Work  Education    Health    Safety   Poverty

Taxes    Debt   Government

Civility    Populism   Immigration

    Socialism   Terror   Fake News   The Bottom Line

2020 Election    See  Decision 2020

Updated and Improved Continually 11/26/19

Were Workers Betrayed by Capitalism

See Post WW 2 US Economic Normality  and Post WW 2 World Economic Normality

Democracy Awards Many Resources to Capital and Enterprise

Outsourcing helped
 Maintain and eventually increase profit.

 #1 US Manufacturing moved South out of Northeast and Midwest.

#2 Manufacturing and Middle Skilled Work moved out of US.

#3 US Pressure caused Foreign Manufacturing to
move to US low cost locations helping wage growth.

# 4 China created jobs assembling parts from other Asian countries.

#5 Jobs moving out of China to lower cost country.

#6 China increased wages.

#7 China began moving up the product value chain.

See Jobs Leave With or Without Outsourcing

Middle-Skill Jobs Suffered

see Who Gets the Money?

Who Gets the Money   

The Future of Work    
Lawrence Summers 2015

"...the idea that you can just have better training and then there are all these jobs, all these places where there are shortages and
we just need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."

" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs.
 If you help some people, you could help them get the jobs,
 but then someone else won't get the jobs. "

Source The Future of Work   

You Should Know About

Why Have Wages Been Stagnant for So Many Workers?
Fact 1: The share of economic output workers receive has generally fallen over the past few decades.
Fact 2: Wages have risen for those in the top of the distribution but stagnated for those in the bottom and middle.
Fact 3: The education wage premium rose sharply until about 2000, contributing to rising wage inequality
Fact 4: Globalization and technological change have likely put downward pressure on less-educated workers' wages
Fact 5: Wages have grown for women and fallen for men.
Fact 6: Declines in the real minimum wage and union membership have affected
Fact 7: Workers have become less likely to move to a different state or to a different job, reducing wage growth.
Fact 8: Business formation and closings have slowed wage growth.

How Strong Has Wage Growth Been since the Great Recession?
Fact 9: Inflation-adjusted wage growth was higher from 2007 to 2017 than it was during previous business cycles
Fact 10: Labor market slack has declined during the recovery from the Great Recession, though some likely remains.
Fact 11: Recent labor productivity growth has been slow, restraining wage growth.
Fact 12: In recent years, measured wage growth has been depressed by changes in the workforce.
Fact 13: Great Recession wage growth occurred for top earners, but has since become more broadly shared.

Cumulative real wage growth is sensitive
to the particular method of inflation adjustment.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) deflator implies lower real wage growth,
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator implies higher real wage growth
Technical issues also help explains wage measure differences.
Recently the CPI wage has increased more than the GDP productivity increased.
The deflator difference accounts for a third of the wage differences versus productivity changes.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve “Wage Tracker” for continuously employed workers shows
average hourly wage growth for all employees. It still shows slower nominal growth than in the pre-2007 period.

Economists are rethinking the numbers on inequality







Income growth and its distribution from Eisenhower to Obama: The growing importance of in-kind transfers.


John Mueller's 1995 statement concerning Retrospection Bias.
“... no matter how much better the present gets,
 the past gets better faster..."

Golden ages " happen,
but we are never actually in them:
they are always back there somewhere.”

Decision 2020 Options for Work

1. College    2. Federal Involvement

1. College


Source: Is Financial Aid Welfare?

Education System Worked For Many    

But Some Need a Radically New Approach

Many of the 15% who stopped Looking for Work likely didn't finish HS.

Question: Why do educators much time preaching education is a life-long process
and as much time saying we need to cover more and more academic stuff?

See  Improving American Primary and Secondary Education

Part 2






It's the real Fake News.  Source: Manhattan Institute  

2016 HS Graduates With Good Job

25-44 ≥ $35,000

45 -65 ≥ $45,000

1) HS or Less 12.9 million

2) Some College: 15.7 million had good jobs

3) Bachelor's Degree or More 36.3 million



7) Lester Thurow stated "Education is a very lumpy investment where often there is little or no payoff from having a little bit more."  ..."There are big returns to the first years of education (the education where one gains literacy) and big payoffs to the last years of education (a college or graduate degree where one distinguishes oneself from the pack) but only small payoffs to those years of education that move the individual from somewhat below average to somewhat above average." 283 The Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World Source

Leaders Educational Advise: Opinions Matter


The Merit Aid-Illusion

Uncle Sam is calling in chips.

Are College Marketing Efforts Useful?

Collections of delinquent student loans

See Interesting Thoughts Concerning Education


Editor's Comments:

Admission to a top university
should not be "the" top education issue.

1. Selective Colleges Especially Help Poor and Wealthy Students

Earnings boost from going to a top college, by parents' income

See Top Universities Make a Difference?

How we education average students
is a much more important issue.


See  Improving American Education

See Decision 2020 Education

Please share!


Teenagers are Healthier

U.S. teen birth rate has fallen dramatically over time


But we Have Work to do!




See Improving Health



Children are Safer
Autos were Much Safer



But School Shootings Up
 Fatalities Up to 55 in 2018


3,037 Fewer Teenage Fatalities
from Injuries Occurred in 2018.

See Data Since 1990s Peak

Everyone is Safer, But

Have We Become Too Paranoid About Mass Shootings?
Mass shootings in context

Homicides account for one-tenth of one percent of law enforcement offenses.
 Mass shootings are a fraction of all homicides.
 Injured or killed is about 4 per 10,000,000 people or
about as unlikely as being struck by lightning in 2016.
If you like to worry, worry about dying in a  car crash or a fire....

Is there a better way to help children?


Poverty Rate is Stuck?


Safety Net Helps Many

Why are resources expended to help the poor not included in determining the Official Poverty Rate!
Adjusting for many variable are needed to properly measure our efforts unless you want more or less spent!


Three Poverty Rate Measurements
-based on CPI data
-includes safety net programs
-based on Consumer Expenditure
Income inequality rose in both the top and bottom halves of the distribution, but increases in consumption inequality are only evident in the top half. The differences are also concentrated in single parent families and single individuals.


Measured Correctly, Poverty is Down Dramatically
American's Should be Proud.

Our Poor are Living Better



Read the full Report






Better than the
World's Average Person


Editor's Notes:

Measuring economic Wellbeing is difficult.
Economic measures overstate poverty.
Undervalued Inexpensive Well-Made Asian Products are Undervalued.
Some inflation adjustments understate
wage increases.
Government Imposed Building Standards Are Ignored.

U.S. Poverty Rate is Fake News Why?
It is bias communication from the media, economist, politicians
and professionals providing inadequate,  concerned with
personal ideology rather than appropriate information and theories.

Highlights of the New 2018 Census Bureau

The Good

1. The Official Poverty Measure fell to 11.8%, the lowest it has been since 11.7% in 2001,
     which was the  end of the 1990s expansion, and before that, not since the late 1960s.

2. This data from  ignores noncash benefits such as SNAP, health benefits, and subsidized housing.
    Such benefits have grown 16 times faster than anti-poverty benefits counted as income.

3. Full-time, full-year workers poverty rate was 2.3% percent in 2018.
    For those aged 18 to 64 who did not work it, was 29.7%.

    For families headed by married couples it, was 4.7%.
    For those headed by a  single female it, was 24.9%.

    For “no spouse present,” income increased 5.8%.

    Female full-time, full-year median real earnings rose 40% since the 1970s..
    Male full-time, full-year real median earnings were flat.

See Annual Report on U.S. Consumption Poverty: 2018

The Bad

Adults over age 25 without a high school diploma poverty rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%.

The South high poverty rate of 13.6% was the only region not to decline.

Primary Sources  Official Poverty Measure  Supplemental Poverty Measure

The Congressional Budget Committee
should audit economic statistics and report those that misrepresent wellbeing.

Question:  Should Poverty Rate be Renamed the Poverty Eligibility Rate?

Learn About    Poverty Demographics       The Working Poor

See Decision 2020 Poverty Considerations

Tax Rates Went Down

Government Debt Increased


Federal Share of GDP
Changed Little



Editor's Note: CBO Budget Projections
 Are Notoriously Poor.

IRS budget cuts resulted in $34.3 billion in lost tax large firm revenue.

Why isn't the IRS on commission?


Here is Another Job for the CBO

More Tax Analysis

Prelude : Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes
C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?


Federal Debt
Two Kinds

1. Bonds/Notes pay interest to owners.
2. Dollars
pay no interest.
3. Transactions only occur in dollars

which the FED prints as needed.


You Will Get Your FED Retirement Check.
It's value, by today's rules, adjusts for inflation.
States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen.
You Might Not Get Your State Retirement.

BUT FED Debt Has Risk
Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate

Printing too many dollars
 has historically caused inflation.

Debt increases demand.
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
World Oversupply Keeps Inflation Low.

  A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises.

"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is this: when it comes to financial crises, we're not in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces. Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable. Runaway private debt and the resulting overcapacity does a better job than any other variable in explaining and predicting financial crises. It is our job to heed those danger signs."
(Vague 2019, p. ix)
 Brief History of Doom (INET) has concise data summary Video 14 min.

Editor's Note: Public Debt Concerns are Not Financial.
Who receives the money and
what is bought concerns many.

Symposia Historical Evolution  Money and Debt



Supporters of High Debt Say
Interest Cost Are Low

Many Predict Trouble

 U.S. Debt: Is It the Calm Before the Storm? podcast: knowledge@Wharton


Inflation/Growth Historically
 Lowered Relative Debt

Many will say "who cares" because they believe in
Modern Monetary Policy


FED Printing Money Could Cause Inflation Leading to Higher Interest Rates Requiring More Tax Dollars.


  Selected Countries by value

Inefficient   Reasonably efficient   World Leader

China - $952.6 billion - 26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture

United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% employed in agriculture
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% employed in agriculture
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% employed in agriculture
France - $55.6 billion - 2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion --2.57% employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion -4.31% employed in agriculture


Was the $6.4 Trillion Spent on Terror as Good a Decision?

Question: Rather than just leaving Syria,
should Trump have proposed Europe take it over by 6/30/20.


















See Should the Federal Debt be Paid  from class notes I first wrote in 1966.

Government Spending Grew
17.5% to 21.5% of GDP

People Got More, Defense Got Less

Everyone Got More
Some Got More Than Others
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!

An example of the unintended consequences of government support is increased Social Security benefits paralleled the decrease in the personal savings rate. Government Deficits Fund Private Savings.

Government Spends
About 21% of GDP








Young People More Socialistic
Changing Perceptions of Socialism

1) Early 20th Century
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
A Failed Utopian, Totalitarian System

2) Post WW 2
Government controls key industries such as utilities, transportation and communications. Classic socialism dominated after World War II and
 still is believed by many older Americans.

3) Current Perception
US has Mixed Economy

Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health insurance, retirement provisions, and access to less expensive higher education. This doesn't replace capitalism, it makes it more humane, egalitarian, and more protective.

Scandinavian Nordic model,
popularized by Democrat Sander, includes a comprehensive welfare state and multi-level collective bargaining, with a high percentage of the workforce unionized, while being based on the economic foundations of free market capitalism.

Many associate socialism with totalitarian Communism.

Source Socialism: a short-primer See   
Democratic Socialism Basics video

Learn About

Who What, Where, When and Why We Borrow

See Decision 2020 Government  Considerations

1) Is Median Wealth Understated?


2) Paul Krugman Agrees With Young People

"On fiscal and economic responsibility:

Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times.


3. Do We Spoil Our Elderly?


A Republic is a free, equal, self-ruling government of people.

Limits on Democracy and Majority Rule
1. All are Guaranteed Individual Rights
2. Constitutional protects minority from majority.
3. Supreme Court manages evolving constitution.


A Democracy requires majority rule because people disagree.
See Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic

Politics in America



Politics in Our Democratic Federalist Republic is difficult.
As a centrist, I do not want an extremist US President.

The lack of Institutional forbearance by a political party
is the
under utilization of it's power.
Accepting the other party's legitimacy means
not always
follow the letter of the law. This is  How Democracies Die.

A decisive centrist, a healer like Michael Bloomberg is required.



1. More for the Middle Class?

Analysis: American capitalism has been too successful.
America's Democracy-not so much!  

Government spent more, took in less.

Concerns: Middle Class Wellbeing, Mobility...

2. Which Sacrifice?

 Democrats want sacrifices
to lower potential climate change cost.
Trump wants sacrifices to lower potential cost of
China Hegemonic Growth.

Editor: Cost and Benefits of Both are Unpredictable!

See Writing the Green New Deal?
U.S. Strategic Geopolitical Plan Update


ROI on Energy Subsidies

source: energy subsidies paper


Oil/Gas Got the Most Help

Koch Families Opinions of Interest

Energy Demand Realties
1. Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy
2. A 2% decline in the hydrocarbon share of world energy use
    entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on
3. When the 3rd world’s poor increase energy use to a third of
    Europe’s, energy use global demand increase by twice
    America’s total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in electric vehicles to 400 million by 2040
    would displace 5% of global oil demand.
14. Batteries to store two-day’s of U.S. electricity demand
      would require 1,000 years of production by world’s
      biggest battery factor.

Realities About Energy Economics

17. Over 30 years Investing $1 million returns:
      solar or wind produces  40 million and 55 million kWh
      shale produces 300 million kWh from natural gas

19. It costs <$0.50 to store a barrel of oil/natural gas and
      $200 to store the equivalent energy in batteries.
25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of natural
       gas & coal, but electric rates rose 20% since 2008
       because of subsidies for solar/wind.

Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute,
and author of Work in the Age of Robots by Encounter Books.



Energy Physics Realities
26. Transforming the energy economy is not like putting a
       few people on the moon, it's like permanently putting all
       of humanity on the moon.
28. If solar power could be scaled like computer-tech,
       a postage-stamp size solar array would power
       the Empire State Building.
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery the size of a
      book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner to Asia.
31. Physics limit for solar cells (the Shockley-Queisser limit)
      is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into
      electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech.
      Physics limits for wind turbines (Betz limit) are
      a max capture of 60% of energy in moving air;
      commercial turbines achieve 45%.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined, moved and
       processed for every pound of battery fabricated.
39. A battery-centric grid and car world means mining
       gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper,
       nickel, graphite, rare earths,
       cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal
       both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete.
40. China dominates global battery production with its grid
       70% coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese batteries will
       create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing
       oil-burning engines.
See Decoupling-Debunked  
    Source: Inconvenient Energy Realities


Trump's Trade War
Becoming a Geopolitical War

Like the Cold War, Winning Will Sacrifice Required.

Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass on China Trade Deal   
Both agree a move to confrontational capitalism is warranted. Tom Friedman agrees on the seriousness of the issues.

Parag Khanna Google’s pulling Huawei's Android
 license is 'intimately connected' to US-China trade war.
 See Trump’s Foreign Policy Is No Longer Unpredictably

Editor's Notes: Because Trump's methods puts much of the foreign policy establishment out of business, bias concerning Trump and Foreign Policy is possible. So, read sources for opinions.
Of course Nixon did this.

2. Trump is much like Reagan who knew little theory and few statistics. His belief that capitalism was just better than Communism, This led to conflicted Russian relations as he called them and evil empire while getting along with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.

Questions: Why did the American people know so little about Russia's economic chaos. Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear? Is Trump being buddies Putin while an attempt
 at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?


Trump’s Foreign Policy Requires Sacrifice










Trump's Military Spending Requires Continuing Sacrifice


Learn About:

Grand Strategy of Western Leaders
China, Russia, and U.S. Geopolitical Rivals? 
Trump's New Geopolitical Era




Some US Military Spending Protects Europe

Fewer Europeans Sacrifice

China's Economic Miracle in Context


Schooling is Better
 But Rural Areas Will be Slow


Borrowing Could Be a Problem!

3. Forgiving Student Loans?

Millennials Aren’t Drowning in Student Debt
Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt  Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers  accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly payments of less than $200). B, Akers, Manhattan Inst

  Benefits from Forgiving Student Debts
Student receiving loan relief reduced their use of credit cards resulting in debt reduction by 26%

They were 11% less likely to default on other accounts.

Borrowers' geographical mobility increased, more changed jobs and income increased by about $3000 over a three year period.

NBER Working Paper No. 25810. 6/19 Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda, Vincent Yao   purchase this paper on-line  from  $5

A Personal Diary
1. I helped N.H. passes a 1970's Student Loan Program.
2. By 1989, tuition grants at Franklin Pierce College reached
    $1,000,000. Grants go to most desired students, most
    others pay full tuition using state and local loans, grants,
    and scholarships. A check of 990 tax forms revealed
    that most use this financing/marketing. 
4. Consulting firms searched the applicant pool to
    determine which extra curricula activities will
    generate the most cash.
6. Loans to parents become the first choice of college
    councilors because they can be larger and attended
    colleges are not held responsible for bad debts.
7. Increased Graduate school loans were caused when
    year two loans could begin the summer of year one.

Questions about private debt, rich students/patents, graduate student.

 See Economics of Investing in a College Education

See Investing in College

4. A Need for Socialism?

Government Economic Involvement began with Hamiltonian Economics
which centering  on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's presidency. Soon on politicians battled minimal state liberalism (today's conservatism) and active state liberalism (today's liberalism). Public good expansion began in Ernst in the  20th century. Today Conservatives and Progressives do battle to control federal spending.






Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing.
The French

Take long vacations and retire earlier, and so they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States),  presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:

Are Americans Better Off than they were a Decade or Two-Ago B. Bernanke

Charles Jones and Peter Klenow proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working time. less is better life expectancy more is better and inequality less is better. Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, is only slightly ahead in wellbeing, The French take long vacations and retire earlier so they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States),  presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States.

A wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might be ruled unconstitutional .  It would be simpler to increase in tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and gift taxes.

Understanding Issues Changed Attitudes!

Consider Reality When Voting

Tax Policies


Editor: Will Investigate When Candidates are Determined.




See Decision 2020
Considerations and Recommendations

Socialism is the Latest Battle

Learn More About 2020 Election

Conservatism vs. Progressivism   Election of 1795 Begins the Battle

Determining Political Power and "We the People"    Geopolitics

Trump's Grade 8/19 Report       The economic myths Democrats peddled at debate Ramesh Ponnuru | Bloomberg Opinion

20th Century Civility Temporarily Improve

Adolph Ochs bought the NYT in 1898.
He responded to many Yellow Journalism competitors with

"All The News That's Fit To Print."
Result was more congenial media for 100 years.

Recently: Civility Declined, Animosity, and Polarity Increased

 1. Were Supreme Court Actions the Cause?
State Redistricting Plans, Schools Integration/busing/housing, Abortion
Trouble began when Federal efforts went beyond stopping Jim Crow laws.

2. Has Political Control Affected Civility
Political Parties Began to polarize when
FDR kept control of the Democratic Party by
excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.

Northern Democrats began catering to blacks.

LBJ sealed the change with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
South became Republican, Coasts became Democratic.

Reagan sealed the breach and political really polarity intensified.

How States Where a Party Has Total Control Differ


Please Share

3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute?

The 1987 Communication Industry Fairness Doctrine was eliminated.
Radio Stations were no longer required to present contrasting views.
Rush Limbaugh, who had popularized conservative talk radio, now had fewer restrictions.
Talk Radio and Identity Politics Flourished.
Conservative and Liberal Polarization Proliferate

4. The Telecommunications Act of 1996
allowed multi station company ownership and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications

iHeart Media owned over 800 US radio stations
  Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.

5. Citizens United v. FEC 
Allowed Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship diversified,
 which supported both intended and unintended
Fake News.

6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public

Mohamed Ali
practically invented this 1960's genre
 as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
 which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.

Larry Bird
and others soon followed.

7. Banning Earmarks in 2011
increased polarization as political cooperating to
 “bring home the bacon” ended.

See Avoiding Effects Of Groupthink



Anxiety Caused Populism

More than five years ago I began adding
political economy studies to
Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode
of attacks to post WW 1 United States.

Anxiety increased when blacks increased their economic and political power.
They received a more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.

White Christian middle class men and women were no longer the center of society.

Educators had long been acting as if the normal curve did not exist.
Education would be the great equalizer. It could solve most issues.

Then the Great Recession many hardships to rural areas and the Rust Belt very hard.

Result was, individual failure has continues.

Equal educational opportunity was not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and
nurture were not equally distributed.
Education Change was needed.


Special blame goes to the politicians, economists and professionals.
Economic success and political stability of 1980-2000 fostered technocrat control.
ut, too often they provided inadequate, bias, Information that was
not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the
real Fake News.

It is more dangerous than the fake news coming from lies,

once called
Yellow Journalism, and Propaganda.

The Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed by the Reagan Revolution followed by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on many middle class white Christians.
 Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back to the beginning, to Great Society animosity.
Trump's election signified a new Populism.
 It is much like our other
20th Century Populism episodes.

Democracy is supposed to be troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving populist issues to Millennials.
They must take control during what some consider a Fourth Turning

Should Progressives Consider Socialism

Socialism Defined

A Socialist Utopia is Imagined

Capitalism Not Imagined or Planned

Characteristics of Capitalism

Socialism Allocates Capital

is collective ownership and management
of equally distributed economic resources

Democratic Socialism of 20th Century Western Europe is public ownership of key industries such as RR,  transportation and communication. It also has increased concern for the disadvantaged and substantial private property.

Note: Neoliberal economics was used by England's Margaret Thatcher in 1979  to dismantled Democratic and she was followed to a lesser degree in much of Europe. In 1981 Ronald Reagan, President of the United States followed similar policies.


A Socialist Utopia was Imagined
by people during the 19th Century who believed
political equality required wealth equality.
Production was a common good.

The public, using a democratic process, controls the state.
States should determine investment goals and resulting strategy.
This is accomplished  by controlling property and investment capital. Production will be for the common good and not for state officials.

In 19th Century Capitalism, wealth was directed by rich private investors wanting the highest capital return. They neglected the low return of social goods.  Socialist believe this limited human possibilities.

Capitalism Not Imagined or Planned
It was a reality emerging with the Industrial Revolution.
It required investment and the reinvested of profit.
Its wealth creation soon dwarf that of European aristocracy.

Unlike socialism, capitalist did not contemplate the virtue of wealth or the effects of industrialism on the human condition.

Not an ideology, intellectuals did not defend it until the 20th century when Hayek and Friedman, among others, sought did so.

Capitalism explainer Adam Smith wrote “The Wealth of Nations.” It described how individual decisions, driven by self-interest, would culminate in an increased wealth of nations. In “The Theory of Moral Sentiments,” Smith argument that moral development resulted from appropriate management.

Capitalism maximized wealth, it did not limit inequality.
Investments were based on capital return expectations.
Capital would move toward maximum creation of wealth.
The process left some serving the system, excluding others.


Characteristics of Capitalism

Private property
-individuals own resources
Freedom of enterprise-own a business

Freedom of economic choice-work/not work, spend/not spend ..
Role of self-interest

Competitive Market System
Laissez-Faire Government let markets operate freely
Questionable Degree of Government Involvement a concern  


Socialism Allocates Capital





Source Basic Characteristics of Capitalism

Professor Mark Blyth on Bernie & Scandinavian Welfare





Abolishing Greed and State Minimization fantasies aside,
the two systems have more or less merged


Both Systems Have Unhappy Voters



A 2020 Watershed Election?


How Republicans Accidentally Caused
The Rise Of Socialism
8 min video from

Conservatism vs. Progressivism

Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Federal Government Responsibilities



A Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House of Representatives


Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House of Representatives Foreign influence on Domestic Politics
Click to enlarge cartoon.


See Decision 2020 Socialism



21st Century Terror


Homegrown European Terror Decreased

Islamic Terror Hitting Western Europe


Many Causes of U.S. Terror 

Motives Varied



1984 San Ysidro Lone

1986 Edmond post office
work related

1991 Luby's shooting
Hispanics, Gay, Women issues

1999 Columbine HS
no obvious motive

2007 Blacksburg
mental/physical issues


2007 Binghamton NY
self image/career issues

2009 Fort Hood
career issues

2012 Sandy  Hook
obsession with mass murders

2015 San Bernardino
inspired by Islamic terrorists

2016 Orlando Nightclub
many unrelated issues



Right Wing Terror Incident 1993-2017 by Movement

Sources wished

\homegrown-terrorists -were-almost-all-right-wing

9/11/01 Began an Era of Fear
Suddenly Our Invulnerable Nation Felt Dramatically Unsafe

Sources  economic wellbeing    David Brooks

Learn More About  Terror


Fake News

When Professionals Provide Inadequate,
Bias Information.
It is Worse Than

A Modern Name for
Yellow Journalism
and Propaganda,
provided Fodder for
Media, Politicians Think-tanks.

Unbiased News

Look for a date, author, data source,
logical facts, internet domain, writing style...

Fake News Warning # 1 Claiming Trumpisms are Lies

12. The Bottom Line
Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

A. WW 1 Began Middle Class Wealth Accumulation in England


Source author has a different interpretation of data.

U.S. Wealth Accumulation
Began Much Earlier

Log Scale link















B1. Great Recession Temporally Slowed Growth

one-picture economics

B2. US Growth Continues to Continue


C. Will Labor's Share Return to Normal? 


Editor's Note: Most politicians want
more G for infrastructure
Some want more G for education.
Some want more G for entitlements.
Some want more G for the safety net.
Some want more G for defense.
All politicians are buying votes.
Until economic growth picks up, all sectors will increase debt.


Still Populism Developed as

Politicians, the Media,
 and Professionals Can/Have Made
Much Money, Power and Gained Respect
      by Influencing/Creating Negativity!

Fake News   Please Share!

Editor's Note:
Knowing how the US poorly measures economic reality,
 I wants someone to determine exactly how well our poor live now,
have lived in the recent past, and will live in the Future.



Poor Education Test Scores
an Over-Hyped


Long Term Test Results
Slightly Up as Tests Get Harder

See complete data for
age 9, age 13, and age 17.



Trend in NAEP reading average scores

Trend in NAEP reading average scores for 9-, 13-, and 17-year-old students< - see complete data links below for full data in table format.



U.S. STEM Education
Compares Well Internationally 2007 vs. 2015
By 5/20/19

Measuring Innovation in Education 2019.
Note: All of the following results were calculated using TIMSS data.

How frequently do 4th grade students
use computers when learning math?

U.S. rose    18 - 79%     OCED  42 - 51%

How frequently do 8th grade students
do math homework at least twice a week?
US fell 86 - 75%   OECD 56 - No Change

Do teachers of 4th grade science
show experiments with half their lessons?
US rose 16 - 36 percent     OECD 13 - 35%

Do 4th grade students actually perform
science experiments or investigations?

 US rose 45 - 53%     OCED 33 - 46%

Are Incentives used to recruit and retain
STEM 8th math teachers?

US 7 - 6%     OECD 10 - 8%

Source: How US STEM practices compare internationally

  Editor's Thoughts:
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a good thing or not.
  2. US policies and practices don't look all that different.
  3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously distinctive.
  4. Almost all students lose interest in math and science.
    Computers and experiments may delay this decision, but they also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

    Homework may teach some to be more responsible, but again it  also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

    More money for teachers is usually good but one of the best teachers I have observed since 1950
    was, by almost all measures, a poor teacher.

    Maximize a students reading ability
    Teach a little practical math
    Get out of the way

Consider the Advice from Historical and Current Leaders



Ability and Major Determines Earnings
Top AA Earners Earn More Than Bottom Half of Bachelor's Graduates
More Data Career Guidance       Lifetime Earnings


Starting Pay

 Starting Pay

   Job Type

Bachelor's Premium With 10 Years Experience





10% 4%




Dental Hygienist

9% 5%




Registered Nurse

4% 6%




Construction Manager

17% 19%




Inside Sales Rep.

15% 24%



Postscript: We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War
2. The Civil War
3. WW 1

4. Great Depression Poverty
5. WW 2
6. War on Poverty
7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse



Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters Who Vote for Incumbents

Historically, the U.S. Has Succeeded Using Inflation
and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.

People loved dot-coms until they didn’t.
They loved credit default swaps until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.

When the music stops
for expanding liquidity,
things will be complicated."
Chuck Prince on debt-fueled
 private equity deals before
 the economy collapsed.





The years 1968, 1969, and 1970 had many noticeable events:
early baby boomers moved into their 20’s;
assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy;
 the women’s movement; the draft lottery, the bombing of Cambodia,
unrest on college campuses. Woodstock, Stonewall...

Did any of these increase the impatience of the country in a permanent way?
There are likely stories that could be woven, undoubtedly more than one,
but it is unclear whether anything
 could be tested.
The question is probably too big,
but the fact is interesting. Source

See World Getting Better video
Child Labor Photos    

Longer-Term Economic Questions

The Bottom Bottom Line



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Productivity Gains > Wage Gains

See Understanding US Productivity Slowdown


Profit Gains > Wages/Salaries Gains
But US Wages Increased Consistently!






Causes Are Numerous

Editor's Nope: Pay eligibility will vary depending on selected price index.
Most people select the index that helps their point of view.

BLS Data


Source: one picture economic

The Good

Source: Is The Narrative On Worker Pay Accurate?



 The Bad

Difference Could Get Even Larger

See Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis and  Unchecked Power


American Enterprise Institute


Retiree Data:


U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015




See Reshoring Initiative report

How Restricting Skilled Immigration Could Spur Offshoring



Capitalism Goes to Work!

See Post WW 2 US Economic Normality     Post WW 2 World Economic Normality

The Process

Source: "Why Aren't More Men Working?"New York Times, 6/17/18




Related Health Sites

Health Careers Nursing    Healthy Lifestyle   Healthy Skin    Healthy Dieting

Healthcare Learning Materials  

Health in America Analysis   Health Literacy

Healthy Eating Habits




Crime is Down


Few Believe It!


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Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
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Poverty Demographics

Poorer States Get Most Federal Help


Is Poverty a Condition or a Position?

Growing up in a rural 1950's Massachusetts Observations

lived with their children, few had health insurance or much income.

Poor Families lived in older house at the end of a dirt road.

Poor Children were skinny, often dirty, didn't finish HS,
 pooped around and then went into military, found a trade or pumped gas.

Almost no one had air conditioning.

Almost all benefited economically after WW 2 but
those in the bottom quintile were economically less well-off.


Retired in Rural 2003 Central Florida Observations

live on their own with Medicare and improved SS.
Poor families lived in older lowland house or trailers.
Poor Children, obesity a problem, most finish HS, try college,
go into one of many services, industry and live at home.

Poverty Rate Stuck, which ignores the safety net, is stuck at 15%.
 Liberals misuse poverty data and Conservatives despise safety net.


Some Feel Rich Have Too Much of Our Wealth

Wealth of Lower Income Cohorts should Includes
Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and Help from Friends and Family.


Elderly and Children Receive Substantial Assistance

The Working Poor


Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net

Working Means Fewer Benefits

See Little Help from 2nd Worker  

States Determine When Income is Too High to Receive a Benefit
Family Size 100% 133% 138% 250%
1 $12,140 $16,146 $16,753 $30,350 $48,560
2 $16,460 $21,892 $22,715 $41,150 $65,840
3 $20,780 $27,637 $28,676 $51,950 $83,120
4 $25,100 $33,383 $34,638 $62,750 $100,400
5 $29,420 $39,129 $40,600 $73,550 $117,680
6 $33,470 $44,515 $46,189 $84,350 $133,880
7 $38,070 $50,633 $52,537 $95,150 $152,280
8 $42,380 $56,365 $58,484 $105,950 $169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320 for each additional person. Note: Eligibility for premium tax credits in coverage year 2019 is based on poverty guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty line.

Few Real Poor Work







Fake News
Bottom Line

2020 Election

Have FED's Improve Education?

"It does not matter how slowly you go
as long as you don't stop."
Source1: Historical Leaders Education Observations
P. Drucker Emphasize what learners do well
Advise from Recent Leaders


More Finish HS-Confucius Would be Happy

Median Wealth Down-Drucker Not So Much

1. FED's Get to Set the Rules Without Providing the Money!


2. Federal Laws Have Unintended Consequences 

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting the unionization of public employees

In 1969, the Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending
students who bring political protest inside the schools
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:

"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools, kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."

"We now have "The Language Police, education historian Diane Ravitch's meticulous but horrifying narrative
of how the major textbook publishers, the testing companies and state education departments have
reduced what public-school kids learn to politically correct, politically laughable..."

Editor: In the years since, courts and legislatures gave the neighborhood school yet another big legal obligation:
They Must Mainstream and educate severely disabled kids.

1969 the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending students who bring political protest
inside the schools.
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools,
kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
 it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."

In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court
ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court  ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."


3. FED Rules and Money
Did Not Increase Testing Results
Manhattan Institute


4. One Answer Individualized Curriculums where Local Community Prioritize Goals

Learn More About Testing

Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.

There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to provide worker training. To some extent this is already happening -- in 2017, according to one report, U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior). Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the publicly funded education system to do it for them.

Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely regarded as having been successful in Germany, and with evidence suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education, these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be useful for white-collar jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor has been helping set up apprenticeships.


5. Testing Headlines Misinform

2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International Students Assessment

On the World Stage
U.S. Students Fall Behind

Massachusetts PISA Scores
are about the same as Singapore.

 Data on test taker percentages
not provided.
Prejudice for and against
makes all data Suspect.



A Different Look

Testing Headlines Chase Money-Not Truth

The Nation's Report Card Unchanged



A line graph shows that the national average mathematics score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 2013, but was not significantly different compared to 2005, the first year of the current trend line based on a new framework.


A line graph shows that the national average reading score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 1992, the initial reading assessment year, but was not significantly different compared to 2013.

Math Tests Unchanged Since 1971

Image of a line graph with three horizontal lines showing average scores for age 9, age 13, and age 17 students. The X axis is labeled year and shows various years from 1971 through 2012. The Y axis is labeled scale score and shows a range of scores from 0 to 500. Each horizontal line consists of two assessment variations: original assessment format and revised assessment format. 
      There are two data points in the transition year between original and revised formats. 
      For Reading age 9: The original format was used, In 1971 = 208, significantly different from 2012; 
      In 1975 = 210, significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 215, significantly different from 2012;
       In 1984 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 212, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1990 = 209, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 211, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1994 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1996 = 212, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 
       212, significantly different from 2012; In 2004 = 219; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 216, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 220; and In 2012 = 221. For Reading age 13: 
       The original format was used, In 1971 = 255, significantly different from 2012; In 1975 = 256, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1984 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 257, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 260; In 1994 = 258, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1996 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 259, significantly different from 2012;
        In 2004 = 259, significantly different from 2012; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 257, 
        significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 260, significantly different from 2012; and In 2012 = 263. 
        For Reading age 17: The original format was used, In 1971 = 285; In 1975 = 286; In 1980 = 285;
         In 1984 = 289; In 1988 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1994 = 288; In 1996 = 288; In 1999 = 288; In 2004 = 285; 
         The revised format was used, In 2004 = 283, significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 286; and In 2012 = 287.

US Mathematics & Reading at Grade 12


Reasons Test Score Differ

The Difference: Report Card Tests are Constant
PISA Changes Periodically

See Long and Short-Term Testing.

Testing is Big Business

Standardized Test Sales, 1955–1997


Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a three-part test
 has made a lot of money for a lot of people.

Business Week
2005 reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last modified."

New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies.

The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.

Product Line Expanded
More than 25 percent of public high school seniors graduating last May
 took at least one AP test."


Four companies that dominate the business
 of making/scoring standardized tests.
As of 2011, Gaston Caperton,  the president of the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT,
 was paid $1.3 million.
 Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
The National Board on Educational Testing and Public Policy at Boston College
reported that the value of the standardized testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million."

Standardized test exists to create a better life for young people.
 But these tests  hurt young people economically and emotionally.

Epilogue: Education should center on Howard Gardner's
equally valued normally distributed
Multiple Intelligences,
concentrating on a student's
Special Intelligence
not harming  self actualization.

See Decision 2020 Education Considerations

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More Data on Taxes

Prelude : Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?

Prelude: Economic Tax Concerns

1. Ayn Rand's Predicted a Tipping Point
Which Begins a Slow Long-Term Growth Decline.

Creative Destruction Fuels Our Economic Prosperity    Source
Average of S&P 500 Index ten-year was 33 years, by 1990 it was 20 years.

Since 1955, only 52 companies still have ten-year top 500 membership.

Do you think higher taxes would have kept Bill Gates at Harvard?
Kept Steve jobs at Reed College and out of the computer business?

2. Would a Wealth Tax Lower Wealth Created by Entrepreneurs?

See Wealth Tax Economics


Has Private Business Reacted to Income Inequality?

Editor's Note: Should Ayn Rand and Milton Freedman are turning over in their graves?

3. Do We Over Accommodate Business

Profits Moved to the Very Top


4. We Lead the West in Productivity

Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe adversaries, seldom enemies.

5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive Affected?     When and How Will They Be Affected?


Politics is in Control

A. IRS Demanding Billions Less From the Wealthy

In 2009, the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel ultra-wealthy ax dodges.

A battle had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began slashing the agency’s budget.

High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned that the squad was conducting “the audits from hell.”

In 2012 the wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes and penalties.
t after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.

Having to battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.

summarized from

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

Congress Has Given Many a Tax Break

Corporations Pay Less So Stockholders  Get More


Dodging Taxes is Easier

See Millionaires and Corporate Giants Escaped IRS Audits in FY 2018

Tax Dodge Lets Investors Save Big

"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra withdrawals
 by rapidly pumping assets in and out.


The Very Rich

Top 400 families have more wealth than bottom 60 percent of households, while the top 0.1 percent own same as bottom 80 percent.  Source


Wealth Tax Economics




C. Who Cheats and How

The Who

Wealthy Lead the Parade of Cheats

It is a Long Parade

Source: How big is the problem of tax evasion?

The How


Specifics Techniques

Unbiased Third Party Information Provided Income Type

Tax Liabilities Misreported %

Little or none Farm income 71%
  Nonfarm proprietor income 64
  Rents and royalties 62
  Other income 49
  Form 4797 income 42
Some Capital gains 27
  Partnership, S-corp, etc. 16
Substantial Taxable Social Security benefits 19
  State income tax refunds 13
  Dividend income 7
  Unemployment compensation 6
  Pensions and annuities 4
  Interest income 3
  Wages, salaries, tips 1




D. Tax Where the Money Is!

Payroll is Where the Money Is

An 8% payroll tax increase affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.

  The Math Problem That Could Sink the Bernie/AOC Agenda
See The First-Ever Social Security Check?

A women named Fuller paid a total of $24.75 of payroll taxes for three years.
In the 35 years after her retirement, she received $22,888.92 in benefits.

Do low income retirees with dependents
appreciates what a good investment return
 they may receive from social security?


People Want More Taken from the Rich

See Taxation Philosophies

Super Rich Do Have Lots More Money


Do the rich pay lower taxes than the poor?


The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – David Leonhardt, New York Ti
What the NYT Didn’t Tell You – Robert Verbruggen, National Review

Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent
" Our preliminary estimate is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
 and roughly $800 billion in its first decade.
source EPI

First Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed 70 percent marginal income tax rate
 on $10 million and over to finance her Green New Deal
 affects 16,000 people with  income of $245 billion.
 It would
raise $164-382 billion over ten years.

Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000 households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the millionaires."

Another Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50 million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an estate tax.

A Trump proposal requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used to qualify for means-tested federal programs.

President Barack Obama’s (failed) 2013 proposal to apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people were provided. Source:
Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of the SS fund tried to do this.

See Taxes, Socialism, And Class War
Are Billionaires Fat Cats or Deserving Entrepreneurs? but 
Billionaires take more than they make.
Center for Popular Economics
source one-picture economics


E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

Companies Use Bonus in Place of More Permanente Raises

Just one more reason to be careful when using
economic data for political economy analysis.

Middle Households Helped Least


F. Would Rich Pay?

Editor's Note: Historically Very rich pay the very educated to avoid taxes.

Would Boxers Box, Musicians Play, Actors Act?



Would Hedge Managers Hedge Like They Did Last Decade?

Would a Wealth Tax Slow Economic Growth?

Most of this Wealth Created With Government t Sponsored Technology.


We Spent Billions to Keep Them Hedging Beginning in 2007

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Who We Owe, Why We Borrow
Meet Our Creditors
1. US Citizens and US Government Owns Most of tithe Debt

2. Is Foreigners US Debt Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.


When We Borrowed

1. Borrowing Began With the Revolution

Image result for Federal Debt graphs

2. Mostly it was War

3. Human Needs Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.

4. Recessions Caused Deficits as Revenue Drops
Nominal Growth Historically Cured Deficit

Obama continued the Bush policy of fighting the Great Recession with debt
and by 12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's austerity policies.


Who Paid the Federal Debt

 1. Total Stays the Same

end table?
End of
Fiscal Year
US Gross Debt
in Nominal USD billions
US Gross Debt as % of GDP Question Answer
1940 43.0 52.4 No One
1950 257.4 94.1
1960 290.2 56.1
1970 389.2 37.6
1980 930.2 33.3 No One
1990 3,233 55.9
2000 5,674 58 TBD
2005 7,933 64.6
2007 9,008 65.5
2008 10,699.8 74.6 (EST)
2009           11,046.2   TBD
United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
new table?


2. Who Finances Deficit Rollovers?

3. Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed



Entitlements Pose a Problem

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems


Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same, high income earners pay most Required additional health care cost difficult for many

Longer life especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases cost. Free cases poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles currently not acceptable to electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See  Table 1 and  Table 3 Deficit concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic success..
Solution just time or later retirement but politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations Table 2 Tax payers don't appreciate
 their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.

When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least possible pain.


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Measured Poverty Has Changes Little

See Why Poverty is Controversial?  


BUT After the Safety Net
Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years 




This chart "...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5 to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0 percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even more." Examples of noncash benefits include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid, and Medicare. See Source Editors Comments are in red.



Work is Not Encouraged as Real Minimum Wage Falls
Unintended Consequence of Safety Net Increases?



Government Support Increased Prices

Return to Index Please Share!



Skilled Medical/Profession Workers Were the Big Winner



Learn About

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Conservatism vs. Progressivism
as see through the eyes of George Will

"We hold these truths to be self-evident,
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..."

American Conservatism:
Preserve the Founders Thinking
as custodians of the classical liberal tradition.

Rights are natural. They preexist acts of human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's main purpose is to "secure these rights."

Human nature is permanent and statesmanship is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord with the nature of humans.

Progressivism: Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the understanding and directing of shaping forces.

Today's Conflict: 
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives want
directing of society's shaping forces.

Source: Conservative Sensibility

Classical Liberalism : the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.

New Deal Progressivism of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights.

Determining the final arbiter is always contested.
Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court

Managerial Progressives of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government operations from above and end the business cycles. 


Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Conservatives Want a Republic Constitution

First Comes Rights, Then Comes Government

"We the People" Viewed as Individuals
where majority can lose if Judicial Review
determines an action impedes a fundamental right.


Progressives Want a Democratic Constitution

First Comes Governments then Comes Rights

We the People Viewed as  One Group
where majority rules and Judicial Review
can not impede majority desires.

The Constitution was Designed to put checks and Balances on Majority Rule and as time as passed, the fear of anarchy from majority rule as lessened.

Federal Government Responsibilities
A Brief US Political History Defining Federal Problem Problem Disposition
From the Founding to Civil War Legitimacy in Relations to States Superior
Civil War to New Deal Power Limits to Federal Operations None
New Deal to Recently Meet Needs of all Constituencies Deficits Do Not Matter
Today Making Appropriate Collective Long term Choices Voters Not Interested in
Delayed Gratification
In response to Hamilton's desire for national direction of economic development, Madison foresaw an Administrative state which would

damage Federalism by claiming responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and

the resulting increase in new responsibilities would  then take its limit the affect of separation of powers moving power from legislative branch to the executive department. 

Thoughts from James .Q. Wilson, American academic, political scientist, and an authority on public administration
as reported by George Will in The Conservative Sensibility


The Judicial Supervision Difficulties of Democracy
Counter Majoritarian Difficulty

In U.S. Federalism, Governing is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court

Declaration of Independence

Goal: Secure Unalienable Rights

Affirmed Natural Right of the Individuals

Implies Democracy

Limits to Majority Rule

United States Constitution

Purpose: Define Constructed Rights of the Community

to Make Laws the Majority Deems Necessary and Proper.

Created Tension

Majority Rule is Limited and Moderated
 by the Constitution

Joining a community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court must protect the natural rights of  liberty.

The Legislature writes the laws, the Executive administers laws
 and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.


Election 2020 Question Possibilities

Basic Income Information



More Civility Data

A. Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining
The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between 1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from Facebook but not for twitter.

B. Politically  “teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party lines."

"This happened in the 1850s: We know what happened..."
 "Things...could get plenty bad..."  with a "...serious recession or the stock market..." crash. "

and ... as a nation we are no longer capable of making preparations for such events."

  "Political Polarization: The Rise and Decline of America's Postwar Political Order"

Editors Note: With democracy, very difficult to sacrifice before the pain. Think WW1  WW2  Gilded Age Greed




C. U.S. Supreme Court Job Approval Rating Ties Record Low

Trend: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?

It's Political

Trend: Supreme Court Job Approval, by Political Party

D. Individual Behavior Norms Are Expanding


Legality of Behavior Norms Also Up


Attitude Toward Abortion Unchanged

Public views of abortion: 1995-2018


Why the Difference?
It's About Relegion!


It's About Politics

There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion
with Democrats
much more likely than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.

This gap is even larger between liberal Democrats
 and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP (27%)

It's enhanced by

Roe v. Wade
Poisoned Our Politics

Michael Barone New York Post

Today’s “partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v. Wade,
said Michael Barone. The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so heated if
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might be at stake.

In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s population
had already liberalized their abortion laws
and America would have had different laws in different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all circumstances

and the country’s defining wedge issue.

While public opinion on cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on abortion has
scarcely budged.”

It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally moral issue
about “the way people live their lives”: Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their “personal autonomy”
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly religious,
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human lives.”

Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed it
because neither side believes it can afford any compromise
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.


2020 Election Info: U.S. and China Are Geopolitical Political Rivals?

end table?

U.S. Has a Strong Geopolitical Position
Power and Global Disorder 22 min video 11/8/18
Peter Zeihan

1. Largest strip of high-quality arable land in the world

2. Most Navigable Waterways in the world

3. Control best parts of a continent with moats on either side

4. If US trading system breaks down, US suffers the least!  

5. Trade subsidizes the Global system so NAFTA must work.

6. US is delusional  when thinking China is the next super power.
    She has only managed to hold together for 300 years.

Water, Energy, Soil and Food--and a Shared National Purpose Matter

Requirements for Success

U.S very good Geography that is productive and well protected.

Economically Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable demographic. The others are "terminal countries."

Happening faster because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations with people.
Near the end he new how important factors were interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.

But Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is following a neoconservative policy.

US has forced an acceleration of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates.
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain rapid growth.
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China will fall apart.

Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China
is Japans concern.
Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis.
Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one except Russia, is a nuclear concern.
Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South Korean/Japanese worry.

Editor's Question: Is US as protector a requirement for US business and finance to control the world?
Factors Indicating a New International Order
See Videos Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018
The Accidental Superpower and
The Absent Superpower

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan
U.S.-China Relations in 2019 video
  Kevin Rudd


U.S. Government Not Designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise.
b. Many want limited government.
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems.

Recent Exception After WW 2
a. The 1946 Long Telegram described a very aggressive Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year multi-administration policy of containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully

Containment Success
a. Fragility of Soviet economy and society caused implosion from within.
b. China is very different.

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

US Strategic Plan

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and one side backs down.

b. Competition is more adversarial but no US guidelines given.

c. Rules to be determined

Washington's Latest Attitude Toward China Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult.

b. McCarthyism in U.S. and Australia is not good Foreign Policy.

Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign challenges to the long-term survival of the Communist Party.

b.  Assistant Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a strong-man and long-time party member, move toward markets rankling some politburo bureau members.

Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes

b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends

c) Set a new direction

Recent Changes

a)  Communist Party and Ideology was enhanced
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
b) Ideological Confidence has increased.

c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

d) China to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform


2020 Election Info: Trump's Grade Report

Part One

Update 8/21/19

Keeping Promises is why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.

Love him or hate him, Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality—
or at least making the case that he tried:

  • Conservative Supreme Court justice?  double-check.
  • Tax cuts? Check, weighted toward corporations rather than the middle class.
  • Gut regulations Check.
  • Crack down check, despite his failure to build a wall. 
  • Tariffs on China? Check.
  • Declaring China a currency manipulator? Check.
  • Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pacific Rim trade deal? Check.
  • Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. Pending congressional approval.
Failed Promises
  • He promised in a 2016 interview, wipe out the national debt in eight years.
  • He promised great wall," and inflates the mileage mixing replacements with new construction.
  • He promised Mexico would pay, failed.
  • He promised repeal Affordable Care Act and give amazing health care to everyone. Failed
  • He promised to reverse trade deficits.  U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
  • Trump, pushed to end Afghanistan and with draw all U.S. troops failed
  • fallen short:
  • infrastructure and ending the Opioid crisis.
  •  drain the swam 

2. Trump's New Geopolitical Era?

1. Three Main Forces Blowing Up Global Politics     2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs    4. Cultural Wars    Source Geopolitics

1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

 by Summary from editor  Walter Antoniotti
Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to
Europe/Western Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions

contributed to these disruptions and caused  many to lash out in a tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended

Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

Disruptions Could Last Years
Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.

Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.


A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes  by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions.

3. Foreign Affairs

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Older Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source

U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision
B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political 
topic/lingua franca is important
C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step

E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts

4. Cultural Wars

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession  
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased
economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3)  threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
r Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.

“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics.
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy

A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source:
The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance

Understanding Right and Left Populism
Right populism defines "the people"
as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism 
2) refugees  
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...

Left populism defines “the people”
as social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other
Right populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary,
unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state.

Left populism defines the enemy
in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are
caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and workforce casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.

More Terror Information

German recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase. Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.

US Targets Varied

Racist Trend
"White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance, and skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."

Anti-Federalist Trend
The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan. Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation were  anti-taxation, gun rights, and a “survivalist” lifestyle. The “farm crises” of the 1980s,  and rapid cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive movement, as well as its rapid growth.

Fundamentalist Trend
Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations, merges religious fundamentalism with traditional white supremacy and racist tendencies. It promotes ideas of nativism, exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according to primordial attributes.

The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud Sprinzak published a paper on the irredentist Israeli religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the Faithful) entitled “The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”


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Populism   Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor


Climate Change

Geoengineer the Planet? More Scientists Now Say It Must Be an Option (Yale Environment 360)

Unfortunately, China counters the trend away from coal. Its Belt & Road Initiative is dotting unspoiled stretches of Central Asia with the most polluting kind of coal-fired power stations.





WinP Immigration


The U.S. repatriated about 400,000 Mexicans from 1929 to 1934. "Politicians at that time argued that it would give jobs to American workers and attenuate the unemployment problems caused by the Great Depression. ... Overall, not only did politicians’ claims not materialize, but it seems like the repatriation program may have hurt some native workers. Specifically, the repatriation of Mexicans, who were mostly laborers and farm workers, reduced demand for other jobs in the local economy mainly held by natives," Jongkwan Lee, Giovanni Peri and Vasil Yasenov write in an Institute of Labor Economics discussion paper.

475,000: In the fiscal year to September, US Border Patrol arrested some 475,000 people trying to enter the US without papers as families, up 342 percent from the same period in 2018. Of those apprehended, 76,020 were minors, that's more than during any other period on record.







0: For the first time since it began keeping monthly records, the United States in October resettled precisely zero refugees from abroad. This comes as the Trump administration is cutting the overall number of refugees permitted in the United States and tightening requirements for entry.









"Foreign born" and "immigrant" are used interchangeably and refer to persons with no U.S. citizenship at birth. This population includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, refugees and asylums, persons on certain temporary visas, and the unauthorized.

Geographical regions: MPI follows the definition of Latin America as put forth by the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, which spans Central America (including Mexico), the Caribbean, and South America. For more information about geographical regions, see the U.S. Census Bureau and United Nations Statistics Division.