What You Should Know About

Political Issues

US Political Economy

Personal Advancement

2024 Election Information

Political  Issues

Criminal Justice

Current Events







Immigration History

Immigration Issues








Wage Stagnation

US Political Economy

Growing a Constitution

Constitutional History of United States

Political Economy Basics

Economic Systems

A Need for Socialism?

Conservatism vs. Progressivism

America Totalitarianism

Slowed Globalization

Current  Issues

Economic Questions

Failed Foreign Policy

Exorbitant Dollar Privilege\

Unanswered 2020 Questions


Retrospection Bias

Confirmation Bias



 Part I
1. Bad-Good-Very Good
2. Cause: The Ups, Downs of Capitalism
US Capitalism Adjusted Well-Again

4. Creative Destruction Hurt American Workers

Part 2
5. Unemployment Crisis
6. The Future of Work
7. What Will Happen?

8.  If Only It Were So Simple

Epilog  John Mueller Concerning Retrospection Bias



History of Class Struggle


The Bad: Workers Earn a Smaller Share
Many Blame Capitalism?

What You Should Know About Wages


Increase the Minimum Wage
Make all Gross Income Subject to Payroll Taxes
Lower Supply of Low Wage Job Seeker

The Good: 
70 Years of Continuing Wage Growth

"Stability and achievements being cumulative
means young people of today will enjoy both past progress
 and their own contributions.
Source: US Economic Wellbeing

The Very Good
Many People are Moving Up the Income Ladder



The But!

Economists are rethinking the numbers on inequality.




2. The Cause:
The Ups, Downs and Adjustments
of Capitalism

Germany and Japan Slowly Took Their Fair Share of Growth.
Then China and Great Recession Took More.
CV-19? Source


Financial and Economic Crisis Hurt Workers


The COVID Job Downturn Could Be Last

Post WW 2 World Economic Normality


3. 21st Century US Capitalism
 Adjusted Well-Again

US Auto Industry Was First to Adjust!


US Manufacturing Wages Became More Competitive

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta


Labor Markets Finally Tighter,
Wages Increased, Then CV-19 Hit


Reason is Weak Unions


1950's, 60's and 70's Turmoil Returned
America to her Conservative Roots.


Both Political Parties Contributed

As Always,
American Business Adjusted.

History of Outsourcing
It Maintain then Increase Profit.

Covid Caused Creative Destruction

Middle-Skill Jobs Suffered

see Who Gets the Money?

B. How Workers Affected by Creative Destruction


US Workers Continue to Take a Hit

US Workers Get Smaller Share

More Change Causes Bigger Adjustment



D. Creative Destruction at Work

Editor's Nope: A 2016 proposal would have been moor generous but it was blocked
by a Texas Federal Court. Trump's rule went to affect on 1/1/20.

Pay eligibility will vary depending on selected price index.
Most people select the index that helps their point of view.

Trump Continues Creative Destruction Policies

1. Trump attacked worker wages using federal agencies

Department of Labor-DOL
DOL prevented Roughly 8.2 million workers from receiving overtime pay with
a weaker 9/19 overtime rule.

Trump's DOL, on in 1/20, finalized a new joint-employer standard under the  Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA). This narrowed the set of circumstances whereby a firm could be liable as a joint employer under FLSA. It reversed a DOL ruling under Obama. On 9/8/20 the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York s truck down as arbitrary, most of the “joint employer” rule. Workers saved more than $1 billion annually.

DOL’s proposed “tip stealing” rule which would allow employers to pocket the tips of their minimum wage employees. It was stopped by Congress when they amending the Fair Labor Standards Act. Worker annual gain was $5.8 billion.

National Labor Relations Board-NLRB
1. Narrowed
joint-employer standards

2. Obstructed worker rights to fair union elections

3. Hindering worker organization efforts during non-work hours

4. Allowed for he misclassification of workers.

Trump's executive orders for federal order-box; outline: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit;
font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0px none; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 0px"> 1. Limited use of official time for collective bargaining activities

2. Weakened due process protections for federal workers subjected to discipline.


2. Trump attempted to take away some workers’ health care

Affordable Care Act-ACL
Attempted to repeal the Affordable Care Act-ACA.
Asked the Supreme Court to rule the ACA unconstitutional.
Weakened the ACA as part the 2017 tax cut for corporations.
Workers losing Employer Sponsored Insurance are not helped into ACA insurance.
Losing ACA would hurt workers with Employer Sponsored Insurance
1. Large firms with no insurance would not be penalized.
2. Benefit caps for essential health services would return.
3. Individual out-of-pocket spending caps would return.
4. Child coverage until the age of 26 would slowly disappear.
5. Maternity coverage and free preventative care mandates would slowly disappear.
6. Waiting periods limits would slowly be extended

3 Occupational Safety and Health Administration-OSHA
   refused to issue

1. Emergency Temporary Standard to protect workers during the pandemic
2. OSHA failed to enforce the Occupational Safety and Health Act despite nearly 10,000 CV-19 complaints.
3. Only 
issued a handful of citations for failure to protect workers

4. Centers for Disease Control-CDC guidelines allowed essential workers to continue working with asymptomatic provided employer implements additional precautions.

Department of Labor (DOL) excluded millions of workers from paid CV leave provisions including 9 million health care workers and 4.4 million first responders, before revising the rule after a federal judge invalidated parts of the original rule in August. Further, at first Trump vehemently opposed the extension of the $600 increase of unemployment insurance benefits and additional aid to state and local governments.


E. Current Problems


Editor: Some Feel Globalization Has Peaked, Supply Chains will Consolidate, and Mfgt Will Move Back Quickly.
An Inactive World Leaders

See Reshoring Initiative report

How Restricting Skilled Immigration Could Spur Offshoring

Domestic Migration Is Driving Population Growth In U.S. Cities St Louis Fed
Looking at the Urban-Rural Divide in Economic Growth
Why Is St. Louis Growing More Slowly Than Expected?


Current Problem

Source: "Why Aren't More Men Working? " New York Times, 6/17/18

Current Problem
Is Working Fewer Hours Voluntary or
 Caused by Local Outsourcing?

Current Problem
Lawrence Summers on few good jobs

" The core problem is that there aren't enough jobs.
 If you help some people, you could help them get the jobs,
 but then someone else won't get the jobs. "

"...the idea that you can just have better training
 and then there are all these jobs,
all these places where there are shortages and
we just need the trained people is fundamentally an evasion."

Listen to On Manufacturing Effort and Inequality audio

Current Problem
Many Jobs Have Low Wages


5. Unemployment Crisis



FEDS Help During Tough Times

FEDS Step in Big Time


Protect Workers from Federal and State Non-Compete Law

Encourage Union Membership


6. The Future of Work


Lawrence Summers 2015

Listen to On Manufacturing Effort and Inequality audio

Source The Future of Work     
Jobs Leave With or Without Outsourcing



Rate of Job Loss Will Increase

Job Recoveries are Longer and slower

Low Paying Jobs Coming Back Very Slowly


Many Can Do Low Paying Decreasing Jobs
Few Can Do High Pay Increasing Jobs
More Money for Education and Training
Has Not Solved This Problem!


Large firms move high-skill jobs out of states with high personal taxes,
according to an analysis of big firms’ job postings, by 
J. Gao of Indiana U

At large firms, 20% to 50% of the total workforce often is outsourced,
according to staffing executives. 
Bank of America Corp., Verizon Communications Inc.,
Procter & Gamble Co. and FedEx Corp. have thousands of contractors each.

At large employers, it is now common for building maintenance, security, kitchen,
laundry and custodial staff not to work directly for the company they report to.

Now the Trump administration has adopted a four-factor test
to assess whether an indirect employer is a joint employer that would bear
legal responsibility for violations of minimum-wage and overtime regulations.
This is a narrower standard for determining joint-employer status than the
practice that 
existed under the administration of President Barack Obama.
It expanded the responsibilities of indirect employers in January 2016.
The International Franchise Association (the largest organization representing
franchises worldwide) 
argues that the broader criteria previously in place
cost U.S. franchisees between 
$17 and $33 billion per year.  

7.  What Will Happen


Source  See Debunking the ‘Productivity-Pay Gap




8. If Only It Were So Simple

Executive Summary

1. There are few good paying jobs.

2. Selection process applies to all American workers.

3. Tighter Hiring standards eliminates too many.

4. Standards include age, education, health, credit, social status, religion, culture, race, ethnicity, …

5. Standards are discrimination and arbitrary, but there has to be a way of deciding.

6.  Whole working class suffers and that those at the bottom suffers most.

7. Networking, the most successful job strategy, is available to everyone.

" All America has been, more than anytime since the Great Depression,
subjected to a selection process that applies to all American workers.
As there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs, the standards for hiring keep getting tighter.
What standards you ask?
Age, education, health, credit, social status, religion, culture, race, ethnicity, …
Yes, all are discrimination, all are arbitrary;
but as there are fewer and fewer good paying jobs there has to be a way of deciding.
Universities do it, always have; there’s always been a selection process.
Even during the Great Depression , if you knew the right someone,
you could get a good job; meritocracy be damned.
It is not at all as simple as ‘whitey’ has to give ‘us’ some of what their getting;
it’s more that the whole working class is suffering and that those at the bottom suffer most.
And, this will continue unless major changes are made to the economic model."

Source: If Only It Were So Simple

9. John Mueller's 1995 statement concerning Retrospection Bias.
“... no matter how much better the present gets,
 the past gets better faster..."

Golden ages "...do happen,
but we are never actually in them:
they are always back there somewhere.”

See Decision 2020 Options to Improve JOBS

US Education


1. Primary Education Worked For Many 
a. But Some Need a New Approach
b. A Plan for Change
2. Federal Involvement Analysis

The Economics of College Investing

4. Is College for Everyone?
5. College Investing Decisions
6. Effects of College Marketing?

7. Do Top Universities Pay?

Epilogue Reflections of a Life-Long Teacher


Who are the nation’s 4 million teachers? - USAFacts




Editor's Thoughts on
Increasing Academics
1. We just don't know if more math homework and experiments are a good thing or not.
  2. High-performing STEM countries aren't doing anything that's obviously distinctive.
  3. Almost all students lose interest in math and science.
    Computers and experiments may increase short term interest,
but they also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

Generative AI, like computers, will increase education variance.

Homework may teach some to be more responsible,
but again it also increase learning for a very few by a very lot.

More money for teachers is usually good, but
one of the best teachers I have observed since 1950
was, by almost all measures, a poor teacher.

Maximize all students reading ability.
    Teach a little practical math to everyone
    Get out of the way.

Editor's Thoughts on U.S. STEM Education

U.S. STEM Education Compares Well Internationally 2007 vs. 2015   By 5/20/19
Measuring Innovation in Education 2019.
Note: All of the following results were calculated using TIMSS data.

4th grade students used of computers when learning math? 
U.S. rose    18 - 79%     OCED  42 - 51%o

science teachers show experiments half their lessons?  
US rose 16 - 36 percent     OECD 13 - 35%

students perform science experiments or investigations?
US rose 45 - 53%     OCED 33 - 46%

8th grade students do math homework 2+ times  a week?
US fell 86 - 75%   OECD 56 - No Change

Incentives to recruit/retain STEM 8th math teachers?
US 7 - 6%     OECD 10 - 8%

Source: How US STEM practices compare internationally


a. But Some Need a Radically New Approach

Many Who Stopped Looking for Work
 Likely Didn't Finish HS.

COVID Lowered Prospects For Many

Thoughts on Change from Manhattan Institute
b. A Plan for Change

Please share!  Thanks Author/Editor WA


2. Federal Education Involvement Analysis

Education: Federal Spending
The Good and The Bad

P. Krugman 
Increasing wage premium for higher education over
Lester Thurow "...often there is little or no payoff from having a little bit more..."



More Finish HS  Confucius Would be Happy


Median Wealth Stagnates  stlouisfed.org


 Test Scores Unchanged
 Manhattan Institute


While FED's Tie Education Aid to Control


Federal Laws Have Unintended Consequences 

1962 President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting
the unionization of public employees

1969 The Supreme Court,
Tinker v. Des Moines
Independent Community School District
ruled that the Constitution forbids local schools from
suspending students who bring political protest inside the schools.

In dissent Justice Black wrote:

In 1975 Goss v. Lopez, the Court ruled
 in the case of a suspended student,
 a hearing was required.

FEDs Must Give Up Control of Funds

Think of applying the
Brandeis Laboratories of democracy
 approach to education.

Inspired by Storm Before the Calm.

3 . The Economics of College Investing

"Education is a very lumpy investment where often there is
 little or no payoff from having a little bit more." 
 ..."There are big returns to the first years of education
(the education where one gains literacy) and
big payoffs to the last years of education
(a college or graduate degree where one
distinguishes oneself from the pack)
but only small payoffs to those years of education
that move the individual from
 somewhat below average to somewhat above average."

Lester Thurow former dean of the 
MIT Sloan School of Management 



More and More Economic Return
go to Fewer and Fewer Graduates


Source:  MIT


Only Germany
Does Not Use College
 as a Holding Pen

Associated With Education are Still Rewarded
Hours Worked Change

Change in Average Earnings

Year 1988 2016      
Bachelor’s degrees 1,872 2,009 7%

$56,262 to $65,86 Top of Range Earn 17% More.

H.S. diploma     <1%  
Other workers little change  
Editor's Note: Interesting, but since the price level used to
adjust for the change in the value of money over time is not given,
I am not going to bet my life on this Earnings Data.

Treat Student Loans as an Investment  

See Fake News


4. Is College for Everyone

Top HS Students Earn More
Than Bottom College Students


Lead Economist William Emmons,
Policy Analyst A H Kent and Lead Analyst L. Ricketts -




Ability, Major, and Ambition Determines Earnings
Top AA Earners Earn More Than Bottom Half of Bachelor's Graduates
More Data Career Guidance       Lifetime Earnings


Starting Pay

 Starting Pay

   Job Type

Bachelor's Premium With 10 Years Experience



"> $25,400


10% 4%




Dental Hygienist

9% 5%




Registered Nurse

4% 6%




Construction Manager

17% 19%




Inside Sales Rep.

15% 24%


5. College Investing Decisions

Is College Always the Answer?
from the St Louis Fed
01 February 2020

Degrees Required by About 25% of Jobs

For Many It's About the Money


Economic Success Takes More Than a Piece of Paper


Recommendation:    Base Graduate School Loans on ROI and Merit



6. Are College Marketing Efforts Useful?

Way Too Many PhDs



The Merit Aid-Illusion

Uncle Sam is Calling in His Chips.

Collections of delinquent student loans


Pressure Helps Move Cost Away from Students
$ value of loan defaults is down.
Graduate vs. Undergraduates median measures would be useful.

Measuring defaults by loan balance
rather than loan number.

Parents Borrow Lots!


See Interesting Thoughts Concerning Education


Recommendation: Require colleges to report
graduation rates, loan delinquency rates and earnings by major.

You Aren't Actually Mad at the SATs myths about the SAT/ACT

7. Do Top Universities Pay

Top University Admissions is not "our" top education issue.

1. Selective Colleges Help the Poor and the Wealthy Students

Do Top Universities Make a Difference?

For Most College Students, It’s What You Study Not Where You Study

Degrees Required by About 25% of Jobs



Top charts of 2019 clarify economic priorities for 2020

How we education average students
is a much more important issue.

Business is Helping
Manufacturers to spend $26.2 billion on 'upskilling' in 2020
to attract and keep workers.

They will take most of the best candidates, many will have degrees.
But given the vast number of competitors, other skills are needed,


Please share!  Thanks Author/Editor

Health and Safety

Prelude: US Family Health

1. Healthcare is a Long-Term Process   

2. Health Is a Mixed Bag      3. We Still Have Work to Do!

      4. Safety is Much Better BUT

Are Our Children Protected?

Health and Lifestyle
Healthy Dieting
Health Literacy for teens
Healthy Skin

Free Healthcare Learning Materials

CV-19 News
Medicare vs. Medicaid

Prelude: Family Health Has a Low US Priority

Result: Child Mortality is High

See The U.S. spends less on children than almost any other developed nation


Source: what-is-medicare-how-is-it-different-from-medicaid/

1. Healthcare is a Long-Term Process

A. Sweden's CV Decesion Would Eventually be Questioned.
England's Decision to Delay Second Shot Worked Well.


Disaster Preparedness Getting Better


B. Not Everything Gets Better


C. Western Europe Has a Seldom Talked About Problem

4. Decisions Affect Results


2. Health Is a Mixed Bag

A. Teens More Responsible


B. Fewer Divorces Helps

See Improving Health


3. But We Still Have Work to Do!




B. Spending is High


C. But Maternity Deaths Increase.

See A decade in review: The surprisingly good news about American family life — for kids

Safety is Much Better BUT

Children are Safer
Autos are Much Safer



3,037 Fewer Teenage Fatalities
from Injuries Occurred in 2018.


See Data Since 1990s Peak


Everyone is Safer 

But School Shootings Up
 Fatalities Up to 55 in 2018

Drugs Use UP


Does Media Create Paranoid About Terrorist Attacks?

CDC Averages Annual Cause of US Deaths

0.000012 chance of dying in a mass shooting

15,000 murders
  38,000 automobile accident deaths
 3500 text while driving teen deaths

27 mass shootings deaths per year


Is there a more efficient way to help children?

Sadly, about 700 women die each year in the United States
from pregnancy or delivery complications.




1. Who Benefits Most   

      2. The Politics

3. How do Our Poor Live   

4. Good and Bad News

We Spend a Lot on the Poor


US Poor Live Better Than Most
Why?  150 Years of Federal Assistance to Agriculture Lowered Prices.
This Little bit of Socialism
Paid Huge Dividends

Most US Poor Grow Wealth

Poor Spend Lots, Food is Cheap,
Why Is There Food Insecurity?
Could This Be A People Problem?

5 Myths About Inequality 18 min video

1. Who Benefits Most?

Safety Net Helps Many


Much Goes to Elderly and Children

Especially Poor Children

We Pull  Millions from Poverty

We Still Have Work to Do



1. The Politics

Politicians Have Their Choice of Many Measures


Do Voters Know Most Poor People Work?


Survey #2 Improving Voter Knowledge?

from Just Facts


3. How Do Our Poor Live?

US Poor Live Better Than Most
Why?  150 Years of Federal Assistance to Agriculture Lowered Prices.

This Little bit of Socialism Paid Huge Dividends


Our Poor Spend More Than They Earn


Our Poor are Living Better

Read the full Report

Better than the World's Average Person




Editor's Notes:

Measuring economic Wellbeing is difficult.

U.S. Poverty Rate is Fake News Why?



4. Good and Bad News

1. Wealth inequality has not increased
 in the last three decades when Social Security is accounted for.

Discounted Social Security
wealth increased from $5.6 trillion in 1989
 to over $42.0 trillion in 2016.

This 58% is Ignored
 When included for the lower 90%,
much wealth inequality disappears!

 Highlights of the New 2018 Census Bureau

2. Much Elderly Wealth Inequality Has Disappeared



3. The Good

The Official Poverty Measure fell to 11.8%, the lowest since 11.7% in 2001.
This was the end of the 1990s expansion, and before that, not since the late 1960s.

This data ignores noncash benefits such as SNAP, health benefits, and subsidized housing.
Such benefits have grown 16 times faster than anti-poverty benefits counted as income.

Full-time, full-year workers poverty rate was 2.3% percent in 2018.
For families headed by married couples it, was 4.7%.

For those aged 18 to 64 who did not work it, was 29.7%.
For those headed by a single female it, was 24.9%.ety net benefits are excluded.

    Female full-time, full-year median real earnings rose 40% since the 1970s..
    Male full-time, full-year real median earnings were flat.

See Annual Report on U.S. Consumption Poverty: 2018

5. During Recessions, Governments Help More


Progress Has Been Steady

The Bad

Adults over age 25 without a high school diploma poverty rate
 increased 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%.

The Southern US high poverty rate of 13.6% was the only region not to decline.

Primary Sources Official Poverty Measure 

The Congressional Budget Committee
should audit economic statistics and report those that misrepresent wellbeing.

Question:  Should Poverty Rate be Renamed the Gross Poverty Rate?

Learn About Poverty Demographics    The Working Poor

See Decision 2020 Poverty Considerations

See Political Economy Fake News



1. Who Pays What

2. Taxes and the Debt

  3. Changing Who Pays What

4. More Questions Answered


1. Who Pays What

Everyone complains About High Taxes
They always have!

A problem of high taxes began when Western Massachusetts farmers
felt oppressed by a few elite eastern merchants and politicians
who had set up the tax and legal systems to benefit themselves.
 See 1786_Shays_Tax Rebellion

Income Tax Rates Have Dropped for Decades


Rate is Progressive

Business Pay a Smaller Percentage

Costal States Contribute the most.
In 2016 Hillary knew this, followed the money, and lost.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of January 1, 2018

US Government 10-K | USAFacts

The Super Rich Pay Less and Less

Thoughts on Corporate Taxes
Google 2.4% rate shows how $60 billion lost to tax loophole
Lawrence H. Summers and Natasha Sarin:
Yes, our tax system needs reform. Let’s start with this first step.

A ‘wealth tax’ presents a revenue estimation puzzle

Be very skeptical about how much revenue Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax could get

If Business Roundtable CEOs are serious about reform here’s what they should do

Presidential Sanction Against Corporate Paying Little in Taxes
Limit "enforceability of private rights," and "co-opting out of local law."
Income  sustainability not checked, mortgage may not be enforceable.
 Source: Columbia Law School Professor Katharina Pistor

2. Taxes and the Debt

We Have a Spending Problem


3. Changing Who Pays What

The Very Top Need to Pay More

Payroll Taxes are too High

Wealthy Americans Pay Too Little


Cheats Must Pay More

IRS Budget Cuts Resulted in
 a $34.3 Billion Loss of Large Firm Tax Revenue.

Here Are the Cheats

How Big is the Problem of Tax Evasion

Why isn't the IRS on commission?

Inheritance and Donations Taxed as Income


Editor's Note:
US Companies Bring Home 665-billion Tax Haven Cash

Trump's Tax cut makes avoiding taxes easier for billionaires.

Federal Reserve study

More  Questions Answered

Prelude : Economic  Concerns

A. Politics in Control

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

C . Who Cheats and How

D. Tax Where the Money Is

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

F. Would Rich Pay?


Federal Debt



1. To Spend or Not to Spend
      2. A Tale of Two Debts

3. To Pay or Not to Pay, That is the Question

4. 10 Myths About Government Debt

Prelude 8/28/23

1. To Spend or Not to Spend

2. A Tale of Two Debts

3. To Pay or Not to Pay, That is the Question

1. To Spend or Not to Spend-That is the Question

Everyone Gains from the Federal Debt
In the Good Old Days, FED's Borrowed To Finance War.
Great Depression Began Barrowing To Fight a War on Poverty.
For CV-19 We Borrow to Help
State and Local Governments, Business, Unemployed, Education  ...



2. A Tale of Two Debts


You Will Get Your FED Retirement Check.
It's value adjusts for inflation
What is worth will be based on what economy can produce.

States Can't Print Money, Defaults Happen.
You Might Not Get Your State Retirement. 

But, Fed Debt Has Inflation, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Risk.

Inflation usually follows printing too many dollars.

The Economics of Debt
Debt increases demand.
Supply must keep up or inflation results.
Increasing productivity negates inflation.
Recently, World Production Oversupply has Kept Inflation Low.

The Political Economy of Debt
By incurring debt states
trade an element of sovereignty – ability to the electorate’s demands
for spending excepted to the political minefield of raising taxes.
Beginning before WW1,the US has steadily gained the economic clout
to maintain her economic sovereignty.


A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises.

"If readers take one lesson from this book,
I hope it is this: when it comes to financial crises,

we're not
in the grip of unseen and hopelessly complex forces.
Such crises are neither inevitable nor unpredictable.

Runaway private debt
and the resulting overcapacity
does a better job than any other variable in explaining and predicting financial crises.
It is our job to heed those danger signs."

Source: Symposia Historical Evolution Money and Debt
(Vague 2019, p. ix)
 Brief History of Doom (INET)
has concise data summary
Video 14 min.

Editor's Note: Public Debt Concerns are Not Financial.
Who receives the money and what is bought concerns many.


3. Out of Control, Pay It

U.S. Debt: Is It the Calm Before the Storm?  

1. Interest Payments Are Low

But, FED Printing Money Could Cause Inflation
Causing Higher Interest Rates and More Taxes.

2. Historically,
Inflation/Growth Has Lowered Relative Debt


3. So Far So Good

  End of
Fiscal Year
US Gross Debt
in Nominal USD billions
US Gross Debt
as % of GDP
  1940 43.0 52.4 No One
  1950 257.4 94.1
  1960 290.2 56.1
  1970 389.2 37.6
  1980 930.2 33.3 No One
  1990 3,233 55.9
  2000 5,674 58 TBD
  2005 7,933 64.6
  2007 9,008 65.5
  2008 10,699.8 74.6 (EST)
  2009           11,046.2   TBD
  United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Postscript: Historically, We Used Debt to Pay for
1. Revolutionary War
2. The Civil War
3. WW 1
4. Great Depression Poverty
5. WW 2
6. War on Poverty
7. To Control the Great Recession/Financial Collapse
8. To Protect all Sectors from CV's Economic Effect

Today We Spend It On All Voters
Spending Creates Happy Voters Who Vote for Incumbents

Historically, the U.S. Has Succeeded by Using Inflation
and Economic Growth to Postpone Economic Pain.

People loved dot-coms, until they didn’t.
They loved credit default swaps, until they blew up.
Now, with low interest cost, they love cash-burning companies.

“When the music stops
for expanding liquidity, things will be complicated."
Chuck Prince on debt-fueled private equity deals before the Financial Crisis.

Many will say "who cares" because they believe in Modern Monetary Policy


Prologue     The Good    The Bad   



American Nations.

Growth US Federal Economic Power

Historical Period       Defining Federal Power  > 3. Disposition

1.Founding to Civil War Legitimacy in Relations to States FED's Superior
2. Civil War to New Deal Extent of Federal Power Limited by Deficits, Philosophy
3. New Deal to Recently That Needed to Help All Constituencies Limited by Philosophy
4. A New Direction
Storm Before the Calm
Changes to help Voters to Make
 Appropriate Collective Long-term Choices
In response to Alexander Hamilton's desire for national direct economic development,
John Madison foresaw a National Administrative State.
This would damage Federalism by claiming national responsibility
currently belonging to state and local governments.
This would create and increase federal responsibilities.
 By expanding federal limited powers, control would move
from the legislative branch to the executive branch. 

Thoughts from James .Q. Wilson, American academic, political scientist,
and an authority on public administration

as reported by George Will in
The Conservative Sensibility


The Good















The Very Good

Selected Countries by value

Inefficient or Efficient  World Leader

China - $952.6 billion - 26.77% employed in agriculture
India - $381.7 billion - 43.86% employed in agriculture

United States - $204.9 billion -
1.42% in farming
Indonesia - $135.5 billion - 30.53% in farming
Nigeria - $83.4 billion - 36.62% in farming
France - $55.6 billion - 2.6% employed in agriculture
Turkey - $46 billion - 19.2% employed in agriculture
Australia - $43 billion --2.57% employed in agriculture
Spain - $42.8 billion -4.31% employed in agriculture

The Bad

The 4Gs Own Politics

High Prices:
Unintended Consequences of Government Support

Editor's Question:
 Is Government most socialist program
agriculture, health care, education or is in Oil?


Very Bad

Was the $6.4 Trillion Spent on Terror.
 A Good a Decision?

A look at the International Death Toll

Question: Rather than just leaving Syria,
should Trump have proposed Europe take it over by 6/30/20.















See Should the Federal Debt be Paid from class notes I first wrote in 1966.



Government Spending Grew
17.5% to 21.5% of GDP

People Got More,
Defense Got Less


Everyone Got More
Some Got More Than Others
Lowest two deciles helped lots by S and Investment Income!

An example of the unintended consequences of government support is increased Social Security
 benefits paralleled the decrease in the personal savings rate
 Government Deficits Fund Private Savings.


Government Spends About 21% of GDP

Learn About

Who What, Where, When and Why We Borrow

See Decision 2020 Industrial Policy

Editorials: Is Median Wealth Understated?





The Majority rules and minority rights must be protected.

Limits on Democracy and Majority Rule
1. All are Guaranteed Individual Rights

2. Constitutional protects minority from majority.

3. Supreme Court manages evolving constitution.

See Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic

Politics in America  How Democracies Die 4 min video


2. Reelection Battle: Regan vs. Bush

Regan's World: 1984 Trump's World: 2020
Unconventional Statements
Unemployment Checks are for a paid vacation
Trees cause 80% of air pollution
Unconventional Statements
Unemployment is 40%
CV-19  not a problem 
See Fake News 1 Claiming Trumpisms are Lies
Regan's America See Conservatism vs. Progressivism 8p
Ebbing- Social Rights Movements:
Women, Minorities, Gays
Growing Christian Conservative Movement against feminism, casual premarital sex and open homosexuality and wide spread drug use. Think Cultural Wars
Life style disruptions: Technology disrupted work places and homes-
Cable, CNN, Apple Macintosh, HP printers, Motorola mobile phone
Trump's America
New Social Movements:
Me Too, Black Lives Matter, Proud Boys
Christian Conservative Movement: leads takeover of Supreme Court
Life style disruptions: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Amazon Prime


Economy Booms
Capitalism and Wealth in charge Think
Neoliberal Economics, Lifestyle of the Rich and Famous.
Growth Highest in ± 3 decade, Unemployment down, Inflation down,
Average Annual Income up 3.5%: top fifth = 9% middle class =1% and bottom fifth -8%
Economy Tanks
Capitalism and Wealth were in charge: Think Modern Monetary Theories minimalize deficits
Top 1% vs. Fellowship of the Deplorable
Five year Great Depression rebound ends with Pandemic shutdown.
COVID hits low income earners hard, socialism rebound assistance slowed by politics.
AIDS Ignored
Millions died before society and medical profession significantly slow disease
COVID Ignored
thousands dead, medical professions offers much hope
Morning Again in America
Voters decided
government had gone far: what federal aid programs should be cut, which civil rights to limit and which to  enlarge, which natural resources to develop and which to protect
Country heading for a better future
Regan's divisive ideology was wrapped in a warm and grandfatherly package
Keep America Great
Voters to decide if Government Technocrats regain control and
Financial Technocrats continue control began under Clinton.
Country to encounter hard times. See Storm Before the Calm 2p
Generations and The Fourth Turning 2p


1. Managing a Democratic Federalist Republic Politics is difficult.

As a centrist,
I do not want an extremist US President.

 How Democracies Die.

As a centrist, a healer like
 Michael Bloomberg is required.

2. Politics Changed

we elect politicians who promised to fix;

we elect politicians who promise to dismantle,

With Both,
voters required
no alternative solutions.
Arab Spring 2010   Brexit 2016
America's Health Care 2016 to

Source Unusual Uncertainty: The World in 2020 and Beyond"
 Mohamed El-Erian Interview Video

1. Taxes


2. Middle Class Enjoys Steady Economic Gains?

Analysis: American capitalism has been too successful.
America's Democracy-not so much!  

Concerns: Low Social Mobility Higher Income Inequality

3 Which Sacrifice? Democrats Want Green Energy


Little Invested in Green Energy

Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute,
and author of Work in the Age of Robots by Encounter Books.

See Decoupling-Debunked  




Editor's Thoughts: Except got Academic Education,
US fiscal policy has been for less taxes for everyone
while infrastructure and other investments were ignored.

Trump's Sacrifice is a Cold War with China

He's in Charge   Source

Trump's China Attack Requires More Military Spending

Best Navy in Asia-Japan

The best navy in Asia has 114 warships and 45,800 volunteer personnel. It's fleet has fast, powerful destroyers, thoroughly modern diesel-electric attack submarines, and amphibious ships that can haul tanks and other ground forces. It can hunt submarines, square off against invasion fleets, and shoot down enemy ballistic missiles. Despite all of that firepower, this is not in fact a navy at all, but an armed cohort of civil servants.

Japan Approves Record Defense Budget of 5.3 Trillion Yen ..

Learn About:

Grand Strategy of Western Leaders
China, Russia, and U.S. Geopolitical Rivals? 
Trump's New Geopolitical Era

Is Trump's Trade War a Geopolitical War?

Like the Cold War, Winning Will Sacrifice Required Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass on China Trade Deal
Both agree a move to confrontational capitalism is warranted.

Tom Friedman agrees on the seriousness of the issues.

Parag Khanna Google’s
pulling Huawei's Android  license is 'intimately connected' to US-China trade war.

See Trump’s Foreign Policy Is No Longer Unpredictably

Editor's Notes:
1. Because Trump's policy smears our foreign policy establishment,
bias concerning Trump's Foreign Policy  is possible.
Read sources for opinions. Of course Nixon ignored FP establishment.

2. Trump is much like Reagan. Both knew little theory and few statistics.
Reagan belied that capitalism was just better than Communism.
This led to conflicted Russian relations as he called them and evil empire while getting along with Gorbachev and pursuing arms reduction.

Why did the Americans know so little about Russia's economic chaos? Why did conservative politicians and media create so much fear?
Is Trump being buddies with Putin an attempt
at containment while the US hurts Russia with sanctions?

Some US Military Spending Protects Europe
But Trump Wants to

Will Trump let them organize.
Where were Obama, Bush, Clinton?


Fewer Europeans Sacrifice

Is it time for Germany and France
 to Put Up or Shut Up?






China's Economic Miracle in Context

China Winning Strategy

Reform Eras Income Growth

4. Forgiving Student Loans?
Millennials Aren’t Drowning
in Student Debt

Sixty-six percent of Millennials have no student debt  Most burdens are relative to their income. Borrowers  accumulate $28,500 in debt that can be paid back with monthly payments of less than $200). B, Akers, Manhattan Inst

The surprising role of high-income families
 in student debt trends




Benefits from Forgiving Student Debts
Student receiving loan relief reduced their use of
credit cards resulting in debt reduction by 26%.
They were 11% less likely to default on other accounts. Geographical mobility increased, more changed jobs, and income increased by about $3000 over a three year.
NBER Working Paper No. 25810. 6/19
M. Di Maggio, A. Kalda, V. Yao  purchase  $5









Much of the Debt is Held by Parents and Grandparents
Graduate Students Have the Highest Debt Per Borrower.



5. A Need for Socialism?

Do We Need This Kind Of Socialism?


Socialism Takes 73% of Federal Budget


Should Farm Aid Be Part of Socialism?




Government Economic Involvement began with Hamiltonian Economics which centering  on building infrastructure to help business during Washington's presidency. Soon on politicians battled minimal state liberalism (today's conservatism) and active state liberalism (today's liberalism). Public good expansion began in Ernst in the  20th century. Today Conservatives and Progressives do battle to control federal spending.

Are Americans Better Off than they were a Decade or Two-Ago B. Bernanke

A wealth tax would be highly progressive, probably reduce national saving and investment although capital inflows from abroad counter the reduction. Exemptions for selected assets would diminish the tax’s yield. Compliance and administration challenges and it might be ruled unconstitutional .  It would be simpler to increase in tax progressivity through reforms of the income tax and estate and gift taxes.

US Has Lots More Income, Spends a little more on Safety Net


Analysis: While U.S. has easily the most income per capita, UK is second with 25% less, but is only slightly ahead in wellbeing. The French take long vacations and retire earlier, and they typically work fewer hours. Their higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the United States),  presumably reflects advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Their income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed than is the norm in the United States. Source:

Charles Jones and Peter Klenow proposes an interesting new measure of economic welfare. It is by no means perfect, yet it is considerably more comprehensive than median income, taking into account not only per capita consumption, growth more is better changes in working time. less is better life expectancy more is better and inequality less is better.


Europe is More Socialistic
in Her Approach to Unemployment.



Will COVID Move US Toward European Unemployment Approach

Does US Have Enough Socialism?

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems


Medicaid Federal and State healthcare tied to income. Americans children, pregnant women, parents, seniors, and individuals with disabilities. Instability of income changes eligibility and resulting health care.

Multiple programs with both state and federal management creates excessive cost and unequal coverage. Cost incurred by emergency care passed on by hospitals to private insurers who pass it on to consumers. Solution Medicare For All is not acceptable to the electorate.

Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same,
high income earners pay most

Required additional
health care cost are
difficult for many

Longer life, especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care, will increases cost. Free causes poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, and higher deductibles is not acceptable to the electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive a higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See  Table 1 and  Table 3 Deficit until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure "42" "#CFTC"> Solution: later retirement not acceptable to the electorate.
Projected negative cash flow could add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations, inheritance Table 2

Tax payers don't appreciate
 their benefit (entitlements?)

Solution: Setting limits is unacceptable to electorate.
Treating both inheritance and nonprofit donations as
taxable income is not acceptable to the electorate.
Editor's Solution:
1. Make employer sponsored health programs over ten years with  1/55 the first year. 2/55 the second year, and 10/55 the third rear.
2. Make new born children  from conception through year one part of Medicare. Increase child's insurable age by a year until age ten.
3. Resulting free market adjustments should determined program changes.
Source: Entitlements Require Political Action

Defining Socialism

1) 19th and 20th Century Utopian Socialism
Government Ownership of All Means of Production.
These Planned Systems were either Communal or Authoritarian.
Location: Eastern Europe.

All failed!

 2. Post WW 2 Democratic Socialism
Government controls key industries such as utilities,
 transportation and communications. Stresses social Welfare.

Many older Americans still use this definition.
Location: Western Europe
Current State:

Geography Enhances Social Stress will continues.

3) Current Mixed Economy Socialism
Government Helps Support Economic Safety Net:
Health insurance, retirement provisions, and
access to less expensive higher education.
Makes capitalism more humane, egalitarian, and more protective.

United States

Concerns: Geographically Limits Social Stress to cycles.

Current Systems

1. Scandinavian Nordic model,
Popularized by Democrat Sanders, it includes
a comprehensive welfare state
multi-level collective bargaining,
more workers unionized,
economic foundations of regulated market capitalism will continue

2. Biden Increases Socialism.
Large public investments over the next 10 years.
Much Government Spending minimized Covid's recession more than Great Recession spending.
A Large expansion of health care is short of the progressive Medicare for Al plans

$3.375 trillion tax increase over 10 year with most coming from the top 1%.

3. Associate Socialism with Totalitarian Communism
Russia Confined wealth to party members and by limiting wealth creation, had equality of poverty .
China created and distributed wealth with more market capitalism but
CPC  fears of potential unrest create an uncertain future.

See Socialism A Concise History  Socialism-What You Should Know About

2) Paul Krugman Agrees With Our
More Socialist Young People

"On fiscal and economic responsibility:

Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times.

How the Law Creates Wealth and Inequality

Globalization has evolved the legal sphere of private actors
who can now pick and choose from legal systems of
England, New York state, and for corporate law you can add Delaware.
The states is deeply involved in the creation of legal privilege at every level of all markets. How  private parties use the coercive power to organize their private affairs and bank on enforceability is instrumental to understanding the financial crisis.
Protection of a property rights had been socialized. 
Think late 20th century bank bailouts. 

Source: The Code of Capital  from K. Pistor

Solution: Replace the easily avoided estate tax with an inheritance tax
subject to income and payroll tax.

Alternative A Lifetime exemption: 
$500,000  Affected: 0.18%
Ten-year revenue estimate:
$1.4 trillion

Alternative B  Lifetime exemption: $2.5 million  Affected:  .02%
Ten year revenue estimate $340 billion

Alternative C Closing many tax-planning loopholes adding revenue to alternatives A


6. Know the Enemy:
 Voter Attitudes Toward the Enemy and Themselves
Survey of 1000 Voters


Editor's Thoughts:

Democrats should not expect Republicans to stand aside
while no effort is made to measure the cost effectiveness of our safety net.

Republicans should not expect Democrats to stand aside
 while no effort is made to solve problems affecting many people.



7. Understanding Issues Changed Attitudes!



Consider Reality When Voting Tax Policies

source washingtonpost.com/

Editor: Will Investigate When Candidates are Determined.


Asian Team Polluting Team Beating the West

See Decision 2020
Considerations and Recommendations

Socialism is the Latest Battle

Does Slow USA Population Growth,
Like Europe, Mean Geopolitical Dependence?

Population Change 1790-2020
and the Projected Change in Congressional Representation

Learn More About 2020 Election

Conservatism vs. Progressivism  
Election of 1795 Begins the Battle
Determining Political Power and "We the People"

Trump's Grade 8/19 Report

Economic myths Democrats peddled at debate

 Ramesh Ponnuru | Bloomberg Opinion


Polarity and Populism in America
The Rise and Fall of 20th Century Civility

Civility Declined while Animosity and Polarity Increased

Adolph Ochs bought the NYT in 1898.
He responded to his many Yellow Journalism competitors with

"All The News That's Fit To Print."
Result was more congenial media for about 60 years.


1. Did Supreme Court Cause the Fall?
2. Has Political Control Affected Civility?
3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute?
4. The Telecommunication Act of 1986
5. Citizens United v. FEC
6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public
7. Banning Earmarks in 2011
8. Anxiety Caused Populism

1. Did Supreme Court Increase Polarity?
Court Allowed State Redistricting Plans, Schools Integration/busing/housing, Abortion
Trouble began when federal efforts went
beyond stopping Jim Crow laws.

State Management Differs With Single Party Control
This is problematic because in most states the minority party has about 40% of voters support.
This is especially true when state primaries have success to a single winner.
Increasing Cavil Rights, Abortion, and Gun Control began the movement of
conservatives into the Republican Party and liberal into the Democratic Party.

2. Has Political Control Affected Civility?
Political Parties Began to polarize
when FDR kept control
of the Democratic Party by excluded many poor southerners from New Deal.
Northern Democrats
began catering to blacks.
LBJ sealed the change
with the 1966 Civil Rights Act.
Roe v. Wade a
dded fuel to the fire.
became Republican, Coasts became Democratic.
sealed the breach and political polarity intensified.

State Management Differs With Single Party Control

This is problematic because in most states,
the minority party has about 40% of voters support.

3. Did the Federal Policy Contribute?

The 1987 Communication Industry Fairness Doctrine was eliminated.
Radio Stations were no longer required to present contrasting views.
Rush Limbaugh, who had popularized conservative talk radio, now had fewer restrictions.
Talk Radio and Identity Politics
Conservative and Liberal Polarization Proliferate

4. Telecommunications Act of 1996
allowed multi-station company ownership and national network developed.
As of 2011, Clear Channel Communications

iHeart Media owned over 800 US radio stations
  Rush Limbaugh wealth eventually climbed to $400 million.

5. Citizens United v. FEC 
Allowed Increased Political Contributions
Campaign funding increased and sponsorship diversified,
 which supported both intended and unintended
Fake News.

6. Sports Trash Talking Went Public
Mohamed Ali practically invented this 1960's genre
 as a boastfully Cassius Clay.
Athlete had been formal, cordial, and boring.
Ali changed everything with his elite out-of-ring bantering
 which was only rivaled by his in-ring dominance.

Larry Bird
and others soon followed.

7. Banning Earmarks in 2011
increased polarization as political cooperating to
 “bring home the bacon” ended.

See Avoiding Effects Of Groupthink

Anxiety Caused Populism

Americans are at each other’s throats. Here is one way out.
Inspired by this Amanda Ripley Washington Post Opinion 12/20/19  

High conflict is irresolvable and will continue even when the associated problems are solvable.

Social Psychologist Peter T. Coleman's book,

The Five Percent, states that about 1 in every 20 conflicts are this way.  

“Once we are drawn in, they take control,”

 They enrage, trap frustrate, drain our energy/critical resources, and will never go away.

A 2017 survey of 1,000 Americans found 40 percent of both Republicans
and Democrats thought the other party was downright evil.

Five to 15 percent of both parties would support some level of violence
against their political opponents.
A minority of ‘... haters’ can have more influence than a majority

 of non-haters 
Halperin writes in his book Emotions in Conflict.

In high conflict, our brains behave differently.
Fear, anger and hatred rule.
Sometimes anger can be useful.
It can support reconciliation, taking risks in peace talks...
Hatred assumes the enemy is unchangeable, irredeemable, and unimprovable.
They must be annihilate. 

We can get the minority of haters to stop hating because
a peace message lowers Americas’ support for political violence.
After Trump 
tweeted condemnation for the Charlottesville racist violence,
violence support dropped for partisan voters.
Joe Biden's similar peace 
message condemning an Antifa attack
on a conservative journalist also lowered support for such violence.

How to Reset a Mind Set
An ingrained negativity bias leads to a perpetual sense of crisis,
a feeling that things are getting worse—even when things are getting better.

The Wall Street Journal


Personal Journey
More than five years ago I began adding
political economy studies to
Quick Notes Economics.
Studied were U.S. history and presidential politics.
Then came biographies of influential presidents.
Today I am studying the 4th populist-terrorist episode
of attacks to post WW 1 United States.

Anxiety increased when blacks increased their economic and political power.
They received a more of our economic pie.
Then Asians got more pie followed in close proximity by women.
Fear from 9/11 amplified our anxiety.

White Christian middle class men and women were no longer the center of society.

Educators had long been acting as if the normal curve did not exist.
Education would be the great equalizer. It could solve most issues.

Then the Great Recession many hardships to rural areas and the Rust Belt very hard.

Result was, individual failure has continues.

Equal educational opportunity was not enough.
More Education spending was not the answer.
Unbiased observers knew that nature and
nurture were not equally distributed.
Education Change was needed.

Special blame goes to the politicians, economists and professionals.
Economic success and political stability of 1980-2000 fostered technocrat control.
ut, too often they provided inadequate, bias, Information that was
not applicable to a particular issue.
There failures are the 
real Fake News.

It is more dangerous than the fake news coming from lies,

once called
 Yellow Journalism, and Propaganda.

The Great Society created a time bomb.
The explosion was delayed by the Reagan Revolution followed by fifteen years of economic prosperity.
Then the dot com bubble ended prosperity and 9/11 lit the fuse.
Then Gay Rights put a psychological hurt on many middle class white Christians.
 Finally a black President’s health care plan took many back to the beginning, to Great Society animosity.
Trump's election signified a new Populism.
 It is much like our other
20th Century Populism episodes.

Democracy is supposed to be troublesome. Those most unhappy raise Cain.
Oligarchs run the show and maximize their wealth from our ever growing economic pie.
Populism caused the Civil War, the Revolutionary War and the King Phillips War.
By accepting more responsibility, Oligarchs could avert a forth devastating event.
Baby Boomers are leaving populist issues to Millennials.
They must take control during what some consider a Fourth Turning

Fake News

A. Unintended Fake News Explored

# 1 Claiming Trumpisms are Lies
Trump Just Doesn't Understand

“Fifty Times Last Original Number NO WAY!” Trump's
He claimed Actual Unemployment was "42%"
Visit this Warning and Learns Why

#2 U.S. Education Failures Continue

Test Scores Stagnates
We are Falling as some countries score higher
Education is the Answer

Visit this Warning and Learns How/Why

Political Economy
Quantitative Misrepresentations from
Some Media, Economist, Politicians

#3 Wages Stagnant

#5 Low Retirement Savings Plague Seniors

#6 National Debt is a Catastrophe

#7 Income Inequality

#8  Is COVID-19 Media Caused Hysteria!

Boston Sports

#9 Curse of the Bambino

#10 Belichick's Failed at Cleveland With a 36–44 Record

#11 Bill's Famous 4th and 2 Indianapolis Decision on the 29 yard line

See: Media Negativity 4 min video

B. Intended Fake News
A Modern Name for Yellow Journalism
and Propaganda,
provided Fodder for Media, Politicians Think-tanks.

C. Recognizing Unbiased News
Look for a date, author, data source, logical facts, internet domain, writing style...

D. Real News Becoming Fake News

Solved Issues are No Longer News
Russian Election Meddling Known
Solution Analysis is Now News
Trump's Connection Speculation Fake News


The Bottom Line

1. Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

2. The Cycles of Capitalism

3. Still Voters Want More

4. Who Gets the Money?

1. Most Westerners Live Better Than Ever

A. WW 1 Began Middle Class Wealth Accumulation in England


Source author has a different interpretation of data.
UK's Hidden Wealth indicates a smaller drop for those at the very top.
Wealth should include government required insurance.

B. U.S. Wealth Accumulation Began Earlier

Log Scale link














C. US Growth Continues to Continue

D. Consumption Gets Most Growth


E. Our Consumer Driven Society

F. US World Rankings



2. The Cycles of Capitalism

A. Shorter Recession, Longer Expansions


B. Great Recession Temporally Slowed Growth


C. Will Labor's Share Return to Normal? 



3. Still Voters Want More



   High Turnout Means Unhappy Voters

Editor's Note:

See Fake News        Please Share!


The Good

Source: Is The Narrative On Worker Pay Accurate?




American Enterprise Institute



 The Bad

Inequality Differences Could Get Even Larger

See Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis

and  Unchecked Power



Epilogue: Communicating a Reasonable Reality Without Fake News
Continues to be Our Most Pressing Problem

U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015





Crime is Down


Few Believe It!


Learn About: Work     Education      Health     Safety     Poverty     Civility    

Taxes     Debt     Government     2020 Election
Populism   Socialism    Geopolitics     Terror     Fake News     The Bottom Line    

 6/19/19  Please Share!  Meet  our editor

Poverty Demographics

Poorer States Get Most Federal Help

Note: This does not say "Most Children are poor."

Some Feel Rich Have Too Much of Our Wealth

Wealth of Lower Income Cohorts should Includes
Medicare, Medicaid, Safety Net and Help from Friends and Family.


Elderly and Children Receive Substantial Assistance

The Working Poor


Eligibility Monthly Income
One person $1287 Gross, 990Net

Working Means Fewer Benefits

See Little Help from 2nd Worker  

States Determine When Income is Too High to Receive a Benefit
Family Size 100% 133% 138% 250%
1 $12,140 $16,146 $16,753 $30,350 $48,560
2 $16,460 $21,892 $22,715 $41,150 $65,840
3 $20,780 $27,637 $28,676 $51,950 $83,120
4 $25,100 $33,383 $34,638 $62,750 $100,400
5 $29,420 $39,129 $40,600 $73,550 $117,680
6 $33,470 $44,515 $46,189 $84,350 $133,880
7 $38,070 $50,633 $52,537 $95,150 $152,280
8 $42,380 $56,365 $58,484 $105,950 $169,520
For households with more than 8, add $4,320 for each additional person. Note: Eligibility for premium tax credits in coverage year 2019 is based on poverty guidelines for 2018.
FPL = federal poverty line.

Few Real Poor Work







Fake News
Bottom Line

2020 Election

Have FED's Improved Education?

"It does not matter how slowly you go
as long as you don't stop."
Source1: Historical Leaders Education Observations
P. Drucker Emphasize what learners do well.
Advise from Recent Leaders


    "Last week, the Trump administration released its 2021 budget request which would cut Department of Education outlays by 8 percent while proposing dramatic change in how federal school dollars are allocated."

Editor: Switching to a block grant allotment of funds is a good idea.

Give x dollars for an existing underfunded y program with no guidelines.

Just someone keeping an eye that it goes for y and not football.

Think the Brandeis Laboratories of democracy used to allocate funds for all programs
and get the WW 2 approach to expert driven complicated programs that can not be managed. Inspired by 
See  Storm Before the Calm.



More Finish HS-Confucius Would be Happy

Median Wealth Down


1. FED's Provide Some Money and Sets the Rules


2. Federal Laws Have Unintended Consequences 

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy Executive Order 10988
led to state laws permitting the unionization of public employees

1969 the U.S. Supreme Court, in Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District,
ruled that the
Constitution forbids local schools from suspending students who bring political protest
inside the schools.
 In his dissent, Justice Black wrote:
"I repeat that if the time has come when pupils of state-supported schools,
kindergartens, grammar schools, or high schools,
can defy and flout orders of school officials to keep their minds on their own schoolwork,
 it is the beginning of a new revolutionary era of permissiveness in this country fostered by the judiciary."

In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court
ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote In 1975 Goss v. Lopez,
the Court  ruled in the case of a suspended student, a hearing was required.
 In dissent Justice Powell wrote "One who does not comprehend the meaning and necessity for discipline
is handicapped not merely in his education but throughout his subsequent life."

3. FED Rules and Money
Did Not Increase Testing Results

Manhattan Institute


4. Local Community Prioritize Goals


5. More Suggestions

Learn More About Testing

Instead of turning K-12 education into K-16,
governments should embrace the kaleidoscope of learning approaches.

There are several ways to boost on-the-job learning in the U.S. labor market. One is to give companies more incentive to provide worker training. To some extent, this is already happening -- in 2017, according to one report, U.S. companies spent $90.6 billion on training, representing a substantial increase from 2016 (though much of this may represent training regarding sexual harassment and other bad behavior). Government tax breaks and other incentives could encourage more companies to train their own workers instead of relying on the publicly funded education system to do it for them.

Apprenticeships are another approach. Widely regarded as having been successful in Germany, and with evidence suggesting returns similar to those of other types of education, these programs are catching on in the U.S., with about a half-million people now in apprenticeship programs. Although typically associated with manufacturing, apprenticeships can also be useful for white-collar jobs. Under a program from the Obama era, the Department of Labor has been helping set up apprenticeships.


6. Testing Headlines Misinform

2015 U.S. students ranked
40th in math literacy
25th in science literacy
24th in reading literacy.
Singapore topped all nations
in all three categories.
International Students Assessment

On the World Stage
U.S. Students Fall Behind

Massachusetts PISA Scores
are about the same as Singapore.

 Data on test taker percentages
not provided.
Prejudice for and against
makes all data Suspect.



A Different Look

Testing Headlines Chase Money-Not Truth

The Nation's Report Card Unchanged



A line graph shows that the national average mathematics score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 2013, but was not significantly different compared to 2005, the first year of the current trend line based on a new framework.


A line graph shows that the national average reading score in 2015 for grade 12 students was lower compared to the score in 1992, the initial reading assessment year, but was not significantly different compared to 2013.

Math Tests Unchanged Since 1971

Image of a line graph with three horizontal lines showing average scores for age 9, age 13, and age 17 students. The X axis is labeled year and shows various years from 1971 through 2012. The Y axis is labeled scale score and shows a range of scores from 0 to 500. Each horizontal line consists of two assessment variations: original assessment format and revised assessment format. 
      There are two data points in the transition year between original and revised formats. 
      For Reading age 9: The original format was used, In 1971 = 208, significantly different from 2012; 
      In 1975 = 210, significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 215, significantly different from 2012;
       In 1984 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 212, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1990 = 209, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 211, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1994 = 211, significantly different from 2012; In 1996 = 212, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 
       212, significantly different from 2012; In 2004 = 219; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 216, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 220; and In 2012 = 221. For Reading age 13: 
       The original format was used, In 1971 = 255, significantly different from 2012; In 1975 = 256, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1980 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1984 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1988 = 257, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 257, 
       significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 260; In 1994 = 258, significantly different from 2012; 
       In 1996 = 258, significantly different from 2012; In 1999 = 259, significantly different from 2012;
        In 2004 = 259, significantly different from 2012; The revised format was used, In 2004 = 257, 
        significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 260, significantly different from 2012; and In 2012 = 263. 
        For Reading age 17: The original format was used, In 1971 = 285; In 1975 = 286; In 1980 = 285;
         In 1984 = 289; In 1988 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1990 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1992 = 290, significantly different from 2012; In 1994 = 288; In 1996 = 288; In 1999 = 288; In 2004 = 285; 
         The revised format was used, In 2004 = 283, significantly different from 2012; In 2008 = 286; and In 2012 = 287.

US Mathematics & Reading at Grade 12


Reasons Test Score Differ

The Difference: Report Card Tests are Constant
PISA Changes Periodically

See Long and Short-Term Testing.

Testing is Big Business

Standardized Test Sales, 1955–1997


Standardized tests mean large profits to testing companies
Changing from a two-part Scholastic Aptitude Test to a three-part test
 has made a lot of money for a lot of people.

Business Week
2005 reports
"Kaplan, a unit of The Washington Post,
saw SAT-related sales jump up to 50% in the later half of 2004...."
SAT companies got a similar hike in 1994, when tests were last modified."

New curriculums mean large profits for curriculum design companies,
textbook companies and Standardized Testing companies.

The academics who advise these companies receive
substantial consulting fees plus ego enhancements.

Product Line Expanded
More than 25 percent of public high school seniors graduating last May
 took at least one AP test."


Four companies that dominate the business
 of making/scoring standardized tests.
As of 2011, Gaston Caperton,  the president of the College Board, nonprofit owner of SAT,
 was paid $1.3 million.
 Richard Ferguson, former executive officer of ACT Inc., made roughly $1.1 million.
The National Board on Educational Testing and Public Policy at Boston College
reported that the value of the standardized testing market was anywhere between
$400 million and $700 million." huffingtonpost.com

Standardized test exists to create a better life for young people.
 But these tests  hurt young people economically and emotionally.

Epilogue: Education should center on Howard Gardner's
equally valued normally distributed
Multiple Intelligences,
concentrating on a student's
Special Intelligence
not harming  self actualization.

See Decision 2020 Education Considerations

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More Data on Taxes

Prelude :  Five Economic Concerns
A. Politics in Control
B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

C. Who Cheats and How
D. Tax Where the Money Is!

E. Attitudes Toward Taxes
F. Would Rich Pay?


Prelude:  Five Economic Tax Concerns

1-5 Ayn Rand's Predicted a Tipping Point
Which Begins a Slow Long-Term Growth Decline.

Creative Destruction Fuels Our Economic Prosperity    Source
Average of S&P 500 Index ten-year was 33 years, by 1990 it was 20 years.

Since 1955, only 52 companies still have ten-year top 500 membership.

Do you think higher taxes would have kept Bill Gates at Harvard?
Kept Steve jobs at Reed College and out of the computer business?

2-5 Would a Wealth Tax Lower Wealth Created by Entrepreneurs?

See Wealth Tax Economics


Has Private Business Reacted to Income Inequality?



Editor's Note: Should Ayn Rand and Milton Freedman are turning over in their graves?

3-5 Do We Over Accommodate Business












Profits Moved to the Very Top


4-5 We Lead the West in Productivity

Editor's Note:
First we were losing to Russia, then Germany, then Japan, then Europe and now China.
It has always been a battle.
It has usually always been a
battle of rivals maybe adversaries, seldom enemies.

5-5. Key Questions
Are the Most Productive Affected?     When and How Will They Be Affected?


A. Politics is in Control

A. IRS Demanding Billions Less From the Wealthy

In 2009, the IRS had formed a crack team of specialists to unravel ultra-wealthy ax dodges.
A battle had begun. Soon the Republicans in Congress began slashing the agency’s budget.
High-powered tax lawyer and now Trump’s IRS commissioner, warned that the squad was conducting “the audits from hell.”

In 2012 the wealth team embarked on a contentious audit of German billionaire businessman George Schaeffler.
ProPublica reconstruct the key points in the Schaeffler case.
Eventually they determined owed about $1.2 billion in unpaid taxes and penalties.
Then, after seven years of grinding bureaucratic combat, the IRS abandoned its campaign.
They would accept just tens of millions of dollars.

Having to battle high-priced lawyers and accountants was too much.

summarized from propublica.org

B. Legally Avoiding Taxes

Congress Has Given Many a Tax Break

So Has Trump


Corporations Pay Less So Stockholders Get More


Dodging Taxes is Easier

See Millionaires and Corporate Giants Escaped IRS Audits in FY 2018

Tax Dodge Lets Investors Save Big

"Typically, when you sell a stock for more than you paid, you owe tax on the gain.
But thanks to a quirk in a Nixon-era tax law,
funds can avoid that tax if they use the stock to pay off a withdrawing fund investor.
Heartbeats come into play when there isn’t an exiting investor handy.
A fund manager asks a friendly bank to create extra withdrawals
 by rapidly pumping assets in and out.


The Very Rich

Top 400 families have more wealth than bottom 60 percent of households,
while the top 0.1 percent own same as bottom 80 percent.


Wealth Tax Economics

C. Who Cheats and How

Return to Taxes Index

The Who


It is a Long Parade

Source: Brookings

The How


D. Tax Where the Money Is!

Payroll is Where the Money Is

An 8% payroll tax increase affecting all workers would provide $15.3 trillion over ten years.
Bernie Sanders proposed Medicare for All would cost about $33.3 trillion.
More Tax Increases Required.

  The Math Problem That Could Sink the Bernie/AOC Agenda
See The First-Ever Social Security Check?

A women named Fuller paid a total of $24.75 of payroll taxes for three years.
In the 35 years after her retirement, she received $22,888.92 in benefits.

Do low income retirees with dependents
appreciates what a good investment return
 they may receive from social security?


People Want More Taken from the Rich

See Taxation Philosophies

Those Who Do Not Pay Corporate Taxes Should Not be Guarantee Federal Law Protection


Super Rich Do Have Lots More Money



Do the rich pay lower taxes than the poor?


The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – David Leonhardt, New York Ti
What the NYT Didn’t Tell You – Robert Verbruggen, National Review

Early Tax Proposals
A 10 percent surtax on the top 1/10 of the top one-percent
" Our preliminary estimate is that such a surtax
would raise roughly $75 billion in its first year of implementation
 and roughly $800 billion in its first decade.
source EPI

First Proposal from Ocasio-Cortez proposed 70 percent marginal income tax rate
 on $10 million and over to finance her Green New Deal
 affects 16,000 people with  income of $245 billion.
 It would
raise $164-382 billion over ten years.

Another calculation from "Mazur calculates that it could raise $720 billion over the next decade,
affecting 0.05% of the US population (around 16,000 households),
although the estimate is likely to be much smaller
because of the changing behavior of the millionaires."

Another Proposal from Warren's team says her "wealth tax,"
which would apply to people with more than $50 million in assets,
is projected to raise $2.75 trillion over a decade.
This is an estate tax.

A Trump proposal requiring the chained CPI to inflation-adjust the official poverty line would,
over time, lower increases to the poverty line used to qualify for means-tested federal programs.

President Barack Obama’s (failed) 2013 proposal to apply chained CPI to Social Security benefits,
Protections for extremely low-income elderly people were provided. Source: Washington Post
Editor's note: Forty years ago protectors of the SS fund tried to do this.

See Taxes, Socialism, And Class War
Are Billionaires Fat Cats or Deserving Entrepreneurs? but 
Billionaires take more than they make.
Center for Popular Economics
source one-picture economics


E. Attitudes Toward Taxes

Companies Use Bonus in Place of More Permanente Raises

Just one more reason to be careful when using
economic data for political economy analysis.


Middle Households Helped Least


F. Would Rich Pay?

Editor's Note: Historically Very rich pay the very educated to avoid taxes.

Would Boxers Box, Musicians Play, Actors Act?



Would Hedge Managers Hedge Like They Did Last Decade?

Would a Wealth Tax Slow Economic Growth?

Most of this Wealth Created With Government t Sponsored Technology.


We Spent Billions to Keep Them Hedging Beginning in 2007

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Who We Owe, Why We Borrow
Meet Our Creditors
1. US Citizens and US Government Owns Most of the Debt

2. Is Foreigners US Debt Ownership a Problem?
U.S. Buys Cars, Wine, Electronics ...
Foreigners Get $ and Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Japan Tried to Buy US Assets, Paid Way Too Much, then Stopped.
So U.S. Get Good Stuff at Low Prices,
Foreigners Mostly get U.S. Government IOU's.


When We Borrowed

1. Borrowing Began With the Revolution

Image result for Federal Debt graphs

2. Mostly it was War

3. Human Needs Were Added
by Hoover and FDR During
Great Depression and Continued with LBJ
Bush 2 and Obama continuing.

4. Recessions Caused Deficits as Revenue Drops
Nominal Growth Historically Cured Deficit

Obama continued the Bush policy of fighting the Great Recession with debt
and by 12/16 it was apparent that this policy had worked better than Europe's austerity policies.


Who Paid the Federal Debt

 1. Total Stays the Same

end table?
End of
Fiscal Year
US Gross Debt
in Nominal USD billions
US Gross Debt as % of GDP Question Answer
1940 43.0 52.4 No One
1950 257.4 94.1
1960 290.2 56.1
1970 389.2 37.6
1980 930.2 33.3 No One
1990 3,233 55.9
2000 5,674 58 TBD
2005 7,933 64.6
2007 9,008 65.5
2008 10,699.8 74.6 (EST)
2009           11,046.2   TBD
United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2. Who Finances Deficit Rollovers?

3. Trump's Unorthodox Tax Cut Step #1 of Trouble?
In an Already Expanding Economy
Really High Nominal Growth Will Be Needed



Entitlements Pose a Problem

Summary Definition Who Benefits from Most to Least Problems


Medicare Subsidized healthcare
for the elderly
All benefit are the same, high income earners pay most Required additional health care cost difficult for many

Longer life especially for poor people who now also have subsidized health care will increases cost. Free cases poorer health. Solutions, later eligibility, less coverage, higher deductibles currently not acceptable to electorate.

Social Security Retirement income, partial at 62, max at 70, Low income earners receive ha higher investment return, some receive death and spousal benefits See  Table 1 and  Table 3 Deficit concerns until baby boomers die, retirement age raised or young people vote.
SS Benefits are 100% Secure bur their real value depends on economic success..
Solution just time or later retirement but politicians will not act until forced by electorate Increased negative cash flow should add political pressure.
Tax Expenditures Legal deductions and exemptions from income decrease tax collections Employee sponsored health insurance,401K, long-term capital imputed rental income, mortgage interest, earned income tax credits, deferred income from controlled foreign corporations Table 2 Tax payers don't appreciate
 their benefit (entitlements?)
Solution of decreasing them by a third is unacceptable to electorate though this would have increase tax collections $400 billion in 2015 when the deficit was $439 billion.

When forced to, politicians will sole the problem with the least possible pain.


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Measured Poverty Has Changes Little

See Why Poverty is Controversial?  


BUT After the Safety Net
Poverty is Down to 4.8% Over Fifty Years 




This chart "...provides a first approximation of how correcting the 2013 poverty rate for noncash food and housing benefits, refundable tax credits, and not using the upward [inflation] bias of the CPI-U would change the 2013 poverty rate. This adjusted poverty rate falls from 14.5 to 4.8 percent, making the 2013 rate roughly a quarter of the 1964 rate (19.0 percent). If we were to lower the poverty threshold for cohabiting couples to match that for married couples the 2013 poverty rate would have fallen even more." Examples of noncash benefits include food stamps SNAP), discounted school lunches, subsidized rent, Medicaid, and Medicare. See Source Editors Comments are in red.



Work is Not Encouraged as Real Minimum Wage Falls
Unintended Consequence of Safety Net Increases?



Government Support Increased Prices

Return to Index Please Share!



Skilled Medical/Profession Workers Were the Big Winner



Learn About

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Conservatism vs. Progressivism
as see through the eyes of George Will

"We hold these truths to be self-evident,
that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. —
That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men,
deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..."

American Conservatism:
Preserve the Founders Thinking
as custodians of the classical liberal tradition.

Rights are natural. They preexist acts of human will and can not be nullified by such acts. Therefore if rights are natural, so to is government limited and government's main purpose is to "secure these rights."

Human nature is permanent and statesmanship is to develop a political system that is conducive to and in accord with the nature of humans.

Progressivism: Everything is in flux with various human natures. Human nature that is always in a state of becoming and statesmanship is the understanding and directing of shaping forces.

Today's Conflict: 
Conservatives want the Founder's Thinking Preserved, Progressives want
directing of society's shaping forces.

Source: Conservative Sensibility

Classical Liberalism : the creative arena of human affairs is society which is distinct from government whose proper function is to protect life/liberty primarily for the individual's private pursuit of happiness. Now called Conservatisms, it is the Jeffersonian spirit of Democratic.

New Deal Progressivism of FDR saw society changing with the industrial revolution. A Progressive, he believed in a changing human nature. He expanding government beyond providing conditions for perusing happiness to providing economics rights to supplement Political Rights.

Determining the final arbiter is always contested.
Men say it's them, Relegion say it's God.
Who is the final arbiter on economic rights?
For now it is the Supreme Court

Managerial Progressives of the 1960's believed policy elite managers would direct government operations from above and end the business cycles. 


Our Fundamental Constitutional Divide

Conservatives Want a Republic Constitution

First Comes Rights, Then Comes Government

"We the People" Viewed as Individuals
where majority can lose if Judicial Review
determines an action impedes a fundamental right.


Progressives Want a Democratic Constitution

First Comes Governments then Comes Rights

We the People Viewed as One Group
where majority rules and Judicial Review
can not impede majority desires.

The Constitution was Designed to put checks and Balances on Majority Rule and as time as passed, the fear of anarchy from majority rule as lessened.

Federal Government Responsibilities
A Brief US Political History Defining Federal Problem was Problem Disposition
From the Founding to Civil War Legitimacy in Relations to States FED's Superior
Civil War to New Deal Power Limits to Federal Operations Deficits
New Deal to Recently Meet Needs of all Constituencies Deficits Do Not Matter
Today Making Appropriate Collective
 Long term Choices
Voters Not Interested in
Delayed Gratification
In response to Hamilton's desire for national direction for economic development,
Madison foresaw an Administrative state which would
damage Federalism by
claiming responsibilities belonging to state and local governments and the resulting
 increase in new responsibilities. It would then expand its limited powers by moving power
from legislative branch to the executive department. 

Thoughts from James .Q. Wilson, American academic, political scientist,
and an authority on public administration

as reported by George Will in The Conservative Sensibility

The Judicial Supervision Difficulties of Democracy
Counter Majoritarian Difficulty

In U.S. Federalism, Governing is Divided between the Sates and the Federal Government
Federal Government, Responsibilities are divided among the Legislature, the Executive and the Supreme Court

Declaration of Independence

Goal: Secure Unalienable Rights

Affirmed Natural Right of the Individuals

Implies Democracy

Limits to Majority Rule

United States Constitution

Define Constructed Rights of the Community
to Make Laws the Majority Deems
Necessary and Proper.

Created Tension

Majority Rule is Limited
and Moderated
 by the Constitution

Joining a community requires giving up a share of liberty and Supreme Court must protect the natural rights of  liberty.

The Legislature writes the laws, the Executive administers laws
 and the Supreme Court protects Unalienable Rights.


Election 2020 Question Possibilities

Basic Income Information


More Civility Data

A. Engagement with “Fake News” on Facebook is Declining
The National Bureau of Economic Resources measured the diffusion of fake news stories on Facebook and Twitter between 1/15 and 7/18. False content rose steadily on both Facebook and Twitter through the end of 2016 but dropped by measurably from Facebook but not for twitter.

B. Politically  “teams” will accumulate grievances..."
"...lose any interest in communicating across party lines."

"This happened in the 1850s: We know what happened..."
 "Things...could get plenty bad..."  with a "...serious recession or the stock market..." crash. "

and ... as a nation we are no longer capable of making preparations for such events."

  "Political Polarization: The Rise and Decline of America's Postwar Political Order"

Editors Note: With democracy, very difficult to sacrifice before the pain. Think WW1  WW2  Gilded Age Greed




C. U.S. Supreme Court Job Approval Rating Ties Record Low

Trend: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?

It's Political

Trend: Supreme Court Job Approval, by Political Party

D. Individual Behavior Norms Are Expanding


Legality of Behavior Norms Also Up


Attitude Toward Abortion Unchanged

Public views of abortion: 1995-2018

Why the Difference?
It's About Relegion!


It's About Politics

There is a substantial partisan and
ideological divide on abortion
with Democrats
much more likely than Republicans
to say it should be legal in all or most cases.

This gap is even larger between liberal Democrats
 and conservative Republicans:
Nearly nine-in-ten liberal Democrats (88%) say abortion
should be legal in all or most cases, compared with only
about three-in-ten self-described conservatives in the GOP (27%)

It's enhanced by

Roe v. Wade
Poisoned Our Politics

Michael Barone New York Post

Today’s “partisan chaos” is a direct result of Roe v. Wade,
said Michael Barone. The all-out war over Brett Kavanaugh’s
appointment to the Supreme Court would not be so heated if
people on both sides didn’t think Roe might be at stake.

In 1973, 16 states with 41 percent of the nation’s population
had already liberalized their abortion laws
and America would have had different laws in different regions,
depending on the democratic process.
But then seven justices delivered “an unusually sweeping”
ruling that made abortion legal in almost all circumstances

and the country’s defining wedge issue.

While public opinion on cultural issues like same-sex marriage
has shifted markedly this century, “opinion on abortion has
scarcely budged.”

It’s hard to win converts on such a fundamentally moral issue
about “the way people live their lives”: Pro-choicers,
who are largely secular, think their “personal autonomy”
is at stake, whereas pro-lifers, who are mostly religious,
believe abortion amounts to “extinguishing human lives.”

Rather than settle the abortion debate, Roe inflamed it
because neither side believes it can afford any compromise
As a direct result, every Supreme Court nominee battle
has literally become a matter of life and death.


2020 Election Info: U.S. and China Are Geopolitical Political Rivals?

U.S. Has a Strong Geopolitical Position
Power and Global Disorder 22 min video 11/8/18
Peter Zeihan

1. Largest strip of high-quality arable land in the world

2. Most Navigable Waterways in the world

3. Control best parts of a continent with moats on either side

4. If US trading system breaks down, US suffers the least!  

5. Trade subsidizes the Global system so NAFTA must work.

6. US is delusional  when thinking China is the next super power.
    She has only managed to hold together for 300 years.

Water, Energy, Soil and Food--and a Shared National Purpose Matter

Requirements for Success

U.S very good Geography that is productive and well protected.

Economically Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending and mature members earning and investing.
US doing well as baby boomers had the Millennials.
Financial burden of the US is relatively small as baby boomer demographic will end while China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain now have the highest tax paying work force. Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic regeneration. French and New Zeeland may have a favorable demographic. The others are "terminal countries."

Happening faster because Obama did less than expected.
He acted as if he did not want to have conversations with people.
Near the end he new how important factors were interconnected.
How well is China's economy working.
Why Russia interfered with the election system.
Solar energy needs a backup.
What a good tax policy would look like.

But Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment to some policy.
Which is worse? Actually, he is following a neoconservative policy.

US has forced an acceleration of world player adjustments.
1. Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates.
2. China's needs US managing World security to maintain rapid growth.
3. Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, China will fall apart.

Withdrawing as world's protector means
Containing China
is Japans concern.
Containing Iran a is concern for Turkey/Saudis.
Nukes could be used, but not against the U.S. as no, one except Russia, is a nuclear concern.
Containing Korean delivery of nukes is a South Korean/Japanese worry.

Editor's Question: Is US as protector a requirement for US business and finance to control the world?
Factors Indicating a New International Order
See Videos Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018
The Accidental Superpower and
The Absent Superpower

Responding to China: A Strategic Plan
U.S.-China Relations in 2019 video
  Kevin Rudd


U.S. Government Not Designed for Governmental Grand Strategies
a. Separation of powers requires compromise.
b. Many want limited government.
c. Private Sector Renewals solve problems.

Recent Exception After WW 2
a. The 1946 Long Telegram described a very aggressive Soviet Union.
b. A 40-year multi-administration policy of containment resulted.
c. It worked-The Cold War ended peacefully

Containment Success
a. Fragility of Soviet economy and society caused implosion from within.
b. China is very different.

Trump Would Say We Have a Strategic Policy
1. National Security Strategy issued in 12/17
2. National Defense Strategy issued in 1/18
3. Future of US Defense Manufacturing Industry issued mid 2018

US Strategic Plan

Era of Strategic Engagement Replaced by Strategic Competition
a. Engagement-you engage and one side backs down.

b. Competition is more adversarial but no US guidelines given.

c. Rules to be determined

Washington's Latest Attitude Toward China Not Positive.
a. It makes any kind of convergence of societies difficult.

b. McCarthyism in U.S. and Australia is not good Foreign Policy.

Geopolitical Factors for Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping will resist any forces: economic, social, political, or foreign challenges to the long-term survival of the Communist Party.

b.  Assistant Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a strong-man and long-time party member, move toward markets rankling some politburo bureau members.

Well Conceived Grand Strategy
a) Based on a clearly defined policy purposes

b) Situations are through, observe in detail in relation to historical trends

c) Set a new direction

Recent Changes

a)  Communist Party and Ideology was enhanced
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
b) Ideological Confidence has increased.

c) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

d) China to Lead/Improve Global Government Reform


2020 Election Info: Trump's Grade Report

Update 8/21/19

Keeping Promises is why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.

Love him or hate him, Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality—
or at least making the case that he tried:

  • Conservative Supreme Court justice?  double-check.
  • Tax cuts? Check, weighted toward corporations rather than the middle class.
  • Gut regulations Check.
  • Crack down on illegal immigrants check, despite his failure to build a wall. 
  • Tariffs on China? Check.
  • Declaring China a currency manipulator? Check.
  • Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal? Check.
  • Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pacific Rim trade deal? Check.
  • Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. Pending congressional approval.
Failed Promises
  • He promised in a 2016 interview, wipe out the national debt in eight years.
  • He promised great wall," and inflates the mileage mixing replacements with new construction.
  • He promised Mexico would pay, failed.
  • He promised repeal Affordable Care Act and would give amazing health care to everyone. Failed
  • He promised to reverse trade deficits.  U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
  • Trump, pushed to end Afghanistan and with draw all U.S. troops failed
  • fallen short:
  • infrastructure and ending the Opioid crisis.
  •  drain the swam


Trump's New Geopolitical Era?

1. Three Main Forces Blowing Up Global Politics     2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs    4. Cultural Wars    Source Geopolitics

1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

 by Summary from editor  Walter Antoniotti   antonw@ix.netcom.co
Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to
Europe/Western Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions

contributed to these disruptions and caused  many to lash out in a tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended

Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

Disruptions Could Last Years
Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.

Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.


A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes  by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions.

3. Foreign Affairs

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Older Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source

U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision
B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political 
topic/lingua franca is important
C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step

E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts

4. Cultural Wars

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession  
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased
economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3)  threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
r Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.

“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics.
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy

A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source:
The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance

Understanding Right and Left Populism
Right populism
defines "the people" as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism 
2) refugees  
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...

Left populism defines “the people”
social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other
Right populism defines the enemy
in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state.
Left populism
defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and
workforce casualisation