Updated and Improved Continually 1/21/20

Were US Workers
Betrayed by Capitalis
m
?

Germany and Japan Slowly
Took Their Fair Share of Economic Growth.

Then China and Great Recession
 Took More.

Source: Post WW 2 US Economic Normality

 

 

Long Time Wage Growth Upward

"Stability and achievements being cumulative
mean young people of today will enjoy both past progress
 and their own contributions.+

Source: US Economic Wellbeing

 

 

 

The Ups and Down of Capitalism

Capitalism Adjusts Well Again

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

See Post WW 2 World Economic Normality


   bridgewater.com/

 

US Workers Get a Smaller Piece of a Bigger Pie

One Reason is Weak Unions

 

 1950's, 60's and 70's Turmoil Returned America to her Conservative Roots.      

Both Political Parties Contributed

"Over the last few decades labor’s bargaining power fell, corporate taxes fell, tariffs fell, globalization increased, technology allowed for greater scale and lower marginal costs, anti-trust enforcement fell, and interest rates fell. These factors have produced the most pro-corporate environment in history." bridgewater.com

A Capitalist will always try to get a bigger piece of the pie.
The secrete is to let them have just enough so they keep
 up their good work.

Some will always want more for their special interest like military, education, the safety net ...Someday, we will ask these people to be more cost effective. Being ahead of everyone else is not enough.

Capitalism Outsourcing
 Maintain and then Increase Profit.

 #1 US Manufacturing moved South out of Northeast and Midwest.

#2 Manufacturing and Middle Skilled Work moved out of US.

#3 US Pressure caused Foreign Manufacturing to
 
move to US low cost locations helping wage growth.

# 4 China created jobs
assembling parts from other Asian countries.

#5 Jobs moving out of China to lower cost country.

#6 China increased wages.

#7 China began moving up the product value chain.

Middle-Skill Jobs Suffered

see Who Gets the Money?

 

 

Large firms move high-skill jobs out of states with high personal taxes, according to an analysis of big firms’ job postings, by Janet Gao of Indiana University 

At large firms, 20% to 50% of the total workforce often is outsourced, according to staffing executives. Bank of America Corp., Verizon Communications Inc., Procter & Gamble Co. and FedEx Corp. have thousands of contractors each. Source

At large employers, it is now common for building maintenance, security, kitchen, laundry and custodial staff not to work directly for the company they report to each day.

Now the Trump administration has adopted a four-factor test to assess whether an indirect employer is a joint employer that would bear legal responsibility for violations of minimum-wage and overtime regulations. This is a narrower standard for determining joint-employer status than the practice that existed under the administration of President Barack Obama, which expanded the responsibilities of indirect employers in January 2016. The International Franchise Association (the largest organization representing franchises worldwide) argues that the broader criteria previously in place
 cost U.S. franchisees between 
$17 and $33 billion per year.

bloomberg.com/opinion/

 

See Jobs Leave With or Without Outsourcing

 

 

 

Lowest-paid workers wages rising fastest in more than a decade.
But
this may not mean a higher standard of living. Median wage in the first quartile is still low—$11.50 in 2019, or 55% of the overall median wage. Around 46% of these households have children.

and those receiving in means-tested public assistance programs (about 70 percent of income before taxes and transfers according to a CBO report could lose benefits. Source: Atlanta Fed's John Robertson and Alex Ruder blog post. Editor: Isn't that what is supposed to happen?

Relative Median Wage: Lowest Wage Quartile

A Real Difficult Question The Future of Work    
Lawrence Summers 2015
"...the idea that you can just have better training
 and then there are all these jobs,
all these places where there are shortages and
we just need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."

 

" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs.
 If you help some people, you could help them get the jobs,
 but then someone else won't get the jobs. "

Source The Future of Work   

 

You Should Know About Wages

Why Have Wages Been Stagnant for Many Workers?
Fact 1: The share of economic output workers receive has generally fallen over the past few decades.
Fact 2: Wages have risen for those in the top of the distribution but stagnated for those in the bottom and middle.
Fact 3: The education wage premium rose sharply until about 2000, contributing to rising wage inequality
Fact 4: Globalization and technological change have likely put downward pressure on less-educated workers' wages
Fact 5: Wages have grown for women and fallen for men.
Fact 6: Declines in the real minimum wage and union membership have affected
Fact 7: Workers have become less likely to move to a different state or to a different job, reducing wage growth.
Fact 8: Business formation and closings have slowed wage growth.

How Strong Has Wage Growth Been since the Great Recession?
Fact 9: Inflation-adjusted wage growth was higher from 2007 to 2017 than it was during previous business cycles
Fact 10: Labor market slack has declined during the recovery from the Great Recession, though some likely remains.
Fact 11: Recent labor productivity growth has been slow, restraining wage growth.
Fact 12: In recent years, measured wage growth has been depressed by changes in the workforce.
Fact 13: Great Recession wage growth occurred for top earners, but has since become more broadly shared.

Manufacturing Wages Moved Back to the Pack

 

Some Say Organized Labor Failed and We Have the Money

Source


Cumulative Real Wage Growth Calculations Differ
are
sensitive to price index used to adjust wages for inflation.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) deflator implies lower real wage growth,
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator implies higher real wage growth
Technical issues also help explains wage measure differences.
Recently the CPI wage has increased more than the GDP productivity increased.
The deflator difference accounts for a third of the wage differences versus productivity changes.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve “Wage Tracker” for continuously employed workers shows
faster
average hourly wage growth for all employees. It still shows slower nominal growth than in the pre-2007 period.

Economists are rethinking the numbers on inequality.

 

Income growth and its distribution from Eisenhower to Obama: The growing importance of in-kind transfers.

John Mueller's 1995 statement concerning Retrospection Bias.
“... no matter how much better the present gets,
 the past gets better faster..."

Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in them:
they are always back there somewhere.”

Editor: It Could Be Time for a Change.

Decision 2020 Options to Improve Work
 

Education

1. For Some, College Became a Poor Economic Investment 
2.
Public Primary Education Worked For Many
3
. Education Investing Decisions  
4. Federal Education Involvement Analysis

1. College
Lots More Graduates, Little More Income

Question: Why are college graduates hired?
Answer: "At least we know they are interested in a career."
 White-collar education for blue-collar work-WSJ, Austin Hufford

Cause: Few High Paying Jobs/Majors

 

Lester Thurow stated "Education is a very lumpy investment where often there is little or no payoff from having a little bit more."  ..."There are big returns to the first years of education (the education where one gains literacy) and big payoffs to the last years of education (a college or graduate degree where one distinguishes oneself from the pack) but only small payoffs to those years of education that move the individual from somewhat below average to somewhat above average." 283 Sources

The Future of Capitalism:
How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World

Historical Leaders Education Observations
from Confucius to L. Summers

Advise from 20th Century World Leaders
From Churchill  to C. Murray

 

2. Education Worked For Many

 

But Some Need a Radically New Approach

Many who stopped Looking for Work
 likely didn't finish HS.

 

"The most important thing about education is appetite."
Winston Churchill

"Do not train a child to learn by force of harshness; but direct them to it by what amused their minds so that you may be better able to discover with accuracy the peculiar bent of the genius of each."
 
Plato

 

"It does not matter how slowly you go
 as long as you don't stop."
 
Confucius

"The better-performing students will be treated
 much as chess prodigies are today
" ... The lesser-performing students will specialize in receiving motivation."  Tyler Owen
Average is Over  (2013) 198 See How Children Succeed by Paul Tough 2012

 

Education Success Leads to Working

 

 

Is College Still Worth It? It’s Complicated

Lead Economist William Emmons, Policy Analyst Ana Hernandez Kent and Lead Analyst Lowell Ricketts - all with the St. Louis Fed’s Center for Household Financial Stability - recapped research presented at an event examining whether college still provided a significant payoff in terms of household income and wealth.
Overall, the evidence said that college was indeed worth it.

“However, for recent generations and for non-white students, the payoffs are somewhat lower than average," they noted. “This is especially true for wealth accumulation. Considering all of the evidence, we conclude that the conventional wisdom about college is not as true as it used to be."

 

Source:
Manhattan Institute


Is Hyping Education Fake News?  

2016 HS Graduates With Good Job

25-44 ≥ $35,000

45 -65 ≥ $45,000

1) HS or Less 12.9 million

2) Some College: 15.7 million had good jobs

3) Bachelor's Degree or More 36.3 million Source

3. Education Investment Decisions


 

 

 

7) Lester Thurow stated "Education is a very lumpy investment where often there is little or no payoff from having a little bit more."  ..."There are big returns to the first years of education (the education where one gains literacy) and big payoffs to the last years of education (a college or graduate degree where one distinguishes oneself from the pack) but only small payoffs to those years of education that move the individual from somewhat below average to somewhat above average." 283 The Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World Source

Leaders Educational Advise: Opinions Matter

 

The Merit Aid-Illusion

 

Are College Marketing Efforts Useful?


Source


Uncle Sam is Calling in His Chips.
 

 

Collections of delinquent student loans

See Interesting Thoughts Concerning Education

 

Editor's Comments:

Top University Admissions not be "the" top education issue.

1. Selective Colleges Help the Poor and the Wealthy Students

Earnings boost from going to a top college, by parents' income

 

 

 

See Top Universities Make a Difference?

For Most College Students, It’s What You Study—Not Where You Study

Top charts of 2019 clarify economic priorities for 2020

 

How we education average students
is a much more important issue.

Business is Helping
Manufacturers to spend $26.2 billion on 'upskilling'
in 2020 to attract and keep workers

They will take most of the best candidates, many will have degrees.
But given the vast number, something else is needed,

See  Improving American Education

See Decision 2020 Education

Please share!
 

Health and Safety

Teenagers are Healthier

 

Fewer Divorces Helps

 

 

See Improving Health

 

But We Still Have Work to Do!

We Spend a Lot

Spending is High

See

A decade in review:
The surprisingly good news
about American family life — for kids

 


Safety

Children are Safer

Autos are Much Safer

 

 

But School Shootings Up
 Fatalities Up to 55 in 2018

 

3,037 Fewer Teenage Fatalities
from Injuries Occurred in 2018.

See Data Since 1990s Peak

Everyone is Safer, But

 

Editorial

Does Media Create Paranoid About Terrorist Attacks?

CDC Averages Annual Cause of US Deaths

0.0012% chance of dying in a mass shooting

27 mass shootings
15,000 murders
  38,000 automobile accidents
 3500 text while driving teens

Source

Is there a more efficient way to help children?

Sadly, about 700 women die each year in the United States
from pregnancy or delivery complications.

 
 

Poverty

 

 

Conservatives Take Notice

Most People Work

Much Goes to Children and Elderly

 

Liberals Take Notice

We Spend Lots

Source
 

Especially to Help Children

Survey #2
Voter Knowledge

from Just Facts

 


 

 

 

 
Survey #3 Ambition and Talent  Drive Inequality
Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
 
  Hours Worked Change

Change in Average Earnings

Year 1988 2016      
           
advanced degrees 1,930 2,109 9% $67,349 to $94,967. 41%
bachelor’s degrees 1,872 2,009 7% $56,262 to $65,865 17%
H.S. diploma     <1% minus 12 percent
other workers little change No Data Given
Editor's Note: Interesting, but since the price level used to
adjust for the change in the value of money over time is not given,
I am not going to bet my life on the Earnings Data.
See Fake News


Why the Voter Confusion?

Poverty Rate Looks Stuck?

 

Safety Net Solves the Confusion

Why are resources expended to help the poor
not included in determining the Official Poverty Rate!
Determining how the poor live is a good beginning
 unless you just want more or less spent!

How Do Our Poor Live?

Three Poverty Rate Measurements
Official
-based on CPI data
Supplemental
-includes safety net programs
Consumption
-based on Consumer Expenditure
Income inequality rose in both the top and bottom halves of the distribution, but increases in consumption inequality are only evident in the top half. The differences are also concentrated in single parent families and single individuals.

Poverty is Down Dramatically-Americans Should be Proud.
Amount of Decrease Depends on Individual Prejudice

 

Our Poor are Living Better
Read the full Report

Better than the
World's Average Person

 

Source

 

 

With Living Conditions Improved,
Maybe Living Environment Needs More Attention

 

Editor's Notes:

Measuring economic Wellbeing is difficult.

U.S. Poverty Rate is Fake News Why?

 

 

 
 
Highlights of the New 2018 Census Bureau

The Good

1. The Official Poverty Measure fell to 11.8%, the lowest it has been since
    11.7% in 2001,  which was the  end of the 1990s expansion, and before that,
    not since the late 1960s.

2. This data from  ignores noncash benefits such as SNAP, health benefits,
     and subsidized housing. Such benefits have grown 16 times faster than
     anti-poverty benefits counted as income.

3. Full-time, full-year workers poverty rate was 2.3% percent in 2018.
    For those aged 18 to 64 who did not work it, was 29.7%.

    For families headed by married couples it, was 4.7%.
    For those headed by a  single female it, was 24.9%.

    For “no spouse present,” income increased 5.8%.

    Female full-time, full-year median real earnings rose 40% since the 1970s..
    Male full-time, full-year real median earnings were flat.

See Annual Report on U.S. Consumption Poverty: 2018

 

The Federal Government Assistance to
Agriculture Pays Huge Dividends

 

 

 

 

The Bad

Adults over age 25 without a high school diploma poverty rate increased
 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%.

The South high poverty rate of 13.6% was the only region not to decline.

Primary Sources  Official Poverty Measure  Supplemental Poverty Measure

 
 

The Congressional Budget Committee
should audit economic statistics and report those that misrepresent wellbeing.

Question:
  Should Poverty Rate be Renamed the Poverty Eligibility Rate?
Learn Abo
ut Poverty Demographics    The Working Poor
See Decision 2020
Poverty Considerations

Taxes


 

 
 

Tax Rates Went Down

Government Debt Increased

 

 

 

Federal Tax Collection Changed Little

 

Editor's Note: CBO Budget Projections, like most projections, are Notoriously Poor.

 

IRS budget Cuts Resulted in $34.3 Billion in Lost Taxes Large Firms.

Why isn't the IRS on commission?

Here is Another Job for the CBO

 

More Tax Analysis
Prelude : Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes
C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?

 

Federal Debt

Two Kinds
1. Bonds/Notes pay interest to owners.
 
2. Dollars pay no interest.
Transactions only occur in dollars which the FED prints as needed.


You Will Get Your FED Retirement Check.

It's value adjusts for inflation.
 

States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen.
You Might Not Get Your State Retirement.
 

But, Fed Debt Has Risk: Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate


Inflation usually follows printing too many dollars.

The Economics of Debt
Debt increases demand.
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
Recently, World Production Oversupply Keeps Inflation Low.

 
A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises.

"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is this: when it comes to financial crises, we're not in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces. Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable. Runaway private debt and the resulting overcapacity
does a better job than any other variable in explaining and predicting financial crises.
It is our job to heed those danger signs."

Source: Symposia Historical Evolution Money and Debt
 
(Vague 2019, p. ix)
 Brief History of Doom (INET) has concise data summary Video 14 min.

Editor's Note: Public Debt Concerns are Not Financial.
Who receives the money and what is bought concerns many.

 

   


Supporters of High Debt Say
Interest Payments Are Low


Others See Many Trouble

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Debt: Is It the Calm Before the Storm?
podcast:
knowledge@Wharton

 

Inflation/Growth Historically
 Lowered Relative Debt

Many will say "who cares" because they believe in
Modern Monetary Policy

 

FED Printing Money Could Cause Inflation
Causing Higher Interest Rates and More Taxes.


US Government

Prologue From the utopian "Yankeedom" to the conservative "Greater Appalachia" and liberal "Left Coast,"
looking at these cultures sheds an interesting light on
America's political and cultural divides.  American Nations

 

Selected Countries by value

Inefficient or Efficient  World Leader

China - $952.6 billion - 26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture

United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% in farming
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% in farming
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% in farming
France - $55.6 billion - 2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion --2.57% employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion -4.31% employed in agriculture

Editors Question: Is Government most socialist program or is in Oil?

 

 
 

Was the $6.4 Trillion Spent on Terror as Good a Decision?

Source
Question: Rather than just leaving Syria,
should Trump have proposed Europe take it over by 6/30/20.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But

 

 

See Should the Federal Debt be Paid  from class notes I first wrote in 1966.
 

Government Spending Grew
17.5% to 21.5% of GDP

People Got More, Defense Got Less

 

Everyone Got More
Some Got More Than Others
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!

An example of the unintended consequences of government support is increased Social Security benefits paralleled the decrease in the personal savings rate. Government Deficits Fund Private Savings.

 

Government Spends About 21% of GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Evolution of Socialism
 

1) Early 20th Century
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
A Failed Utopian, Totalitarian System

2) Post WW 2
Government controls key industries such as utilities, transportation
 and communications. Classic socialism dominated after World War II
 and still is believed by many older Americans.

3) Current Perception
US has Mixed Economy

Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health insurance, retirement provisions, and
access to less expensive higher education.
This doesn't replace capitalism, it makes it more humane,
 egalitarian, and more protective.

Scandinavian Nordic model,
popularized by Democrat Sander, includes a comprehensive welfare state and multi-level collective bargaining, with a high percentage of the workforce unionized, while being based on the economic foundations of free market capitalism.

Many associate socialism with totalitarian Communism
which was poor practices and completely failed in the Soviet Union.

Source Socialism: a short-primer See   
Democratic Socialism Basics video

Learn About

Who What, Where, When and Why We Borrow

See Decision 2020 Government  Considerations

Editorials
1) Is Median Wealth Understated?

 

2) Paul Krugman Agrees With Our
More Socialist Young People

"On fiscal and economic responsibility:

Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times.

 

3. Do We Spoil Our Elderly?

 

A Republic is a free, equal, self-ruling government of people.

Limits on Democracy and Majority Rule
1. All are Guaranteed Individual Rights
2. Constitutional protects minority from majority.
3. Supreme Court manages evolving constitution.

A Democracy requires majority rule because people disagree.
See Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic

Politics in America

 

 

 

Editorial

Democratic Federalist Republic Politics is difficult.
As a centrist,
I do not want an extremist US President.

The lack of Institutional forbearance
 
by a political party
is the
under utilization of it's power.
Accepting another party's legitimacy
 means not always
follow the letter of the law.
 Rejection is 
How Democracies Die.

As a centrist, a healer like
 Michael Bloomberg is required.

 

1. Middle Class Enjoys Steady Economic Gains?

Analysis: American capitalism has been too successful.
America's Democracy-not so much!  

Government spent more, took in less.
 

Concerns: Low Social Mobility Higher Income Inequality

2. Both Political Parties Want Sacrifice?

 Democrats want sacrifices to
lower potential climate change cost.
Trump wants sacrifice to
to lower potential cost of
China Hegemonic Growth.

Editor: Future Cost and Benefits are Difficult to Measure and Unpredictable!

See Writing the Green New Deal?   U.S. Strategic Geopolitical Plan Update

 

ROI on Energy Subsidies

source: energy subsidies paper

 

Oil/Gas Got the Most Help


Koch Families Opinions of Interest

Energy Demand Realties
1. Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy
2. A 2% decline in the hydrocarbon share of world energy use
    entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on
    alternatives.
3. When the 3rd world’s poor increase energy use to a third of
    Europe’s, energy use global demand increase by twice
    America’s total consumption.
4. A 100x growth in electric vehicles to 400 million by 2040
    would displace 5% of global oil demand.
14. Batteries to store two-day’s of U.S. electricity demand
      would require 1,000 years of production by world’s
      biggest battery factor.

Realities About Energy Economics

17. Over 30 years Investing $1 million returns:
      solar or wind produces  40 million and 55 million kWh
      shale produces 300 million kWh from natural gas

19. It costs <$0.50 to store a barrel of oil/natural gas and
      $200 to store the equivalent energy in batteries.
25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of natural
       gas & coal, but electric rates rose 20% since 2008
       because of subsidies for solar/wind
.

Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute,
and author of Work in the Age of Robots by Encounter Books.

 

 

Energy Physics Realities
26. Transforming the energy economy is not like putting a
       few people on the moon, it's like permanently putting all
       of humanity on the moon.
28. If solar power could be scaled like computer-tech,
       a postage-stamp size solar array would power
       the Empire State Building.
29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery the size of a
      book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner to Asia.
31. Physics limit for solar cells (the Shockley-Queisser limit)
      is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into
      electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%.
32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech.
      Physics limits for wind turbines (Betz limit) are
      a max capture of 60% of energy in moving air;
      commercial turbines achieve 45%.
35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined, moved and
       processed for every pound of battery fabricated.
39. A battery-centric grid and car world means mining
       gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper,
       nickel, graphite, rare earths,
       cobalt, etc.—and using millions of tons of oil and coal
       both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete.
40. China dominates global battery production with its grid
       70% coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese batteries will
       create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing
       oil-burning engines.
See Decoupling-Debunked  
    Source: Inconvenient Energy Realities

 

Foreign Policy Analysis

Source

 

Is Trump's Trade War a Geopolitical War?
Like the Cold War, Winning Will Sacrifice Required.

Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass on China Trade Deal   
Both agree a move to confrontational capitalism is warranted.
 Tom Friedman agrees on the seriousness of the issues.

Parag Khanna Google’s pulling Huawei's Android
 license is 'intimately connected' to US-China trade war.

 See Trump’s Foreign Policy Is No Longer Unpredictably

Editor's Notes:
1. Because Trump's policy smears our foreign policy establishment,
bias concerning Trump's Foreign Policy  is possible.
Read sources for opinions. Of course Nixon ignored FP establishment.

2. Trump is much like Reagan. Both knew little theory and few statistics.
 Reagan belied that capitalism was just better than Communism.
 This led to conflicted Russian relations as he called them and evil empire while getting along with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.

 

Questions:
Why did the Americans know so little about Russia's economic chaos? Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear?
 Is Trump being buddies with Putin an attempt
 at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?

Trump's Military Spending Requires Continuing Sacrifice

 

 

Best Navy in Asia-Japa

The best navy in Asia has 114 warships and 45,800 volunteer personnel. It's fleet has fast, powerful destroyers, thoroughly modern diesel-electric attack submarines, and amphibious ships that can haul tanks and other ground forces. It can hunt submarines, square off against invasion fleets, and shoot down enemy ballistic missiles. Despite all of that firepower, this is not in fact a navy at all, but an armed cohort of civil servants.

Japan Approves Record Defense Budget of 5.3 Trillion Yen ..

 

Learn About:

Grand Strategy of Western Leaders
China, Russia, and U.S. Geopolitical Rivals? 
Trump's New Geopolitical Er

 

Some US Military Spending Protects Europe

Will Trump et them to organize.
Where were Obama, Bush, Clinton?

 

Fewer Europeans Sacrifice

Is it time for Germany and France to Put Up or Shut Up?


China's Economic Miracle in Context

Source

 

Reform Eras Income Growth

Schooling Better, But Slowed by Rural Areas

 

Borrowing Could Be a Problem!

3. Forgiving Student Loans?

The surprising role of high-income families in student debt trends
 

Millennials Aren’t Drowning
in Student Debt

Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt  Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers  accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly payments of less than $200). B, Akers, Manhattan Inst

 

 

 

 

Benefits from Forgiving Student Debts
Student receiving loan relief reduced their use of
credit cards resulting in debt reduction by 26%.
They were 11% less likely to default on other accounts.
Geographical mobility increased, more changed jobs,
and income increased by about $3000 over a three year.
NBER Working Paper No. 25810. 6/19
M. Di Maggio, A. Kalda, V. Yao  purchase  $5

A Personal Diary
1. I helped N.H. passes a 1970's Student Loan Program.
2. By 1989, tuition grants at Franklin Pierce College reached
    $1,000,000. Grants go to most desired students, most
    others pay closer to full tuition based on state/local loans,
    grants, and scholarships.
4. Consulting firms searched the applicant pool to determine
    which extra curricula activities will generate the most cash.
6. Loans to parents become the first choice of college
    councilors because they can be larger and attended
    colleges are not held responsible for bad debts.
7. Increased Graduate school loans were caused when
    year two loans could begin the summer of year one.

4. A Need for Socialism?

Government Economic Involvement began with Hamiltonian Economics
which centering  on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's presidency. Soon on politicians battled minimal state liberalism (today's conservatism) and active state liberalism (today's liberalism). Public good expansion began in Ernst in the  20th century. Today Conservatives and Progressives do battle to control federal spending.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

Charles Jones and Peter Klenow proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working time. less is better life expectancy more is better and inequality less is better.

table1

Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing.
The French

Take long vacations and retire earlier, and so they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States),  presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:

Are Americans Better Off than they were a Decade or Two-Ago B. Bernanke

A wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might be ruled unconstitutional .  It would be simpler to increase in tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and gift taxes.

 

 

Understanding Issues Changed Attitudes!

 

 

Consider Reality When Voting Tax Policies

source washingtonpost.com/

Editor: Will Investigate When Candidates are Determined.

 

Asian Team Polluting Team Beating the West

See Decision 2020
Considerations and Recommendations

Socialism is the Latest Battle

Does Slow USA Population Growth,
Like Europe, Mean Geopolitical Dependence?

Population Change 1790-2020
and the Projected Change in Congressional Representation

 

Learn More About 2020 Election

Conservatism vs. Progressivism  
Election of 1795 Begins the Battle
Determining Political Power and "We the People"

Geopolitics
Trump's Grade 8/19 Report

Economic myths Democrats peddled at debate

 Ramesh Ponnuru | Bloomberg Opinion

The Rise and Fall of 20th Civility

Adolph Ochs bought the NYT in 1898.
He responded to his many Yellow Journalism competitors with

"All The News That's Fit To Print."
Result was more congenial media for about 60 years.

Why has Civility Declined, Animosity, and Polarity Increased

 1. Were Supreme Court Actions the Cause?
Court Allowed State Redistricting Plans, Schools Integration/busing/housing, Abortion
Trouble began when Federal efforts went beyond stopping Jim Crow laws.
 

2. Has Political Control Affected Civility?
Political Parties Began to polarize
when FDR kept control
of the Democratic Party by excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.
Northern Democrats
began catering to blacks.
LBJ sealed the change
with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
Roe v. Wade a
dded fuel to the fire.
South
became Republican, Coasts became Democratic.
Reagan
sealed the breach and political polarity intensified.

State Management Differs With Single Party Control

 

Please Share

3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute?

The 1987 Communication Industry Fairness Doctrine was eliminated.
Radio Stations were no longer required to present contrasting views.
Rush Limbaugh, who had popularized conservative talk radio, now had fewer restrictions.
Talk Radio and Identity Politics Flourished.
Conservative and Liberal Polarization Proliferate
 

4. The Telecommunications Act of 1996
allowed multi-station company ownership and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications

 (now 
iHeart Media owned over 800 US radio stations
and
  Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.
[3] 
 

5. Citizens United v. FEC 
Allowed Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship diversified,
 which supported both intended and unintended
Fake News.


6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public

Mohamed Ali practically invented this 1960's genre
 as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
 which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.

Larry Bird
and others soon followed.


7. Banning Earmarks in 2011
increased polarization as political cooperating to
 “bring home the bacon” ended.

See Avoiding Effects Of Groupthink


Anxiety Caused Populism

Americans are at each other’s throats. Here is one way out.
Inspired by this Amanda Ripley Washington Post Opinion 12/20/19  

High conflict is irresolvable and will continue even when the associated problems are solvable.
Social Psychologist Peter T. Coleman's book, “
The Five Percent
, states that about 1 in every 20 conflicts are this way.  
“Once we are drawn in, they take control,” They enrage, trap frustrate, drain our energy/critical resources, and will never go away.

A 2017 survey of 1,000 Americans found 40 percent of both Republicans and Democrats thought the other party was downright evil.
Five to 15 percent of both parties would support some level of violence against their political opponents.
A minority of ‘... haters’ can have more influence than a majority of non-haters 
Halperin writes in his book Emotions in Conflict.”

In high conflict, our brains behave differently. Fear, anger and hatred rule.
Sometimes anger can be useful. It can support reconciliation, taking risks in peace talks...
Hatred assumes the enemy is unchangeable, irredeemable, and unimprovable. They must be annihilate. 

We can get the minority of haters to stop hating because a peace message lowers Americas’ support for political violence.
After Trump
tweeted
condemnation for the Charlottesville racist violence, violence support dropped for partisan voters.
Joe Biden's similar peace
message condemning an Antifa attack on a conservative journalist also lowered support for such violence.

How to Reset a Mind Set
An ingrained negativity bias leads to a perpetual sense of crisis,
a feeling that things are getting worse—even when things are getting better. Source:
The Wall Street Journal

Epilog
I recently began adding political economy studies to Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode to the post WW 1 United States.

Anxiety increased when blacks increased their economic and political power.
They received more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.

White Christian middle class men and women were no longer the center of society.

Educators had long been acting as if the normal curve did not apply to academic education.
It would be the great equalizer and solve most issues.
They were wrong. This failure added to our anxiety.

Then the Great Recession created many hardships in rural areas and the Rust Belt.
Government efforts helped few-mainly
ambitious individual who had move to urban areas.

Equal educational opportunities were not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and nurture were not equally distributed.

Education
Change was needed.

Special blame goes to the politicians, economists and other professionals.
Economic success and political stability from 1980-2000 fostered technocrats control.
Too often technocrats provided inadequate, bias Information that was not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the real
Fake News.
It is more dangerous than the fake news coming from lies,

once called
Yellow Journalism and Propaganda.

The Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed by the Reagan Revolution and then by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on many middle class white Christians.
 Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back to the beginning,
to their Great Society/ Roe v Wade animosity.
Trump's election signified a new
Populism.
 It is much like our other
20th Century Populism episodes.

Democracy is supposed to be troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving
populist issues to Millennials
who may take control during what some consider a
Fourth Turning.
source.

See Can We Talk or is Civil Discourse Dead

Socialism, Capitalism and Political Economy

Socialism emerged from the French Revolution as a powerful political force to serve the dispossessed.
 It was relegated to the margins in the United States, although economic conditions sometimes brought it to center court.

 

Economic Systems
Attempt to Solve
"the" Scarcity Problem


In the Beginning

Socialism was a moral movement of intellectuals who loathed inequality, despised the intellectual shallowness of the rich, and sought to bring life to their visions.

Capitalism is not especially intellectual or moral,  it is a reality of the industrial revolution.

Socialist imagined a socialist utopian system. Socialist believe political equality requires wealth equality. Production is for the common good.

Some felt private control of investment flawed capitalism as wealth creation went  to the rich who reinvesting for their highest capital return. This meant that low return of social goods were neglected.  Socialist believe this limited human possibilities.

The public, using a democratic process, controls the state. States should determine investment goals and resulting strategy. This is accomplished  by controlling property and investment capital. Production will be for the common good and not for state officials.

Classical Socialism
has collective ownership of economic factors of production and state management of equally distributed resulting production.

Recent Application
Democratic Socialism
developed after WW in war torn  Western Europe. The key characteristics were public ownership of key transportation and communication industries. It also has showed increased concerns and spent additional resources to help the disadvantaged.

Note: Neoliberal economics was used by England's Margaret Thatcher in 1979  to dismantled England's brand of Socialism. She was followed, in much of Europe. In 1981, President Ronald Reagan followed her policies to reverse the social and regulatory concessions being won, often over the object of the Supreme Court. The expensive socialist programs of SS Medicare/Medicate and tax-expenditures were not only not touched- they were expanded. 

Note: 19th Century Capitalism  wealth was managed by owners wanting the highest capital return. They neglected the low return of social goods.  Democratic Socialist believe this limited human possibilities.
 

 

Classical Capitalism
has
individual ownership of economic factors of production
with
free competitive markets distribution of resulting production.
 

Recent Application
Mixed Economy  developed in the United States in the late 19th century. Being a Republic, the people decided the economic the distribution of wealth.
Phase 1 had the people slowly took more control value created  by demanding health, safety and wage concession from Gilded Age capitalists. 
Phase 2 was a response to the Great Depression. FDR forced a public/private partnership to help the unemployed-farmers, began the regulation of banking-finance, and created a safety net system led by social security.
Phase 3 had LBJ adding to Medicare and Medicaid.

Neoliberal economists led the fight to remove many the mixed economy regulations designed to limit middle class suffering and they also cut back on safety net programs. These attempts failed and the Great Recession may begin a new phase.

Capitalism Was Not Imagined or Planned

It was a reality emerging with the Industrial Revolution.
It required investment and the reinvested of profit.
Its wealth creation soon dwarf that of European aristocracy.

Unlike socialism, capitalist did not contemplate the virtue of wealth or the effects of industrialism on the human condition.
Not an ideology, intellectuals did not defend it until the 20th century when Hayek and Friedman, among others, sought did so.

Capitalism explainer Adam Smith wrote “The Wealth of Nations.” It described how individual decisions, driven by self-interest, would culminate in an increased wealth of nations. In “The Theory of Moral Sentiments,” Smith argument that moral development resulted from appropriate management.

Capitalism maximized wealth, it did not limit inequality.
Investments were based on capital return expectations.
Capital would move toward maximum creation of wealth.
The process left some serving the system, excluding others.

Basic Characteristics Described by Adam Smith

Private property-individuals own resources
Freedom of enterprise-own a business

Freedom of economic choice-work/not work, spend/not spend
Role of self-interest

Competitive Market System
Laissez-Faire Government let markets operate freely
Questionable Degree of Government Involvement a concern  

Source Basic Characteristics of Capitalism

 

 

Capitalists creates wealth for a few, allowing much suffering.
Capitalist investments comes from diversified investor decisions.
This limits the consequences and magnitude  of poor decisions.
Capital devastation, not annihilation is the worst possible result.
Protecting the investment process allows recoveries from devastation.

Socialism places confidence in public control of the state because
they public understands needs, but they are not sensitive to cost.
Reallocation of capital investment  to the state would eases suffering
The state is an abstraction so decisions are made by state officials.
Civil servants or elected representatives having no vested interest,
would make the good democratically approved public good investments.
Having minimal power and unbound by self-interest, they can
take the place of self-interested capitalistic investors.


 

See Capitalism vs. Socialism

 

Democracy is a difficult fit for Pure Socialism

It evolves toward a Soviet direction or
toward the oft-cited Swedish model which allows private investment
while transferring tax money to the state for the public good.

          

The Soviets managed most civil servants with terror.
Sweden's democratic process manages the desire
for increased social benefits with the need to maximize
production resulting from private capital investment.

Diversified Investors Protects Capital
from making continuing poor decisions. When inefficiencies occur and affected industries adjust or lose to new efficient ones.
Joseph Schumpeter called this “creative destruction.” This efficiency may generate a rapid, intense crises which may lead to social unrest, chaos, and repression.
Will Politics protect top 0.1%

Abolishing Greed and State Minimization fantasies aside,
the two systems have more or less merged
.

Capitalists and socialists both accept private investment. Both expect economic growth and more taxes paid. Both capitalism and social democracy imposed taxes to cushion crisis dislocations.

 

Both Have Unhappy Voters

Regardless of system, paying taxes is hated and receiving benefits loved.
Political system decides who pays taxes and politicians pander to voters.

Politician differ on taxes and purpose but  fearing anarchy, must balance the system.
As a result, modern capitalism and social democracy distinctions are minimal.

Democratic socialism now a Democratic Party consideration.

Why?

Donald Trump won the votes of a dissatisfied industrial workforce.
The Democrats had mistakenly replaced a New Deal cohort with many cohorts.
Their  current Mixes Economy approach to meeting cohort needs will
determine their 2020 convention winner.
 

Discussion of socialism indicates a commitment to unspecified radical change.
But the massive convergence between French Revolution socialists and capitalism in the 19th and 20th century means there is little economic system change available.

The debate is functionally archaic

Capitalism vs. Socialism

 

 

A Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House of Representatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House
of Representatives Foreign influence on Domestic Politics
Click to enlarge cartoon.
 

21st Century Terror

 

Homegrown European Terror Decreased

Islamic Terror Hitting Western Europe


 

Many Causes of U.S. Terror 

Motives Varied

1984 San Ysidro Lone
government/humanity

1986 Edmond post office
work related

1991 Luby's shooting
Hispanics, Gay, Women issues

1999 Columbine HS
no obvious motive

2007 Blacksburg
mental/physical issues

 


2007 Binghamton NY
self image/career issues

2009 Fort Hood
career issues

2012 Sandy  Hook
obsession with mass murders

2015 San Bernardino
inspired by Islamic terrorists

2016 Orlando Nightclub
many unrelated issues

 

homegrown-terrorists -were-almost-all-right-wing

 

Sources wished

9/11/01 Began an Era of Fear
Suddenly Our Invulnerable Nation Felt Dramatically Unsafe

Sources  economic wellbeing    David Brooks

Learn More About  Terror

 

Fake News

Unintended
When Professionals Provide Inadequate,
Bias Information.
It is Worse Than

Intended
A Modern Name for
Yellow Journalism
and Propaganda,
provided Fodder for
Media, Politicians Think-tanks.

Unbiased News
Look for a date,
author, data source,
logical facts, internet domain, writing style...

Fake News Warning # 1 Claiming Trumpisms are Lies
 

12. The Bottom Line
Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

A. WW 1 Began Middle Class Wealth Accumulation in England

 

Source author has a different interpretation of data.
UK's Hidden Wealth indicates a smaller drop for those at the very top.
Wealth should include government required insurance.

U.S. Wealth Accumulation Even Earlier


Log Scale link


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B1. US Growth Continues to Continue

B2.  Great Recession Temporally Slowed Growth

 
     
 

 

Consumption Gets Most Growth

Editor's Note: Most politicians want
more G for infrastructure
.
Some want more G for education.
Some want more G for entitlements.
Some want more G for the safety net.
Some want more G for defense.
All politicians are buying votes.
Until economic growth picks up, all sectors will increase debt.

 

Still Populism Developed as

Politicians, the Media,
 and Professionals Can/Have Made
Much Money, Power and Gained Respect
      by Influencing/Creating Negativity!

See
Fake News   Please Share!

Editor's Note:
Knowing how the US poorly measures economic reality,
 I wants someone to determine exactly how well our poor live now,
have lived in the recent past, and will live in the Future.

 
     


 

Poor Education Test Scores
an Over-Hyped
Problem

 

Long Term Test Results
Slightly Up as Tests Get Harder

See complete data for
age 9, age 13, and age 17.

 

 

 

 

 

Trend in NAEP reading average scores

Trend in NAEP reading average scores for 9-, 13-, and 17-year-old students< - see complete data links below for full data in table format.

U.S. STEM Education
Compares Well Internationally 2007 vs. 2015
By 5/20/19

Measuring Innovation in Education 2019.
Note: All of the following results were calculated using TIMSS data.

How frequently do 4th grade students
use computers when learning math?
 

U.S. rose    18 - 79%     OCED  42 - 51%

How frequently do 8th grade students
do math homework at least twice a week?
 
US fell 86 - 75%   OECD 56 - No Change

Do teachers of 4th grade science
show experiments with half their lessons?
  
US rose 16 - 36 percent     OECD 13 - 35%

Do 4th grade students actually perform
science experiments or investigations?

 US rose 45 - 53%     OCED 33 - 46%

Are Incentives used to recruit and retain
STEM 8th math teachers?

US 7 - 6%     OECD 10 - 8%

Source: How US STEM practices compare internationally

 
  Editor's Thoughts:
 
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a good thing or not.
  2. US policies and practices don't look all that different.
  3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously distinctive.
  4. Almost all students lose interest in math and science.
    Computers and experiments may delay this decision, but they also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

    Homework may teach some to be more responsible, but again it  also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

    More money for teachers is usually good but one of the best teachers I have observed since 1950
    was, by almost all measures, a poor teacher.

    Maximize a students reading ability
    Teach a little practical math
    Get out of the way

Consider the Advice from Historical and Current Leaders

 

 
 

Ability and Major Determines Earnings
Top AA Earners Earn More Than Bottom Half of Bachelor's Graduates
More Data Career Guidance       Lifetime Earnings

Pay
%

Associate's
Starting Pay

Bachelor's
 Starting Pay

   Job Type

Bachelor's Premium With 10 Years Experience

10th

$21,000   

$25,400

Admin.Assist.

10% 4%

25th

$26,700   

$32,900

Dental Hygienist

9% 5%

50th

$35,100   

$43,200

Registered Nurse

4% 6%

75th

$46,700  

$56,900

Construction Manager

17% 19%

90th

$61,600  

$73,800

Inside Sales Rep.

15% 24%

 

 
 

Postscript: We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War
2. The Civil War
3. WW 1

4. Great Depression Poverty
5. WW 2
6. War on Poverty
7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse

 

 
 

Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters Who Vote for Incumbents

Historically, the U.S. Has Succeeded Using Inflation
and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.

People loved dot-coms until they didn’t.
They loved credit default swaps until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.

When the music stops
for expanding liquidity,
things will be complicated."
Chuck Prince on debt-fueled
 private equity deals before
 the economy collapsed.

 
 

 

 
   
 

 
 

The years 1968, 1969, and 1970 had many noticeable events:
early baby boomers moved into their 20’s;
assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy;
 the women’s movement; the draft lottery, the bombing of Cambodia,
unrest on college campuses. Woodstock, Stonewall...

Did any of these increase the impatience of the country in a permanent way?
There are likely stories that could be woven, undoubtedly more than one,
but it is unclear whether anything
 could be tested.
The question is probably too big,
but the fact is interesting. Source

See World Getting Better video
Child Labor Photos    
Longer-Term Economic Questions
 
The Bottom Line

 

 

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility     Taxes     Debt     Government    
   
Populism  Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Productivity Gains > Wage Gains

See Understanding US Productivity Slowdown
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

Profit Gains > Wages/Salaries Gains
But US Wages Increased Consistently!

 

 

 

 

 

Causes Are Numerous

mckinsey.com/

Editor's Nope: Pay eligibility will vary depending on selected price index.
Most people select the index that helps their point of view.

BLS Data

 

Source: one picture economic
 

The Good

Source: Is The Narrative On Worker Pay Accurate?

 

 

 The Bad

Difference Could Get Even Larger

See Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis and  Unchecked Power

 

American Enterprise Institute

 

Retiree Data:


 

U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015
 

 

 

Crime is Down

Source

Few Believe It!

Source

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility    

Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism   Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line    

 6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Poverty Demographics

Poorer States Get Most Federal Help

Note: This does not say "Most Children are poor."

Is Poverty a Condition or a Position?

Growing up in a rural 1950's Massachusetts Observations

Conditions
Elderly
lived with their children, few had health insurance or much income.

Poor Families lived in older house at the end of a dirt road.

Poor Children were skinny, often dirty, didn't finish HS,
 pooped around and then went into military, found a trade or pumped gas.

Almost no one had air conditioning.

Position
Almost all benefited economically after WW 2 but
those in the bottom quintile were economically less well-off.

 

Retired in Rural 2003 Central Florida Observations

Conditions
Elderly
live on their own with Medicare and improved SS.
Poor families lived in older lowland house or trailers.
Poor Children, obesity a problem, most finish HS, try college,
go into one of many services, industry and live at home.

Position
Poverty Rate Stuck, which ignores the safety net, is stuck at 15%.
 Liberals misuse poverty data and Conservatives despise safety net.

 


Some Feel Rich Have Too Much of Our Wealth

Wealth of Lower Income Cohorts should Includes
Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and Help from Friends and Family.

 

Elderly and Children Receive Substantial Assistance

The Working Poor

   

Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net

Working Means Fewer Benefits

See Little Help from 2nd Worker  

States Determine When Income is Too High to Receive a Benefit
Family Size 100% 133% 138% 250%
1 $12,140 $16,146 $16,753 $30,350 $48,560
2 $16,460 $21,892 $22,715 $41,150 $65,840
3 $20,780 $27,637 $28,676 $51,950 $83,120
4 $25,100 $33,383 $34,638 $62,750 $100,400
5 $29,420 $39,129 $40,600 $73,550 $117,680
6 $33,470 $44,515 $46,189 $84,350 $133,880
7 $38,070 $50,633 $52,537 $95,150 $152,280
8 $42,380 $56,365 $58,484 $105,950 $169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320 for each additional person. Note: Eligibility for premium tax credits in coverage year 2019 is based on poverty guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty line.
mm

Few Real Poor Work

 

Source

 

 

 


Education
Work
Health
Safety
Poverty
Civility
Terror
Taxes
Debt
Government

Geopolitics
Fake News
Bottom Line

2020 Election
Decision
2020

Have FED's Improve Education?

Prelude:
"It does not matter how slowly you go
as long as you don't stop."
Confucius
Source1: Historical Leaders Education Observations
P. Drucker Emphasize what learners do well
.
Source:
Advise from Recent Leaders

 

More Finish HS-Confucius Would be Happy


Median Wealth Down

stlouisfed.org

1. FED's Get to Set the Rules Without Providing the Money!

wsj

2. Federal Laws Have Unintended Consequences 

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting the unionization of public employees

In 1969, the Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending
students who bring political protest inside the schools
.
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:
,

"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools, kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."
[9]

"We now have "The Language Police, education historian Diane Ravitch's meticulous but horrifying narrative
of how the major textbook publishers, the testing companies and state education departments have
reduced what public-school kids learn to politically correct, politically laughable..."

Editor: In the years since, courts and legislatures gave the neighborhood school yet another big legal obligation:
They Must Mainstream and educate severely disabled kids.
 

1969 the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending students who bring political protest
 
inside the schools.
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:
,
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools,
kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
 it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."

In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court
ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court  ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."

 

3. FED Rules and Money
Did Not Increase Testing Results

Manhattan Institute

 

4. One Answer Individualized Curriculums where Local Community Prioritize Goals

Learn More About Testing

Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.

There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to provide worker training. To some extent this is already happening -- in 2017, according to one report, U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior). Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the publicly funded education system to do it for them.

Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely regarded as having been successful in Germany, and with evidence suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education, these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be useful for white-collar jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor has been helping set up apprenticeships.

 

5. Testing Headlines Misinform

2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International Students Assessment


See
On the World Stage
U.S. Students Fall Behind

Massachusetts PISA Scores
are about the same as Singapore.


 Data on test taker percentages
not provided.
Prejudice for and against
makes all data Suspect.

 

 

A Different Look

Testing Headlines Chase Money-Not Truth

The Nation's Report Card Unchanged

 

Mathematics

A line graph shows that the national average mathematics score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 2013, but was not significantly different compared to 2005, the first year of the current trend line based on a new framework.

Reading

A line graph shows that the national average reading score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 1992, the initial reading assessment year, but was not significantly different compared to 2013.

Math Tests Unchanged Since 1971

Image of a line graph with three horizontal lines showing average scores for age 9, age 13, and age 17 students. The X axis is labeled year and shows various years from 1971 through 2012. The Y axis is labeled scale score and shows a range of scores from 0 to 500. Each horizontal line consists of two assessment variations: original assessment format and revised assessment format. 
      There are two data points in the transition year between original and revised formats. 
      For Reading age 9: The original format was used, In 1971 = 208, significantly different from 2012; 
      In 1975 = 210, significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 215, significantly different from 2012;
       In 1984 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 212, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1990 = 209, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 211, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1994 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1996 = 212, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 
       212, significantly different from 2012; In 2004 = 219; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 216, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 220; and In 2012 = 221. For Reading age 13: 
       The original format was used, In 1971 = 255, significantly different from 2012; In 1975 = 256, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1984 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 257, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 260; In 1994 = 258, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1996 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 259, significantly different from 2012;
        In 2004 = 259, significantly different from 2012; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 257, 
        significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 260, significantly different from 2012; and In 2012 = 263. 
        For Reading age 17: The original format was used, In 1971 = 285; In 1975 = 286; In 1980 = 285;
         In 1984 = 289; In 1988 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1994 = 288; In 1996 = 288; In 1999 = 288; In 2004 = 285; 
         The revised format was used, In 2004 = 283, significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 286; and In 2012 = 287.

US Mathematics & Reading at Grade 12

 

Reasons Test Score Differ

The Difference: Report Card Tests are Constant
PISA Changes Periodically

See Long and Short-Term Testing.

Testing is Big Business

Standardized Test Sales, 1955–1997

 

Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a three-part test
 has made a lot of money for a lot of people.

Business Week
2005 reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last modified."
 

New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies.

The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.

Product Line Expanded
"
More than 25 percent of public high school seniors graduating last May
 took at least one AP test."
2/15/19 

 

Four companies that dominate the business
 of making/scoring standardized tests.
 
"
As of 2011, Gaston Caperton,  the president of the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT,
 was paid $1.3 million.
 Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
 
The National Board on Educational Testing and Public Policy at Boston College
reported that the value of the standardized testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million." huffingtonpost.com

Standardized test exists to create a better life for young people.
 But these tests  hurt young people economically and emotionally.

Epilogue: Education should center on Howard Gardner's
equally valued normally distributed
Multiple Intelligences,
 
concentrating on a student's
Special Intelligence
while
not harming  self actualization.

See Decision 2020 Education Considerations

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility     Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism  Socialism   Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line    6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

More Data on Taxes

Prelude :  Five Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?

 

Prelude:  Five Economic Tax Concerns

1-5 Ayn Rand's Predicted a Tipping Point
Which Begins a Slow Long-Term Growth Decline.

Creative Destruction Fuels Our Economic Prosperity    Source
Average of S&P 500 Index ten-year was 33 years, by 1990 it was 20 years.

Since 1955, only 52 companies still have ten-year top 500 membership.
 

Do you think higher taxes would have kept Bill Gates at Harvard?
Kept Steve jobs at Reed College and out of the computer business?

2-5 Would a Wealth Tax Lower Wealth Created by Entrepreneurs?

See Wealth Tax Economics

 

Has Private Business Reacted to Income Inequality?

Editor's Note: Should Ayn Rand and Milton Freedman are turning over in their graves?
 


3-5 Do We Over Accommodate Business

Profits Moved to the Very Top

Source

4-5 We Lead the West in Productivity

Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe adversaries, seldom enemies.

5-5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive Affected?     When and How Will They Be Affected?

 

A. Politics is in Control

A. IRS Demanding Billions Less From the Wealthy

In 2009, the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel ultra-wealthy ax dodges.

A battle had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began slashing the agency’s budget.

High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned that the squad was conducting “the audits from hell.”

In 2012 the wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes and penalties.
t after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.

Having to battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.

summarized from propublica.org

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

Congress Has Given Many a Tax Break

Corporations Pay Less So Stockholders Get More

Examples

Dodging Taxes is Easier

See Millionaires and Corporate Giants Escaped IRS Audits in FY 2018

Tax Dodge Lets Investors Save Big

"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra withdrawals
 by rapidly pumping assets in and out.

 

The Very Rich

Top 400 families have more wealth than bottom 60 percent of households,
while the top 0.1 percent own same as bottom 80 percent.
 Source

 

Wealth Tax Economics

 

 

 

 

 

C. Who Cheats and How

The Who

Wealthy Lead the Parade of Cheats

It is a Long Parade

Source: How big is the problem of tax evasion?
 

The How
 

source


Specifics Techniques

Unbiased Third Party Information Provided Income Type

Tax Liabilities Misreported %

Little or none Farm income 71%
  Nonfarm proprietor income 64
  Rents and royalties 62
  Other income 49
  Form 4797 income 42
Some Capital gains 27
  Partnership, S-corp, etc. 16
Substantial Taxable Social Security benefits 19
  State income tax refunds 13
  Dividend income 7
  Unemployment compensation 6
  Pensions and annuities 4
  Interest income 3
  Wages, salaries, tips 1

 

D. Tax Where the Money Is!

Payroll is Where the Money Is

An 8% payroll tax increase affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.

  The Math Problem That Could Sink the Bernie/AOC Agenda
See The First-Ever Social Security Check?

A women named Fuller paid a total of $24.75 of payroll taxes for three years.
In the 35 years after her retirement, she received $22,888.92 in benefits.

Do low income retirees with dependents
appreciates what a good investment return
 they may receive from social security?

 

People Want More Taken from the Rich

See Taxation Philosophies
 

Super Rich Do Have Lots More Money

 

Editorials
 

Do the rich pay lower taxes than the poor?

 

The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – David Leonhardt, New York Ti
What the NYT Didn’t Tell You – Robert Verbruggen, National Review

Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent
" Our preliminary estimate is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
 and roughly $800 billion in its first decade.
source EPI

First Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed 70 percent marginal income tax rate
 on $10 million and over to finance her Green New Deal
 affects 16,000 people with  income of $245 billion.
 It would
raise $164-382 billion over ten years.

Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000 households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the millionaires."
Source

Another Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50 million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an estate tax.

A Trump proposal requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used to qualify for means-tested federal programs.

President Barack Obama’s (failed) 2013 proposal to apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people were provided. Source: Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of the SS fund tried to do this.

See Taxes, Socialism, And Class War
Are Billionaires Fat Cats or Deserving Entrepreneurs? but 
Billionaires take more than they make.
Center for Popular Economics
source one-picture economics

 

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

Companies Use Bonus in Place of More Permanente Raises

Just one more reason to be careful when using
economic data for political economy analysis.
Source

 

Middle Households Helped Least

 

F. Would Rich Pay?

Editor's Note: Historically Very rich pay the very educated to avoid taxes.

Would Boxers Box, Musicians Play, Actors Act?

“top

 

Would Hedge Managers Hedge Like They Did Last Decade?

Would a Wealth Tax Slow Economic Growth?


Most of this Wealth Created With Government t Sponsored Technology.

 

We Spent Billions to Keep Them Hedging Beginning in 2007

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility     Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism Socialism   Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Who We Owe, Why We Borrow
Meet Our Creditors
1. US Citizens and US Government Owns Most of tithe Debt

2. Is Foreigners US Debt Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.

 

When We Borrowed

1. Borrowing Began With the Revolution

Image result for Federal Debt graphs

2. Mostly it was War

3. Human Needs Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.

4. Recessions Caused Deficits as Revenue Drops
Nominal Growth Historically Cured Deficit

Obama continued the Bush policy of fighting the Great Recession with debt
and by 12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's austerity policies.

 

Who Paid the Federal Debt

 1. Total Stays the Same

end table?
End of
Fiscal Year
US Gross Debt
in Nominal USD billions
US Gross Debt as % of GDP Question Answer
1940 43.0 52.4 No One
1950 257.4 94.1
1960 290.2 56.1
1970 389.2 37.6
1980 930.2 33.3 No One
1990 3,233 55.9
2000 5,674 58 TBD
2005 7,933 64.6
2007 9,008 65.5
2008 10,699.8 74.6 (EST)
2009           11,046.2   TBD
United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
new table?

 

2. Who Finances Deficit Rollovers?

3. Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed

 

 

Entitlements Pose a Problem

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems

Concerns

Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same, high income earners pay most Required additional health care cost difficult for many

Longer life especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases cost. Free cases poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles currently not acceptable to electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See  Table 1 and  Table 3 Deficit concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic success..
Solution just time or later retirement but politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations Table 2 Tax payers don't appreciate
 their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.

When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least possible pain.

 

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility     Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism    Socialism    Geopolitics    Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

 

 

Measured Poverty Has Changes Little

See Why Poverty is Controversial?  

 

BUT After the Safety Net
Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years 

f

 

 

This chart "...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5 to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0 percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even more." Examples of noncash benefits include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid, and Medicare. See Source Editors Comments are in red.

 

 
 

Work is Not Encouraged as Real Minimum Wage Falls
Unintended Consequence of Safety Net Increases?

 

 
 

Government Support Increased Prices

Return to Index Please Share!

 

 
 

Skilled Medical/Profession Workers Were the Big Winner

 

 
 

Learn About

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility     Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism    Socialism    Geopolitics    Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet our editor


Conservatism vs. Progressivism
as see through the eyes of George Will

"We hold these truths to be self-evident,
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..."

American Conservatism:
Preserve the Founders Thinking
as custodians of the classical liberal tradition.

Rights are natural. They preexist acts of human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's main purpose is to "secure these rights."

Human nature is permanent and statesmanship is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord with the nature of humans.

Progressivism: Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the understanding and directing of shaping forces.

Today's Conflict: 
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives want
directing of society's shaping forces.

Source: Conservative Sensibility

Classical Liberalism : the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.

New Deal Progressivism of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights.

Determining the final arbiter is always contested.
Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court

Managerial Progressives of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government operations from above and end the business cycles. 

 

Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Conservatives Want a Republic Constitution

First Comes Rights, Then Comes Government

"We the People" Viewed as Individuals
where majority can lose if Judicial Review
determines an action impedes a fundamental right.

 

Progressives Want a Democratic Constitution

First Comes Governments then Comes Rights

We the People Viewed as  One Group
where majority rules and Judicial Review
can not impede majority desires.

The Constitution was Designed to put checks and Balances on Majority Rule and as time as passed, the fear of anarchy from majority rule as lessened.

 
Federal Government Responsibilities
A Brief US Political History Defining Federal Problem Problem Disposition
From the Founding to Civil War Legitimacy in Relations to States Superior
Civil War to New Deal Power Limits to Federal Operations None
New Deal to Recently Meet Needs of all Constituencies Deficits Do Not Matter
Today Making Appropriate Collective Long term Choices Voters Not Interested in
Delayed Gratification
In response to Hamilton's desire for national direction of economic development, Madison foresaw an Administrative state which would

damage Federalism by claiming responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and
 

the resulting increase in new responsibilities would  then take its limit the affect of separation of powers moving power from legislative branch to the executive department. 

Thoughts from James .Q. Wilson, American academic, political scientist, and an authority on public administration
as reported by George Will in The Conservative Sensibility

 

 
The Judicial Supervision Difficulties of Democracy
Counter Majoritarian Difficulty

In U.S. Federalism, Governing is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court

Declaration of Independence

Goal: Secure Unalienable Rights

Affirmed Natural Right of the Individuals

Implies Democracy

Limits to Majority Rule

United States Constitution

Purpose: Define Constructed Rights of the Community

to Make Laws the Majority Deems Necessary and Proper.

Created Tension

Majority Rule is Limited and Moderated
 by the Constitution

Joining a community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court must protect the natural rights of  liberty.

The Legislature writes the laws, the Executive administers laws
 and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.

 

Election 2020 Question Possibilities

Basic Income Information

 

 


More Civility Data

A. Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining
The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between 1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from Facebook but not for twitter.

B. Politically  “teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party lines."

"This happened in the 1850s: We know what happened..."
 "Things...could get plenty bad..."  with a "...serious recession or the stock market..." crash. "

and ... as a nation we are no longer capable of making preparations for such events."

  "Political Polarization: The Rise and Decline of America's Postwar Political Order"

Editors Note: With democracy, very difficult to sacrifice before the pain. Think WW1  WW2  Gilded Age Greed

 

 

 

C. U.S. Supreme Court Job Approval Rating Ties Record Low

Trend: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?

It's Political

Trend: Supreme Court Job Approval, by Political Party

D. Individual Behavior Norms Are Expanding

 

Legality of Behavior Norms Also Up

 

Attitude Toward Abortion Unchanged

Public views of abortion: 1995-2018

 


Why the Difference?
It's About Relegion!

 
 

It's About Politics

There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion
,
with Democrats
much more likely than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.

This gap is even larger between liberal Democrats
 and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP (27%)

It's enhanced by

Roe v. Wade
Poisoned Our Politics

Michael Barone New York Post

Today’s “partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v. Wade,
said Michael Barone. The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so heated if
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might be at stake.

In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s population
had already liberalized their abortion laws
,
and America would have had different laws in different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all circumstances

and the country’s defining wedge issue.

While public opinion on cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on abortion has
scarcely budged.”

It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally moral issue
about “the way people live their lives”: Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their “personal autonomy”
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly religious,
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human lives.”

Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed it
because neither side believes it can afford any compromise
.
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.

 
 
   
   

2020 Election Info: U.S. and China Are Geopolitical Political Rivals?

end table?

U.S. Has a Strong Geopolitical Position
Power and Global Disorder 22 min video 11/8/18
Peter Zeihan

1. Largest strip of high-quality arable land in the world

2. Most Navigable Waterways in the world

3. Control best parts of a continent with moats on either side

4. If US trading system breaks down, US suffers the least!  

5. Trade subsidizes the Global system so NAFTA must work.

6. US is delusional  when thinking China is the next super power.
    She has only managed to hold together for 300 years.

Water, Energy, Soil and Food--and a Shared National Purpose Matter

Requirements for Success

U.S very good Geography that is productive and well protected.

Economically Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable demographic. The others are "terminal countries."
 

Happening faster because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations with people.
Near the end he new how important factors were interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.

But Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is following a neoconservative policy.

US has forced an acceleration of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates.
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain rapid growth.
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China will fall apart.

Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China
is Japans concern.
Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis.
Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one except Russia, is a nuclear concern.
Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South Korean/Japanese worry.

Editor's Question: Is US as protector a requirement for US business and finance to control the world?
Source:
Factors Indicating a New International Order
See Videos Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018
The Accidental Superpower and
The Absent Superpower

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan
U.S.-China Relations in 2019 video
  Kevin Rudd

Preface

U.S. Government Not Designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise.
b. Many want limited government.
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems.

Recent Exception After WW 2
a. The 1946 Long Telegram described a very aggressive Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year multi-administration policy of containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully

Containment Success
a. Fragility of Soviet economy and society caused implosion from within.
b. China is very different.

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

US Strategic Plan

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and one side backs down.

b. Competition is more adversarial but no US guidelines given.

c. Rules to be determined

Washington's Latest Attitude Toward China Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult.

b. McCarthyism in U.S. and Australia is not good Foreign Policy.

Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign challenges to the long-term survival of the Communist Party.

b.  Assistant Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a strong-man and long-time party member, move toward markets rankling some politburo bureau members.

Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes

b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends

c) Set a new direction

Recent Changes

a)  Communist Party and Ideology was enhanced
   
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
b) Ideological Confidence has increased.

c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

d) China to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform

 

2020 Election Info: Trump's Grade Report

Part One

Update 8/21/19

Keeping Promises is why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.

Love him or hate him, Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality—
or at least making the case that he tried:

Successes
  • Conservative Supreme Court justice?  double-check.
  • Tax cuts? Check, weighted toward corporations rather than the middle class.
  • Gut regulations Check.
  • Crack down check, despite his failure to build a wall. 
  • Tariffs on China? Check.
  • Declaring China a currency manipulator? Check.
  • Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pacific Rim trade deal? Check.
  • Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. Pending congressional approval.
 
Failed Promises
  • He promised in a 2016 interview, wipe out the national debt in eight years.
  • He promised great wall," and inflates the mileage mixing replacements with new construction.
  • He promised Mexico would pay, failed.
  • He promised repeal Affordable Care Act and give amazing health care to everyone. Failed
  • He promised to reverse trade deficits.  U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
  • Trump, pushed to end Afghanistan and with draw all U.S. troops failed
  • fallen short:
  • infrastructure and ending the Opioid crisis.
  •  drain the swam

axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-d97f5ef2- 

2. Trump's New Geopolitical Era?

1. Three Main Forces Blowing Up Global Politics     2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs    4. Cultural Wars    Source Geopolitics


1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

 by Summary from editor  Walter Antoniotti   antonw@ix.netcom.co
Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to
Europe/Western Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions

contributed to these disruptions and caused  many to lash out in a tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended

1.
Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

Disruptions Could Last Years
Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.

Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
3.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.

Source

A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes  by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions.
Source

3. Foreign Affairs

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Older Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source

U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision
B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political 
topic/lingua franca is important
C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step

E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts
 

4. Cultural Wars

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession  
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased
economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3)  threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neithe
r Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.

“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics.
.
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy

A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source:
The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

Causes
1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance

Understanding Right and Left Populism
Right populism
defines "the people" as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism 
2) refugees  
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...

Left populism defines “the people”
as
social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other
Right populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state.
Left populism defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
workforce casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.

More Terror Information

German recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase. Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.

US Targets Varied

Racist Trend
"White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance, and skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."

Anti-Federalist Trend
The anti-federalist “militia” or “patriot” movement) in the early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan. Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation were  anti-taxation, gun rights, and a “survivalist” lifestyle. The “farm crises” of the 1980s,  and rapid cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive movement, as well as its rapid growth.
2

Fundamentalist Trend
Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations, merges religious fundamentalism with traditional white supremacy and racist tendencies. It promotes ideas of nativism, exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according to primordial attributes.

The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud Sprinzak published a paper on the irredentist Israeli religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the Faithful) entitled “The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.”
6

 

Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility     Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
   
Populism   Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line     6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Under Construction

  Don't Trust the Experts
Editor: Not an Expert, Trust Me?
 
Analyzing Experts    

Basis Premise is Important
If Correct, they may be correct. If Wrong, they will be Wrong
 
Why incorrect: Application:
Alexander Hamilton
Constitution of the US must be strictly interpretation and when it did not give him authority to buy Louisiana from France, he bought it anyway,.
Would not be the first expert to see what he wanted to see in the US Constitution,  
Alan Greenspan:
Self Regulating Markets are not affected by financial markets.
1. Human nature requires control of events to maximize results.
2. Not being able to measure something correctly
   does not exclude it from affecting other variables.
Economic models are overvalued
George Will
Government purpose, defined by Declaration of Independence,
was to protect individual liberty.
Dec o Ind was to explain why we separated from England.
Constitution defines the management of the federation of states,
Ben Franklin said our government would be 'A Republic, if you can keep it,"

 

Climate Change

 

Image
 

Geoengineer the Planet? More Scientists Now Say It Must Be an Option (Yale Environment 360)

Unfortunately, China counters the trend away from coal. Its Belt & Road Initiative is dotting unspoiled stretches of Central Asia with the most polluting kind of coal-fired power stations.

 

A study by Global Energy Monitor cited by Corporate Knights estimates that the countries covered by the Belt and Road initiative could end up producing 66% of the world’s carbon emissions by 2050. That would increase their current level of accounting for 28% of global CO2 emissions and would cancel out the rest of the world’s efforts in restraining temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius.

The Cosmic Ray Climate Link

 

COP25 Ends Without Deal on Big Polluters’ Responsibility to Frontline Nations 12/17/19

 

Global electricity inequality is a tale of two continents: Asian convergence & African divergence. Decisions on financing & building infrastructure in Africa will be made in the fossil-fueled offices of Washington, London, Paris & Beijing

 

Global electricity inequality is a tale of two continents: Asian convergence & African divergence. Decisions on financing & building infrastructure in Africa will be made in the fossil-fueled offices of Washington, London, Paris & Beijing. resourcewatch.org/data/explore?

washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019

/

Qatar was always hot. Climate change is making it completely unbearable. The response is to air-condition even the outdoor stadiums of the soccer world cup. washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/

 

 

 

WinP Immigration

 

 

7.8 million illegal aliens took US Jobs in 2016
Pushback has business looking for an alternative.

 

 

The U.S. repatriated about 400,000 Mexicans from 1929 to 1934. "Politicians at that time argued that it would give jobs to American workers and attenuate the unemployment problems caused by the Great Depression. ... Overall, not only did politicians’ claims not materialize, but it seems like the repatriation program may have hurt some native workers. Specifically, the repatriation of Mexicans, who were mostly laborers and farm workers, reduced demand for other jobs in the local economy mainly held by natives," Jongkwan Lee, Giovanni Peri and Vasil Yasenov write in an Institute of Labor Economics discussion paper.

475,000: In the fiscal year to September, US Border Patrol arrested some 475,000 people trying to enter the US without papers as families, up 342 percent from the same period in 2018. Of those apprehended, 76,020 were minors, that's more than during any other period on record.

 

 

 

statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states?gclid=

 

 

0: For the first time since it began keeping monthly records, the United States in October resettled precisely zero refugees from abroad. This comes as the Trump administration is cutting the overall number of refugees permitted in the United States and tightening requirements for entry.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Definitions

"Foreign born" and "immigrant" are used interchangeably and refer to persons with no U.S. citizenship at birth. This population includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, refugees and asylums, persons on certain temporary visas, and the unauthorized.

Geographical regions: MPI follows the definition of Latin America as put forth by the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, which spans Central America (including Mexico), the Caribbean, and South America. For more information about geographical regions, see the U.S. Census Bureau and United Nations Statistics Division.