Police, education historian Diane Ravitch's meticulous but horrifying narrative
of how the major textbook publishers, the testing companies and state education departments have
reduced what public-school kids learn to politically correct, politically laughable..."

Editor: In the years since, courts and legislatures gave the neighborhood school yet another big legal obligation:
They Must Mainstream and educate severely disabled kids.
 

1969 the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending students who bring political protest
 
inside the schools.
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:
,
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools,
kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
 it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."

In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court
ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court  ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."

 

3. FED Rules and Money
Did Not Increase Testing Results

Manhattan Institute

 

4. One Answer Individualized Curriculums where Local Community Prioritize Goals

Learn More About Testing

Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.

There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to provide worker training. To some extent this is already happening -- in 2017, according to one report, U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior). Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the publicly funded education system to do it for them.

Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely regarded as having been successful in Germany, and with evidence suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education, these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be useful for white-collar jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor has been helping set up apprenticeships.

 

5. Testing Headlines Misinform

2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International Students Assessment


See
On the World Stage
U.S. Students Fall Behind

Massachusetts PISA Scores
are about the same as Singapore.


 Data on test taker percentages
not provided.
Prejudice for and against
makes all data Suspect.

 

 

A Different Look

Testing Headlines Chase Money-Not Truth

The Nation's Report Card Unchanged

 

Mathematics

A line graph shows that the national average mathematics score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 2013, but was not significantly different compared to 2005, the first year of the current trend line based on a new framework.

Reading

A line graph shows that the national average reading score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 1992, the initial reading assessment year, but was not significantly different compared to 2013.

Math Tests Unchanged Since 1971

Image of a line graph with three horizontal lines showing average scores for age 9, age 13, and age 17 students. The X axis is labeled year and shows various years from 1971 through 2012. The Y axis is labeled scale score and shows a range of scores from 0 to 500. Each horizontal line consists of two assessment variations: original assessment format and revised assessment format. 
      There are two data points in the transition year between original and revised formats. 
      For Reading age 9: The original format was used, In 1971 = 208, significantly different from 2012; 
      In 1975 = 210, significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 215, significantly different from 2012;
       In 1984 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 212, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1990 = 209, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 211, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1994 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1996 = 212, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 
       212, significantly different from 2012; In 2004 = 219; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 216, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 220; and In 2012 = 221. For Reading age 13: 
       The original format was used, In 1971 = 255, significantly different from 2012; In 1975 = 256, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1984 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 257, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 260; In 1994 = 258, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1996 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 259, significantly different from 2012;
        In 2004 = 259, significantly different from 2012; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 257, 
        significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 260, significantly different from 2012; and In 2012 = 263. 
        For Reading age 17: The original format was used, In 1971 = 285; In 1975 = 286; In 1980 = 285;
         In 1984 = 289; In 1988 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1994 = 288; In 1996 = 288; In 1999 = 288; In 2004 = 285; 
         The revised format was used, In 2004 = 283, significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 286; and In 2012 = 287.

US Mathematics & Reading at Grade 12

 

Reasons Test Score Differ

The Difference: Report Card Tests are Constant
PISA Changes Periodically

See Long and Short-Term Testing.

Testing is Big Business

Standardized Test Sales, 1955–1997

 

Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a three-part test
 has made a lot of money for a lot of people.

Business Week
2005 reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last modified."
 

New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies.

The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.

Product Line Expanded
"
More than 25 percent of public high school seniors graduating last May
 took at least one AP test."
2/15/19 

 

Four companies that dominate the business
 of making/scoring standardized tests.
 
"
As of 2011, Gaston Caperton,  the president of the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT,
 was paid $1.3 million.
 Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
 
The National Board on Educational Testing and Public Policy at Boston College
reported that the value of the standardized testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million." huffingtonpost.com

Standardized test exists to create a better life for young people.
 But these tests  hurt young people economically and emotionally.

Epilogue: Education should center on Howard Gardner's
equally valued normally distributed
Multiple Intelligences,
 
concentrating on a student's
Special Intelligence
while
not harming  self actualization.

See Decision 2020 Education Considerations

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More Data on Taxes

Prelude :  Five Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?

 

Prelude:  Five Economic Tax Concerns

1-5 Ayn Rand's Predicted a Tipping Point
Which Begins a Slow Long-Term Growth Decline.

Creative Destruction Fuels Our Economic Prosperity    Source
Average of S&P 500 Index ten-year was 33 years, by 1990 it was 20 years.

Since 1955, only 52 companies still have ten-year top 500 membership.
 

Do you think higher taxes would have kept Bill Gates at Harvard?
Kept Steve jobs at Reed College and out of the computer business?

2-5 Would a Wealth Tax Lower Wealth Created by Entrepreneurs?

See Wealth Tax Economics

 

Has Private Business Reacted to Income Inequality?

Editor's Note: Should Ayn Rand and Milton Freedman are turning over in their graves?
 


3-5 Do We Over Accommodate Business

Profits Moved to the Very Top

Source

4-5 We Lead the West in Productivity

Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe adversaries, seldom enemies.

5-5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive Affected?     When and How Will They Be Affected?

 

A. Politics is in Control

A. IRS Demanding Billions Less From the Wealthy

In 2009, the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel ultra-wealthy ax dodges.
A battle had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began slashing the agency’s budget.
High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned that the squad was conducting “the audits from hell.”

In 2012 the wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes and penalties.
Then, after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.

Having to battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.

summarized from propublica.org

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

Congress Has Given Many a Tax Break

So Has Trump

 

Corporations Pay Less So Stockholders Get More

Examples

Dodging Taxes is Easier

See Millionaires and Corporate Giants Escaped IRS Audits in FY 2018

Tax Dodge Lets Investors Save Big

"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra withdrawals
 by rapidly pumping assets in and out.

 

The Very Rich

Top 400 families have more wealth than bottom 60 percent of households,
while the top 0.1 percent own same as bottom 80 percent.
 Source

 

Wealth Tax Economics

 

 

 

 

 

C. Who Cheats and How

The Who

Wealthy Lead the Parade of Cheats

It is a Long Parade

Source: How big is the problem of tax evasion?
 

The How
 

source


Specifics Techniques

Unbiased Third Party Information Provided Income Type

Tax Liabilities Misreported %

Little or none Farm income 71%
  Nonfarm proprietor income 64
  Rents and royalties 62
  Other income 49
  Form 4797 income 42
Some Capital gains 27
  Partnership, S-corp, etc. 16
Substantial Taxable Social Security benefits 19
  State income tax refunds 13
  Dividend income 7
  Unemployment compensation 6
  Pensions and annuities 4
  Interest income 3
  Wages, salaries, tips 1

 

D. Tax Where the Money Is!

Payroll is Where the Money Is

An 8% payroll tax increase affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.

  The Math Problem That Could Sink the Bernie/AOC Agenda
See The First-Ever Social Security Check?

A women named Fuller paid a total of $24.75 of payroll taxes for three years.
In the 35 years after her retirement, she received $22,888.92 in benefits.

Do low income retirees with dependents
appreciates what a good investment return
 they may receive from social security?

 

People Want More Taken from the Rich

See Taxation Philosophies
 

Those Who Do Not Pay Corporate Taxes Should Not be Guarantee Federal Law Protection

 

Super Rich Do Have Lots More Money

 

Editorials
 

Do the rich pay lower taxes than the poor?

 

The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – David Leonhardt, New York Ti
What the NYT Didn’t Tell You – Robert Verbruggen, National Review

Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent
" Our preliminary estimate is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
 and roughly $800 billion in its first decade.
source EPI

First Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed 70 percent marginal income tax rate
 on $10 million and over to finance her Green New Deal
 affects 16,000 people with  income of $245 billion.
 It would
raise $164-382 billion over ten years.

Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000 households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the millionaires."
Source

Another Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50 million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an estate tax.

A Trump proposal requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used to qualify for means-tested federal programs.

President Barack Obama’s (failed) 2013 proposal to apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people were provided. Source: Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of the SS fund tried to do this.

See Taxes, Socialism, And Class War
Are Billionaires Fat Cats or Deserving Entrepreneurs? but 
Billionaires take more than they make.
Center for Popular Economics
source one-picture economics

 

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

Companies Use Bonus in Place of More Permanente Raises

Just one more reason to be careful when using
economic data for political economy analysis.
Source

 

Middle Households Helped Least

 

F. Would Rich Pay?

Editor's Note: Historically Very rich pay the very educated to avoid taxes.

Would Boxers Box, Musicians Play, Actors Act?

“top

 

Would Hedge Managers Hedge Like They Did Last Decade?

Would a Wealth Tax Slow Economic Growth?


Most of this Wealth Created With Government t Sponsored Technology.

 

We Spent Billions to Keep Them Hedging Beginning in 2007

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Who We Owe, Why We Borrow
Meet Our Creditors
1. US Citizens and US Government Owns Most of tithe Debt

2. Is Foreigners US Debt Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.

 

When We Borrowed

1. Borrowing Began With the Revolution

Image result for Federal Debt graphs

2. Mostly it was War

3. Human Needs Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.

4. Recessions Caused Deficits as Revenue Drops
Nominal Growth Historically Cured Deficit

Obama continued the Bush policy of fighting the Great Recession with debt
and by 12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's austerity policies.

 

Who Paid the Federal Debt

 1. Total Stays the Same

end table?
End of
Fiscal Year
US Gross Debt
in Nominal USD billions
US Gross Debt as % of GDP Question Answer
1940 43.0 52.4 No One
1950 257.4 94.1
1960 290.2 56.1
1970 389.2 37.6
1980 930.2 33.3 No One
1990 3,233 55.9
2000 5,674 58 TBD
2005 7,933 64.6
2007 9,008 65.5
2008 10,699.8 74.6 (EST)
2009           11,046.2   TBD
United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
new table?

 

2. Who Finances Deficit Rollovers?

3. Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed

 

 

Entitlements Pose a Problem

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems

Concerns

Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same, high income earners pay most Required additional health care cost difficult for many

Longer life especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases cost. Free cases poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles currently not acceptable to electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See  Table 1 and  Table 3 Deficit concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic success..
Solution just time or later retirement but politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations Table 2 Tax payers don't appreciate
 their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.

When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least possible pain.

 

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Measured Poverty Has Changes Little

See Why Poverty is Controversial?  

 

BUT After the Safety Net
Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years 

f

 

 

This chart "...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5 to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0 percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even more." Examples of noncash benefits include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid, and Medicare. See Source Editors Comments are in red.

 

 
 

Work is Not Encouraged as Real Minimum Wage Falls
Unintended Consequence of Safety Net Increases?

 

 
 

Government Support Increased Prices

Return to Index Please Share!

 

 
 

Skilled Medical/Profession Workers Were the Big Winner

 

 
 

Learn About

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Conservatism vs. Progressivism
as see through the eyes of George Will

"We hold these truths to be self-evident,
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..."

American Conservatism:
Preserve the Founders Thinking
as custodians of the classical liberal tradition.

Rights are natural. They preexist acts of human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's main purpose is to "secure these rights."

Human nature is permanent and statesmanship is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord with the nature of humans.

Progressivism: Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the understanding and directing of shaping forces.

Today's Conflict: 
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives want
directing of society's shaping forces.

Source: Conservative Sensibility

Classical Liberalism : the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.

New Deal Progressivism of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights.

Determining the final arbiter is always contested.
Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court

Managerial Progressives of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government operations from above and end the business cycles. 

 

Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Conservatives Want a Republic Constitution

First Comes Rights, Then Comes Government

"We the People" Viewed as Individuals
where majority can lose if Judicial Review
determines an action impedes a fundamental right.

 

Progressives Want a Democratic Constitution

First Comes Governments then Comes Rights

We the People Viewed as  One Group
where majority rules and Judicial Review
can not impede majority desires.

The Constitution was Designed to put checks and Balances on Majority Rule and as time as passed, the fear of anarchy from majority rule as lessened.

 
Federal Government Responsibilities
A Brief US Political History Defining Federal Problem Problem Disposition
From the Founding to Civil War Legitimacy in Relations to States Superior
Civil War to New Deal Power Limits to Federal Operations None
New Deal to Recently Meet Needs of all Constituencies Deficits Do Not Matter
Today Making Appropriate Collective Long term Choices Voters Not Interested in
Delayed Gratification
In response to Hamilton's desire for national direction of economic development, Madison foresaw an Administrative state which would

damage Federalism by claiming responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and
 

the resulting increase in new responsibilities would  then take its limit the affect of separation of powers moving power from legislative branch to the executive department. 

Thoughts from James .Q. Wilson, American academic, political scientist, and an authority on public administration
as reported by George Will in The Conservative Sensibility

 

 
The Judicial Supervision Difficulties of Democracy
Counter Majoritarian Difficulty

In U.S. Federalism, Governing is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court

Declaration of Independence

Goal: Secure Unalienable Rights

Affirmed Natural Right of the Individuals

Implies Democracy

Limits to Majority Rule

United States Constitution

Purpose: Define Constructed Rights of the Community

to Make Laws the Majority Deems Necessary and Proper.

Created Tension

Majority Rule is Limited and Moderated
 by the Constitution

Joining a community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court must protect the natural rights of  liberty.

The Legislature writes the laws, the Executive administers laws
 and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.

 

Election 2020 Question Possibilities

Basic Income Information

 

 


More Civility Data

A. Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining
The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between 1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from Facebook but not for twitter.

B. Politically  “teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party lines."

"This happened in the 1850s: We know what happened..."
 "Things...could get plenty bad..."  with a "...serious recession or the stock market..." crash. "

and ... as a nation we are no longer capable of making preparations for such events."

  "Political Polarization: The Rise and Decline of America's Postwar Political Order"

Editors Note: With democracy, very difficult to sacrifice before the pain. Think WW1  WW2  Gilded Age Greed

 

 

 

C. U.S. Supreme Court Job Approval Rating Ties Record Low

Trend: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?

It's Political

Trend: Supreme Court Job Approval, by Political Party

D. Individual Behavior Norms Are Expanding

 

Legality of Behavior Norms Also Up

 

Attitude Toward Abortion Unchanged

Public views of abortion: 1995-2018

 


Why the Difference?
It's About Relegion!

 
 

It's About Politics

There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion
,
with Democrats
much more likely than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.

This gap is even larger between liberal Democrats
 and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP (27%)

It's enhanced by

Roe v. Wade
Poisoned Our Politics

Michael Barone New York Post

Today’s “partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v. Wade,
said Michael Barone. The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so heated if
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might be at stake.

In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s population
had already liberalized their abortion laws
,
and America would have had different laws in different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all circumstances

and the country’s defining wedge issue.

While public opinion on cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on abortion has
scarcely budged.”

It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally moral issue
about “the way people live their lives”: Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their “personal autonomy”
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly religious,
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human lives.”

Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed it
because neither side believes it can afford any compromise
.
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.

 
 
   
   

2020 Election Info: U.S. and China Are Geopolitical Political Rivals?

end table?

U.S. Has a Strong Geopolitical Position
Power and Global Disorder 22 min video 11/8/18
Peter Zeihan

1. Largest strip of high-quality arable land in the world

2. Most Navigable Waterways in the world

3. Control best parts of a continent with moats on either side

4. If US trading system breaks down, US suffers the least!  

5. Trade subsidizes the Global system so NAFTA must work.

6. US is delusional  when thinking China is the next super power.
    She has only managed to hold together for 300 years.

Water, Energy, Soil and Food--and a Shared National Purpose Matter

Requirements for Success

U.S very good Geography that is productive and well protected.

Economically Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable demographic. The others are "terminal countries."
 

Happening faster because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations with people.
Near the end he new how important factors were interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.

But Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is following a neoconservative policy.

US has forced an acceleration of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates.
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain rapid growth.
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China will fall apart.

Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China
is Japans concern.
Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis.
Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one except Russia, is a nuclear concern.
Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South Korean/Japanese worry.

Editor's Question: Is US as protector a requirement for US business and finance to control the world?
Source:
Factors Indicating a New International Order
See Videos Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018
The Accidental Superpower and
The Absent Superpower

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan
U.S.-China Relations in 2019 video
  Kevin Rudd

Preface

U.S. Government Not Designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise.
b. Many want limited government.
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems.

Recent Exception After WW 2
a. The 1946 Long Telegram described a very aggressive Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year multi-administration policy of containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully

Containment Success
a. Fragility of Soviet economy and society caused implosion from within.
b. China is very different.

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

US Strategic Plan

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and one side backs down.

b. Competition is more adversarial but no US guidelines given.

c. Rules to be determined

Washington's Latest Attitude Toward China Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult.

b. McCarthyism in U.S. and Australia is not good Foreign Policy.

Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign challenges to the long-term survival of the Communist Party.

b.  Assistant Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a strong-man and long-time party member, move toward markets rankling some politburo bureau members.

Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes

b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends

c) Set a new direction

Recent Changes

a)  Communist Party and Ideology was enhanced
   
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
b) Ideological Confidence has increased.

c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

d) China to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform

 

2020 Election Info: Trump's Grade Report

Part One

Update 8/21/19

Keeping Promises is why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.

Love him or hate him, Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality—
or at least making the case that he tried:

Successes
  • Conservative Supreme Court justice?  double-check.
  • Tax cuts? Check, weighted toward corporations rather than the middle class.
  • Gut regulations Check.
  • Crack down check, despite his failure to build a wall. 
  • Tariffs on China? Check.
  • Declaring China a currency manipulator? Check.
  • Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pacific Rim trade deal? Check.
  • Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. Pending congressional approval.
 
Failed Promises
  • He promised in a 2016 interview, wipe out the national debt in eight years.
  • He promised great wall," and inflates the mileage mixing replacements with new construction.
  • He promised Mexico would pay, failed.
  • He promised repeal Affordable Care Act and give amazing health care to everyone. Failed
  • He promised to reverse trade deficits.  U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
  • Trump, pushed to end Afghanistan and with draw all U.S. troops failed
  • fallen short:
  • infrastructure and ending the Opioid crisis.
  •  drain the swam

axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-d97f5ef2- 

2. Trump's New Geopolitical Era?

1. Three Main Forces Blowing Up Global Politics     2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs    4. Cultural Wars    Source Geopolitics


1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

 by Summary from editor  Walter Antoniotti   antonw@ix.netcom.co
Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to
Europe/Western Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions

contributed to these disruptions and caused  many to lash out in a tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended

1.
Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

Disruptions Could Last Years
Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.

Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
3.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.

Source

A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes  by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions.
Source

3. Foreign Affairs

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Older Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source

U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision
B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political 
topic/lingua franca is important
C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step

E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts
 

4. Cultural Wars

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession  
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased
economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3)  threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neithe
r Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.

“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics.
.
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy

A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source:
The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

Causes
1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance

Understanding Right and Left Populism
Right populism
defines "the people" as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism 
2) refugees  
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...

Left populism defines “the people”
as
social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other
Right populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state.
Left populism defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
workforce casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.

More Terror Information

German recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase. Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.

US Targets Varied

Racist Trend
"White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance, and skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."

Anti-Federalist Trend
The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan. Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation were  anti-taxation, gun rights, and a “survivalist” lifestyle. The “farm crises” of the 1980s,  and rapid cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive movement, as well as its rapid growth.
2

Fundamentalist Trend
Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations, merges religious fundamentalism with traditional white supremacy and racist tendencies. It promotes ideas of nativism, exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according to primordial attributes.

The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud Sprinzak published a paper on the irredentist Israeli religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the Faithful) entitled “The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”
6

 

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Populism   Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Under Construction

  Don't Trust the Experts
Editor: Not an Expert, Trust Me?
 
Analyzing Experts    

Basis Premise is Important
If Correct, they may be correct. If Wrong, they will be Wrong
 
Why incorrect: Application:
Alexander Hamilton
Constitution of the US must be strictly interpretation and when it did not give him authority to buy Louisiana from France, he bought it anyway,.
Would not be the first expert to see what he wanted to see in the US Constitution,  
Alan Greenspan:
Self Regulating Markets are not affected by financial markets.
1. Human nature requires control of events to maximize results.
2. Not being able to measure something correctly
   does not exclude it from affecting other variables.
Economic models are overvalued
George Will
Government purpose, defined by Declaration of Independence,
was to protect individual liberty.
Dec o Ind was to explain why we separated from England.
Constitution defines the management of the federation of states,
Ben Franklin said our government would be 'A Republic, if you can keep it,"

 

Climate Change

Image

Image
 

Geoengineer the Planet? More Scientists Now Say It Must Be an Option (Yale Environment 360)

Unfortunately, China counters the trend away from coal. Its Belt & Road Initiative is dotting unspoiled stretches of Central Asia with the most polluting kind of coal-fired power stations.

 

A study by Global Energy Monitor cited by Corporate Knights estimates that the countries covered by the Belt and Road initiative could end up producing 66% of the world’s carbon emissions by 2050. That would increase their current level of accounting for 28% of global CO2 emissions and would cancel out the rest of the world’s efforts in restraining temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius.

The Cosmic Ray Climate Link

 

COP25 Ends Without Deal on Big Polluters’ Responsibility
to Frontline Nations 12/17/19

 

 

 

 

Global electricity inequality is a tale of two continents: Asian convergence & African divergence. Decisions on financing & building infrastructure in Africa will be made in the fossil-fueled offices of Washington, London, Paris & Beijing

 

Global electricity inequality is a tale of two continents: Asian convergence & African divergence. Decisions on financing & building infrastructure in Africa will be made in the fossil-fueled offices of Washington, London, Paris & Beijing. resourcewatch.org/data/explore?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019

/

Qatar was always hot. Climate change is making it completely unbearable. The response is to air-condition even the outdoor stadiums of the soccer world cup. washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/