Work Education Health Safety Poverty

Taxes Debt Government Civility Populism

2020 Election Socialism Terror Fake News

The Bottom Line See Decision 2020

10/19/19

Workers Betrayed by Capitalism?

See Post WW 2 US Economic Normality and Post WW 2 World Economic Normality

bridgewater.com/

Democracy Awards Many Resources to Capital and Enterprise

Outsourcing helped
Maintain and eventually increase profit.

#1 US Manufacturing moved South out of Northeast and Midwest.

#2 Manufacturing and Middle Skilled Work moved out of US.

#3 US Pressure caused Foreign Manufacturing to
move to US low cost locations helping wage growth.

# 4 China created jobs assembling parts from other Asian countries.

#5 Jobs moving out of China to lower cost country.

#6 China increased wages.

#7 China began moving up the product value chain.

See Jobs Leave With or Without Outsourcing

Middle-Skill Jobs Suffered

see Who Got the Money

The Future of Work (2015) Lawrence Summers

"...the idea that you can just have better training and then there are all these jobs, all these places where there are shortages and we just need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."

" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs. If you help some people, you could help them get the jobs, but then someone else won't get the jobs. "

See The Future of Work

Editor's Thought:

John Mueller's 1995 statement concerning Retrospection Bias.
�... no matter how much better the present gets,
the past gets better faster..."
Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in them:
they are always back there somewhere.�

Decision 2020 Options for Work

College Federal Involvment

1. College

Source: Is Financial Aid Welfare?

Education System Worked For Many

But Some Need a Radically New Approach

Many of the 15% who stopped Looking for Work likely didn't finish HS.

Question: Why do educators much time preaching education is a life long process
and as much time saying we need to cover more and more academic stuff?

See Improving American Primary and Secondary Education

Part 2

It's the real Fake News. Source: Manhattan Institute

2016 HS Graduates With Good Job

25-44 ≥ $35,000

45 -65 ≥ $45,000

1) HS or Less 12.9 million

2) Some College: 15.7 million had good jobs

3) Bachelor's Degree or More 36.3 million

Source

The Merit Aid-Illusion

Uncle Sam is calling in chips.

Are College Marketing Efforts Useful?

Collections of delinquent student loans

See Interesting Thoughts Concerning Education

Earnings boost from going to a top college, by parents' income

Many Diseases Cured

Poor Health Habits Hurt Many

An estimated 45.4% of all deaths
caused by heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes are
associated with eating either too much/little of 10 food categories.
Journal of the American Medical Association.

Learn About Healthy Eating Habits

Children are Safer
Autos were Much Safer

But School Shootings Up
Fatalities Up to 55 in 2018

3,037 Fewer Teenage Fatalities
from Injuries Occurred in 2018.

Learn Which

Violent Crimes Decreased From Early
1990s Peak

Everyone is Safer, But

Poverty Rate is Stuck?

Our Poor are Living Better

Better than the
World's Average Person

Source

Editor's Notes:

Measuring economic Wellbeing is difficult.
Poor economic measures overstate poverty.
Undervalued Inexpensive Well-Made Asian Products are Undervalued.
Some inflation adjustments understate

wage increases.
Improved Government Imposed Building Standards Are Ignored.
U.S. Poverty Rate is Fake News Why?
It Ignores Our Safety Net and Purchasing Power.

Three Poverty Rate Measurements
Official-based on CPI data
Supplemental-includes government safety net programs
Consumption-based on Consumer Expenditure Survey
Income inequality rose in both the top and bottom halves of the distribution,
but increases in consumption inequality are only evident in the top half.
The differences are also concentrated in single parent families and single individuals. https://www.nber.org/papers/w23655 https://www.economist.com/special-repo

Highlights of the New 2018 Census Bureau

The Good

1. The Official Poverty Measure fell to 11.8%, the lowest it has been since 11.7% in 2001,
which was the end of the 1990s expansion, and before that, not since the late 1960s.

2. This data from ignores noncash benefits such as SNAP, health benefits, and subsidized housing.
Such benefits have grown 16 times faster than anti-poverty benefits counted as income.

3. Full-time, full-year workers poverty rate was 2.3% percent in 2018.
For those aged 18 to 64 who did not work it, was 29.7%.

For families headed by married couples it, was 4.7%.
For those headed by a single female it, was 24.9%.

For �no spouse present,� income increased 5.8%.

Female full-time, full-year median real earnings rose 40% since the 1970s..
Male full-time, full-year real median earnings were flat.

The Bad

Adults over age 25 without a high school diploma poverty rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%.

The South high poverty rate of 13.6% was the only region not to decline.

Primary Sources Official Poverty Measure Supplemental Poverty Measure

The Congressional Budget Committee
should audit economic statistics and report those that misrepresent wellbeing.

Question: Should Poverty Rate be Renamed the Poverty Eligibility Rate?

Learn About Poverty Demographics The Working Poor

See Decision 2020 Poverty Considerations

Tax Rates Went Down

Government Debt Increased

Federal Share of GDP
Changed Little

Editor's Note: CBO Budget Projections
Are Notoriously Poor.

IRS budget cuts resulted in $34.3 billion in lost tax large firm revenue.

Why isn't the IRS on commission?

More Tax Analysis

Prelude: Economic Concerns A. Politics is in Control B. Legally Avoiding Taxes C. Who Cheats and How

D. Tax Where the Money Is! E. Attitudes Toward Taxes F. Would Rich Pay?

Federal Debt
Two Kinds

1. Bonds/Notes pay interest to owners.
2. Dollars pay no interest.
3. Transactions only occur in dollars which the FED prints as needed.

You Will Get Your FED Retirement Check.
It's value, by today's rules, adjusts for inflation.
States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen.
You Might Not Get Your State Retirement.

BUT FED Debt Has Risk
Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate

Printing too many dollars
has historically caused inflation.

Debt increases demand.
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
World Oversupply Keeps Inflation Low.

A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises.

"If readers take one lesson from this book, I hope it is this: when it comes to financial crises, we're not in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces. Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable. Runaway private debt and the resulting overcapacity does a better job than any other variable in explaining and predicting financial crises. It is our job to heed those danger signs."
(Vague 2019, p. ix) Brief History of Doom (INET) has concise data summary Video 14 min.

Editor's Note: Public Debt Concerns are Not Financial.
Who receives the money and
what is bought concerns many.
Source: Symposia Historical Evolution Money and Debt

Supporters of High Debt Say
Interest Cost Are Low

Many Predict Trouble

U.S. Debt: Is It the Calm Before the Storm? podcast: knowledge@Wharton

Inflation/Growth Historically
Lowered Relative Debt

Many will say "who cares" because they believe in
Modern Monetary Policy

FED Printing Money Could Cause Inflation Leading to Higher Interest Rates Requiring More Tax Dollars.

Selected Countries by value

Inefficient Reasonably efficient World Leader

China - $952.6 billion - 26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture
United States - $204.9 billion - 1.42% employed in agriculture
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% employed in agriculture
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% employed in agriculture
France - $55.6 billion - 2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion --2.57% employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion -4.31% employed in agriculture

But

See Should the Federal Debt be Paid from class notes I first wrote in 1966.

Government Spends
About 21% of GDP

Everyone Got More
But Some Got More Than Others
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!

Government Spending Grew 17.5% to 21.5% of GDP People Got More, Defense Got Less An example of the unintended consequences of government support is increased Social Security benefits paralleled the decrease in the personal savings rate. Government Deficits Fund Private Savings.	Young People More Socialistic Perceptions of Socialism 1) Early 20th Century Government Ownership of All Means of Production. A Failed Utopian, Totalitarian System 2) Post WW 2 Government controls key industries such as utilities, transportation and communications. Classic socialism dominated after World War II and still is believed by many older Americans. 3) Current Perception US has Mixed Economy Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net: Health insurance, retirement provisions, and access to less expensive higher education. This doesn't replace capitalism, it makes it more humane, egalitarian, and more protective. Scandinavian Nordic model, popularized by Democrat Sander, includes a comprehensive welfare state and multi-level collective bargaining, with a high percentage of the workforce unionized, while being based on the economic foundations of free market capitalism. Many associate socialism with totalitarian Communism. Source Socialism: a short-primer See Democratic Socialism Basics video
Learn About Who What, Where, When and Why We Borrow See Decision 2020 Government Considerations
Editorials 1) Is Median Wealth Understated?	2) Paul Krugman Agrees With Young People "On fiscal and economic responsibility: Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times.

3. Do We Spoil Our Elderly?

Election 2020 Economic Questions
1. More for the Middle Class?	3. Forgiving Student Loans?
2. Which Sacrifice?	4. A Need for Socialism?
Prelude: Republics and Democracy

A Republic is a free, equal, self-ruling government of people.

Limits on Democracy and Majority Rule
1. All are Guaranteed Individual Rights
2. Constitutional protects minority from majority.
3. Supreme Court manages evolving constitution.

A Democracy requires majority rule because people disagree.
See Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
Politics in America

Concerns: Middle Class Wellbeing, Mobility...

1. More for the Middle Class?

Analysis: American capitalism was too good, too successful.

Government spent more, took in less.

2. Which Sacrifice?

Democrats want sacrifices to lower potential climate change cost.
Trump wants sacrifices to lower potential cost of China Hegemonic Growth.

Editor: Cost and Benefits of Both are Unpredictable!

See Writing the Green New Deal?
U.S. Strategic Geopolitical Plan Update

Energy Analysis

ROI on Energy Subsidies source: energy subsidies paper		Oil/Gas Got the Most Help Koch Families Opinions of Interest
Energy Demand Realties 1. Hydrocarbons supply over 80% of world energy 2. A 2% decline in the hydrocarbon share of world energy use entailed over $2 trillion in cumulative global spending on alternatives. 3. When the 3rd world�s poor increase energy use to a third of Europe�s, energy use global demand increase by twice America�s total consumption. 4. A 100x growth in electric vehicles to 400 million by 2040 would displace 5% of global oil demand. 14. Batteries to store two-day�s of U.S. electricity demand would require 1,000 years of production by world�s biggest battery factor. Realities About Energy Economics 17. Over 30 years Investing $1 million returns: solar or wind produces 40 million and 55 million kWh shale produces 300 million kWh from natural gas 19. It costs <$0.50 to store a barrel of oil/natural gas and $200 to store the equivalent energy in batteries. 25. The shale revolution collapsed the prices of natural gas & coal, but electric rates rose 20% since 2008 because of subsidies for solar/wind. Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and author of Work in the Age of Robots by Encounter Books.		Energy Physics Realities 26. Transforming the energy economy is not like putting a few people on the moon, it's like permanently putting all of humanity on the moon. 28. If solar power could be scaled like computer-tech, a postage-stamp size solar array would power the Empire State Building. 29. If batteries scaled like digital tech, a battery the size of a book, costing three cents, could power a jetliner to Asia. 31. Physics limit for solar cells (the Shockley-Queisser limit) is a max conversion of about 33% of photons into electrons; commercial cells today are at 26%. 32. No digital-like 10x gains exist for wind tech. Physics limits for wind turbines (Betz limit) are a max capture of 60% of energy in moving air; commercial turbines achieve 45%. 35. At least 100 pounds of materials are mined, moved and processed for every pound of battery fabricated. 39. A battery-centric grid and car world means mining gigatons more of the earth to access lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, rare earths, cobalt, etc.�and using millions of tons of oil and coal both in mining and to fabricate metals and concrete. 40. China dominates global battery production with its grid 70% coal-fueled: EVs using Chinese batteries will create more carbon-dioxide than saved by replacing oil-burning engines. See Decoupling-Debunked Source: Inconvenient Energy Realities
Analysis: Is Trump's Trade War Becoming a Geopolitical War Like the Cold War, Winning Will Sacrifice Required. Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass on China Trade Deal Both agree a move to confrontational capitalism is warranted. Tom Friedman agrees on the seriousness of the issues. Parag Khanna Google�s pulling Huawei's Android license is 'intimately connected' to US-China trade war. See Trump�s Foreign Policy Is No Longer Unpredictably Editor's Notes: Because Trump's methods puts much of the foreign policy establishment out of business, bias concerning Trump and Foreign Policy is possible. So, read sources for opinions. Of course Nixon did this. 2. Trump is much like Reagan who knew little theory and few statistics. His belief that capitalism was just better than Communism, This led to conflicted Russian relations as he called them and evil empire while getting along with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction. Questions: Why did the American people know so little about Russia's economic chaos. Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear? Is Trump being buddies Putin while an attempt at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?		Trump�s Foreign Policy Requires Sacrifice Source
Trump's Military Spending Requires Continuing Sacrifice Learn About: Grand Strategy of Western Leaders China, Russia, and U.S. Geopolitical Rivals? Trump's New Geopolitical Era		Some US Military Spending Protects Europe Fewer Europeans Sacrifice
China's Economic Miracle in Context

Schooling is Better But Rural Areas Will be Slow		Borrowing Could Be a Problem!
3. Forgiving Student Loans? Millennials Aren�t Drowning in Student Debt Sixty-six percent of millennials have no student debt Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly payments of less than $200). B, Akers, Manhattan Inst		Benefits from Forgiving Student Debts Student receiving loan relief reduced their use of credit cards resulting in debt reduction by 26% They were 11% less likely to default on other accounts. Borrowers' geographical mobility increased, more changed jobs and income increased by about $3000 over a three year period. NBER Working Paper No. 25810. 6/19 Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda, Vincent Yao purchase this paper on-line from SSRN.com $5 A Personal Diary 1. I helped N.H. passes a 1970's Student Loan Program. 2. By 1989, tuition grants at Franklin Pierce College reached $1,000,000. Grants go to most desired students, most others pay full tuition using state and local loans, grants, and scholarships. A check of 990 tax forms revealed that most use this financing/marketing. 4. Consulting firms searched the applicant pool to determine which extra curricula activities will generate the most cash. 6. Loans to parents become the first choice of college councilors because they can be larger and attended colleges are not held responsible for bad debts. 7. Increased Graduate school loans were caused when year two loans could begin the summer of year one. Questions about private debt, rich students/patents, graduate student. See Economics of Investing in a College Education See Investing in College
4. A Need for Socialism? Government Economic Involvement began with Hamiltonian Economics which centering on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's presidency. Soon on politicians battled minimal state liberalism (today's conservatism) and active state liberalism (today's liberalism). Public good expansion began in Ernst in the 20th century. Today Conservatives and Progressives do battle to control federal spending. 5. Educating Voters Understanding Issues Changed Attitudes!		Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing. The French Take long vacations and retire earlier, and so they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source: Are Americans Better Off than they were a Decade or Two-Ago B. Bernanke Charles Jones and Peter Klenow proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working time. less is better life expectancy more is better and inequality less is better. Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, is only slightly ahead in wellbeing, The French take long vacations and retire earlier so they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States), presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States. A wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the tax�s yield. TCompliance and administration challenges and it might be ruled unconstitutional . It would be simpler to increase in tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and gift taxes. Learn About Election 2020 Question Possibilities Learn About Electoral Politics Conservatism vs. Progressivism Election of 1795 Begins the Battle Determining Political Power and "We the People" Socialism is the Latest Battle Learn More About 2020 Election Geopolitics Trump's Grade 8/19 Report See Decision 2020 Election Considerations
20th Century Civility Improved Adolph Ochs bought the NYT in 1898. He responded to many Yellow Journalism competitors with "All The News That's Fit To Print." Result was more congenial media for 100 years. Recently: Civility Declined, Animosity, and Polarity Increased
1. Were Supreme Court Actions the Cause? State Redistricting Plans, Schools Integration/busing/housing, Abortion Trouble began when Federal efforts went beyond stopping Jim Crow laws. 2. Has Political Control Affected Civility Political Parties Began to polarize when FDR kept control of the Democratic Party by excluded many poor southerners from New Deal. Northern Democrats began catering to blacks. LBJ sealed the change with the 1966 Civil Rights Act. South was Republican, Coasts Were Democratic. Reagan sealed the breach and political polarity intensified. How States Where a Party Has Total Control Differ

Please Share 3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute? The 1987 Communication Industry Fairness Doctrine Eliminated Radio Stations were no longer required to present contrasting views. Conservative and Liberal Polarization Proliferate Rush Limbaugh, who had popularized conservative talk radio, now had fewer restrictions. Talk Radio and Identity Politics Flourished. 4. The Telecommunications Act of 1996 allowed multi station company ownership and national network developed. As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications (now iHeartMedia) owned over 800 US radio stations and Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.^[3] 5. Citizens United v. FEC Allowed Increased Political Contributions Campaign funding increased and sponsorship diversified. which supported both intended and unintended Fake News. 6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public Mohamed Ali practically invented this 1960's genre as a boastfully Cassius Clay. Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring. Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering. which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance. Larry Bird and others soon followed. 7. Banning Earmarks in 2011 increased polarization as political cooperating to �bring home the bacon� ended. See Avoiding Effects Of Groupthink
Anxiety Caused Populism More than five years ago I began adding political economy studies to Quick Notes Economics. Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics. Then came biographies of influential presidents. Today I study the 4th populist-terrorist episode to attack the post WW 1 United States. Anxiety increased when blacks increased their economic and political power. They received a more of our economic pie. Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women. Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety. White middle class men and women were no longer the center of society. Educators had long been acting as if the normal curve did not exist. Education was the great equalizer. It solved most issues. Then the Great Recession many hardships to rural areas and the Rust Belt very hard. But, individual failure has continues. Equal educational opportunity was not enough. More Education spending was not the answer. Unbiased observers knew that nature and nurture were not equally distributed. Education Change was needed. Special blame goes to the politicians, economists and professionals. Economic success and political stability of 1980-2000 fostered technocrat control. But, too often they provided inadequate, bias Information that was not applicable to a particular issue. There failures are the real Fake News. It is more dangerous than the fake news from lies, Yellow Journalism, and Propaganda. The Great Society created a time bomb. The explosion was delayed by the Reagan Revolution followed by fifteen years of economic prosperity. Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse. Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on many middle class whites. Finally a black President�s health care plan took many back to the beginning, to Great Society animosity. Trump's election signified a new Populism. It is much like our 20th Century Populism episodes. Democracy is supposed to be troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain. Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie. Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War. By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event. Baby Boomers are leaving populist issues to Millennials. They must take control during what some consider a Fourth Turning source.

Is Socialism Being Considered by Progressives?

Socialism
is collective ownership and management
of equally distributed economic resources

Democratic Socialism of Western Europe is public ownership of key industries such as RR, transportation and communication. It also has increased concern for the disadvantaged and substantial private property.

Note: Neoliberal economics was used by England's Margaret Thatcher in 1979 to dismantled Democratic and she was followed to a lesser degree in much of Europe. In 1981 Ronald Reagan, President of the United States followed similar policies.

A Socialist Utopia was Imagined
by Socialist who believed political equality required wealth equality. Production was a common good.

The public, using a democratic process, controls the state. States should determine investment goals and resulting strategy. This is accomplished by controlling property and investment capital. Production will be for the common good and not for state officials.

In Capitalism, wealth inequality was directed by rich private investors wanting the highest capital return. They neglected the low return of social goods. Socialist believe this limited human possibilities.

Capitalism Not Imagined or Planned
It was a reality emerging with the Industrial Revolution.
It required investment and the reinvested of profit.
Its wealth creation soon dwarf that of European aristocracy.

Unlike socialism, capitalist did not contemplate the virtue of wealth or the effects of industrialism on the human condition.

Not an ideology, intellectuals did not defend it until the 20th century when Hayek and Friedman, among others, sought did so.

Capitalism explainer Adam Smith wrote �The Wealth of Nations.� It described how individual decisions, driven by self-interest, would culminate in an increased wealth of nations. In �The Theory of Moral Sentiments,� Smith argument that moral development resulted from appropriate management.

Capitalism maximized wealth, it did not limit inequality.
Investments were based on capital return expectations.
Capital would move toward maximum creation of wealth.
The process left some serving the system, excluding others.

Characteristics of Capitalism

Private property-individuals own resources
Freedom of enterprise-own a business
Freedom of economic choice-work/not work, spend/not spend ...
Role of self-interest
Competitive Market System
Laissez-Faire Government let markets operate freely
Questionable Degree of Government Involvement a concern

Socialism Reallocates Capital

Capitalists creates wealth for a few
and allows much suffering.

Socialism places confidence in public control

Source Basic Characteristics of Capitalism

Abolishing Greed and State Minimization fantasies aside, the two systems have more or less merged.

Both Systems Have Unhappy Voters

Why?

A 2020 Watershed Election?

See

How Republicans Accidentally Caused
The Rise Of Socialism 8 min video from

Conservatism vs. Progressivism

Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Federal Government Responsibilities

Quarrel between a Federalist and a Republican in the House of Representatives Foreign influence on Domestic Politics
Click to enlarge cartoon.

See Decision 2020 Socialism

21st Century Terror

Homegrown European Terror Decreased

Islamic Terror Hitting Western Europe

Many Causes of U.S. Terror

Motives Varied

1984 San Ysidro Lone
government/humanity

1986 Edmond post office
work related

1991 Luby's shooting
Hispanics, Gay, Women issues

1999 Columbine HS
no obvious motive

2007 Blacksburg
mental/physical issues

2007 Binghamton NY
self image/career issues
2009 Fort Hood
career issues

2012 Sandy Hook
obsession with mass murders

2015 San Bernardino
inspired by Islamic terrorists

2016 Orlando Nightclub
many unrelated issues

Sources wished

\homegrown-terrorists -were-almost-all-right-wing

9/11/01 Began an Era of Fear
Suddenly Our Invulnerable Nation Felt Dramatically Unsafe

Sources economic wellbeing David Brooks

Learn More About Terror

Fake News

Unintended
When Professionals Provide Inadequate,
Bias Information. It is Worse Than

Intended
A Modern Name for
Yellow Journalism and Propaganda,
provided Fodder for
Media, Politicians Think-tanks.

Unbiased News

Look for a date, author, data source,
logical facts, internet domain, writing style...

Fake News Warning # 1 Claiming Trumpisms are Lies

12. The Bottom Line
Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

A. WW 1 Began Middle Class Wealth Accumulation in England

Source author has a different interpretation of data.

U.S. Wealth Accumulation
Began Much Earlier

Log Scale link

B. Great Recession Temporally Slowed Growth

one-picture economics

US Growth Continues to Continue

C. Will Labor's Share Return to Normal?

Editor's Note: Most politicians want
more G for infrastructure.
Some want more G for education.
Some want more G for entitlements.
Some want more G for the safety net.
Some want more G for defense.
All politicians are buying votes.
Until economic growth picks up, all sectors will increase debt.

Still Populism Developed as

Politicians, the Media,
and Professionals Can/Have Made
Much Money, Power and Respect
by Influencing/Creating Negativity!
See Fake News Please Share!

Editor's Note:
Knowing how the US poorly measures economic reality,
I wants someone to determine exactly how well our poor live now,
have lived in the recent past, and will live in the Future.

Poor Education Test Scores
an Over-Hyped Problem

Long Term Test Results
Slightly Up as Tests Get Harder
See complete data for
age 9, age 13, and age 17.

Trend in NAEP reading average scores

U.S. STEM Education Compares Well Internationally 2007 vs. 2015< By Rick Hess 5/20/19

Source: Measuring Innovation in Education 2019.
Note: All of the following results were calculated using TIMSS data.
1. How frequently do 4th grade students use computers when learning math?
        U.S. rose    18 - 79 percent     OCED 42 - 51 percent

2. Do 8th grade students do math homework at least twice a week?
        US fell 86 - 75 percent     OECD 56 - No Change

3. Do teachers of 4th grade science demonstrate experiments with half their lessons?
        US rose 16 - 36 percent     OECD 13 - 35 percent

4. Do 4th grade students actually perform science experiments or investigations?
       US rose 45 - 53 percent     OCED 33- to 46 percent

5. Are Incentives used to recruit and retain STEM 8th math teachers?
        US 7 to 6 percent     OECD 10 to 8 percent

Source: How US STEM practices compare internationally

Editor's Thoughts:
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a good thing or not.
2. US policies and practices don't look all that different.
3. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously distinctive.
4. Almost all students lose interest in math and science.
    Computers and experiments may delay this decision,
     but they also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

    Homework may teach some to be more responsible,
    but again it also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

    More money for teachers is usually good but
    one of the best teachers I have observed since 1950
    was, by almost all measures, a poor teacher.

    Maximize a students reading ability,
    teach a little practical math,

Consider the Advice from Historical and Current Leaders

Ability and Major Determines Earnings
Top AA Earners Earn More Than Bottom Half of Bachelor's Graduates
More Data Career Guidance      Lifetime Earnings

Pay
%

Associate's
Starting Pay

Bachelor's
Starting Pay

   Job Type
Bachelor's Premium With 10 Years Experience

10^th

$21,000
$25,400
Admin.Assist.
10% 4%

25^th

$26,700
$32,900
Dental Hygienist
9% 5%

50^th

$35,100
$43,200
Registered Nurse
4% 6%

75^th

$46,700

$56,900

Construction Manager
17% 19%

90^th

$61,600

$73,800

Inside Sales Rep.
15% 24%

Source: Education Libraries

	Postscript: We Used Debt to Pay for 1. Revolutionary War 2. The Civil War 3. WW 1 4. Great Depression Poverty 5. WW 2 6. War on Poverty 7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse
	Today We Spend It On All Voters Spending Creates Happy Voters Who Vote for Incumbents Historically, the U.S. Has Succeeded Using Inflation and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain. People loved dot-coms until they didn�t. They loved credit default swaps until they blew up. Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies. �When the music stops for expanding liquidity, things will be complicated." Chuck Prince on debt-fueled private equity deals before the economy collapsed.

	Federal Government Prints Money, Will Pay Other US Governments May Have to Cut

	In the Future Infrastructure May Battle Entitlements
	The years 1968, 1969, and 1970 had many noticeable events: early baby boomers moved into their 20�s; assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy; the women�s movement; the draft lottery, the bombing of Cambodia, unrest on college campuses. Woodstock, Stonewall... Did any of these increase the impatience of the country in a permanent way? There are likely stories that could be woven, undoubtedly more than one, but it is unclear whether anything could be tested. The question is probably too big, but the fact is interesting. Source See World Getting Better video Child Labor Photos Longer-Term Economic Questions The Bottom Bottom Line

Learn About: Work Education Health Safety Poverty Civility Taxes Debt Government
Populism Socialism Geopolitics Terror Fake News The Bottom Line 6/19/19 Please Share! Meet our editor


Productivity Gains > Wage Gains See Understanding US Productivity Slowdown
Profit Gains > Wages/Salaries Gains But US Wages Increased Consistently!
Causes Are Numerous mckinsey.com/ Editor's Nope: Pay eligibility will vary depending on selected price index. Most people select the index that helps their point of view.

BLS Data

Source: one picture economic

Difference Could Get Even Larger

See Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis and Unchecked Power

American Enterprise Institute

Retiree Data:

U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015

See Reshoring Initiative report

How Restricting Skilled Immigration Could Spur Offshoring

Healthy Eating Habits
Related Health Sites
Health Careers Nursing Healthy Lifestyle Healthy Skin Healthy Dieting
Healthcare Learning Materials Health in America Analysis Health Literacy

Crime is Down


Source Few Believe It! Source
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Poverty Demographics
Official Poverty Rate Does Not Measure People "Living" in Poverty Poorer States Get Most Federal Help Is Poverty a Condition or a Position? Growing up in a rural 1950's Massachusetts Observations Conditions Elderly lived with their children, few had health insurance or much income. Poor Families lived in older house at the end of a dirt road. Poor Children were skinny, often dirty, didn't finish HS, pooped around and then went into military, found a trade or pumped gas. Almost no one had air conditioning. Position Almost all benefited economically after WW 2 but those in the bottom quintile were economically less well-off. Retired in rural 2003 Central Florida Observations Conditions Elderly live on their own with Medicare and improved SS. Poor families lived in older lowland house or trailers. Poor Children, obesity a problem, most finish HS, try college, go into one of many services, industry and live at home. Position Poverty Rate Stuck, which ignores the safety net, is stuck at 15%. Liberals misuse poverty data and Conservatives despise safety net. Middle Class Wealth Accumulation Began a Century Ago in England Some Feel the Very Very Rich Get Too Much Newly Created Wealth BUT Wealth of Lower Income Cohorts should Includes Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and Help from Friends and Family. The Working Poor

Few Real Poor Work

Source

Working Means Fewer Benefits

States Determine When Income is Too High to Receive a Benefit
Family Size	100%	133%	138%	250%
1	$12,140	$16,146	$16,753	$30,350	$48,560
2	$16,460	$21,892	$22,715	$41,150	$65,840
3	$20,780	$27,637	$28,676	$51,950	$83,120
4	$25,100	$33,383	$34,638	$62,750	$100,400
5	$29,420	$39,129	$40,600	$73,550	$117,680
6	$33,470	$44,515	$46,189	$84,350	$133,880
7	$38,070	$50,633	$52,537	$95,150	$152,280
8	$42,380	$56,365	$58,484	$105,950	$169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320 for each additional person. Note: Eligibility for premium tax credits in coverage year 2019 is based on poverty guidelines for 2018. FPL = federal poverty line.

See Little Help from 2nd Worker

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3. Money Did Not Increase Testing Results
Manhattan Institute

4. One Answer Individualized Curriculums where Local Community Prioritize Goals

Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.

There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to provide worker training. To some extent this is already happening -- in 2017, according to one report, U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior). Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the publicly funded education system to do it for them.

Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely regarded as having been successful in Germany, and with evidence suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education, these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be useful for white-collar jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor has been helping set up apprenticeships.

Learn More About Testing

5. Testing Headlines Misinform

2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International Students Assessment

See On the World Stage
U.S. Students Fall Behind
Massachusetts PISA Scores
are about the same as Singapore.

Data on test taker percentages
not provided.
Prejudice for and against
makes all data Suspect

Headlines Chase Money- Not Truth

The Nation's Report Card Unchanged

Mathematics

A line graph shows that the national average mathematics score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 2013, but was not significantly different compared to 2005, the first year of the current trend line based on a new framework.

Reading

A line graph shows that the national average reading score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 1992, the initial reading assessment year, but was not significantly different compared to 2013.

Math Tests Unchanged Since 1971

US Mathematics & Reading at Grade 12

Reasons Test Score Differ

The Difference: Report Card Tests are Constant
PISA Changes Periodically

See Long and Short-Term Testing.

Testing is Big Business

Standardized Test Sales, 1955�1997

Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a three-part test
has made a lot of money for a lot of people.
Business Week 2005 reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last modified."

New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies..
The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.

Product Line Expanded
" More than 25 percent of public high school seniors graduating last May
took at least one AP test." 2/15/19

Four companies that dominate the business
of making/scoring standardized tests.
"As of 2011, Gaston Caperton, the president of the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT,
was paid $1.3 million.
Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.

The National Board on Educational Testing and Public Policy at Boston College
reported that the value of the standardized testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million." huffingtonpost.com

Standardized test exists to create a better life for young people.
But these tests hurt young people economically and emotionally.

Epilogue: Education should center on Howard Gardner's
equally valued normally distributed Multiple Intelligences,
concentrating on a student's Special Intelligence
while not harming self actualization.

See Decision 2020 Education Considerations

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More Data on Taxes

Prelude : Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes
C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!
E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?

Prelude: Economic Tax Concerns

1. Ayn Rand's Predicted a Tipping Point
Which Begins a Slow Long-Term Growth Decline.

Creative Destruction Fuels Our Economic Prosperity Source
Average of S&P 500 Index ten-year was 33 years, by 1990 it was 20 years.
Since 1955, only 52 companies still have ten-year top 500 membership.

2. Has Society Reacted to High CEO Pay

3. Do We Over Accommodate Business

4. We Lead the West in Productivity

Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle. It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe adversaries, seldom enemies.

5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive Affected? Post WW2 Entrepreneurs Pay Much Taxes? When and How Affected?

A. Politics is in Control

IRS Demanding Billions Less From the Wealthy

In 2009, the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel ultra-wealthy ax dodges.

A battle had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began slashing the agency�s budget.

High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump�s IRS commissioner, warned that the squad was conducting �the audits from hell.�

In 2012 the wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes and penalties.
t after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.

Having to battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.

summarized from propublica.org

Congress Has Given Many a Tax Break

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

Corporations Pay Less So Owners Get More

Example

Dodging Taxes is Easier

See Millionaires and Corporate Giants Escaped IRS Audits in FY 2018

Tax Dodge Lets Investors Save Big

"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn�t an exiting investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra withdrawals
by rapidly pumping assets in and out.

C. Who Cheats and How
The Who

Source: How big is the problem of tax evasion?

The How

Unbiased Third Party Information Provided Income Type
Tax Liabilities Misreported %

Little or none Farm income 71%
�

Nonfarm proprietor income 64
�

Rents and royalties 62
�

Other income 49
�

Form 4797 income 42
�

Some Capital gains 27
�

Partnership, S-corp, etc. 16
�

Substantial Taxable Social Security benefits 19
�

State income tax refunds 13
�

Dividend income 7
�

Unemployment compensation 6
�

Pensions and annuities 4
�

Interest income 3
�

Wages, salaries, tips 1
�

Specifics Techniques

source

The Very Rich

Top 400 families have more wealth than
bottom 60 percent of households,
while the top 0.1 percent own same as bottom 80 percent.
Source

D. Tax Where the Money Is!

Payroll is Where the Money Is

An 8% payroll tax increase affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.

The Math Problem That Could Sink the Bernie/AOC Agenda
See The First-Ever Social Security Check?

A women named Fuller paid a total of $24.75 of payroll taxes for three years.
In the 35 years after her retirement, she received $22,888.92 in benefits.

Do low income retirees with dependents
appreciates what a good investment t return they may receive from social security?

People Want More Taken from the Rich

See Taxation Philosophies
Super Rich Do Have Lots More Money

Editorials

Do the rich pay lower taxes than the poor?

The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You � David Leonhardt, New York Ti
What the NYT Didn�t Tell You � Robert Verbruggen, National Review

Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent
" Our preliminary estimate is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
and roughly $800 billion in its first decade. source EPI

First Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed 70 percent marginal income tax rate
on $10 million and over to finance her Green New Deal
affects 16,000 people with income of $245 billion.
It would raise $164-382 billion over ten years.
Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000 households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the millionaires." Source

Another Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50 million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade. This is an estate tax.

A Trump proposal requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used to qualify for means-tested federal programs.

President Barack Obama�s (failed) 2013 proposal to apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people were provided. Source: Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of the SS fund tried to do this.

See Taxes, Socialism, And Class War
Are Billionaires Fat Cats or Deserving Entrepreneurs? but
Billionaires take more than they make.
Center for Popular Economics source one-picture economics

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

Source

Companies Use Bonus in Place of More Permanente Raises

Just one more reason to be careful when using
economic data for political economy analysis. Source
Middle Households Helped Least

Would Rich Pay?

Editor's Note: Historically Very rich pay the very educated to avoid taxes.

Would Boxers Box, Musicians Play, Actors Act?

�top

Would Hedge Managers Hedge Like They Did Last Decade?

Would a Wealth Tax Slow Economic Growth?

Most of this Wealth Created With Government t Sponsored Technology.

We Spent Billions to Keep Them Hedging Beginning in 2007

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Who We Owe, Why We Borrow
Meet Our Creditors
1. US Citizens and US Government Owns Most of tithe Debt

2. Is Foreigners US Debt Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, and Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.

When We Borrowed

1. Borrowing Began With the Revolution

2. Mostly it was War

3. Human Needs Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.

4. Recessions Caused Deficits as Revenue Drops
Nominal Growth Historically Cured Deficit

Obama continued the Bush policy of fighting the Great Recession with debt
and by 12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's austerity policies.

Who Paid the Federal Debt

1. Total Stays the Same

End of
Fiscal Year US Gross Debt
in Nominal USD billions US Gross Debt as % of GDP Question Answer

1940 43.0 52.4 No One

1950 257.4 94.1

1960 290.2 56.1

1970 389.2 37.6

1980 930.2 33.3 No One

1990 3,233 55.9

2000 5,674 58 TBD

2005 7,933 64.6

2007 9,008 65.5

2008 10,699.8 74.6 (EST)

2009 11,046.2 TBD

United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2. Who Finances Deficit Rollovers?

3. Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed

Entitlements Pose a Problem

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems
Concerns

Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly All benefit are the same, high income earners pay most Required additional health care cost difficult for many
Longer life especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases cost. Free cases poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles currently not acceptable to electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See Table 1 and Table 3 Deficit concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic success.. Solution just time or later retirement but politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should add political pressure.

Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations Table 2 Tax payers don't appreciate
their benefit (entitlements?) Solution of decreasing them by a third is unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.

When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least possible pain.

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Measured Poverty Has Changes Little See Why Poverty is Controversial? BUT After the Safety Net Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years f
	This chart "...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5 to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0 percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even more." Examples of noncash benefits include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid, and Medicare. See Source Editors Comments are in red.
	Work is Not Encouraged as Real Minimum Wage Falls Unintended Consequence of Safety Net Increases?
	Government Support Increased Prices Return to Index Please Share!
	Skilled Medical/Profession Workers Were the Big Winner

Learn About

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Conservatism vs. Progressivism
as see through the eyes of George Will

"We hold these truths to be self-evident,
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. �
That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..."

American Conservatism:
Preserve the Founders Thinking as custodians of the classical liberal tradition.

Rights are natural. They preexist acts of human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's main purpose is to "secure these rights."

Human nature is permanent and statesmanship is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord with the nature of humans.

Progressivism: Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the understanding and directing of shaping forces.

Today's Conflict:
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives want directing of society's shaping forces.

Source: Conservative Sensibility

Classical Liberalism : the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.

New Deal Progressivism of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights.

Determining the final arbiter is always contested.
Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court

Managerial Progressives of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government operations from above and end the business cycles.

Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Conservatives Want a Republic Constitution

First Comes Rights, Then Comes Government

"We the People" Viewed as Individuals
where majority can lose if Judicial Review
determines an action impedes a fundamental right.

Progressives Want a Democratic Constitution

First Comes Governments then Comes Rights

We the People Viewed as One Group
where majority rules and Judicial Review
can not impede majority desires.

The Constitution was Designed to put checks and Balances on Majority Rule and as time as passed, the fear of anarchy from majority rule as lessened.

Federal Government Responsibilities
A Brief US Political History	Defining Federal Problem	Problem Disposition
From the Founding to Civil War	Legitimacy in Relations to States	Superior
Civil War to New Deal	Power Limits to Federal Operations	None
New Deal to Recently	Meet Needs of all Constituencies	Deficits Do Not Matter
Today	Making Appropriate Collective Long term Choices	Voters Not Interested in Delayed Gratification
In response to Hamilton's desire for national direction of economic development, Madison foresaw an Administrative state which would	damage Federalism by claiming responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and	the resulting increase in new responsibilities would then take its limit the affect of separation of powers moving power from legislative branch to the executive department.
Thoughts from James .Q. Wilson, American academic, political scientist, and an authority on public administration as reported by George Will in The Conservative Sensibility

The Judicial Supervision Difficulties of Democracy
Counter Majoritarian Difficulty

In U.S. Federalism, Governing is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court

Declaration of Independence

Goal: Secure Unalienable Rights

Affirmed Natural Right of the Individuals

Implies Democracy

Limits to Majority Rule

United States Constitution

Purpose: Define Constructed Rights of the Community

to Make Laws the Majority Deems Necessary and Proper.

Created Tension

Majority Rule is Limited and Moderated
by the Constitution

Joining a community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court must protect the natural rights of liberty.

The Legislature writes the laws, the Executive administers laws
and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.

Election 2020 Question Possibilities

Basic Income Information

More Civility Data

A. Engagement with �Fake News� on Facebook is Declining
The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between 1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from Facebook but not for twitter.

B. Politically �teams� will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party lines."

"This happened in the 1850s: We know what happened..."
"Things...could get plenty bad..." with a "...serious recession or the stock market..." crash. "

and ... as a nation we are no longer capable of making preparations for such events."

James Pierson "Political Polarization: The Rise and Decline of America's Postwar Political Order"

Editors Note: With democracy, very difficult to sacrifice before the pain. Think WW1 WW2 Gilded Age Greed

C. U.S. Supreme Court Job Approval Rating Ties Record Low It's Political D. Individual Behavior Norms Are Expanding
Legality of Behavior Norms Also Up
Attitude Toward Abortion Unchanged
Why the Difference? It's About Relegion!

It's About Politics

There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion,
with Democrats much more likely than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.

This gap is even larger between liberal Democrats
and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP (27%)

It's enhanced by

Roe v. Wade
Poisoned Our Politics

Michael Barone New York Post

Today�s �partisan chaos� is a direct result of Roe v. Wade,
said Michael Barone. The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh�s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so heated if
people on both sides didn�t think Roe might be at stake.

In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation�s population
had already liberalized their abortion laws,
and America would have had different laws in different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices delivered �an unusually sweeping�
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all circumstances�
and the country�s defining wedge issue.

While public opinion on cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, �opinion on abortion has
scarcely budged.�

It�s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally moral issue
about �the way people live their lives�: Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their �personal autonomy�
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly religious,
believe abortion amounts to �extinguishing human lives.�

Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed it
because neither side believes it can afford any compromise.
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.

October 5, 2018 THE WEEK

2020 Election Info: U.S. and China Are Geopolitical Political Rivals?

U.S. Has a Strong Geopolitical Position
Power and Global Disorder 22 min video 11/8/18 Peter Zeihan

1. Largest strip of high-quality arable land in the world

2. Most Navigable Waterways in the world

3. Control best parts of a continent with moats on either side

4. If US trading system breaks down, US suffers the least!

5. Trade subsidizes the Global system so NAFTA must work.

6. US is delusional when thinking China is the next super power.
She has only managed to hold together for 300 years.

Water, Energy, Soil and Food--and a Shared National Purpose Matter

Requirements for Success

U.S very good Geography that is productive and well protected.

Economically Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable demographic. The others are "terminal countries."

Happening faster because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations with people.
Near the end he new how important factors were interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.

But Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is following a neoconservative policy.

US has forced an acceleration of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates.
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain rapid growth.
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China will fall apart.

Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China is Japans concern.
Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis.
Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one except Russia, is a nuclear concern.
Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South Korean/Japanese worry.

Editor's Question: Is US as protector a requirement for US business and finance to control the world?
Source: Factors Indicating a New International Order
See Videos Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018
The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan
U.S.-China Relations in 2019 video Kevin Rudd

Preface

U.S. Government Not Designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise.
b. Many want limited government.
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems.

Recent Exception After WW 2
a. The 1946 Long Telegram described a very aggressive Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year multi-administration policy of containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully

Containment Success
a. Fragility of Soviet economy and society caused implosion from within.
b. China is very different.

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

US Strategic Plan

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and one side backs down.

b. Competition is more adversarial but no US guidelines given.

c. Rules to be determined

Washington's Latest Attitude Toward China Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult.

b. McCarthyism in U.S. and Australia is not good Foreign Policy.

Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign challenges to the long-term survival of the Communist Party.

b. Assistant Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a strong-man and long-time party member, move toward markets rankling some politburo bureau members.

Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes

b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends

c) Set a new direction

Recent Changes

a) Communist Party and Ideology was enhanced
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
b) Ideological Confidence has increased.

c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

d) China to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform

2020 Election Info: Trump's Grade Report

Part One

Update 8/21/19

Keeping Promises is why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.

Love him or hate him, Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality�
or at least making the case that he tried:

Successes

Conservative Supreme Court justice? double-check.
Tax cuts? Check, weighted toward corporations rather than the middle class.
Gut regulations Check.
Crack down check, despite his failure to build a wall.
Tariffs on China? Check.
Declaring China a currency manipulator? Check.
Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement? Check.
Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal? Check.
Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pacific Rim trade deal? Check.
Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. Pending congressional approval.

Failed Promises

He promised in a 2016 interview, wipe out the national debt in eight years.
He promised great wall," and inflates the mileage mixing replacements with new construction.
He promised Mexico would pay, failed.
He promised repeal Affordable Care Act and give amazing health care to everyone. Failed
He promised to reverse trade deficits. U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
Trump, pushed to end Afghanistan and with draw all U.S. troops failed
fallen short:
infrastructure and ending the Opioid crisis.
drain the swam

axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-d97f5ef2-

2. Trump's New Geopolitical Era?

1. Three Main Forces Blowing Up Global Politics 2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs 4. Cultural Wars Source Geopolitics

1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

by Steve LeVine Summary from editor Walter Antoniotti antonw@ix.netcom.co
Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to Europe/Western Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions
contributed to these disruptions and caused many to lash out in a tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended
1. Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
2 Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west
Disruptions Could Last Years Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.
Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2. Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
3. AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.
Source

A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions. Source

3. Foreign Affairs

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Older Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti
F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source
U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes
A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision
B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
according to Marxian dialectic analysis.
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise.
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua franca is important
C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step
E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts

4. Cultural Wars

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3) threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neither Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.
�the people� are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
�the people� is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics..
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy
A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source: The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

Causes
1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance

Understanding Right and Left Populism
Right populism defines "the people" as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism
2) refugees
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...
Left populism defines �the people� as social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other
Right populism defines the enemy in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state
Left populism defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and workforce casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.

The Bottom Bottom Line

More Terror Information

German recorded 1,800 anti-Semitic crimes in 2018, a 20 percent annual increase. Most were perpetrated by right-wing groups.

US Targets Varied

Racist Trend
"White supremacy groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), neo-Nazis such as the National Alliance, and skinhead groups such as the Hammerskin Nation."

Anti-Federalist Trend
The anti-federalist �militia� or �patriot� movement) in the early to mid-1990s with new groups in Montana and Michigan. Anti-government sentiments existed from the birth of the nation were anti-taxation, gun rights, and a �survivalist� lifestyle. The �farm crises� of the 1980s, and rapid cultural, technological and normative changes, gun control and environmental legislation caused a fairly ideologically cohesive movement, as well as its rapid growth.²

Fundamentalist Trend
Mainly Christian identity groups such as the Aryan Nations, merges religious fundamentalism with traditional white supremacy and racist tendencies. It promotes ideas of nativism, exclusionism, and racial superiority via a unique interpretation of religious texts that focus on division of humanity according to primordial attributes.

The Iceberg Model and American Far Right Violence
In the early 1980s, the Israeli political scientist Ehud Sprinzak published a paper on the irredentist Israeli religion-political movement Gush Emunim (The Bloc of the Faithful) entitled �The Iceberg Model of Political Extremism.�⁶

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Long Term Test Results Slightly Up as Tests Get Harder See complete data for age 9, age 13, and age 17.

Long Term Test Results
Slightly Up as Tests Get Harder
See complete data for
age 9, age 13, and age 17.