Russia, China
 U. S. Rivals, Adversaries, Enemies?
Rivals Play by the Same Rules, Adversaries Have No Rules, Enemies Fight

1. American Lies a Betrayal of Russia?    2. China Today and Tomorrow     

3. Trump's Russian Politics      4 Politics at Yalta

5. Understanding China of Today a required foreign policy prima

6. Post WW2 International Growth and the Rise of Populism

    12/14/18    editor W Antoniotti          return to Economic Issues   Please link to and Share.
 

You Should Know
A “Cyber-attack” on China
– Despite encouraging signs of compromise in the US-China trade war,
we’re watching for a possible US escalation against suspected Chinese hacking after revelations of
 a massive Beijing-sponsored infiltration of the US hotel chain Marriott. In coming days, the US may claim
China has violated the cyber-espionage agreement Chinese President  Xi Jinping made with ... Obama.
That might lead to an indictment of hackers accused of working for Chinese security services,
 a significant escalation in the broader US-China standoff over cyber-security. GZERO

Summary 1

Real News Network

U.S. Lies Betray Russia?
A Liberal Blames Conservatives

Prelude:
Bush 2 ignores Russia's support for the Iraq War and moves Russia from a rival to adversary. Putin rebuffs Obama's attempt to move Russia back to rival status.

Trump's initial batch of sanctions imposed on 8/10/18 will be of little practical effect but a second round of harder-hitting sanctions looms if Russia fails to make certain assurances on chemical weapons. Trump has already expelled 60 diplomats and closed a Russian consulate in Seattle, agreed to provide lethal weaponry to Ukraine in Kiev’s fight against Russian-backed separatists, signed into law sanctions designed to punish Russia for meddling in the 2016 election. Trump came into office considering a roll back Obama's Russian sanctions, rather than imposing new ones. Yet the punishments keep piling up on his watch.

"How is this administration taking tough actions on Russia while the president actively avoids them? That’s the question everyone is trying to answer".

Author Jeffrey Tayler is a contributing editor at The Atlantic and the author of seven books. He has traveled the length and breadth of Russia, both to report for magazines and for his books, three of which concern Russia. He has lived in Moscow since 1993, and outlined his proposal for a new detente between the US and Russia in an essay for the web site Quillette called "The Deal Trump Should Strike with Putin" We ended the Cold War by lying to Russia. They remember.

1. Putin's political activities reminds one of the early Cold War CIA and FBI activities.

2. Control of Russian resources  from 1991-1989 went to Russian and Western Oligarchs under Boris Yeltsin .

3. Putin is popular because he ended the chaos under Yeltsin, returned resource control to the state, and his popular management of the Ukrainian crisis and Russian Crimean activates to reverse the 1954 Supreme Soviet
transfer of 
Crimea to Ukraine. Editor's Editor's Note:  Author Taylor used the words handed over with no explanation of process.

4. Russia being our enemy is a default position created and managed by our military industrial complex.

5. Obama traded control of Libyan oil for free access to Gaddifi.

6. Russia wants to be engaged against ISIS more than the American.

7. Trump's pro Russia Middle East attitude battles the deep-seated Cold War interest of the U. S. Intelligence Community.

8. Trust but verify because this
makes me nervous.
 

9. Readings
 

See Is Russia the "Adversary" of the US?

Summary 2

2. China Today and Tomorrow
China Today and Tomorrow
A Concise Business View
Eurasia Group's Dr. Ian Bremmer

 

What China's Done Right

1. Maintained stability without Western

expectation of needed political reform.

2. Building World Infrastructure helps them

join US as a leading influential world power.

3. Technology Ability substantially replaced

steeling technology due to government

and private investment.

What China's done wrong

1.High consumer and government sponsored debt, especially for
 inefficient government sponsored corporations which primary value is providing job.

2. Government control of economy means it owns blame for economic failures like  environmental problems like pollution, lack of water and arguable land, cyber attacks
3. Lost low profile on trade growth as first Trump and now Europe, are tighter trade controls and Chinese foreign investment. Much will depend on Xi Jinping’s success

 

Ian's Discussion yields thoughts


of former Australian Prime Minister

Kevin Rudd 4/18 video
See Latest Video from Kevin Rudd 12/5/18

Is China's President Xi Jinping
under increased domestic pressure?

1. Recent Internet criticism from an academic has stayed on line for a week. his is very unusual  though party leaders being on a vacation/retreat may be relevant.

2. Xi has more pressure than three months age.
He under estimated Trump's strong stance and resolve regarding trade liberalization. Surprised by Europe's willingness to join US trade restrictions and Chinese Foreign Investment limitations.

3. He has been very aggressive when dealing with international questions.

4, The Cult of personality around Xi has received Internet questioning.

Analysis:
Trumps China Foreign Policy

Positive: Trump has forced internal Chinese discussions concerning their pro-Chinese mercantilist policies.

However, the lack of an apparent trade war exit policy is troublesome. Especially if China is forced to save face1 with an increased nationalist policy centering on stronger security …

Obama main success was involving China in the Paris environmental discussions.

A future surprise may be US reaction to Chinese involvement close to U.S. boarders

Where is China going?


1
1. Unilateral Local Sphere of Influence
with no U.S. interference.

2. Promenade Indispensable Economic Partner
 to much of world.

3. Lead Global Economic Reform

Probability of Success
A core question concerns their inability to solve a proposed 2013 problem related to government sponsored corporate inefficiency. This will hurt productivity and maybe growth. Solution was delayed  for political reasons.  Xi wants continue in control. This is an additional problem to the usual developing nation problems related to
environment concerns, civil unrest, and rigidity of a one-power state …
See
Trump’s Australian refugee dilemma   
Factchecking Trump on Australia refugees  
Trump's Treatment of Australia
Understanding China under Xi Jinping

Xi-pledges-$60-billion-in-financing-for-Afric


Future

1. Anti-corruption has spread across economic and political classes allowing key Xi to control important agencies.

2. Success variables
a.
Undue or live with developmental damage.
b. Develop manageable relations with other strong nations

.
3. Paramount Goal Maintaining party control is always

Summary 4
Trump's Trade Policy

1Source Trump Leaves Xi No Room to Make a Trade Deal– M. Schuman:

by Mark Gongloff  an editor with Bloomberg Opinion

China's Reaction

 

 




Summary

Trump trade negotiators use extremely difficult tactics for China to make deal. Until tactics change, there is little chance of Trump’ reaching his goals.

A crucial fact about modern China is as Xi adds to his power, economic and diplomatic success related to a prosperous future with boundless new opportunities became tied to his Cut of Personality.

Humiliating inflicted by a Western power would be a disaster and Xi must keep China’s economy growing, generating jobs and raising incomes. Some might believe this should encourage a trade agreement as U.S. tariffs slows economic activity.

Summary 5 Politics at Yalta
Began Post War Cycle

Prelude:
1648 Peace of Westphalia
Sovereignty of participants over their lands, people, and
agents abroad was established.
Broken by European Colonialism
 

1941 Atlantic Charter 
No spheres of influence, territorial self-determination required
 

First problem came immediately as Soviets did whatever it took
to keep Communists in charge of Poland.
 

The US responded with the Truman Doctrine eventually actions like the
U.S. and Britain sponsored covert activities like 9/8/53 
Iranian Coup.
 

 
 

Participants

Event

United States
FDR
Great Britain
Churchill
Soviet Union
Stalin
 
2/1945 Yalta Conference
Participants Wanted
Every Country has a Right to Manage their Own Affairs  
1. Sphere of Influence Exemptions Caribbean from 1823 Monroe Doctrine British Empire Chuckled, said nothing,
knew he had troops in Easter Europe
 
2. Poland's Disposition
Logic:
Conceded Poland to Russia not announce to placate U.S. pro Polish Voters  Russia Troops Controlled Poland Protect His Historical Image of Poland
19th Century Culture Important
Stop government in London sponsoring attacks on Soviet troops sponsored provisional government  
3. East Asia Russia's help with Japan after German defeated India remains colony, not a protectorate Island, some historically Russian, rights in Mongolia  
4. Germany West control as much as possible Same Parts of Eastern Prussia  
5. United Nations Set up basic governess received Same Veto Power over security council received  

In China’ the opposite is less dangerous and therefore more likely