from the Real News Network
American Lies to Betrayal of Russia
Prelude: Bush 2 ignores Russia's support for the Iraq War and move Russia from a rival to adversary. Putin rebuffs Obama's attempt to move be a rival Russia back to rival status.
Part 1 What
China's Done Right
China's President Xi
Jinping under increased domestic pressure?
has more pressure than three months age.
3. He has been very aggressive when dealing with international questions.
4, The Cult of personality around Xi has received Internet questioning.
Analysis: Trumps China Foreign Policy
Positive: Trump has forced internal Chinese discussions concerning their pro-Chinese mercantilist policies.
However, the lack of an apparent trade war exit policy is troublesome. Especially if China is forced to save face1 with an increased nationalist policy centering on stronger security Ö
Obama main success was involving China in the Paris environmental discussions.
A future surprise may be US reaction to Chinese involvement close to U.S. boarders
is China going?
Probability of Success
Trump trade negotiators use extremely difficult tactics for China to make deal. Until tactics change, there is little chance of Trumpí reaching his goals.
Summary 5 Politics at Yalta
No spheres of influence, territorial self-determination required
|Every Country has a Right to manage their own affairs|
|1. Sphere of Influence Exemptions||Caribbean from 1823 Monroe Doctrine||British Empire||Chuckled, said
knew he had troops in Easter Europe
2. Poland's Disposition
|Conceded Poland to Russia not announce to placate U.S. pro Polish Voters Russia Troops Controlled Poland||Protect
His Historical Image of Poland
19th Century Culture Important
|Stop government in London sponsoring attacks on Soviet troops sponsored provisional government|
|3. East Asia||Russia's help with Japan after German defeated||India remains colony, not a protectorate||Island, some historically Russian, rights in Mongolia|
|4. Germany||West control as much as possible||Same||Parts of Eastern Prussia|
|5. United Nations||Set up basic governess received||Same||Veto Power over security council received|
8 Jeffrey Tayler: Well the Soviet Union did occupy ... Did set up the people's republics from Bulgaria through Poland. There was a presence in Europe, but at the time, the pipeline if you remember was being built during the Regan [inaudible 00:16:36] era. Regan was warning the Europeans not to get their energy from Russia because Russia would then theoretically ... The Soviet Union would then theoretically be able to blackmail Europe. Russia and the Soviet Union need the revenues from oil and gas. They have a lot of it. They pursue their interests I think as aggressively as anybody. As I remember, when the decision was being made about whether to intervene in Libya, H. Clinton recommended to Obama that the United States presented this no fly zone, if you remember that's what they called it, right after meeting with oil industry executives. It may well be that cable that was not known in 2011 that in fact turned her and made her decide that we had to get in there and disrupt any kind of Russian plans to expand into Libya.
9. Paul Jay: It's ironic because eventually I think Obama negotiated a deal with the Russians and actually said, "If you help us get rid of Gaddafi, you can keep your deal." That's exactly what happened. The Russians actually changed his position and said, "It's time for Gaddafi to go." In the end, Gazprom (Russian Oil Trust) if I understand it correctly kept that deal and did wind up having access to a lot of Libyan oil and gas.
Jeffrey Tayler: Well actually, Putin was pulling the strings at the time, even though [inaudible 00:17:59] was there.10. Paul Jay: Yeah, that's what I assumed. Yeah.
Jeffrey Tayler: Right. Putin did not approve of the overthrow of Gaddafi and was upset at the time with his president. Strange to say. [inaudible 00:18:15] for agreeing to the no fly zone because look what happened to Gaddafi. The implication is clear, that Putin wants to maintain state order with ... State leader that he can deal with as he does in Syria with Assad rather than have factions and groups and the chaos that's in Libya now.11. Paul Jay: The real problem for the again majority of the American elites, I think the Trump section of the elites is very based in fossil fuel and it's in their interest to normalize things with Russia and Putin to really open up access to the fossil fuel, American fossil fuel capital to get out of it, which is why Tillerson is so interested in ... Tillerson got this friendship prize from Putin and all this. For the rest of the American ťlites, other than the narrative that serves the arms producer, which is clearly an important piece of it ... They have decades invested in Russia phobia in order to justify arms manufacturing. It is also that they would like to go back to the good old days. What I mean by that is of Yeltsin, where you have chaos, where you don't have such a strong central state and where the Western oligarchs have more access to the riches of Russia, especially oil and other things. Not through accommodation, but through destabilizing Russia because they don't want to deal with a state that can stand up to them.
. Paul Jay: Maybe I'm naÔve, but to think that Russia, for example, is somehow going to what? Take over Europe, replace the American influence in Europe? It seems ridiculous, but there was very interesting Wiki Leaks back and forth between ... Which I think explains a lot of why there was a war in Libya, which had I believe it was the American ambassador in either [inaudible 00:15:22] or Rome talking about how Gazprom was using the Italian oil company. I believe it was ... I have maybe the major oil and gas concession in Libya. The gas problem was going to actually take over that concession, but it would still look like an Italian company. The Wiki Leaks cable from the U.S. ambassador says Gazprom is using the Italians as stocking horse to "tighten the energy noose around Europe."This is the language of seeing Russia as a really aggressive power. The way I think they mischaracterize the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was never marching into Europe, but they acted that way. It sounds like they really internalized this stuff. It's not just a convenient argument. They really seem to see Russia as this kind of a rival that could somehow vie for influence in Europe or power in Europe.
Jeffrey Tayler: Yeah. I think that's true. Russia has no need of the U.S. security guarantees in the way that the Saudis and gulf states do. Russia is a rival and it's a country that won't buckle under to U.S. pressure. I think that's what in essence drives so much of the animosity, at least in senior political ranks of the United States. As long as Russia has its nuclear arsenal and control over its territory, there seems to be no way to force it to submit to the kind of deals that the United States would want that were very, very favorable during the Yeltsin years.12. Paul Jay: There seems to be enough ... Other than normal partisan politics, the fact that Trump wants to do this energy play and come to accommodation with Russia. Perhaps it also fits into his [Trump's] geopolitical strategy, which is global warrior against Islamic terrorism and Bannon's global warrior against Islamic fascism. If you can at least neutralize or diminish tensions with Russia, if not even engage them in that. Certainly Russia wants to get engaged against ISIS and Syria and other places. In fact, they seem more interested in actually fighting that war than the Americans have been. There's a lot of convergence of interest here on the Trump side, but on the other side, the deep-seated interest in either keeping the cold war narrative going or somehow destabilizing Russia seems to be more important to those elites than even the kind of alliance that we needed in Syria.
Jeffrey Tayler: Yeah. I think it's a mistake for a couple of reasons. The first is that when the United States and Russia were cooperating just after the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a lot of goodwill on the part of Russians here. The expansion of NATO in four major waves through the 90s and the 2000s changed that situation. Now Russians who are not hostile to Americans as people would see the United States as a definite rival. That was obviously the case with Obama and of course with Bush and Cheney in the latter years of the Bush presidency, especially. There's no reserve of goodwill to draw on. There's no way to put a new Yeltsin into Russia and let him ransack the country in the way that actually his elite did in the 90s. That just won't work anymore. Russians are returning to their default position, which is to fall in line behind a strong leader and the dissenting voices are not heard or suppressed.Paul Jay: All right. Thanks, Jeffrey. We're carrying on this conversation. I'm sure we'll do it many times. Thanks for joining us.
Jeffrey Tayler: Thank you, Paul.Paul Jay: Thank you for joining us on The Real News Network.
Editor's Note:What Makes Me Nervous
Lawmakers in the U.S. Congress are again Moscowís Nord Stream 2 pipeline in hopes of boosting U.S. energy exports to Europe. Sanctioe against the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany Baltic Sea are about the only thing that could kill the project. Whether U.S. natural gas will be able to make up the difference is in question. On 7/18, Republican Sens. John Barrasso and Cory Gardner introduced a bill that would make mandatory U.S. sanctions on companies building the Nord Stream pipeline. The bill also streamline U.S. exports of natural gas. Separately, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez will introduce a new bill strengthen existing sanctions on Russian energy. Neither bill has moved but on 8/29 Canadian courts halted the Trans Canadian pipeline. It gets cold in Europe.
Western European energy firms are helping Russiaís Gazprom to build the pipeline which Germany has long supported. The pipeline, which would double the amount of natural gas shipped directly from Russia to the heart of Europe, largely bypassing middleman Ukraine which earns billions of dollars annual, She would get some insurance against again being deprived of Russian energy supplies. Construction. workers began laying pipes off the German coast in the Baltic Sea this spring.
The latest batch of sanctions imposed on 8/10/18 will be of little practical effect but a second round of harder-hitting sanctions looms if Russia fails to make certain assurances on chemical weapons. Trump has already expelled 60 diplomats and closed a Russian consulate in Seattle. He agreed to provide lethal weaponry to Ukraine in Kievís fight against Russian-backed separatists and signed into law sanctions designed to punish Russia for meddling in the 2016 election.Trump came into office considering rolling back Obama's sanctions, rather than imposing new ones. Yet the punishments keep piling up on his watch.
"How is this administration taking tough actions on Russia while the president actively avoids them? Thatís the question everyone is trying to answer