Prelude: Bush 2 ignores Russia's support for the Iraq War and move Russia
from a rival to adversary. Putin rebuffs Obama's attempt to move be a rival
Russia back to rival status.
a contributing editor at The Atlantic
and the author of seven books. He
has traveled the length and breadth of Russia, both to report for
magazines and for his books, three of which concern Russia. He has lived
in Moscow since 1993, and outlined his proposal for a new detente between
the US and Russia in an essay for the web site Quillette called "The
Deal Trump Should Strike with Putin"
Paul Jay: Welcome to [Jeffrey
The Real News Network. I'm Paul Jay.
We're going to continue our analysis, coverage of the Comey affair, the
Russia affair and so on. All the furor has one underlying theme to it,
which is Russia is America's adversary. We hear the word 'adversary' over
and over and over again. It's as if everyone in every pendant that's on
television has gotten a playbook on how to describe Russia and the word is
'adversary.' We're told Russia is the adversary of America more or less
for two reasons. One, because domestically, he's a tyrant. Putin is
authoritarian and so on. Then internationally, he supports Assad in Syria,
who is the Bashar al-Assad. He's our adversary geopolitically in Ukraine
and so on
We want to dig into this issue of just why is Russia an adversary and what
is the meaning of it all? Now joining us from Moscow to discuss this is
Jeffrey is a contributing editor at The Atlantic and the author of seven
books. He's lived in Moscow since 1993.
Recently outlined his proposal for a new [inaudible 00:01:20] between the
U.S. and Russia on Quillette called
The Deal Trump Should Strike with Putin.
Thanks for joining us, Jeffrey.
Tayler: Thank you, Paul.
Paul Jay: Let's start with the first bucket of reasons. Why is Russia an
adversary? Let me contextualize this a bit. Assuming Putin is everything
he's accused of being by the Americans ... Authoritarian,
doesn't allow free elections, suppresses journalists.
He's been accused of being involved in killing journalists. He's been
accused of and I think there's pretty good evidence that he has committed
terrible acts, perhaps even war crimes, in Chechnya.
All that being said, if all of that's true ... Perhaps not all of it is
true. That has never stopped the United States from calling someone like
that an ally and a friend, starting with the Saudis and any number of
Latin American dictatorships and so on and so on, who frankly as far as I
can tell have committed far worse human rights violations in their
countries than what has gone on in Russia.
All that being said, let's just dig into that a bit first and then we'll
deal with some of the other aspects of this whole issue. Tell us just what
is the state of human rights in Russia? What is Putin's role in all this?
We talk a lot about Russian oligarchs. On The Real News at least, we also
talk about American oligarchs, but there is a Russian oligarchy. There is
a Russian state that's very powerful and Putin is very powerful. What is
the character of all that?
Jeffrey Tayler: Well I think that part of the characterization of the
situation here has to do with this
unfortunate innate Russian tendency to yearn for autocracy in some way or
They generally respect a strong ruler. That has its manifestations in
their history with Tsar and with the Soviet rulers afterwards. Nowadays if
we call Putin a tyrant and then the image of Stalin comes to mind, it's
very difficult to speak of Stalin and Putin in one breath. It's
impossible, really. The easy way to put it would be there are restrictions
there is a general sense that ... Enforced by law enforcement agencies
that Putin is the supreme figure for now.
He hasn't announced whether he's going to run next year, but it appears
that he will run in the presidential elections
fairly free speech on the internet.
Less free speech on the radio,
but basically there isn't much of any public criticism of Putin on the
airways. That aside, his popularity rating has stayed unusually high, over
80%, for I think it must be about a decade now after it dipped during the
Paul Jay: Are these reliable polls?
Jeffrey Tayler: Well they seem to be as reliable as they come. The main
polling agency with the Levada Center ... There's another one called
00:04:32] Both of their poll results seem to track with public sentiment
as best as I can feel it. I generally see Putin as being as popular as he
was. There are aspects of the system that are objective to, as you just
saw with the corruption anti-corruption protests a few weeks ago.
There are a few other issues of that sort, but the general sense is that
especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis and the takeover of
Crimea from Ukraine has been extremely popular.
That sent him through the roofs in terms of popularity because it put
Putin as the defender of ... In this case of Russian interests in the
Black Sea by taking over a historically Russian piece of territory, at
least from 1783 until 1954, when [inaudible 00:05:29] handed it over to
Kept NATO out of the region. With the expansion of NATO on Russia's
the sense of encirclement, that has been something that has driven Putin's
popularity rating, especially since 2014.
Paul Jay: Ordinary Russians aren't benefiting from the Crimea annexation.
Why do they care? Why does that make Putin more popular?
Jeffrey Tayler: Well the average Russian is something of a geopolitical
analyst in a way that Americans generally are not. They take a lot of
pride in their history. You know, the stories about the Soviet defeat of
Hitler in World War II. The repeated invasions that have come from the
west and that Russia has fought off.
This idea of Russia as a country is something that ... This idea of
spreading across 11 time zones is actually fairly strong.
It's a central uniting element in Russia, a central uniting political
element. It always has focused on one person. Even Yeltsin, when he had
his brief stint as a president with the vice president, Alexander Rutskoy
in the early 90s, found he had to basically accede to the Russian ... There
was anarchy when there was a vice president and a president. Both wanted
to be centers of power. Yeltsin ended up having to bomb his own parliament
to squelch that threat in 1993. Significantly, he did not kill his
opponent, who is alive and well today.
The elimination of killing as a means of dealing with political opponents
that began with Khrushchev in 1954, when Khrushchev began his term as
general secretary of the Soviet Communist Party continues. There was a
suppressed political dialogue here. As you know, now probably the most
potent defender of opposition figure to Putin would be [inaudible
00:07:39] It appears he's not going to be able to run next year, although
there is still no formal announcement from anybody on who is going to be a
candidate for the presidency.
Paul Jay: Those Yeltsin years of such chaos and when the oligarchs ran the
state, if I understand it correctly now, Putin ... The state more runs the
country than directly run by the oligarchs. That must have been a great
national embarrassment, I guess you could say, after decades ... As much
as many people didn't like the Soviet rule, though it's underestimated I
think how many actually did like it or later under Yeltsin became
nostalgic for the Soviet Union,
it must have been tremendously embarrassing to national psychology,
national dignity, to be seen as an American colony practically and in
Jeffrey Tayler: Yeah. That was when the expansion of NATO began under
Clinton, although George W. Bush had James Baker promise to [inaudible
00:08:39] that he wouldn't expand NATO when Germany was reuniting at the
end of the 1980s. That
is the national wound of the Yeltsin years or the national wound in effect
that allowed Putin to rise and people still, some people at least, still
remember the chaos of those years. They were years of hunger, of mass
demonstrations, of a freedom that Russians had not known before.
Living standards fell extremely after the fall of the Soviet Union. Under
for the first eight or nine years or so, very quickly and high with the
high price of oil.
People associate the stability still with Putin
and generally hope the stability continues, which is one reason why Putin
remains as popular as he does.
Paul Jay: Now deal with the issue of human rights, free and fair elections
and all of this. I have to say in the
United States, it's rather rich in hypocrisy
for the United States to be critiquing anybody's elections or interfering
in their elections, given how
the United States interferes in everybody's elections and how the
elections at home have this ... Often a real veneer of democracy, given
how the American oligarch can still control the outcome of American
simply because they have so much money to throw at it. That being said,
there's less veneer of democracy in the Russian elections, if I have it
correctly. Is that true?
Jeffrey Tayler: Yeah. People understand that. What the Russian approach
has generally been in limiting the candidate, when the candidates go out
on the trail. There will be four or five of them probably this coming
round. They will be ones who are essentially state-approved. The years of
the 1996 election, when Yeltsin's popularity was down to something like I
think it was five percent, yet he still won. That has not been repeated.
Putin won in 2000. He was appointed prime minister in 1999 and ran for
election in 2000 I think with 52% of the vote. Something like that. I
think it was a legitimate vote in favor of him, who was a sober young man
after the Yeltsin years.
Then Putin has maintained himself one way or another all the way until now
without really skipping a beat, except during the run up to the 2012
presidential elections, when the protest broke out over ... Not over
presidential elections at the time, but over the Duma election, the
parliament elections of December 2011. The results were contested.
Paul Jay: Right.
Jeffrey Tayler: The results stood, despite all the protests that lasted up
through his presidency.
There is far less democracy in Russia than in the United States, let's
say. On the other hand, if you live in downtown Baltimore, there isn't
There's a lot of façade of democracy in the United States,
but set that aside. Assuming he is an autocrat and so on and so on, as I
said in the beginning, that has
never stopped the United States from making autocrats friends.
If they actually care about such things, then Trump wouldn't visit with
his hands open to Saudi Arabia and so on. Any number of regimes. If it
isn't really about that, what is it about? Just why does the American, or
at least the majority of the American political military establishment,
why do they consider Russia such a rival?
It's not a geopolitical rival really. They have a lot of nuclear bombs, so
yes, there's a theoretical existential threat there. Yes, there's a
difference of interest in Syria. There's Ukraine. There's difference in
vying for influence and power in that whole ... All the regions bordering
Russia. Yes, but this is not a geopolitical rival. Certainly not the level
of China where economically, China is a real rival to the United States.
Anywhere from India to Brazil. What's it really about?
Well I think the default position for Americans is to look for an enemy in
That's what the military industrial complex was built to defend against.
Eisenhower warned about that as he was leaving office and Kennedy couldn't
get a handle on it. It appears to have grown steadily since then. As
you've pointed out in other broadcasts,
you don't need aircraft carriers to fight ISIS or any of the other
terrorist threats that occasionally pop up in the Middle East in the
United States. You do need all of these things to potentially confront
It seems like there are big financial interests and then there are also
the oil and gas interests that were in fact the reason that [inaudible
was thrown in prison in 2004. I believe he was talking with Exxon about
selling them large shares of Russia's oil industry at the time.
Russia had already been through a chaotic period where
Russian oligarchs controlled the oil industry and they weren't paying
taxes during the Yeltsin years.
That was causing a lot of delays with salaries and demonstrations and even
some riots here in Moscow.
There's a rivalry over the resources that Russia has,
which are obviously tremendous in gas and oil and all kinds of minerals.
Russia is a country that doesn't play all with the United States. Because
of its nuclear arsenal, there's only so far the United States is willing
There's this standoff that's existed pretty much since Putin began
reasserting control over the energy industry and the other resources that
the United States has interest in and it still does, but not in the
commanding way it had in the 90s.
Paul Jay: Maybe I'm naïve, but to think that Russia, for example, is
somehow going to what? Take over Europe, replace the American influence in
Europe? It seems ridiculous, but there was very interesting Wiki Leaks back
and forth between ... Which I think explains a lot of why there was a war
in Libya, which had I believe it was the
American ambassador in either
[inaudible 00:15:22] or Rome talking about how
Gazprom was using the Italian oil company.
I believe it was ... I have maybe the major oil and gas concession in
Libya. The gas problem was going to actually take over that concession,
but it would still look like an Italian company.
The Wiki Leaks cable from the U.S. ambassador says Gazprom is using the
Italians as stocking horse to "tighten the energy noose around Europe."
This is the language of seeing Russia as a really aggressive power. The
way I think they mischaracterize the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was
never marching into Europe, but they acted that way. It sounds like they
really internalized this stuff. It's not just a convenient argument. They
really seem to see Russia as this kind of a rival that could somehow vie
for influence in Europe or power in Europe.
Jeffrey Tayler: Well the Soviet Union did occupy ... Did set up the
people's republics from Bulgaria through Poland. There was a presence in
Europe, but at the time, the pipeline if you remember was being built
during the Regan [inaudible 00:16:36] era.
Regan was warning the Europeans not to get their energy from Russia
because Russia would then theoretically
... The Soviet Union would then theoretically be able to
Russia and the
Soviet Union need the revenues
from oil and gas. They have a lot of it.
pursue their interests I think as aggressively as anybody.
As I remember, when the decision was being made about whether to intervene
H. Clinton recommended to Obama that the United States presented this no
fly zone, if you remember that's what they called it, right after meeting
with oil industry executives. It may well be that cable that was not known
in 2011 that in fact turned her and
made her decide that we had to get in there and disrupt any kind of
Russian plans to expand into Libya.
Paul Jay: It's ironic because eventually I think
Obama negotiated a deal with the Russians and actually said, "If you help
us get rid of Gaddafi, you can keep your deal."
That's exactly what happened. The Russians actually changed his position
and said, "It's time for Gaddafi to go." In the end, Gazprom (Russian Oil
Trust) if I understand it correctly kept that deal and did wind up having
access to a lot of Libyan oil and gas.
Jeffrey Tayler: Well actually,
Putin was pulling the strings
at the time, even though [inaudible 00:17:59] was there.
Paul Jay: Yeah, that's what I assumed. Yeah.
Jeffrey Tayler: Right.
Putin did not approve of the overthrow of Gaddafi
and was upset at the time with his president. Strange to say. [inaudible
00:18:15] for agreeing to the no fly zone because look what happened to
Gaddafi. The implication is clear, that
Putin wants to maintain state order with ... State leader that he can deal
with as he does in Syria with Assad rather than have factions and groups
and the chaos that's in Libya now.
Paul Jay: The real problem for the again majority of the American elites,
I think the
Trump section of the elites is very based in fossil fuel and it's in their
interest to normalize things with Russia and Putin to really open up
access to the fossil fuel,
American fossil fuel capital to get out of it, which is why Tillerson is
so interested in ...
Tillerson got this friendship prize from Putin and all this.
For the rest of the
other than the narrative that serves the
which is clearly an important piece of it ... They
have decades invested in Russia phobia
in order to justify arms manufacturing.
It is also that they would like to
go back to the good old days.
What I mean by that is of Yeltsin, where you have chaos, where you don't
have such a strong central state and
where the Western oligarchs have more access to the riches of Russia,
especially oil and other things. Not through accommodation, but through
destabilizing Russia because they don't want to deal with a state that can
stand up to them.
Jeffrey Tayler: Yeah. I think that's true.
Russia has no need of the U.S. security guarantees in the way that the
Saudis and gulf states do.
Russia is a rival and it's a country that won't buckle under to U.S.
pressure. I think that's what in essence drives so much of the animosity,
at least in senior political ranks of the United States. As long as Russia
has its nuclear arsenal and control over its territory, there seems to be
no way to force it to submit to the
kind of deals that the United States would want that were very, very
favorable during the Yeltsin years.
Paul Jay: There seems to be enough ... Other than normal partisan
politics, the fact that Trump wants to do this energy play and come to
accommodation with Russia. Perhaps it also fits into his [Trump's]
geopolitical strategy, which is global warrior against Islamic terrorism
and Bannon's global warrior against Islamic fascism.
If you can at least neutralize or diminish tensions with Russia, if not
even engage them in that. Certainly
Russia wants to get engaged against ISIS and Syria and other places.
In fact, they seem more interested in actually fighting that war than the
Americans have been.
There's a lot of convergence of interest here on the Trump side,
but on the other side, the deep-seated interest in either keeping the
cold war narrative going or somehow destabilizing Russia seems
to be more important to those elites than even the kind of alliance that
we needed in Syria.
Jeffrey Tayler: Yeah. I think it's a mistake for a couple of reasons. The
first is that when the United States and Russia were cooperating just
after the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a lot of goodwill on the
part of Russians here.
expansion of NATO
in four major waves through the 90s and the 2000s
changed that situation.
Now Russians who are not hostile to Americans as people would see the
United States as a definite rival. That was obviously the case with Obama
and of course with Bush and Cheney in the latter years of the Bush
presidency, especially. There's no reserve of goodwill to draw on.
There's no way to put a new Yeltsin into Russia and let him ransack the
country in the way that actually his elite did in the 90s. That just won't
Russians are returning to their default position, which is to fall in line
behind a strong leader and the dissenting voices are not heard or
Paul Jay: All right. Thanks, Jeffrey. We're carrying on this conversation.
I'm sure we'll do it many times. Thanks for joining us.
Jeffrey Tayler: Thank you, Paul.
Paul Jay: Thank you for joining us on The Real News Network.
Makes Me Nervous
Lawmakers in the U.S. Congress are again putting Moscow’s
Nord Stream 2 pipeline in hopes of boosting U.S. energy exports to Europe.
natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany Baltic Sea are about the only
thing that could kill the project Whether U.S. natural gas will
be able to make up the difference is in question..
On 7/18, Republican Sens. John Barrasso and Cory Gardner introduced
a bill that would make mandatory U.S. sanctions
on companies building the Nord Stream pipeline. The bill also
streamline U.S. exports of natural gas.
Separately, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez will introduce a new bill
strengthen existing sanctions on Russian energy.
Western European energy firms are helping Russia’s Gazprom to build the
pipeline which Germany has long supported.
The pipeline, which would double the amount of natural gas shipped
directly from Russia to the heart of Europe, largely bypassing middleman
Ukraine which earns billions of dollars annual and gets some
insurance against again being deprived of energy supplies.
Construction. workers began laying pipes off the German coast in the
Baltic Sea this spring.
Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S.
A Pseudo Conversation between John Kerry and Ukraine Leaders
The latest batch of sanctions
imposed on 8/10/18 will be of
little practical effect but a second round of harder-hitting sanctions
if Russia fails to make certain assurances on chemical weapons.
Trump has already expelled 60 diplomats and closed a Russian consulate
in Seattle, agreed to provide lethal weaponry to Ukraine in
Kiev’s fight against Russian-backed separatists, signed into law sanctions designed to punish Russia
for meddling in the 2016 election. Trump came into office considering rolling back Obama's
sanctions, rather than imposing new ones. Yet the punishments keep
piling up on his watch.
"How is this administration taking
tough actions on Russia while the president actively avoids them?
That’s the question everyone is trying to answer."