claim has been made. Examples include the phrases "some people say,"
"most people think”, and "researchers believe". These phrases allow
one to later deny any specific meaning if the statement is
challenged because the statement was never specific in the first
The capacity of humans for perilous mental contortions to align their agendas
with their self-professed moral values will probably never cease to amaze me.
Our ability to cherry-pick factsand factoids is also something to behold.
“tip stealing” rule
which would allow employers to pocket the tips of their minimum
wage employees. It was stopped by Congress when they amending
the Fair Labor Standards Act.
annual gain was
Affordable Care Act-ACL
Attempted to repeal the
Affordable Care Act-ACA.
the Supreme Court to rule the
Weakened the ACA as part
the 2017 tax cut for corporations.
Workers losing Employer
Sponsored Insurance are not helped
into ACA insurance.
Losing ACA would hurt
workers with Employer
1. Large firms with no insurance would not be penalized.
2. Benefit caps for essential health services would return.
3. Individual out-of-pocket spending caps would return.
4. Child coverage until the age of 26 would slowly disappear.
5. Maternity coverage and free preventative care mandates would
6. Waiting periods limits would slowly be extended.
At large employers, it is now common for building maintenance, security,
laundry and custodial staff not to work directly for the company they report to.
Now the Trump administration has adopted a four-factor
assess whether an indirect employer is a joint employer that would bear
responsibility for violations of minimum-wage and overtime regulations.
a narrower standard for determining joint-employer status than the
that existed under
the administration of President Barack Obama.
It expanded the
responsibilities of indirect employers in January 2016.
Franchise Association (the largest organization representing
worldwide) argues that
the broader criteria previously in place
cost U.S. franchisees between $17 and $33
Standards are discrimination
andarbitrary, but therehas to be a way
working class suffers and that those at thebottom
Networking, the most successful job strategy,
is available to
America has been, more than anytime since the Great Depression,
subjected to aselection process that applies to all American
As there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs,
the standards for hiring keep getting tighter.
standards you ask?
Age, education, health, credit, social status,
religion, culture, race, ethnicity, …
Yes, all are discrimination, all are arbitrary;
there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs there has to be a way
Universities do it, always have; there’s always
been a selection process.
Even during the Great Depression , if
you knew the right someone,
you could get a good job;
meritocracy be damned.
It is not at all as simple as ‘whitey’ has to
give ‘us’ some of what their getting;
it’s more that the whole
working class is suffering and that those at the bottom
And, this will continue unless major changes
are made to the economic model."
John Mueller's1995 statement concerning
“... no matter how much better
the present gets,
the past gets better faster..."
Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in
they are always back there somewhere.”
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a
good thing or not. 2. US policies and practices don't look all that different. 3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously
4. Almost all students lose
interest in math and science. Computers and experiments may
delay this decision, but they
also increase learning for a very few
by a very lot.
teach some to be more responsible,
but again it
learning for a very few by a very lot.
More money for teachers is usually good
one of the best teachers I have
observed since 1950
was, by almost all measures,
a poor teacher.
Maximize a students reading ability.
Teach a little practical math.
Get out of the way.
Federal Laws Have Unintended Consequences
President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting
the unionization of public employees1969
The Supreme Court,
v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the Constitution forbids local schools from
suspending students who bring political protest inside the
In dissent Justice Black wrote:
The U.S. Supreme Court, In
his dissent, Justice Black wrote:,
Goss v. Lopez,
ruled in the case of
a suspended student, a hearing was
is a very lumpy investmentwhere
often there is
little or no payoff from having a little bit more."
are big returns to the first years of education
(the education where one gains
big payoffs to the last years of education
(a college or graduate
degree where one
distinguishes oneself from the pack)
but only small payoffs to
those years of education
that move the individual from
somewhat below average to
somewhat above average."
former dean of the MIT
Sloan School of Management
The Congressional Budget Committee
should audit economic statistics and
report those that misrepresent wellbeing.
Should Poverty Rate be Renamed the Gross Poverty Rate?
See Decision 2020
Everyone complains About High Taxes
They always have! A
problem of high taxes
began when Western Massachusetts farmers
felt oppressed by a few elite
eastern merchants and politicians
who had set up the tax and legal systems to benefit themselves. See
Today: Costal States Contribute the most.
In 2016 Hillary knew this, followed the money, and lost.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
beginning January 1, 2018
reduced the federal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21% and
decreased by 31%
from 2017 to 9% of all 2017 federal revenue.
Total federal tax revenues rose 1% between 2017 to 2018,
lower than the 2.4% rate of inflation that year.
Government 10-K | USAFacts
Corporate Paying Little in Taxes
Limit "enforceability of private rights," and
"co-opting out of local law."
Example: Income sustainability
not checked, mortgage may not be enforceable.
Source: Columbia Law School Professor Katharina Pistor
In the Good
Old Days, FED's Borrowed To Finance War.
Great Depression Began Barrowing To Fight a War on Poverty.
For CV-19 We Borrow to Help
State and Local Governments, Business, Unemployed, Education
It's value adjusts for inflation
What is worth will be based on what economy can produce.
States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen. You Might Not Get Your State
Fed Debt Has
Inflation, Exchange Rate and
Interest Rate Risk.
Inflation usually follows printing too many
The Economics of Debt
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
World Production Oversupply has Kept Inflation Low.
The Political Economy of Debt
By incurring debt states
trade an element of sovereignty – ability to the
for spending excepted to the political minefield of raising
Beginning before WW1,the US has steadily gained the economic
to maintain her economic sovereignty.
"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is
this: when it comes to financial crises,
in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces.
Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable.
Runaway private debt
and the resulting overcapacity
does a better job than
any other variable in explaining and predicting
It is our job to heed those danger
Historically, We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War 2. The Civil War 3. WW 1
4. Great Depression Poverty 5. WW 2 6. War on Poverty 7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse
8. To Protect all Sectors from CV's Economic Effect
Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters
Who Vote for Incumbents
U.S. Has Succeeded by Using Inflation and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.
People loved dot-coms, until
they didn’t. They loved credit default swaps, until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.
“When the music stops
for expanding liquidity, things
will be complicated." Chuck Prince on debt-fueled private equity deals before the Financial Crisis.
Many will say "who cares"
because they believe in Modern Monetary Policy
Changes to help Voters to Make
Appropriate Collective Long-term Choices
In response to Alexander Hamilton's desire for
national direct economic development,
John Madison foresaw a National Administrative State.
damage Federalism by
currently belonging to state and local governments.
This would create and increase federal responsibilities.
By expanding federal limited powers, control would move
from the legislative branch to the
China - $952.6 billion -26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% in farming Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% in farming Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% in farming
France - $55.6 billion
-2.6% employed in agriculture Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion
employed in agriculture Spain - $42.8 billion
-4.31% employed in agriculture
Conservatism vs. Progressivism 8p
Ebbing- Social Rights Movements: Women, Minorities, Gays Growing Christian Conservative Movement against feminism,
casual premarital sex and open homosexuality and wide spread drug
use. Think Cultural Wars Life style disruptions: Technology disrupted work places and homes-
Cable, CNN, Apple
Macintosh, HP printers, Motorola mobile phone
Trump's America New Social
Movements: Me Too, Black Lives Matter, Proud Boys Christian Conservative Movement: leads takeover of Supreme
Court Life style disruptions: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Amazon
Economy Booms Capitalism and Wealth in charge
Lifestyle of the Rich and Famous. Growth Highest in
± 3 decade, Unemployment down, Inflation
Average Annual Income up 3.5%: top fifth = 9% middle class =1% and
bottom fifth -8%
Economy Tanks Capitalism and Wealth were in
Modern Monetary Theories minimalize deficits Top 1% vs. Fellowship
of the Deplorable
Great Depression rebound ends with Pandemic shutdown.
COVID hits low income earners hard, socialism rebound assistance
slowed by politics.
before society and medical profession significantly slow disease
thousands dead, medical professions offers much hope
Morning Again in
Voters decidedgovernment had gone
far: what federal aid programs should be cut, which civil rights
to limit and which to enlarge, which natural resources to
develop and which to protect
Country heading for a better future
Regan's divisive ideology was wrapped in a warm and
The best navy in Asia has 114 warships and
45,800 volunteer personnel. It's fleet has fast, powerful
destroyers, thoroughly modern diesel-electric attack
submarines, and amphibious ships that can haul tanks and
other ground forces. It can hunt submarines, square off
against invasion fleets, and shoot down enemy ballistic
missiles. Despite all of that firepower, this is not in fact
a navy at all, but an armed cohort of civil servants.
Japan Approves Record Defense Budget
of 5.3 Trillion Yen ..
1. Because Trump's policy smears our
foreign policy establishment, bias concerning Trump's Foreign Policy is possible.
Read sources for opinions.
Of course Nixon ignored FP establishment.
Trump is much like Reagan. Both knew little theory and few statistics. Reagan belied
that capitalism was just better than Communism. This led to conflicted Russian relations
as he called them and evil empire while getting along
with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.
Why did the Americans know so little about Russia's
economic chaos? Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear? Is Trump being buddies
with Putin an attempt at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?
Some US Military Spending
Protects Europe But Trump Wants to
Will Trump let them organize.
Where were Obama, Bush, Clinton?
Fewer Europeans Sacrifice
Is it time for Germany and France to Put Up or Shut Up?
Forgiving Student Debts Student receiving loan relief reduced
their use of
credit cards resulting in
debt reduction by 26%.
They were 11% less likely to default
on other accounts.
increased, more changed jobs,
increased by about $3000 over a three year.
Paper No. 25810. 6/19
M. Di Maggio,
V. Yaopurchase $5
Much of the
Debt is Held by Parents and Grandparents
Graduate Students Have the Highest Debt Per Borrower.
on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's
presidency. Soon on
minimal state liberalism
active state liberalism
Public good expansion
began in Ernst in the 20th century. Today
Conservatives and Progressivesdo battle to control
would be highly progressive, probably reduce national
saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter
the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the
tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might
be ruled unconstitutional . It would be simpler to increase in
tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and
US Has Lots
More Income, Spends a little more on Safety Net
While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second
with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing.
The French take long vacations and retire earlier, and
they typically work
fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in
2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably
reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle,
and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally
distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:
proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It
is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more
comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only
per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working
time. less is better life expectancy more is better and
inequality less is better.
Europe is More
in Her Approach to Unemployment.
Will COVID Move
European Unemployment Approach
Does US Have Enough Socialism?
Who Benefits from Most to Least
Federal and State healthcare
tied to income.
Americans children, pregnant women, parents, seniors, and individuals
Instability of income changes eligibility and resulting health care.
Multiple programs with both state and federal management
creates excessive cost and unequal coverage. Cost incurred by emergency
care passed on by hospitals to private insurers who pass it on to
consumers. Solution Medicare For All
is not acceptable to the electorate.
for the elderly
All benefit are the same,
high income earners pay most
difficult for many
especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care,
will increases cost. Free causes poorer health.
Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, and higher deductibles
is not acceptable to the electorate.
income, partial at
62, max at 70,
Low income earners receive
a higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See
Table 1 and
baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote. SS
Benefits are 100% Secure but their real value depends on
Solution: later retirement
not acceptable to the electorate.
Projected negative cash flow could
add political pressure.
Legal deductions and
exemptions from income decrease tax collections
health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage
interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled
foreign corporations, inheritance
Tax payers don't
their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution: Setting limits is
unacceptable to electorate.
Treating both inheritance and nonprofit donations as
taxable income is not acceptable to the electorate.
1. Make employer
sponsored health programs over ten years with 1/55 the first year.
2/55 the second year, and 10/55 the third rear. 2. Make new born children from conception through year one
part of Medicare. Increase child's insurable age by a year until age
3. Resulting free market adjustments should determined program changes. Source:
Entitlements Require Political Action
1) 19th and 20th
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
These Planned Systems were either Communal or Authoritarian. Location: Eastern Europe.
2. Post WW 2 Democratic Socialism
Government controls key industries such as utilities,
transportation and communications.
Stresses social Welfare.
Many older Americans still use this definition. Location: Western Europe
Geography Enhances Social Stress will continues.
3) Current Mixed Economy Socialism
Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health insurance, retirement provisions, and
access to less expensive higher education.
Makes capitalism more
humane, egalitarian, and more protective.
Location United States Concerns:
Geographically Limits Social Stress to cycles.
Large public investments over the
next 10 years.
Much Government Spending minimized Covid's recession more than Great Recession
A Large expansion of health
care is short of the progressive Medicare for Al plans
$3.375 trillion tax increase over 10
year with most coming from the top
3. Associate Socialism with
Totalitarian Communism Russia Confined wealth to party
members and by limiting wealth creation, had equality of poverty .
China created and distributed wealth with more market capitalism but
CPC fears of potential unrest create an uncertain future.
evolved the legal sphere of private actors
who can now pick and choose from legal systems of
England, New York state, and for corporate law you can add
The states is deeply involved in the creation of legal
privilege at every level of all markets. How private
parties use the coercive power to organize their private
affairs and bank on enforceability is instrumental to
understanding the financial crisis.
Protection of a property rights had been socialized.
20th century bank bailouts.
Political Parties Began to
FDR kept control
of the Democratic Party by
excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.
Northern Democrats began catering to blacks.
LBJ sealed the change with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
Roe v. Wade added fuel to the fire.
South became Republican, Coasts became Democratic.
Reagan sealed the breach and political polarity intensified.
Telecommunications Act of 1996 allowed multi-station company ownership
and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications
(now iHeart Media) owned over 800
US radio stations and
Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.
Sports Trash Talking Went Public Mohamed Ali
practically invented this 1960's genre
as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.
and others soon followed.
by this Amanda
is irresolvable and will continue even when
the associated problems are solvable.
Social Psychologist Peter T. Coleman's book,
about 1 in every 20 conflicts are this way.
“Once we are drawn in, they take control,”
They enrage, trap frustrate, drain
our energy/critical resources, and will never go away.
1,000 Americans found 40 percent of both Republicans
and Democrats thought the
other party was downright evil.
Five to 15 percent of both parties would support some level of violence
their political opponents.
A minority of ‘... haters’ can have more influence than a majority
his book “Emotions
In high conflict, our brains behave differently.
anger and hatred rule.
Sometimes anger can be useful.
It can support reconciliation, taking risks in
Hatred assumes the enemy is unchangeable, irredeemable, and unimprovable.
We can get the minority of haters to stop hating because
a peace message lowers Americas’ support for
condemnation for the Charlottesville racist violence,
dropped for partisan voters.
Joe Biden's similar peace
an Antifa attack
on a conservative journalist also lowered support for
How to Reset a Mind Set
An ingrained negativity bias leads to a perpetual sense of crisis,
a feeling that things are getting worse—even when things are getting better.
The Wall Street Journal
I recently began adding
political economy studies to
Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode to
the post WW 1 United
Anxiety increased when blacks
increased their economic and political power.
They received more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.
White Christian middle class men and women were no longer the
center of society.
had long been acting as if the normal curve did
not apply to academic education.
It would be the great equalizer and solve most issues.
They were wrong. This failure added to our anxiety.
Then the Great Recession created many hardships in rural areas and the
Government efforts helped few-mainly
ambitious individual who had move to urban areas.
Equal educational opportunities were not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and
nurture were not equally
Change was needed.
blame goes to the politicians, economists and other professionals.
Economic success and political stability from 1980-2000 fostered
often technocrats provided inadequate,
bias Information that was
not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the real
It is more dangerous than the
fake news coming from lies,
Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed
by the Reagan Revolution and then by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on
many middle class white Christians.
Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back
to the beginning,
to their Great Society/ Roe v Wade animosity.
Trump's election signified a new
It is much like our
20th Century Populism Episodes.
Democracy is supposed to be
troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving
who may take control
what some consider a
Regardless of system, paying taxes is hated and
receiving benefits loved.
Political system decides who pays taxes and
pander to voters.
Politician differ on taxes and purpose but
fearing anarchy, must balance the system.
As a result, modern capitalism
and social democracy distinctions are minimal.
socialism now a
Democratic Party consideration.
Donald Trump won the votes
of a dissatisfied
The Democrats had mistakenly replaced a New
Deal cohort with many cohorts.
Their current Mixes Economy approach to
meeting cohort needs will
determine their 2020 convention winner.
Discussion of socialism indicates a commitment to
unspecified radical change.
But the massive convergence between French Revolution
socialists and capitalism in the 19th and
20th century means there is little economic
system change available.
Has Savings But It is Not Counted as Wealth
Any Increase in Taxes
Will Slow Growth and Progress
Recent Economic System Development
Socialism was a
moral movement of intellectuals who loathed inequality,
despised the intellectual shallowness of the rich, and
sought to bring life to their visions.
Capitalism is not especially
it is a reality of the industrial revolution.
Socialist imagined a socialist
Socialist believe political equality requires wealth equality.
Production is for the common good.
Some felt private control of
investment flawed capitalism
as wealth creation went to the rich who reinvesting for
highest capital return. This meant that low return of social
were neglected. Socialist believe this limited
The public, using
a democratic process, controls the state. States
should determine investment goals and resulting
strategy. This is accomplished by controlling
property and investment capital. Production will be for
the common good and not for state officials.
collective ownership of economic factors of
production and state management of equally distributed
developed after WW
in war torn Western Europe. The key
public ownership of key
transportation and communication
industries. It also has showed increased concerns
and spent additional resources to help the
Neoliberal economics was used by England's
Margaret Thatcher in 1979 to dismantled
England's brand of Socialism.
She was followed, in much of Europe. In 1981,
President Ronald Reagan followed her policies to reverse the social and
being won, often over the object of the Supreme
The expensive socialist programs of SS
Medicare/Medicate and tax-expenditures were not
only not touched- they were expanded.
individual ownership of economic factors of
free competitive markets
of resulting production.
Recent Application Mixed Economy developed in the United States
late 19th century. Being a Republic, the people decided the economic
the distribution of wealth.
Phase 1 had the people slowly took
more control value created by demanding health,
safety and wage concession from Gilded Age capitalists.
Phase 2 was a response to the Great
a public/private partnership to help the unemployed-farmers,
began the regulation of banking-finance, and
created a safety net system led by social security.
Phase 3 had LBJ adding to Medicare
Neoliberal economists led the fight to remove many
the mixed economy regulations designed
middle class suffering and they also cut back on
programs. These attempts failed and the
Great Recession may begin a new phase.
Note: 19th Century Capitalism wealth
was managed by owners wanting the highest capital return.
They neglected the low return of social
goods. Democratic Socialist believe this limited
Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net
Working Means Fewer
Determine When Income is Too High to Receive
For households with more than 8, add $4,320
for each additional person. Note:
Eligibility for premium tax credits in
coverage year 2019 is based on poverty
guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty
"Last week, the Trump administration released its
requestwhich would cut Department of Education outlays by 8 percent while
in how federal school dollars are allocated."
Switching to a block grant allotment of funds is
a good idea.
Give x dollars for an existing underfunded
with no guidelines.
Just someone keeping an eye that it goes for y and not
Brandeis Laboratories of democracy used to allocate
funds for all programs
and get the WW 2 approach to expert driven complicated
programs that can not be managed. Inspired by
President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting
unionization of public employees
the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker
v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local
schools from suspending students who bring political protest inside
In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:,
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of
grammar schools, or high
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep
their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a
new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered
by the judiciary."
the Court ruled in
the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required. In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."
Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.
There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning
in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to
provide worker training. To some extent, this is already happening --
in 2017, according to
U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a
substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent
training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior).
Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more
companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the
publicly funded education system to do it for them.
Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely
regarded as having been successful in
suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education,
these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a
half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although
typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be
jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor
set up apprenticeships.
Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a
has made a lot of money for a lot of people.
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last
New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies..
The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.
Product Line Expanded
More than 25 percent of public high
school seniors graduating last May
took at least one AP test."
Four companies that dominate the business
of making/scoring standardized tests.
of 2011, Gaston Caperton, the president of
the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT, was
paid $1.3 million.
Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of
ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
First we were losing to Russia, then
Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe
adversaries, seldom enemies.
5-5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive
Affected? When and How Will They Be
the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel
ultra-wealthy ax dodges.
had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began
slashing the agency’s budget.
High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned
that the squad was conducting “the
audits from hell.”
In 2012 the
wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of
German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes
Then, after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS
abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.
battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.
"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you
paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a
Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay
off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra
by rapidly pumping assets in and out.
The Very Rich
Top 400 families have more wealth
bottom 60 percent of households,
while the top 0.1 percent own same as
bottom 80 percent.
Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent " Our preliminary estimate
is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
and roughly $800 billion in its first
Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed
marginal income tax rate on $10 million and over to finance her
Green New Deal
affects 16,000 people with income of $245 billion.
$164-382 billion over
Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it
could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the
Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50
million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an
A Trump proposal
requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the
official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used
to qualify for means-tested federal programs.
President Barack Obama’s
apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people
were provided. Source:
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of
the SS fund tried to do this.
2. Is Foreigners US Debt
Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.
When We Borrowed
Began With the Revolution
2. Mostly it was
3. Human Needs
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.
Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed
Entitlements Pose a Problem
Who Benefits from Most to
for the elderly
All benefit are the
same, high income earners pay most
health care cost difficult for many
Longer life especially for
poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases
cost. Free cases poorer health.
Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles
currently not acceptable to electorate.
income, partial at 62, max at 70,
earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and
spousal benefits See
Table 1 and
concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on
Solution just time or later retirement but
politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative
cash flow should add political pressure.
Legal deductions and
exemptions from income decrease tax collections
health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage
interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled
Tax payers don't
their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is
unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax
collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.
When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least
"...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty
rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not
using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U
would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5
to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0
percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to
match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even
more."Examples of noncash benefits
include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid,
and Medicare. See
SourceEditors Comments are
Work is Not Encouraged as Real
Minimum Wage Falls
Consequence of Safety Net Increases?
"We hold these truths to be
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator
with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the
pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights,
Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent
of the governed..."
Rights are natural. They preexist acts of
human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if
rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's
main purpose is to "secure these rights."
Human nature is permanent and statesmanship
is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord
with the nature of humans.
Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that
is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the
understanding and directing of shaping forces.
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives
want directing of society's shaping
: the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct
from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty
primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now
called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.
New Deal Progressivism
of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A
Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding
government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to
providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights. Determining the final arbiter is
always contested. Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court
of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government
operations from above and end the business cycles.
In response to Hamilton's desire for
national direction for economic development,
Madison foresaw an Administrative
state which would
damage Federalism by
responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and the resulting
increase in new
responsibilities. It would then expand its limited powers by moving power
from legislative branch to the
Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the
diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between
1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and
Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from
Facebook but not for twitter.
“teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party
"This happened in the 1850s: We
know what happened..."
"Things...could get plenty bad..." with a
"...serious recession or the stock market..." crash.
and ... as a nation we are no
longer capable of making preparations for such
There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion,
much more likely
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.
This gap is even larger between liberal
and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP
“partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v.
said Michael Barone.
The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might
be at stake.
In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s
had already liberalized their abortion laws,
and America would have had different laws in
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices
delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all
and the country’s defining wedge issue.
While public opinion on
cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on
It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally
about “the way people live their lives”:
who are largely secular, think their “personal
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human
Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed
because neither side believes it can afford any
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee
has literally become a matter of life and death.
U.S very good Geography that is
productive and well protected.
Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer
demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom,
Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work
force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic
regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable
The others are "terminal countries."
because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations
Near the end he new how important factors were
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.
But Obama did not
care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some
Which is worse? Actually, he is
following a neoconservative policy.
US has forced an acceleration
of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China
will fall apart.
Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China is Japans
concern. Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis. Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one
except Russia, is a nuclear concern. Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South
immigrants, globalization, and
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction
spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of
disruptions to Europe/Western
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions
contributed to these disruptions and caused many to lash
out in a
tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended
1. Great power conflict has returned
to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity,
including the west Disruptions Could Last Years Axion
#3 Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit,
or something else
would helpmoderate disruptions.
Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.
Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"
shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
Expanded South China Sea Militarism B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched
and capitalized D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism
launch/participation in world-wide initiatives E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and
Military exercises with
In a liberal Democracy, this
is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source
U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global
A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying
historical trends Recent Changes
role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to
counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on
Communist theory over policy.
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a
national vision B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now
favors Chinas according to Marxian dialectic analysis.
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result
of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning
Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise.
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic
opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua
important C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global
2. China must now control the reform of existing
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a
complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more
fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge
6. Controlling international institutions is first step E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US,
Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increasedeconomic
insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3) threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neither Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau
adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.
“the people” aredifferentially deployed by right and left and they
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension
A. Finance does affect real economy.
B. Finance system can falter.
C. Many economist wrong because of politics..
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy
A. World trade is stable because the world, through
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by
investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an
increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics
E. Source: The New Financial
Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator?
Failures Caused Latest Popularism
Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East wars
Non-Liberal Democracy success,
Poor Liberal Democracy Performance
Understanding Right and Left
Populism Right populism
defines "the people"
as those confronting an
1) Islamic terrorism
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...
Left populism defines “the people” as
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for
2) allows hospitality towards the other Right
populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear
the stranger and apunitive state. Left populism
defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures
believing insecurity and anxiety are
caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.
recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase.
Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.
US Targets Varied
Racist Trend "White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan
(KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance,
skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."
Anti-Federalist Trend The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the
early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan.
Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation
were anti-taxation, gun rights, and a “survivalist”
The “farm crises” of the 1980s, and rapid
cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and
environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive
movement, as well as its rapid growth.2
Fundamentalist Trend Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations,
merges religious fundamentalism with
traditional white supremacy
and racist tendencies.
It promotes ideas of nativism,
exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation
of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according
to primordial attributes.
The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud
Sprinzak published a paper o
n the irredentist Israeli
religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the
“The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”6