The Future of Work
Lawrence Summers 2015
"...the idea that you can just have better training and then there
are all these jobs, all these places where there are shortages and we just
need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."
" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs.
If you help some
people, you could help them get the jobs,
but then someone else won't get
the jobs. "
Why Have Wages Been Stagnant for So Many Workers?
Fact 1: The share of economic output workers receive has generally fallen over
the past few decades.
Fact 2: Wages have risen for those in the top of the distribution but stagnated
for those in the bottom and middle.
Fact 3: The education wage premium rose sharply until about 2000,
contributing to rising wage inequality
Fact 4: Globalization and technological change have likely put downward
pressure on less-educated workers' wages
Fact 5: Wages have grown for women and fallen for men.
Fact 6: Declines in the real minimum wage and union membership have affected
Fact 7: Workers have become less likely to move to a different state or to a
different job, reducing wage growth.
Fact 8: Business formation and closings have slowed wage growth.
How Strong Has Wage Growth Been since the Great Recession?
Fact 9: Inflation-adjusted wage
growth was higher from 2007 to 2017 than it was during previous
business cycles Fact 10: Labor market slack has declined during the recovery
from the Great Recession, though some likely remains. Fact 11: Recent labor productivity growth has been slow,
restraining wage growth. Fact 12: In recent years, measured wage growth has been
depressed by changes in the workforce. Fact 13: Great Recession wage growth occurred for top
earners, but has since become more broadly shared.
wage growthis sensitive
particular method of inflation adjustment.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) deflator
implies lower real wage growth,
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator
implies higher real wage growth Technical issues also help explains wage measure differences.
Recently the CPI wagehas increased more
than the GDPproductivityincreased.
The deflator difference accounts for a third of the wage
versus productivity changes. The Atlanta Federal Reserve “Wage Tracker” for continuously employed workers shows
faster average hourly wage growth for all employees.
It still shows slower nominal growth than in the pre-2007
John Mueller's1995 statement concerning
“... no matter how much better
the present gets,
the past gets better faster..."
Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in
they are always back there somewhere.”
is a very lumpy investment where
often there is little or no payoff from having a
little bit more." ..."There are big returns to
the first years of education (the education
where one gains literacy) and big payoffs to the
last years of education (a college or graduate
degree where one distinguishes oneself from the
pack) but only small payoffs to those years of
education that move the individual from somewhat
below average to somewhat above average." 283 The
Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic
Forces Shape Tomorrow's World Source
Homicides account for one-tenth
of one percent of law enforcement offenses.
Mass shootings are a fraction of all homicides.
Injured or killed is about 4 per 10,000,000 people or
about as unlikely as being struck by lightning in
If you like to worry, worry about dying in a
car crash or a fire....
Three Poverty Rate
on CPI data
safety net programs
on Consumer Expenditure Income inequality
rose in both the top and bottom halves of the distribution, but
increases in consumption inequality are only evident in the top
half. The differences are also concentrated in single parent
families and single individuals.
Correctly, Poverty is Down Dramatically
American's Should be Proud.
Measuring economic Wellbeing
is difficult. Economic measures overstate poverty. Undervalued
Inexpensive Well-Made Asian Products are Undervalued.
Some inflation adjustments understate
Government Imposed Building Standards Are Ignored.
Poverty Rate is
It is bias
communication from the media, economist, politicians
and professionals providing inadequate,
personal ideology rather than appropriate information and
"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is
this: when it comes to financial crises,
in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces.
Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable.
Runaway private debt
and the resulting overcapacity does a better job than
any other variable in explaining and predicting
financial crises. It is our job to heed those danger
2019, p. ix)Brief History of Doom
has concise data summary Video 14 min.
Many will say "who cares"
they believe in
Modern Monetary Policy
Money Could Cause Inflation
Leading to Higher Interest Rates Requiring More Tax Dollars.
Selected Countries by value
China - $952.6 billion -
26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture
United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% employed in agriculture
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% employed in
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% employed in
France - $55.6 billion
2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion
employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion
-4.31% employed in agriculture
Was the $6.4 Trillion
Spent on Terror as Good a Decision?
Source Question: Rather
than just leaving Syria,
should Trump have proposed Europe take it over by
1) Early 20th Century
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
Failed Utopian, Totalitarian System
2) Post WW 2
Government controls key industries such as
utilities, transportation and communications.
Classic socialism dominated after World War II and
still is believed
by many older Americans.
3) Current Perception
US has Mixed Economy
Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
insurance, retirement provisions, and access to less expensive higher education.
This doesn't replace capitalism, it makes it more humane, egalitarian, and more protective.
The lack of Institutional forbearance
by a political party
under utilization of it's
Accepting the other party's
follow the letter of the law. This is
How Democracies Die.
Demand Realties 1.
Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy
2. A 2% decline in the hydrocarbon share of world
entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on
3. When the 3rd world’s poor increase energy use to
a third of
Europe’s, energy use global demand increase by twice
America’s total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in electric vehicles to 400 million
would displace 5% of global oil demand.
14.Batteries to store two-day’s of U.S. electricity demand
would require 1,000 years of production by
biggest battery factor.
Realities About Energy Economics
17. Over 30 years Investing $1
solar or wind produces 40 million and 55
shale produces 300 million kWh from natural gas
19. It costs <$0.50 to store a barrel of oil/natural
$200 to store the equivalent energy in batteries.
25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of
gas & coal, but electric rates rose 20%
because of subsidies for solar/wind.
Energy Physics Realities 26.
Transforming the energy economy is not like putting
few people on the moon, it's like
permanently putting all
of humanity on the moon.
28. If solar power could be scaled like computer-tech,
a postage-stamp size solar array would power
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery
the size of a
book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner
31. Physics limit for solar cells (the
is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into
electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech.
Physics limits for wind turbines (Betz limit) are
capture of 60% of energy in moving air;
turbines achieve 45%.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined,
processed for every pound of battery
39. A battery-centric grid and car world means
gigatons more of the earth to access
nickel, graphite, rare earths,
cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of
oil and coal
both in mining and to fabricate metals and
40. China dominates global battery production with
70% coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese
create more carbon-dioxide than
saved by replacing
oil-burning engines. See
Inconvenient Energy Realities
Editor's Notes: Because Trump's methods puts much of the
foreign policy establishment out of business,
bias concerning Trump and Foreign Policy is possible.
So, read sources for opinions.
Of course Nixon did this.
Trump is much like Reagan who knew little theory and few statistics. His belief
that capitalism was just better than Communism, This led to conflicted Russian relations
as he called them and evil empire while getting along
with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.
Questions: Why did the American people know so little about Russia's
economic chaos. Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear?
Is Trump being buddies Putin while an attempt
at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?
Millennials Aren’t Drowning in Student Debt
Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt
Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers
accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly
payments of less than $200).
B, Akers, Manhattan Inst
Forgiving Student Debts
Student receiving loan relief reduced
their use of credit cards resulting in
debt reduction by 26%
They were 11% less likely to default
on other accounts.
Borrowers' geographical mobility
increased, more changed jobs
increased by about $3000 over a three year period.
A Personal Diary 1. I helped N.H. passes a 1970's Student Loan
2. By 1989, tuition grants at Franklin Pierce
$1,000,000. Grants go to most desired students, most
others pay full tuition using state and local loans, grants,
and scholarships. A check of 990 tax forms revealed
that most use this financing/marketing.
4. Consulting firms searched the applicant pool to
determine which extra curricula activities will
generate the most cash.
6. Loans to parents become the first choice of
councilors because they can be larger and attended
colleges are not held responsible for bad debts.
7. Increased Graduate school loans were caused when
year two loans could begin the summer of year one.
Questions about private debt, rich
students/patents, graduate student.
Economic Involvement began with
on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's
presidency. Soon on
minimal state liberalism
active state liberalism
expansion began in Ernst in the 20th century. Today
Conservatives and Progressives
do battle to
control federal spending.
Analysis:While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second
with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing.
Take long vacations and retire earlier, and so they typically work
fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in
2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably
reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle,
and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally
distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:
Charles Jones and Peter
proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It
is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more
comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only
per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working
time. less is better life expectancy more is better and
inequality less is better. Analysis:
While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second
with 25% less, is only slightly ahead in wellbeing, The French
take long vacations and retire earlier so they typically work
fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in
2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably
reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet,
lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are
somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United
wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national
saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter
the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the
tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might
be ruled unconstitutional . It would be simpler to increase in
tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and
Telecommunications Act of 1996 allowed multi station company ownership
and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications
(now iHeart Media) owned over 800
US radio stations and
Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.
Citizens United v. FEC Allowed
Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship
which supported both
Sports Trash Talking Went Public Mohamed Ali
practically invented this 1960's genre
as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.
and others soon followed.
five years ago I began adding
political economy studies to
Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode
of attacks to
post WW 1 United
Anxiety increased when blacks
increased their economic and political power.
They received a more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.
White Christian middle class men and women were no longer the
center of society.
had long been acting as if the normal curve did
Education would be the great equalizer. It could solve most issues.
Then the Great Recession many hardships to rural areas and the
Belt very hard.
individual failure has continues.
Equal educational opportunity was not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and
nurture were not equally
Change was needed.
blame goes to the politicians, economists and professionals.
Economic success and political stability of 1980-2000 fostered technocrat
But, too often they provided inadequate,
bias, Information that was
not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the
It is more dangerous than the
fake news coming from lies,
Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed
by the Reagan Revolution followed by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on
many middle class white Christians.
Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back
to the beginning, to Great Society animosity.
Trump's election signified a new
It is much like
20th Century Populism episodes.
Democracy is supposed to be
troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving
populist issues to
They must take control
what some consider a
of 20th Century Western Europe is public ownership of key
industries such as RR,
transportation and communication. It also has increased concern for the disadvantaged
and substantial private property.
Note: Neoliberal economics was used by England's
Margaret Thatcher in 1979 to dismantled
Democratic and she was followed to a lesser
degree in much of Europe. In 1981 Ronald
Reagan, President of the United States followed similar policies.
Utopia was Imagined by people during the 19th
Century who believed
political equality required wealth equality.
Production was a common good.
The public, using
a democratic process, controls the state.
should determine investment goals and resulting
This is accomplished by controlling
property and investment capital. Production will be for
the common good and not for state officials.
In 19th Century Capitalism, wealth
was directed by rich private investors wanting the highest capital return.
They neglected the low return of social
goods. Socialist believe this limited
Planned It was
a reality emerging with
the Industrial Revolution.
It required investment and the reinvested of profit.
Its wealth creation soon dwarf that of European aristocracy.
Unlike socialism, capitalist did not contemplate
the virtue of wealth or the effects of industrialism on
the human condition.
Not an ideology, intellectuals did not defend it until
the 20th century
when Hayek and Friedman, among others, sought did so.
explainer Adam Smith wrote “The Wealth of Nations.” It described how
individual decisions, driven by self-interest,
culminate in an increased wealth of nations. In “The Theory of Moral
Sentiments,” Smith argument that
moral development resulted from appropriate management.
Capitalism maximized wealth, it did not limit inequality.
Investments were based on capital return expectations.
Capital would move toward maximum creation of wealth.
The process left some serving the system, excluding
Characteristics of Capitalism Private property-individuals
Freedom of enterprise-own a business
Freedom of economic choice-work/not
work, spend/not spend ...
Role of self-interest
Competitive Market System
markets operate freely
Questionable Degree of
Government Involvement a concern
Editor's Note: Most
more G for infrastructure.
Some want more G for education.
Some want more G for entitlements.
Some want more G for the safety net.
Some want more G for defense.
All politicians are buying votes.
Until economic growth picks up, all sectors will increase debt.
Politicians, the Media,
Professionals Can/Have Made
Much Money, Power and Gained Respect
by Influencing/Creating Negativity!
Knowing how the US poorly measures
I wants someone to determine exactly how well our poor live now,
have lived in the
recent past, and will live in the Future.
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a
good thing or not. 2. US policies and practices don't look all that different. 3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously
4. Almost all students lose
interest in math and science. Computers and experiments may
delay this decision, but they
also increase learning for a very few
by a very lot.
Homework may teach some to be more responsible,
but again it
learning for a very few by a very lot.
More money for teachers is usually good
but one of the best teachers I have
observed since 1950
almost all measures, a poor teacher.
Maximize a students reading ability
Teach a little practical math
Get out of the way
Postscript: We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War
2. The Civil War
3. WW 1
4. Great Depression Poverty
5. WW 2
6. War on Poverty
7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse
Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters
Who Vote for Incumbents
U.S. Has Succeeded Using Inflation
and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.
People loved dot-coms until
They loved credit default swaps until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.
“When the music stops for expandingliquidity,
will be complicated."
Chuck Prince on debt-fueled
private equity deals before
The years 1968, 1969, and 1970 had many
early baby boomers moved into their 20’s;
of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy;
movement; the draft lottery, the bombing of Cambodia,
unrest on college campuses. Woodstock, Stonewall...
Did any of these increase the impatience of the country in a
There are likely stories that could be woven, undoubtedly more
but it is unclear whether anything
could be tested.
The question is
probably too big,
but the fact is interesting.
Growing up in a rural 1950's Massachusetts
Elderly lived with their children, few had health
insurance or much income.
Poor Families lived in older house at the end of a dirt road.
Poor Children were skinny, often dirty, didn't finish HS,
pooped around and then went into military, found a trade or pumped gas.
Almost no one had air conditioning.
all benefited economically after WW 2 but
those in the bottom
were economically less well-off.
Retired in Rural 2003
Central Florida Observations
Elderly live on their own with Medicare and improved SS. Poor families lived in older lowland house or trailers. Poor Children, obesity a problem, most finish HS, try college,
go into one of many services, industry and live at home.
Poverty Rate Stuck,
which ignores the safety net,
is stuck at 15%.
Liberals misuse poverty data and Conservatives despise safety net.
Some Feel Rich Have Too Much of Our Wealth
Wealth of Lower
Income Cohorts should Includes
Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and
Help from Friends and Family.
Elderly and Children Receive Substantial
Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net
Working Means Fewer
Determine When Income is Too High to Receive
For households with more than 8, add $4,320
for each additional person. Note:
Eligibility for premium tax credits in
coverage year 2019 is based on poverty
guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty
Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.
There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning
in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to
provide worker training. To some extent this is already happening --
in 2017, according to
U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a
substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent
training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior).
Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more
companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the
publicly funded education system to do it for them.
Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely
regarded as having been successful in
suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education,
these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a
half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although
typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be
jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor
set up apprenticeships.
Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a
has made a lot of money for a lot of people.
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last
New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies..
The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.
Product Line Expanded
More than 25 percent of public high
school seniors graduating last May
took at least one AP test."
Four companies that dominate the business
of making/scoring standardized tests.
of 2011, Gaston Caperton, the president of
the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT, was
paid $1.3 million.
Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of
ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
First we were losing to Russia, then
Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe
adversaries, seldom enemies.
5. Key Questions Are the Most Productive
Affected? When and How Will They Be
High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned
that the squad was conducting “the
audits from hell.”
In 2012 the
wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of
German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes
t after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS
abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.
battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.
"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you
paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a
Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay
off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra
by rapidly pumping assets in and out.
The Very Rich
Top 400 families have more wealth
bottom 60 percent of households, while the top 0.1 percent own same as
bottom 80 percent. Source
Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent " Our preliminary estimate
is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
and roughly $800 billion in its first
Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed
marginal income tax rate on $10 million and over to finance her
Green New Deal
affects 16,000 people with income of $245 billion.
$164-382 billion over
Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it
could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the
Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50
million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an
A Trump proposal
requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the
official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used
to qualify for means-tested federal programs.
President Barack Obama’s
apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people
were provided. Source:
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of
the SS fund tried to do this.
2. Is Foreigners US Debt
Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.
When We Borrowed
Began With the Revolution
2. Mostly it was
3. Human Needs
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.
Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed
Entitlements Pose a Problem
Who Benefits from Most to
for the elderly
All benefit are the
same, high income earners pay most
health care cost difficult for many
Longer life especially for
poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases
cost. Free cases poorer health.
Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles
currently not acceptable to electorate.
income, partial at 62, max at 70,
earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and
spousal benefits See
Table 1 and
concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on
Solution just time or later retirement but
politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative
cash flow should add political pressure.
Legal deductions and
exemptions from income decrease tax collections
health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage
interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled
Tax payers don't
their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is
unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax
collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.
When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least
"...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty
rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not
using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U
would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5
to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0
percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to
match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even
more."Examples of noncash benefits
include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid,
and Medicare. See
SourceEditors Comments are
Work is Not Encouraged as Real
Minimum Wage Falls
Consequence of Safety Net Increases?
"We hold these truths to be
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator
with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the
pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights,
Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent
of the governed..."
Rights are natural. They preexist acts of
human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if
rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's
main purpose is to "secure these rights."
Human nature is permanent and statesmanship
is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord
with the nature of humans.
Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that
is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the
understanding and directing of shaping forces.
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives
want directing of society's shaping
: the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct
from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty
primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now
called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.
New Deal Progressivism
of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A
Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding
government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to
providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights. Determining the final arbiter is
always contested. Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court
of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government
operations from above and end the business cycles.
Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the
diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between
1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and
Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from
Facebook but not for twitter.
“teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party
"This happened in the 1850s: We
know what happened..."
"Things...could get plenty bad..." with a
"...serious recession or the stock market..." crash.
and ... as a nation we are no
longer capable of making preparations for such
There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion,
much more likely
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.
This gap is even larger between liberal
and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP
“partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v.
said Michael Barone.
The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might
be at stake.
In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s
had already liberalized their abortion laws,
and America would have had different laws in
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices
delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all
and the country’s defining wedge issue.
While public opinion on
cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on
It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally
about “the way people live their lives”:
who are largely secular, think their “personal
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human
Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed
because neither side believes it can afford any
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee
has literally become a matter of life and death.
U.S very good Geography that is
productive and well protected.
Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer
demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom,
Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work
force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic
regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable
The others are "terminal countries."
because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations
Near the end he new how important factors were
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.
But Obama did not
care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some
Which is worse? Actually, he is
following a neoconservative policy.
US has forced an acceleration
of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China
will fall apart.
Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China is Japans
concern. Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis. Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one
except Russia, is a nuclear concern. Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South
immigrants, globalization, and
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction
spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of
disruptions to Europe/Western
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions
contributed to these disruptions and caused many to lash
out in a
tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended
1. Great power conflict has returned
to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity,
including the west Disruptions Could Last Years Axion
#3 Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit,
or something else
would helpmoderate disruptions.
Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.
Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"
shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
Expanded South China Sea Militarism B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched
and capitalized D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism
launch/participation in world-wide initiatives E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and
Military exercises with
In a liberal Democracy, this
is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source
U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global
A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying
historical trends Recent Changes
role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to
counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on
Communist theory over policy.
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a
national vision B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now
favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis.
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result
of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning
Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise.
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic
opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua
important C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global
2. China must now control the reform of existing
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a
complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more
fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge
6. Controlling international institutions is first step E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US,
Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increasedeconomic
insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3) threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neither Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau
adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.
“the people” aredifferentially deployed by right and left and they
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension
A. Finance does affect real economy.
B. Finance system can falter.
C. Many economist wrong because of politics..
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy
A. World trade is stable because the world, through
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by
investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an
increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics
E. Source: The New Financial
Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator?
Failures Caused Latest Popularism
Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East wars
Non-Liberal Democracy success,
Poor Liberal Democracy Performance
Understanding Right and Left
Populism Right populism
defines "the people"
as those confronting an
1) Islamic terrorism
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...
Left populism defines “the people”
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for
2) allows hospitality towards the other Right
populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing insecurity and anxiety are
unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear
the stranger and apunitive state. Left populism
defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures
believing insecurity and anxiety are
caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.
recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase.
Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.
US Targets Varied
Racist Trend "White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan
(KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance, and
skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."
Anti-Federalist Trend The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the
early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan.
Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation
were anti-taxation, gun rights, and a “survivalist”
lifestyle. The “farm crises” of the 1980s, and rapid
cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and
environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive
movement, as well as its rapid growth.2
Fundamentalist Trend Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations,
merges religious fundamentalism with traditional white supremacy
and racist tendencies. It promotes ideas of nativism,
exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation
of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according
to primordial attributes.
The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud
Sprinzak published a paper on the irredentist Israeli
religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the
Faithful) entitled “The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”6
The U.S. repatriated about 400,000 Mexicans from 1929 to 1934.
"Politicians at that time argued that it would give jobs to American workers and
attenuate the unemployment problems caused by the Great Depression. ... Overall,
not only did politicians’ claims not materialize, but it seems like the
repatriation program may have hurt some native workers. Specifically, the
repatriation of Mexicans, who were mostly laborers and farm workers, reduced
demand for other jobs in the local economy mainly held by natives," Jongkwan
Lee, Giovanni Peri and Vasil Yasenov write in an Institute
of Labor Economics discussion paper.
the fiscal year to September, US Border Patrol arrested some 475,000 people
trying to enter the US without papers as families, up 342 percent from the same
period in 2018. Of those apprehended, 76,020
that's more than during any other period on record.
0: For the first time
since it began keeping monthly records, the United States in October
resettled precisely zero refugees from abroad. This comes as the Trump
administration is cutting the overall number of refugees permitted in the United
States and tightening requirements for entry.
born" and "immigrant"
are used interchangeably and refer to persons with no
U.S. citizenship at birth. This population includes
naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents,
refugees and asylums, persons on certain temporary
visas, and the unauthorized.
Geographical regions: MPI
follows the definition of Latin America as put forth by
the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, which
spans Central America (including Mexico), the Caribbean,
and South America. For more information about
geographical regions, see the U.S.
Census Bureau and United
Nations Statistics Division.