Russia, China, U. S.
Rivals, Adversaries, Enemies

Rivals Play by the Same Rules, Adversaries Have No Rules, Enemies Fight
Decision Required!

1. American Lies, a Betrayal of Russia?

2. China Today and Tomorrow
See Understanding China of Today
a required foreign policy prima

3. Trump's Trade Policy
See 21st Century Free Trade Analysis
Misconceptions Concerning US-China Trade

4. Yalta Created a U.S. Managed World

5. Post WW2 International Growth and
the Rise of Populism

6. Creation a New International Order

7. 21st Century Foreign Policy

See Trading Blows: The US-China Trade video

    12/26/18    editor W Antoniotti          return to Economic Issues   Please link to and Share.
 

 

You Should Know
A “Cyber-attack” on China

Despite encouraging signs in the US-China trade war,
we’re watching for a possible US escalation against suspected Chinese hacking
 after revelations of a massive Beijing-sponsored infiltration of the US hotel chain Marriott.
 In coming days, the US may claim China has violated the cyber-espionage agreement
Chinese President  Xi Jinping made with ... Obama.
An indictment of Chinese security service workers as the hackers would be
 a significant escalation in the broader US-China standoff over cyber-security. GZERO

A Bigger Problem?
Loss of Exorbitant Dollar Privilege

 

Summary 1

Real News Network

U.S. Lies Betray Russia?
A Liberal Blames Conservatives

Prelude:
Bush 2 ignores Russia's support for the Iraq War and moves Russia from a rival to adversary. Putin rebuffs Obama's attempt to move Russia back to rival status.

Trump's initial batch of sanctions imposed on 8/10/18 will be of little practical effect but a second round of harder-hitting sanctions looms if Russia fails to make certain assurances on chemical weapons. Trump has already expelled 60 diplomats and closed a Russian consulate in Seattle, agreed to provide lethal weaponry to Ukraine in Kiev’s fight against Russian-backed separatists, signed into law sanctions designed to punish Russia for meddling in the 2016 election. Trump came into office considering a roll back Obama's Russian sanctions, rather than imposing new ones. Yet the punishments keep piling up on his watch.

"How is this administration taking tough actions on Russia while the president actively avoids them? That’s the question everyone is trying to answer".

Author Jeffrey Tayler is a contributing editor at The Atlantic and the author of seven books. He has traveled the length and breadth of Russia, both to report for magazines and for his books, three of which concern Russia. He has lived in Moscow since 1993, and outlined his proposal for a new detente between the US and Russia in an essay for the web site Quillette called "The Deal Trump Should Strike with Putin" We ended the Cold War by lying to Russia. They remember.

1. Putin's political activities reminds one of the early Cold War CIA and FBI activities.

2. Control of Russian resources  from 1991-1989 went to Russian and Western Oligarchs under Boris Yeltsin .

3. Putin is popular because he ended the chaos under Yeltsin, returned resource control to the state, and his popular management of the Ukrainian crisis and Russian Crimean activates to reverse the 1954 Supreme Soviet
transfer of 
Crimea to Ukraine.
Editor's Note:
 Author Taylor used the words handed over with no explanation of process.

4. Russia being our enemy is a default position created and managed by our military industrial complex.

5. Obama traded control of Libyan oil for free access to Gaddifi.

6. Russia wants to be engaged against ISIS more than the American.

7. Trump's pro Russia Middle East attitude battles the deep-seated Cold War interest of the U. S. Intelligence Community.

8. Trust but verify because this
makes me nervous.

9. Readings
 

See Is Russia the "Adversary" of the US?

Summary 3. Trump's Russian Politics

1. ABC Australia ABC Videos

Follow the money

Secrets, spies, and useful idiots

Moscow Rules

2. Real News Report on Trump-O-Tics
6 audios

Is Trump Betraying the American People? 1/6

How Has Trump’s Working Class Rhetoric Compared to His Policies? 2/6

Will Putin Support Trump’s Plans for Iran? 3/6

How Have Liberals Used Russiagate to Further American Exceptionalism? 4/6

Does Russia Benefit If The U.S. Is Weak? 5/6

How is Russia Being Used to Undermine the Left? 

 

See Why Trump Won-Trade

Foreign Policy Failures
 Russian Motivation Important
Source: Ian Bremmer: What is Motivating Putin?
Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs


1. Putin's Motivation
Reacting to U.S. pushing NATO Eastward,
Additions to missile defenses,
Energy Diversification away from carbon
Moving stuff to Europe, Not Russia from Capiar
Fostering coup in Ukrain

Policy Benefits
Putin more popular
Russians more likely to sacrifice after Putin power move in Syria
Some benefits went to China

Policy Cost

Failed to foster US interest
Russian cyber crime can do much harm Western Banking Systen
Policy Benefits
Putin more popular
Russians more likely to sacrifice after Putin power move in Syria
Some benefits went to China

Policy Cost

Failed to foster US interest
Russian cyber crime can do much harm Western Banking Systen
 

3. Recommended Policy Guide
Self Interest guides policy
Understanding Foe's Motivation
maximizes success
US Media, Intellectuals and Government won't understand Russia

4. Ukraine key to Putin's military supply chain
problems and US forcing expensive relocations'
is similar to Russia puting missiles in Cuba.

 

Summary 2

2. China Today and Tomorrow
China Today and Tomorrow
A Concise Business View
Eurasia Group's Dr. Ian Bremmer

GZERO

What China's Done Right

1. Maintained stability without Western

expectation of needed political reform.

2. Building World Infrastructure helps them

join US as a leading influential world power.

3. Technology Ability substantially replaced

steeling technology due to government

and private investment.

What China's done wrong

1.High consumer and government sponsored debt, especially for
 inefficient government sponsored corporations which primary value is providing job.

2. Government control of economy means it owns blame for economic failures like  environmental problems like pollution, lack of water and arguable land, cyber attacks
3. Lost low profile on trade growth as first Trump and now Europe, are tighter trade controls and Chinese foreign investment. Much will depend on Xi Jinping’s success

 

Ian's Discussion With


former Australian Prime Minister

Kevin Rudd 4/18 video
See Latest Video from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18

Is China's President Xi Jinping
under increased domestic pressure?

1. Recent Internet criticism from an academic has stayed on line for a week. his is very unusual  though party leaders being on a vacation/retreat may be relevant.

2. Xi has more pressure than three months age.
He under estimated Trump's strong stance and resolve regarding trade liberalization. Surprised by Europe's willingness to join US trade restrictions and Chinese Foreign Investment limitations.

3. He has been very aggressive when dealing with international questions.

4, The Cult of personality around Xi has received Internet questioning.

Analysis:
Trumps China Foreign Policy

Positive: Trump has forced internal Chinese discussions concerning their pro-Chinese mercantilist policies.

However, the lack of an apparent trade war exit policy is troublesome. Especially if China is forced to save face1 with an increased nationalist policy centering on stronger security …

Obama main success was involving China in the Paris environmental discussions.

A future surprise may be US reaction to Chinese involvement close to U.S. boarders

Where is China going?
1. Unilateral Local Sphere of Influence
with no U.S. interference.
2. Promenade Indispensable Economic Partner
to much of world.
3. Lead Global Economic Reform

Probability of Success
A core question concerns their inability to solve a proposed 2013 problem related to government sponsored corporate inefficiency. This will hurt productivity and maybe growth. Solution was delayed  for political reasons.  Xi wants continue in control. This is an additional problem to the usual developing nation problems related to environment concerns, civil unrest, and rigidity of a one-power state … See
Trump’s Australian refugee dilemma   
Factchecking Trump on Australia refugees  
Trump's Treatment of Australia
Understanding China under Xi Jinping

Xi-pledges-$60-billion-in-financing-for-Afric


Future

1. Anti-corruption has spread across economic and political classes allowing key Xi to control important agencies.

2. Success variables
a.
Undue or live with developmental damage.
b. Develop manageable relations with other strong nations

3. Paramount Goal Maintaining party control is always first

 

Understanding the US/China Relationship

Shouldn't Based on Trade

Reform Contradictions Facing
China's New Leadership, Yukon Huang

 


 

 

China's Reaction

Editor's Note:
Devaluation is the traditional method of enhancing trade. Germany uses it as her economy is supported by a weak Euro.

See Trading Blows: The US-China Trade video

Pacific Trade Deal

Eleven countries signed a Comprehensive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), defying barely-disguised efforts by the Trump administration to kill the treaty. A vanguard of Japan, Singapore, Mexico, Australia, Canada and New Zealand activated the treaty over the weekend, ripping down barriers to trade in almost all goods. It eliminates 18,000 tariffs and slashes others in stages over coming years.

3. Trump's Trade Policy

Trump Leaves Xi No Room to Make a Trade Deal Kevin Rudd video
See Latest Video from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18

Summary

Trump trade negotiators use extremely difficult tactics for China to make deal. Until tactics change, there is little chance of Trump’ reaching his goals.

A crucial fact about modern China is as Xi adds to his power, economic and diplomatic success related to a prosperous future with boundless new opportunities became tied to his Cut of Personality.

Humiliating inflicted by a Western power would be a disaster and Xi must keep China’s economy growing, generating jobs and raising incomes. Some might believe this should encourage a trade agreement as U.S. tariffs slows economic activity.


 

4 Politics at Yalta
Began a Post War International Political Era

Prelude:
1648 Peace of Westphalia
Sovereignty of participants over their lands, people, and
agents abroad was established.
Broken by European Colonialism
 

1941 Atlantic Charter 
No spheres of influence, territorial self-determination required
 

First problem came immediately as Soviets did whatever it took
to keep Communists in charge of Poland.
 

The US responded with the Truman Doctrine eventually actions like the
U.S. and Britain sponsored covert activities like 9/8/53 
Iranian Coup.
 

 
 

Participants

Event

United States
FDR
Great Britain
Churchill
Soviet Union
Stalin
 
2/1945 Yalta Conference
Participants Wanted
Every Country has a Right to Manage their Own Affairs  
1. Sphere of Influence Exemptions Caribbean from 1823
Monroe Doctrine
British Empire Chuckled, said nothing,
knew he had troops in Easter Europe
 
2. Poland's Disposition
Logic:
Conceded Poland to Russia not announce to placate U.S. pro Polish Voters Russia Troops Controlled Poland Protect His Historical Image of Poland
19th Century Culture Important
Stop government in London sponsoring attacks on Soviet troops sponsored provisional government  
3. East Asia Russia's help with Japan after German defeated India remains colony, not a protectorate Island, some historically Russian, rights in Mongolia  
4. Germany West control as much as possible Same Parts of Eastern Prussia  
5. United Nations Set up basic governess received Same Veto Power over security council received  

In China’ the opposite is less dangerous and therefore more likely.

 

Totalitarian Government Seems to Create Conservatives
Who May be More Tolerant of Fascism.
Watching China in this regard is worthwhile c

2018 Begins A New International Order

First Draft 12/18/18

Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018 22 min video11/8/18

See book videos
The Accidental Superpower:

The Absent Superpower

Preface:
Peter bases his analysis on the US  no longer maintaining global order
which only existed too  win the now over for 25 years Cold War

Index

Designing a US Foreign Policy

Friends and Family Plan

A Strong U.S. Position

Requirements for Success

Expected Global Conflicts

Very Recent Changes

Designing a US Foreign Policy

Determining what we want requires

Fixing the Political Party System at a time when political parties are in a reinvention process
which last happened in the 1930's. It took 12 years.

Have a Conversation on replacing the Breton Woods trading system
which was designed to win the Cold War by fostering world trades.

Set a Foreign Policy Goals

Friends and Family Plan
Earn agreement of countries that are cultural and politically similar to US.
Canada, New Zeeland, United and probably Mexico

Earn agreements from a next group countries needing little maintenance
France, Japan, India, Thailand and some other southeast Asian countries 

TAKE IT or LEAVE IT message to Germany, China, Russia, Korea and say

A Strong U.S. Position

1. Largest strip of high-quality arable land in the world

2. Most Navigable Water ways in the world

3. Control best parts of a continent with moats on either side

4. If US trading system breaks down, US suffers the least! but

5. Trade is how we subsidized the Global system so getting NAFTA correct is important.

6. US delusion of China being the next super power,
    given she has only managed to hold together for 300 years, is amusing.

Requirements for Success

Geography that is productive and protected from outside forces
U.S very good , Georgia very bad

Economically Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending, mature members earning and investing
US doing well as baby boomers had kids, the Millennials
Financial burden of the US relatively small baby boomer demographic will end
China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain
have the highest tax paying work force they will ever have.
Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic regeneration.
The others are "terminal countries."
Few countries, maybe the French and New Zeeland have a favorable demographic

3. Ample energy to fuel the economy as dependency put a governor on grown

Doing this analysis was reported in Accidental Superpower/.

Expected Global Conflicts

Nuclear armed Russia, a seriously terminal country  is our biggest fear
and we should keep relations reasonable positive.
She is an economic and demographic tragic disaster and
will probably  not exist as a country within 40 years.
Bush 2 and Obama's Russian relations were criminally mishandled

Withdrawing as world's protector means little need to
contain China, that is Japans concern
contain Iran, that is Turkey and the Saudis concern

Nukes will be used but not against us as no one is close
to our equal except Russia, which is a US concern.

Korean nukes are only a delivery problem,
there existence is a South Korean/Japanese worry

Potential Conflicts
Persian Gulf between Iran and Saudis
Eurasian Fringe War with Russia vs. Germans, Poles, Scandinavians and Brits
Naval conflict between China, Japan S Korea and Taiwan as they try to keep themselves
fueled as middle east and Russian supplies become harder to come by.

Very Recent Changes

Happening faster because Obama did less than expected,
almost as if he did not want to have conversations with people.

Near the end he new how important factors were Interconnected.
How China's economy worked
Why Russia interfered with the election system,
Solar energy needs a backup
What a good tax policy would look like

Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment some policy
Which is worse?

US has forced a acceleration of adjustments by world players
Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates
Chinas need for  rapid growth while US still managing World security
Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, china fall apart.