"...the idea that you can just have better training and then there
are all these jobs, all these places where there are shortages and we just
need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."
" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs. If you help some
people, you could help them get the jobs, but then someone else won't get
the jobs. "
John Mueller's1995 statement concerning
Retrospection Bias.
“... no matter how much better
the present gets,
the past gets better faster..."
Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in
them:
they are always back there somewhere.”
An estimated 45.4% of all deaths caused by heart disease, stroke and type 2
diabetes are
associated with eating either too much/little of 10 food categories.
Journal of the American Medical Association.
Homicides account for one-tenth
of one percent of law enforcement offenses.
Mass shootings are a fraction of all homicides.
Injured or killed is about 4 per 10,000,000 people or
about as unlikely as being struck by lightning in
2016.
If you like to worry, worry about dying in a
car crash or a fire....
Measuring economic Wellbeing
is difficult. Poor economic measures overstate poverty. Undervalued
Inexpensive Well-Made Asian Products are Undervalued.
Some inflation adjustments understate
wage increases.
Improved Government Imposed Building Standards Are Ignored.
U.S.
Poverty Rate is
Fake News
Why?
1.
It Ignores Our Safety Net and Purchasing Power.
2.
It is bias
communication from the media, economist, politicians
and professionals providing inadequate,
concerned
with
personal ideology rather than appropriate information and
theories.
Three Poverty Rate Measurements
Official-based on
CPI data Supplemental-includes government safety net programs Consumption-based on Consumer Expenditure Survey
Income inequality rose in both the top and bottom
halves of the distribution,
but increases in consumption inequality
are only evident in the top half.
The differences are also
concentrated in single parent families and single individuals. Consumption/Income Inequality Since the 1960s
1. The
Official Poverty Measure fell to 11.8%,
the lowest it has been since 11.7% in
2001,
which was the end of the
1990s expansion, and before that, not
since the late 1960s.
2. This data
from ignores
noncash benefits such as SNAP, health
benefits, and subsidized housing.
Such benefits have grown 16 times faster than
anti-poverty benefits counted as income.
3. Full-time, full-year workers povertyrate was
2.3% percent in 2018.
For those aged 18 to
64 who did not work it, was 29.7%.
For families headed by married couples
it, was 4.7%.
For those headed by a
single female it, was 24.9%.
For “no spouse present,”
income increased 5.8%.
Female full-time,
full-year median real earnings rose 40%
since the 1970s..
Male full-time,
full-year real median earnings were
flat.
"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is
this: when it comes to financial crises,
we're not
in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces.
Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable.
Runaway private debt
and the resulting overcapacity does a better job than
any other variable in explaining and predicting
financial crises. It is our job to heed those danger
signs." (Vague
2019, p. ix)Brief History of Doom
(INET)
has concise data summary Video 14 min.
Many will say "who cares"
because
they believe in
Modern Monetary Policy
FED Printing
Money Could Cause Inflation
Leading to Higher Interest Rates Requiring More Tax Dollars.
Selected Countries by value
Inefficient
Reasonably efficient
World
Leader
China - $952.6 billion -
26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture
United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% employed in agriculture
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% employed in
agriculture
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% employed in
agriculture
France - $55.6 billion
-
2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion
--2.57%
employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion
-4.31% employed in agriculture
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!
An example of the unintended consequences of
government support is increased Social Security benefits paralleled
the decrease in the personal savings rate.
Government Deficits Fund Private
Savings.
1) Early 20th Century
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
A
Failed Utopian, Totalitarian System
2) Post WW 2
Government controls key industries such as
utilities, transportation and communications.
Classic socialism dominated after World War II and
still is believed
by many older Americans.
3) Current Perception
US has Mixed Economy
Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health
insurance, retirement provisions, and access to less expensive higher education.
This doesn't replace capitalism, it makes it more humane, egalitarian, and more protective.
A
Republic
is a free, equal, self-ruling government of people.
Limits on Democracy
and Majority Rule
1. All are Guaranteed Individual Rights
2. Constitutional protects minority from majority.
3. Supreme Court
manages evolving constitution.
Energy
Demand Realties 1.
Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy
2. A 2% decline in the hydrocarbon share of world
energy use
entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on
alternatives.
3. When the 3rd world’s poor increase energy use to
a third of
Europe’s, energy use global demand increase by twice
America’s total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in electric vehicles to 400 million
by 2040
would displace 5% of global oil demand.
14.Batteries to store two-day’s of U.S. electricity demand
would require 1,000 years of production by
world’s
biggest battery factor.
Realities About Energy Economics
17. Over 30 years Investing $1
million returns:
solar or wind produces 40 million and 55
million kWh
shale produces 300 million kWh from natural gas
19. It costs <$0.50 to store a barrel of oil/natural
gas and
$200 to store the equivalent energy in batteries.
25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of
natural
gas & coal, but electric rates rose 20%
since 2008
because of subsidies for solar/wind.
Energy Physics Realities 26.
Transforming the energy economy is not like putting
a
few people on the moon, it's like
permanently putting all
of humanity on the moon.
28. If solar power could be scaled like computer-tech,
a postage-stamp size solar array would power
the Empire
State Building.
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery
the size of a
book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner
to Asia.
31. Physics limit for solar cells (the
Shockley-Queisser limit)
is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into
electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech.
Physics limits for wind turbines (Betz limit) are
a max
capture of 60% of energy in moving air;
commercial
turbines achieve 45%.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined,
moved and
processed for every pound of battery
fabricated.
39. A battery-centric grid and car world means
mining
gigatons more of the earth to access
lithium, copper,
nickel, graphite, rare earths,
cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of
oil and coal
both in mining and to fabricate metals and
concrete.
40. China dominates global battery production with
its grid
70% coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese
batteries will
create more carbon-dioxide than
saved by replacing
oil-burning engines. See
Decoupling-Debunked
Source:
Inconvenient Energy Realities
Editor's Notes: Because Trump's methods puts much of the
foreign policy establishment out of business,
bias concerning Trump and Foreign Policy is possible.
So, read sources for opinions.
Of course Nixon did this.
2.
Trump is much like Reagan who knew little theory and few statistics. His belief
that capitalism was just better than Communism, This led to conflicted Russian relations
as he called them and evil empire while getting along
with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.
Questions: Why did the American people know so little about Russia's
economic chaos. Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear?
Is Trump being buddies Putin while an attempt
at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?
Millennials Aren’t Drowning in Student Debt
Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt
Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers
accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly
payments of less than $200).
B, Akers, Manhattan Inst
Benefits from
Forgiving Student Debts
Student receiving loan relief reduced
their use of credit cards resulting in
debt reduction by 26%
They were 11% less likely to default
on other accounts.
Borrowers' geographical mobility
increased, more changed jobs
and income
increased by about $3000 over a three year period.
A Personal Diary 1. I helped N.H. passes a 1970's Student Loan
Program.
2. By 1989, tuition grants at Franklin Pierce
College reached
$1,000,000. Grants go to most desired students, most
others pay full tuition using state and local loans, grants,
and scholarships. A check of 990 tax forms revealed
that most use this financing/marketing.
4. Consulting firms searched the applicant pool to
determine which extra curricula activities will
generate the most cash.
6. Loans to parents become the first choice of
college
councilors because they can be larger and attended
colleges are not held responsible for bad debts.
7. Increased Graduate school loans were caused when
year two loans could begin the summer of year one.
Questions about private debt, rich
students/patents, graduate student.
Government
Economic Involvement began with
Hamiltonian Economics
which centering
on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's
presidency. Soon on
politicians battled
minimal state liberalism
(today's conservatism)
and
active state liberalism
(today's liberalism).
Public good
expansion began in Ernst in the 20th century. Today
Conservatives and Progressives
do battle to
control federal spending.
Analysis:While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second
with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing.
The French
Take long vacations and retire earlier, and so they typically work
fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in
2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably
reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle,
and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally
distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:
Charles Jones and Peter
Klenow
proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It
is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more
comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only
per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working
time. less is better life expectancy more is better and
inequality less is better. Analysis:
While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second
with 25% less, is only slightly ahead in wellbeing, The French
take long vacations and retire earlier so they typically work
fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in
2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably
reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet,
lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are
somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United
States.
A
wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national
saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter
the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the
tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might
be ruled unconstitutional . It would be simpler to increase in
tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and
gift taxes.
Understanding Issues Changed Attitudes!
Tax Policies
Editor's Will Be
Investigate When Candidates Determined.
Recently: Civility Declined,
Animosity,
and
Polarity Increased
1. Were
Supreme Court Actions the Cause?
State
Redistricting Plans, Schools Integration/busing/housing,
Abortion
Trouble began when Federal efforts went beyond stopping
Jim Crow laws.
2. Has Political Control Affected
Civility
Political Parties Began to
polarize when
FDR kept control of the Democratic Party by
excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.
Northern Democrats began catering to blacks.
LBJ sealed the change with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
South was Republican, Coasts Were Democratic.
Reagan sealed the breach and political polarity
intensified.
The 1987
Communication IndustryFairness
Doctrine Eliminated Radio Stations were no
longer required to present contrasting views. Conservative and
Liberal Polarization
Proliferate Rush
Limbaugh, who had popularized
conservative talk radio, now had
fewer restrictions.
Talk Radio andIdentity
Politics
Flourished.
4. The
Telecommunications Act of 1996 allowed multi station company ownership
and national network developed. As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications
(now iHeartMedia) owned over 800
US radio stations and
Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.[3]
5.
Citizens United v. FEC Allowed
Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship
diversified.
which supported both
intended and
unintendedFake News.
6.
Sports Trash Talking Went Public
Mohamed Ali
practically invented this 1960's genre
as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering.
which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.
Larry Bird
and others soon followed.
7.Banning Earmarks in 2011 increased polarization
as political cooperating to
“bring home the bacon” ended.
More than
five years ago I began adding
political economy studies to
Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I study the 4th populist-terrorist episode
to attack the
post WW 1 United
States.
Anxiety increased when blacks
increased their economic and political power.
They received a more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.
White middle class men and women were no longer the
center of society.
Educators
had long been acting as if the normal curve did
not exist.
Education was the great equalizer. It solved most issues.
Then the Great Recession many hardships to rural areas and the
Rust
Belt very hard.
But, individual failure has continues.
Equal educational opportunity was not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and
nurture were not equally
distributed.
Education
Change was needed.
Special
blame goes to the politicians, economists and professionals.
Economic success and political stability of 1980-2000 fostered technocrat
control.
But, too often they provided inadequate,
bias Information that was not applicable
to a particular issue.
There failures are the
real
Fake News.
It is more dangerous than the
fake news from lies,
Yellow
Journalism,
and
Propaganda.
The
Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed
by the Reagan Revolution followed by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on
many middle class whites.
Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back
to the beginning,
to Great Society animosity.
Trump's election signified a new
Populism.
It is much like
our
20th Century Populism episodes.
Democracy is supposed to be
troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving
populist issues to
Millennials.
They must take control
during
what some consider a
Fourth Turning
source.
of 20th Century Western Europe is public ownership of key
industries such as RR,
transportation and communication. It also has increased concern for the disadvantaged
and substantial private property.
Note: Neoliberal economics was used by England's
Margaret Thatcher in 1979 to dismantled
Democratic and she was followed to a lesser
degree in much of Europe. In 1981 Ronald
Reagan, President of the United States followed similar policies.
A Socialist
Utopia was Imagined by people during the 19th
Century who believed
political equality required wealth equality.
Production was a common good.
The public, using
a democratic process, controls the state.
States
should determine investment goals and resulting
strategy.
This is accomplished by controlling
property and investment capital. Production will be for
the common good and not for state officials.
In 19th Century Capitalism, wealth
was directed by rich private investors wanting the highest capital return.
They neglected the low return of social
goods. Socialist believe this limited
human possibilities.
Capitalism Not
Imagined or
Planned It was
a reality emerging with
the Industrial Revolution.
It required investment and the reinvested of profit.
Its wealth creation soon dwarf that of European aristocracy.
Unlike socialism, capitalist did not contemplate
the virtue of wealth or the effects of industrialism on
the human condition.
Not an ideology, intellectuals did not defend it until
the 20th century
when Hayek and Friedman, among others, sought did so.
Capitalism
explainer Adam Smith wrote “The Wealth of Nations.” It described how
individual decisions, driven by self-interest,
would
culminate in an increased wealth of nations. In “The Theory of Moral
Sentiments,” Smith argument that
moral development resulted from appropriate management.
Capitalism maximized wealth, it did not limit inequality.
Investments were based on capital return expectations.
Capital would move toward maximum creation of wealth.
The process left some serving the system, excluding
others.
Characteristics of Capitalism Private property-individuals
own resources
Freedom of enterprise-own a business
Freedom of economic choice-work/not
work, spend/not spend ...
Role of self-interest
Competitive Market System
Laissez-Faire
Government let
markets operate freely
Questionable Degree of
Government Involvement a concern
Editor's Note: Most
politicians want
more G for infrastructure.
Some want more G for education.
Some want more G for entitlements.
Some want more G for the safety net.
Some want more G for defense.
All politicians are buying votes.
Until economic growth picks up, all sectors will increase debt.
Still
Populism
Developed as
Politicians, the Media,
and
Professionals Can/Have Made
Much Money, Power and Gained Respect
by Influencing/Creating Negativity!
See
Fake News
Please Share!
Editor's Note:
Knowing how the US poorly measures
economic reality,
I wants someone to determine exactly how well our poor live now,
have lived in the
recent past, and will live in the Future.
Editor's
Thoughts: 1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a
good thing or not. 2. US policies and practices don't look all that different. 3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously
distinctive.
4. Almost all students lose
interest in math and science. Computers and experiments may
delay this decision, but they
also increase learning for a very few
by a very lot.
Homework may teach some to be more responsible,
but again it
also increase
learning for a very few by a very lot.
More money for teachers is usually good
but one of the best teachers I have
observed since 1950
was, by
almost all measures, a poor teacher.
Maximize a
students reading ability,
teach a little practical math,
Postscript: We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War
2. The Civil War
3. WW 1
4. Great Depression Poverty
5. WW 2
6. War on Poverty
7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse
Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters
Who Vote for Incumbents
Historically, the
U.S. Has Succeeded Using Inflation
and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.
People loved dot-coms until
they didn’t.
They loved credit default swaps until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.
“When the music stops for expandingliquidity,
things
will be complicated."
Chuck Prince on debt-fueled
private equity deals before
the economy
collapsed.
The years 1968, 1969, and 1970 had many
noticeable events:
early baby boomers moved into their 20’s;
assassinations
of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy;
the women’s
movement; the draft lottery, the bombing of Cambodia,
unrest on college campuses. Woodstock, Stonewall...
Did any of these increase the impatience of the country in a
permanent way?
There are likely stories that could be woven, undoubtedly more
than one,
but it is unclear whether anything
could be tested.
The question is
probably too big,
but the fact is interesting.
Source
Growing up in a rural 1950's Massachusetts
Observations
Conditions
Elderly lived with their children, few had health
insurance or much income.
Poor Families lived in older house at the end of a dirt road.
Poor Children were skinny, often dirty, didn't finish HS,
pooped around and then went into military, found a trade or pumped gas.
Almost no one had air conditioning.
Position Almost
all benefited economically after WW 2 but
those in the bottom
quintile
were economically less well-off.
Retired in Rural 2003
Central Florida Observations
Conditions
Elderly live on their own with Medicare and improved SS. Poor families lived in older lowland house or trailers. Poor Children, obesity a problem, most finish HS, try college,
go into one of many services, industry and live at home.
Position
Poverty Rate Stuck,
which ignores the safety net,
is stuck at 15%.
Liberals misuse poverty data and Conservatives despise safety net.
Some Feel Rich Have Too Much of Our Wealth
Wealth of Lower
Income Cohorts should Includes
Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and
Help from Friends and Family.
Elderly and Children Receive Substantial
Assistance
Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net
Working Means Fewer
Benefits
States
Determine When Income is Too High to Receive
a Benefit
Family Size
100%
133%
138%
250%
1
$12,140
$16,146
$16,753
$30,350
$48,560
2
$16,460
$21,892
$22,715
$41,150
$65,840
3
$20,780
$27,637
$28,676
$51,950
$83,120
4
$25,100
$33,383
$34,638
$62,750
$100,400
5
$29,420
$39,129
$40,600
$73,550
$117,680
6
$33,470
$44,515
$46,189
$84,350
$133,880
7
$38,070
$50,633
$52,537
$95,150
$152,280
8
$42,380
$56,365
$58,484
$105,950
$169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320
for each additional person. Note:
Eligibility for premium tax credits in
coverage year 2019 is based on poverty
guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty
line.
In
1962,
President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting
the
unionization of public employees
In 1969,
the Supreme Court, in Tinker
v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from
suspending
students who bring political protest inside the
schools
.
In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:, "I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of
state-supported schools, kindergartens, grammar schools, or high
schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep
their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a
new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered
by the judiciary."[9]
"We now have "The
Language Police,
education historian Diane Ravitch's meticulous but horrifying
narrative
of how the major textbook publishers, the testing companies and state education departments have
reduced what public-school kids learn to politically correct,
politically laughable..."
Editor:
In
the years since,
courts and legislatures gave the neighborhood school yet another
big legal obligation:
They Must
Mainstream and educate severely disabled kids.
1969
the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker
v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local
schools from suspending students who bring political protest inside
the schools.
In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:,
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of
state-supported schools,
kindergartens,
grammar schools, or high
schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep
their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a
new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered
by the judiciary."
In 1975
Goss
v. Lopez,
the Court ruled in
the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required. In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."
Instead of turning K-12 education
into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of
learning approaches.
There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning
in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to
provide worker training. To some extent this is already happening --
in 2017, according to
one report, U.S. companies spent $90.6
billion on training, representing a substantial
increase from 2016 (though much of this may
represent training regarding sexual harassment
and other bad behavior). Government tax breaks
and other incentives could encourage more
companies to train their own workers instead of
relying on the publicly funded education system
to do it for them.
Apprenticeships are another
approach. Widely regarded as having been
successful in
Germany, and with
evidence suggesting returns similar to those
of other types of education, these programs are
catching on in the U.S., with about a
half-million people now in apprenticeship
programs. Although typically associated with
manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be
useful for
white-collar jobs. Under a program from the
Obama era, the Department of Labor has
been helping set up apprenticeships.
2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading
literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International Students Assessment
Standardized tests mean large
profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a
three-part test
has made a lot of money for a lot of people.
Business Week 2005
reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last
modified."
New curriculums mean large profits for
curriculum design companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies..
The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.
Product Line Expanded
" More than 25 percent of public high school
seniors graduating last May
took at least one AP test."
2/15/19
Four companies that dominate
the business
of
making/scoring standardized tests.
"As of 2011,
Gaston Caperton, the president of the College
Board, nonprofit owner of SAT, was paid $1.3 million.
Richard Ferguson,
former executive officer of ACT Inc., made
roughly $1.1 million.
The National
Board on Educational Testing and Public Policy
at Boston College
reported that the value of the
standardized testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million."
huffingtonpost.com
Standardized test exists to create a better life for young people.
But these tests hurt young people economically and emotionally.
Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then
Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe adversaries,
seldom enemies.
5. Key Questions Are the Most
Productive Affected? When and How Will They
Be Affected?
High-powered tax lawyer and now
Trump’s IRS commissioner,
warned that the squad was conducting “the
audits from hell.”
In 2012 the wealth team embarked on a
contentious audit of German billionaire businessman
George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined
owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes and penalties.
t after seven years of
grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.
Having to battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.
"Typically, when you sell a stock for
more than you paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks
to a quirk in a
Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they
use the stock to pay off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting
investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to
create extra withdrawals
by rapidly pumping assets in
and out.
The Very Rich
Top 400 families have more wealth
than
bottom 60 percent of
households,
while
the top 0.1 percent own same as bottom 80
percent.
Source
An 8% payroll tax
increase affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten
years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.
A women named Fuller paid a total of
$24.75 of payroll taxes
for three years.
In the 35 years after her
retirement, she received $22,888.92 in benefits.
Early Tax Proposals
A 10
percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent " Our preliminary estimate is that
such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
and roughly $800 billion in its first decade.
source EPI
First Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed
70 percent marginal
income tax rate on $10 million and over to finance her Green
New Deal
affects 16,000 people with income of $245 billion.
It
wouldraise
$164-382 billion over ten years.
Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it
could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000
households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the
millionaires."
Source
Another Proposal
from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50
million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an estate tax.
A
Trump proposal requiring the chained CPI to
inflation-adjust the official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used
to qualify for means-tested federal programs.
President Barack Obama’s (failed) 2013
proposal to
apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people
were provided. Source:
Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of
the SS fund tried to do this.
2. Is Foreigners US Debt
Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.
When We Borrowed
1. Borrowing
Began With the Revolution
2. Mostly it was
War
3. Human Needs Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression
and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.
Obama continued the Bush policy
of fighting the Great Recession with debt
and by
12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's
austerity policies.
3. Trump's
Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed
Entitlements Pose a Problem
Summary
Definition
Who Benefits from Most to Least
Problems
Concerns
Medicare
Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same,
high income earners pay most
Required additional health care
cost difficult for many
Longer life
especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care
will increases cost. Free cases poorer health.
Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles
currently not acceptable to electorate.
Social Security
Retirement
income, partial at
62, max at 70,
Low income earners receive
ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See
Table 1 and
Table 3
Deficit
concerns until
baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote. SS
Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic
success..
Solution just time or later retirement but
politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should
add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures
Legal deductions and
exemptions from income decrease tax collections
Employee sponsored
health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage
interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled
foreign corporations Table 2
Tax payers don't
appreciate
their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is
unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400
billion in 2015 when the
deficit was $439 billion.
When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least
possible pain.
BUT After the
Safety Net
Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years
f
This chart
"...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty
rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not
using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U
would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5
to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0
percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to
match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even
more."Examples of noncash benefits
include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid,
and Medicare. See
SourceEditors Comments are
in red.
Work is Not Encouraged as Real Minimum Wage Falls
Unintended
Consequence of Safety Net Increases?
"We hold these truths to be self-evident,
that all
men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable
Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the
pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights,
Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent
of the governed..."
Rights are natural. They preexist acts of
human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if
rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's
main purpose is to "secure these rights."
Human nature is permanent and statesmanship
is to develop a political system
that is conducive to and in accord with the nature of humans.
Progressivism:
Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that
is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the
understanding and directing of shaping forces.
Today's Conflict:
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives
want directing of
society's shaping forces.
Classical Liberalism
: the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct
from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty
primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now
called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.
New Deal Progressivism
of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution.
A Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding government beyond providing conditions for perusing
happiness to providing economics rights to supplement Political
Rights. Determining the final arbiter is
always contested. Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court
Managerial Progressives
of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government
operations from above and end the business cycles.
In response to Hamilton's desire for national
direction of economic development, Madison foresaw an
Administrative state which would
damage Federalism by claiming
responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and
the resulting increase in new responsibilities would then take
its limit the affect of separation of powers moving power from legislative
branch to the executive department.
The Judicial Supervision
Difficulties of Democracy
Counter Majoritarian Difficulty
In U.S. Federalism, Governing
is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the
Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court
Declaration of Independence
Goal:
Secure Unalienable Rights
Affirmed
Natural Right of the Individuals
Implies
Democracy
Limits to
Majority Rule
United States Constitution
Purpose:
Define Constructed Rights of the Community
to Make
Laws the Majority Deems Necessary and Proper.
Created Tension
Majority Rule
is Limited and Moderated
by the Constitution
Joining a
community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court
must protect the natural rights of liberty.
The Legislature writes the laws,
the Executive administers laws
and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.
A. Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the diffusion
of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between 1/15 and
7/18.
False content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through
the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from Facebook
but not for twitter.
B. Politically “teams”
will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party
lines."
"This happened in the 1850s: We know
what happened..."
"Things...could get plenty bad..." with a "...serious recession or
the stock market..." crash. "
and ... as a nation we are no longer
capable of making preparations for such events."
There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion,
with Democrats
much more likely
than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.
This gap is even larger between liberal
Democrats
and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP
(27%)
Today’s
“partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v.
Wade,
said Michael Barone.
The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so
heated if
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might
be at stake.
In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s
population
had already liberalized their abortion laws,
and America would have had different laws in
different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices
delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all
circumstances—
and the country’s defining wedge issue.
While public opinion on
cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on
abortion has
scarcely budged.”
It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally
moral issue
about “the way people live their lives”:
Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their “personal
autonomy”
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly
religious,
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human
lives.”
Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed
it
because neither side believes it can afford any
compromise.
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee
battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.
U.S very good Geography that is
productive and well protected.
Economically Favorable
Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer demographic
will end while
China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain now
have the highest tax paying work force.
Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic
regeneration.
French and New Zeeland may have a favorable demographic.
The others are "terminal countries."
Happening
faster
because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations with
people.
Near the end he new how important factors were
interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.
But Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some
policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is
following a neoconservative policy.
US has forced an
acceleration of world player adjustments.
1.
Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates.
2.
China's needs US managing World security to maintain
rapid growth.
3.
Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China will fall
apart.
Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China is Japans concern. Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis. Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one except Russia, is a
nuclear concern. Containing
Korean delivery of nukes is a South Korean/Japanese worry.
U.S. Government Not Designed
for Governmental Grand
Strategies
a. Separation of powers
requires compromise.
b. Many want limited
government.
c. Private Sector Renewals
solve problems.
Recent Exception After WW
2
a. The 1946Long Telegram
described a very aggressive
Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year
multi-administration
policy of
containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War
ended peacefully
Containment Success a. Fragility of Soviet
economy and society caused
implosion from within.
b. China is very different.
Trump
Would Say We Have a
Strategic Policy
1. National Security
Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy
issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense
Manufacturing Industry
issued mid 2018
US
Strategic Plan
Era of Strategic Engagement
Replaced by Strategic
Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and
one side backs down.
b. Competition is more
adversarial but no US
guidelines given.
c. Rules to be determined
Washington's
Latest Attitude Toward China
Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of
convergence of societies
difficult.
b. McCarthyism
in U.S. and Australia is not
good Foreign Policy.
Geopolitical Factors for
Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping
will resist any forces:
economic, social, political,
or foreign
challenges to the long-term
survival of the Communist
Party.
b.
Assistant Vice Premier
Li Keqiang,
a strong-man and long-time
party member, move toward markets
rankling some politburo bureau members.
Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes
b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to
historical trends
c) Set a new direction
Recent Changes
a)
Communist Party and Ideology
was enhanced to counter China's lethargic corrupt state
bureaucracy b) Ideological
Confidence has increased.
Opposition to
immigrants, globalization, and
establishment's leaders/institutions
created
disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread
to Europe causing two
years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to Europe/Western Culture.
Status and
Social Cultural Apprehensions
contributed to these disruptions and caused many to lash out in a
tribal like response.
US Led and
Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended
1. Great power conflict has returned
to early Cold War levels
2
Declining world wide economic prosperity,
including the west Disruptions Could Last Years Axion
reports
#1,
#2,
#3 Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit,
or something
else
would helpmoderate disruptions.
Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2.
Aging and shrinking developed world's
population reinforces disruptions.
3.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.
Source
Older
Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A.
Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to
Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power
for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power
projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese
bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance
"players"
New
Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded
South China Sea Militarism B. Build a
New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign
investment
3. provide infrastructure C. Asian
Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives E. New Navel
Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti F.
Military
exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done
by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion
in China alone. Source
U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global
Order
A
Well
Conceived Grand Strategy
A.
Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying
historical
trends Recent Changes
A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party
controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian
model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic
community centered on Communist theory over policy.
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national
interest must be enhanced with a national vision B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now
favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis.
1. Nothing random about what is
unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of
economic development Based on a Marxian
Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of
US/West and China's rise.
2. Current historical juncture
represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate
using political topic/lingua franca is important C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future
of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international
order
a. organization
like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of
global alliance ensures her own definition
international security
3. Change U.S. Control Global
Governess now based on a complex web of
world
organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy
based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more
fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN
Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions
is first step E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US,
reacts
Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increasedeconomic
insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality
3) threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization
has armed right and left
populists.
Neither Norris and Inglehart nor Laclauadequately account for
such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.
“the people” aredifferentially deployed by right and
left and they
themselves
must be understood in terms
of the respective enemies through
which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.
Neoliberal Economic
Orthodoxies wrong,
A. Finance does affect real economy.
B. Finance system can falter.
C. Many economist wrong because of politics..
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy
A. World trade is stable because the world, through
Europe's
banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing
in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual
Property
generated corporate profits
and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is
in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook,
Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on
intellectual
property rights
which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an
increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump
astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source: The New Financial
Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism
Causes
1.
Foreign Policy
Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures
i.e. Middle East wars
2.
Non-Liberal Democracy
success, especially China
3.
Poor Liberal Democracy Performance
Understanding Right and Left Populism Right populism
defines "the people"
as those confronting an
external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism
2) refugees
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...
Left populism defines “the people”
as
social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for
self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other Right populism
defines the enemy in personalized terms as believing insecurity and anxiety are
necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist
social relations. This
generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and apunitive state Left populism
defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing insecurity and anxiety are
caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
workforce
casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.
German
recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase. Most were
perpetrated by right-wing groups.
US Targets Varied
Racist Trend "White
supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK),
neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance, and
skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."
Anti-Federalist Trend The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the early to mid-1990s with
new
groups in Montana and Michigan. Anti-government sentiments existed
from the birth of the nation were anti-taxation, gun rights, and a
“survivalist” lifestyle. The “farm
crises” of the 1980s, and rapid
cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and
environmental legislation caused a fairly
ideologically cohesive movement, as well as its rapid growth.2
Fundamentalist Trend Mainly Christian
identity groups such as the Aryan Nations, merges religious
fundamentalism with traditional white supremacy and racist
tendencies. It promotes ideas of nativism, exclusionism, and
racial superiority via a unique interpretation of religious
texts that focus on division of humanity according to primordial
attributes.
The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud
Sprinzak published a paper on the irredentist Israeli religion-political
movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the Faithful) entitled “The
Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”6
The U.S. repatriated about 400,000 Mexicans from 1929 to 1934.
"Politicians at that time argued that it would give jobs to American workers and
attenuate the unemployment problems caused by the Great Depression. ... Overall,
not only did politicians’ claims not materialize, but it seems like the
repatriation program may have hurt some native workers. Specifically, the
repatriation of Mexicans, who were mostly laborers and farm workers, reduced
demand for other jobs in the local economy mainly held by natives," Jongkwan
Lee, Giovanni Peri and Vasil Yasenov write in an Institute
of Labor Economics discussion paper.
475,000: In
the fiscal year to September, US Border Patrol arrested some 475,000 people
trying to enter the US without papers as families, up 342 percent from the same
period in 2018. Of those apprehended, 76,020
were minors,
that's more than during any other period on record.
0: For the first time
since it began keeping monthly records, the United States in October
resettled precisely zero refugees from abroad. This comes as the Trump
administration is cutting the overall number of refugees permitted in the United
States and tightening requirements for entry.
Definitions
"Foreign
born" and "immigrant"
are used interchangeably and refer to persons with no
U.S. citizenship at birth. This population includes
naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents,
refugees and asylums, persons on certain temporary
visas, and the unauthorized.
Geographical regions: MPI
follows the definition of Latin America as put forth by
the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, which
spans Central America (including Mexico), the Caribbean,
and South America. For more information about
geographical regions, see the U.S.
Census Bureau and United
Nations Statistics Division.
