Why Trump Won
How Bicoastal Technocrats and Gresham's Law 1
Created a Divided America and Trump Voters.

Preface: Analysis

How's Trump's Doing     Follow the Money

Trump as Classic Tragic Hero video 12/15/19
Customer perception is trump's reality.
If someone believes him, by definition, it is true.


Preface: Globalization Divided America, but Too Few Noticed.

from D. Hansen The Case For Trump summary by Walter Antoniotti

Globalization losers were affected because their production could be outsources. Workers involved with physical labor, including small farming/  They were not engaged in the new dynamic economic system, did not benefit and too often lost and over many years developed a negative view of the changing dynamics.

Globalization winners participated in and benefited greatly from the dynamic changes affecting America. Journalism, economics, finance, academics ... production stayed home and often benefited greatly from the larger, now global market. These Coastal Technocrats were Well-Educated at top universities and controlled most aspects of American life. To worsen a developing caustic environment, we blamed the victims. We demonized these low wage, often middle Americans. It was their fault!

View of a Trump Voter Hillary Clinton, a liberal "Socialist," followed her election losing condemnation of America's "irredeemable" and "deplorable" with this post-election public comment. "if you look at the map of the US there is all that red in the middle. Places where Trump won. What the map doesn't show you is that I won the places that owned two-thirds of the American GDP. I won the places that are optimistic, they're diverse, they're dynamic, they're moving forward, and his whole campaign Make America Great was looking backward. You don't like blacks getting rights, women getting jobs successful American Indians Source

Editor's Note: You got the people who own it, what about those who produce it? But I have no desire to vote for a president whose  administration has already successfully bullied Britain into taking a harder Brexit position, which is good for Trump’s geopolitical games and US big business, but bad for Britain’s economy and British welfare. The Dismal Science - The Reddit Bureau of Economic Research

Conservative Bill Crystal, self-proclaimed political pundit
" Look, to be totally honest, if things are so bad as you say with the white working class don't you just want to get new Americans instead...
after two or three generations of hard work these guys get decadent, they're lazy, they're spoiled, whatever."

Stanford Colleague Max Booth "if only we could keep the hard working Latin American newcomers and depot the contemptible Republicans cowards that would make America great

Former High-Tech CEO and Colleague Melinda Byerly after the election" one thing a middle American could do is to realize no educated person wants to live in a nation shithole with stupid people especially violent racist misogynistic..."When corporations think about where to locate call centers, factories, development centers they have to think
that those towns have nothing going for them, no infrastructure just a few bars and a terrible school system.


Hanson Observations

"people in this Heartland that were psychologically as angry as they were
 hurting economically and they just wanted somebody to fight back."

Free trade is favored by most but  "... there was something wrong there that people in the heartland
were pointing out and that is if Germany is running a 71 billion dollar deficit with the US and it can't afford
to have 5 fighters in the air at the same time and is on the front line of supposed enemies and it wants
us to contribute > 2% of GDP  but it only contributes .6 and it will put a tariff on a US automobile of 10% and
we have to put it at 2.5%."

NAFTA created a 70 billion dollars Mexican trade surplus, 30 billion dollars in
remittances back to Mexico and an unfriendly Mexican President.

Gresham's Law applies to people and business as well as money see  

Editor:  America's Hegemony began early in the 20th Century.
We took complete control of the world after WW 2.
America achieved economic wealth and world stability.
Trump decided to gamble with this success.

Economic Wellbeing has increased Dramatically


1Gresham's Law, bad money chases good, applies to workers.
When economic conditions got  bad in rural America,
 many talented workers and good companies left.
Problem was, Democrats thought their expanding safety net
 would keep those left behind in their party.


Analysis Index
Grade Report    Why     Who     What Voters Want    
What Trump Constituents Want      Follow the Money   

How's Trump's Doing  
Health Care Changes   Support for Workers     Taxes    Trade    Nuclear Deal

 Gorsuch Opinions      Latest News     Successes     Questions

Has America Lost Her A. Economic Greatness? Her B. International Greatness?

Is Trump is trying to increase Economic Wellbeing by increasing A at the expense of B!
Updated 8/20/19 
   Please link to, use as textbooks/supplements, and share.


Trumps Grade Report

"Last week, the Trump administration released its 2021 budget request
which would cut Department of Education outlays by 8 percent while proposing
dramatic change in how federal school dollars are allocated."

Editor: Switching to a block grant allotment of funds is a good idea.

Give x dollars for an existing underfunded y program with no guidelines.

Just someone keeping an eye that it goes for y and not football.

Think the Brandeis Laboratories of democracy used to allocate funds for all programs
and get the WW 2 approach to expert driven complicated programs that can not be managed.
Inspired by 
See  Storm Before the Calm.

Consequence: Confrontational Style when Responding to China
Poorly Affect on International Economics and Politics   

Comment: My Pizza Man friend despises Totalitarian Communism
yet he avidly supports Trump, easily our most visibly totalitarian President.


Updated 8.30/20

Updated 12/19 New NAFTA

“There is no question that this trade agreement is much better than NAFTA. It is infinitely better than what was initially proposed by the administration,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said.

the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement — would create new intellectual property protections, require more North American parts to be used in automobiles to qualify for zero tariffs, open the Canadian milk market to U.S. farmers and create new rules for e-commerce, boost wages, benefits and safety rules for workers, update environmental protections, and increased measures to ensure that Mexican reforms such as recognizing the right of workers to form independent unions. Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.), criticized the removal of expanded patent protections for a class of drugs called biologics as a “complete capitulation” to Democrats

8/21/19 UpdateKeeping Promises is why they're sticking with Trump, this is the #1 reason they cite.
Love him or hate him,
Trump fixates on turning campaign promises into reality—
or at least making the case that he tried:

  • Conservative Supreme Court
  • Tax cuts? Check, weighted toward corporations .
  • Gut regulations
  • Crack down on Immigrants
  • Tariffs on China
  • Declaring China a currency manipulator
  • Withdrawing from Paris climate agreement
  • Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal
  • Left Trans-Pacific Partnership, Pacific Rim trade deal
  • Renegotiating NAFTA? Check. Pending congressional approval.
Failed Promises
  • Wipe out the national debt in eight years.
  • A great wall
  • Mexico would pay
  • Repeal Affordable Care Act and give amazing health care to everyone. Getting Closer.
  • Reverse trade deficits.  U.S. trade deficit with Europe has grown.
  • Withdraw from Afghanistan
  • fallen short:
  • Infrastructure and ending the Opioid crisis.
  • Drain the swam


The scorecard looks pretty good 3 years into the Trump administration.
If Google in fact does profits back to the US and others follow, his grade will go up. 1/1/20
NATO defense spending among our allies is on the rise, largely because of Trump’s bullying
but only one more country has met the 2024 goal. Grade C
We are sending arms to Ukraine and have not abandoned our allies to the Russian bear. C
Iran is hurting economically and on the defensive. Inc
China faces serious U.S. pushback for the first time in decades, especially through Trump’s tariffs. B
Throughout the world, the United States is setting the agenda again for the first time in many years. Unknown.

See Fake News: Trumpisms Presented as Lies, Not Political Hyperbole but
The Founding Fathers Feared Foreign Influence


  Constituents Why Some Unhappy Editor's Analysis
Supreme Court  Happy A Court Less Neutral Court got Power from Marshall and fight

 Fight to control Supreme Court began with Marshal, continues today



Harmony Not Important A Ignores Political Correctness F Created Problem Awareness, Federalist vs. Confederates Retakes Center Stage,
Wage increases or Profit Decreases will be Cost of Success, Success Difficult,
Trade Some Progress B Internationalist Could Lose F Public Sacrifice Required, Stressful Negotiations,
Economic Gains from Change Usually Go to Oligarchs
Syria We Won,
ISIS Defeated A
Iran Will Fill the Vacancy Was Goal Defeating ISIS or Continuing 17 Year Mission of Policing Syria?
Foreign Policy after  3 years

Policy choice: Trump following a maximize the maximum,
Maximize the minimum is most common. Minimize the maximum regret is not considered.
NATO defense spending
up, largely because of Trump’s bullying.
Arms to Ukraine, haven't abandoned our allies to Russia, Iran has hurting economy
China faces serious U.S. pushback for the first time in decades, 
Geopolitical agenda
s has returned to US control.

Return to Economic Issues         Updated 1/1/20        Please use as a link, and textbooks/supplements, and Share!



Why Trump Won interesting interview video of

The-Great-Revolt authors  Summary

First the Political Parties Morphed Toward Opposing Philosophies        

FDR's New Deal began the conservative voter movement  toward the Republican Party.
Eisenhower made many voters feel good about the Republican Party.

Eastern Elitists image
of Kennedy's administration antagonized many rural Western voters.

Great Society of supposed Democrat Lyndon Johnson completed polarization.

America's Damaged Political Culture Continues vide

Second Party Animosity Grew

Nixon's Watergate increased political party animosity. Republican won two terms

Carter's Crisis of Confidence" Speech  hurt Democrats limited to one term

Reagan Revolution
ended the New Deal era with white middle class workers becoming Republican

Bush 1 found  People Vote Their Pocketbook when he increased taxes. 
win three terms

NAFTA was a watershed in globalization in that it was the first free trade pact between rich countries and a poor country. NAFTA came to It symbolized the collision of blue collar workers with consumers, corporations and geostrategic cooperation. Opposition to it was a centerpiece of President Trump’s campaign.

President Bush 1, who was politically Mixed on NAFTA signed the bill leaving President Bill Clinton to seek its ratification. Clinton's decision marked a political pivot by Democrats toward globalization and away from the party’s blue-collar base. Contemplating rust-belt worker victory has, many Democrats now regret that pivot. The question is the status quo or a movement away from globalization. Summarized from WSJ Editor's Note: Inexpensive high profits products battle a neglected middle class.

Clayton's Monica Lewinsky Scandal
increased Republic animosity. Democrats win two terms

Bush 2 wars/deficits reinforced party prejudice increasing animosity.
Republicans win two terms

Obama Presidency reinforced party prejudices substantially increasing animosity.
Democrats win two terms

Third Politicians Failed

Republicans were pro business supporting immigration and free trade

Democratic emphasised Identity Politics supporting feminism, gay rights, ethnicity ...

White Working Middle Class Voters Lost Dignity, Stagnated Economically, Needed Recognition

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote

Change in financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference. A  party’s positions on issues related to global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominance.

American Income Inequality Perfectly Explained  Mark Blyth 11 min video Abstract

I examined the “left behind” (lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages
due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party.

Bush 2 stopped Iranians who helped us from immigrants.
Obama creates Syrian refugees but won't cross red line.

I considered the possibility that status threat felt by the of traditionally high-status Americans
 (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) AND those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.

Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed
to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.

Fourth Trump Won Because it was the Republican's Turn

See 5 Key Psychological Traits About Trump Voters

Trump Won Because of Racial Resentment

Interesting View of Trump


Trump Won Most Red Less Dynamism States

Status threat, not economic hardship,
explains the 2016 presidential vote

Claims About Populism (pdf, slides)

Professor Mark Blyth on Policy Goals, Trump, and China

Who Elected Trump video from Cato

Trump Voters Understood

Bottom quintile earnings share up 2.2% to 12.9%
Second quintile share up 7% 13.9%
quintile middle-income quintile up 12.6% to only 15.4%
Fourth quintile’s share fell from 20.5% to 18.6%
Top quintile share fell from 57.7% to 39.3%.
Top to bottom multiple dropped from 26 times to three times
In addition work effort increased moving up the income ladder as more family members worked and more worked two jobs. Source
But "...
financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference'....party’s positions on issues related to American global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America: issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominant group status  " .


;...I examine the “left behind” thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes).

Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.

Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.



Five Election Stuff

Political Issues.

Is Politics About the Money?

 Should Tea Party Share Its Debt Tea?   

Why is Poverty Controversial?

Is the Country in Trouble?

Exorbitant Dollar Privilege

The Study shows most Trump states
became less dynamic.











Two Political Eras
Political Eras One 1788 to 1892   pdf
Political Eras Two 1896 to 2016   pdf

Many Elections
Presidential Elections One 1778-1824
Presidential Elections Two 1828-1852
Presidential Elections Three 1856-1892

Presidential Elections Four 1896-1928

Presidential Elections Five 1932-72
Presidential Elections Six 1976-2012    

Rigged election . . . Sowed-Doubt and Nearly Led to Violence

See Our Democratic Federalist Republic and
 US Election Issues and Historical Demographics from our

U.S. Government and Politics Course US Election

Source US Political Economy Handbook


What Voters Wanted

General Population Wanted

Economy and terrorism are top issues for voters in 2016


Trump's Constituency Wanted










So far Trump is four for five as LGBTQIA Rights and
His Personal Moral Health Have Changed Little!



Midterm Elections Concerns


What Trump's Constituents Want

Why People Vote for Donald Trump

‘I don’t want the Clinton legacy continued in the White House’

‘He knows how to make deals, deals that will make America prosperous again’

‘I want conservative laws’

‘Trump is exactly what you get, with Hillary
you can’t know what’s real’

‘Obama has put a wedge between the people of this country’

‘Under Trump the American dream is revived’

Health Care Changes

Budget Deals Health Care Winners and Losers
Editor's Note: The noisy fueled by talk shows never materialized.

More for Opioid fight

Extension years for CHIP four, community health centers two,
multiple Medicare payment policies significant extensions.

The CR summary The disaster relief summary The bill text

Winner:  AMA and other doctor groups.
Therapy groups. 

Pharma. The industry would be forced to pay 75 percent of the cost of drugs for seniors in Medicare’s coverage gap a year early.

Home visiting me health agencies


It Was Renewed as Part of the Tax Reduction Deal

See 3 key-things-to-know-about-chip

Latest On Support For Workers

Can Trump Solve this Difficult Problem

Editor's Note: Most


Overtime Pay Could Be Increased

Editor's Note: I believe this legislation has stalled.

Less Regulation Might Help

Editor's Question Will this Lowers Cost go to Profits, Wages, Both           

Significant Regulations Completed by Presidential Year

Number of Economically Significant Regulations Completed by Presidential Year graph




Source trump-had-fewer-deportations-than-Obama's-first-year

Editor's Question Are there many illegal immigrant workers in the hospitality business?


Many Supporters Not Working



Disruptions to NAFTA Agricultural Trade Could Especially Hurt Trump-Voting States

See Clinton seeks to re-evaluate NAFTA


 The Wall Street Journal reviewed securities filings from 108 publicly traded companies accounting for the vast majority of an estimated $2.7 trillion in profits parked abroad. They said they have repatriated about $143 billion so far this year. In all, while repatriations have soared past pre-2018 levels, independent analysts don’t expect anywhere near the $4 trillion Mr. Trump has touted, Richard Rubin and Theo Francis report.

Money Went to Dividends and Not Reinvested in Hard Capital

Bureau of Economic Analysis from NYT


Failed tax-cut experiment in Kansas should guide national leaders


Is President Trump's Tax Cut the Largest in History Yet?

Note: Most of the 2013 Obama tax cut came when

 the Bush 2 cuts scheduled to reverse were continued.


"The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 applies to taxes starting in 2018, and the  first quarterly data on tax revenue are in. Most noticeable are a major drop in corporate tax income and the increase in taxes from production and imports. (In the latter case, both excise tax income and import duty income increased.) These changes are actually quite impressive: -35% for corporate tax income, +16% for production and import tax income. Personal income taxes are slightly down while taxes on foreign entities follow trend. How does all this pan out in the aggregate? The thick black line reveals that overall tax receipts are down by close to 5%. Will this persist or is this a one-time event? Revisit this blog post in the coming months to see how this graph updates."


Infographic: What's Standing in the Way of Doing Business in the USA? | Statista


One Estimate of Corporate Use of Savings

Final GOP Tax Bill Pays for Permanent Corporate Tax Cuts With Individual Tax Increases


Early Results

When CEOs’ Equity Is About to Vest, They Cut Investment
 to Boost the Stock Price 2/28/18

The Trump Effect on State Taxes Steven Malanga, City Journal

Editor's Note:
Success or Failure will depend on long term economic growth
though both sides will claim victory.
Reagan tax cuts increased deficits substantially but
 in this elm 2 the economy went on a 15 year growth spurt.

Graph Source Surprise-corporate-tax-cuts-are-making-the-rich-even-richer/

Current Tax Savings

Trump Estimated Income Tax Savings
In Ten Years Individual Taxes Rates Increase


Editor's Note: If the Economy does well, rates will stay low.
As long as the rest of the world works hard, sell us high quality goods
 at a reasonable price, and loans us their profits to buy their goods
at a reasonable interest rate,
not much will change for most Americans.



Prelude     1. The Players     2. History   

3. The Economics    4. Earl Returns 5/26/19   

The Stakes     Free Trade Update

Prelude Economist Magazine 7/21/18

Obama hoped to use NAFTA, TPP and TTIP
to form a block to force Chinese negotiation.

Trump is speeding up Obama's attempt to control WTO
  by using unilateral reciprocal tariffs system to stop those skirting WTO rules.
 Europe and Japan Agree  but never play hard ball.

Trump chose a respected free trade negotiator, but will he last.

Some fear Trump will settle too early and accepts the shot term gain. 
China would buy more U.S. goods with no enforceable rules
 concerning Intellectual property and other forms of industrial espionage.

If he waits too long it could turn into a power and face game and not trade rules.

Where Things Stand on NAFTA 20 min video

Trump Wins 10/5/18

USMCA: Good Result With Minimum Trade Disruption

USMCA: Good Result With Minimum Trade Disruption
Will help U.S. Agriculture, and auto manufacturing update technology arrangements
while maintaining
car part exports
to United States.
Auto worker $16/hour 2020 minimum for 30% of auto production increases to 40% in 2023.
This is about three times the pay of the average Mexican autoworker but it
does not apply to many U.S. workers
as most earn over $16 an hour.
Discourage manufacturing movement to Mexico for lower wages but
will likely lead to
moderate auto price increase.
Editor's note:
Someone must finance worker wage increases and hopefully maintain US competitive edge.
Maintains North American supply chain and participants world competitiveness.
Editor's note:
If this results in excessive profits then taxes should solve the resulting inequality.
Waiver for Trump threatened 25-percent tariffs steel and aluminum manufacturers
important to
future business investment certainty
Six years reviews allows for the fair chain and marketplace adjustments
needed for self-driving and electric vehicles.



Can Trump be Patient

Most Farmers Helped Little

U.S. and European trade negotiators are chasing quick wins to cement a July cease-fire. Problem is, even seemingly simple trade moves can take years. The sides meet in Washington on Tuesday to start fulfilling President Trump's goal of “zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods.” The focus for now is aligning American and European regulations on goods and services, Emre Peker reports.

Because of the cost of adapting products to slightly different standards, coordination could yield huge savings for both sides. But this is the third U.S.-EU attempt since 2007 to eliminate non-tariff barriers. Finding common ground on regulations is tough. That could frustrate the U.S. side: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross last week insisted on “quick negotiations that produce tangible results.”

New NAFTA and South Korea Treaties Await Approval

"... look much like the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas for autos."

"... a step back from free trade toward managed trade..." they will have little practical effect limiting cars Mexico and Canada can ship duty-free to the U.S. exceed current shipments. "...officials have elected instead to seek broader tariff reductions with Japan and the European Union." 12/26/18 WSJ


China's Main Strategy

See 21st Century Free Trade Analysis

Trump's 90-day Tariff deal



1. The Players

The Four Steel Men Behind Trumps Trade War




"Looking for" a Solution "in all the Wrong Places"


In Looming US-China Trade War, Where Else Could US Companies Buy From?


The Money

Note: Very small percentage of GDP

Not So Recent History

See First Opium War: Trade Deficits and the McCartney Embassy 1 of 4 videos

Free Trade and The U.S.  
by  Interesting historical data


3. The Economics

A. Import Competition and the Great
US Employment Sag of the 2000s

 (University of Chicago


DT Wants to Renegotiate Free Trade
To Bring Back Assembly Jobs from China, Mexico, Japan and elsewhere.

Problem: Who will this help?

More, Low Paying Jobs, won't help workers?
Higher Pay Jobs Mean Higher Product Price or
Les to Owners and Managers.

Years ago Detroit faces this problem with less quality,
Fewer Workers, and Union Acquiescence.

Understanding the Lack of Good Jobs

Solving the Lack of Good Jobs

Trump and Trade


B. The Surprisingly Swift Decline
of US Manufacturing Employment
(American Economic Association).

Harley-Davidson plans to shift more production overseas to avoid European Union tariffs on its iconic motorcycles. Harley prizes its made-in-the-USA reputation as central to its appeal. But the Milwaukee company has opened factories in Brazil, India and Australia to tap international markets and hold down prices as sales falter in the U.S., Bob Tita reports. That manufacturing footprint outside the U.S. is set to expand. Harley said the 31% tariff the EU enacted last week on its motorcycles—retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs—would raise the cost of each Hog it ships there from the U.S. by about $2,200. Rather than raise prices, Harley said it would shift production of the motorcycles it sells in the EU outside the U.S. over the next 18 month Note: As with North Korea Nuclear Issue, Trump gets a thumps up on trade, whether his high grade continues will be measures on his trade policy in relation to jobs.

C. Intellectual Property
Why is the U.S. accusing China of stealing intellectual property ...
Intellectual Property and China: Is China Stealing American IP?




4. Early Returns 9/26/18

BBC Analysis

US-China trade row: What has happened so far?

Six ways China could retaliate in a trade war

How a US-China trade war could hurts all


 Chinese Tariffs Hit Trump Counties Harder

Trump Is Actually Right About Chinese Trade (Credit Writedowns) China's economic emergence as the global trading power it has become has damaged western economies. For details see Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s (University of Chicago) and The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment (American Economic Association)

Trump scores his first revised trade deal with South Korea

Trump Hails Revised South Korean Trade Pact but changes are few


98: US soy bean exports to China have fallen by an astounding 98 percent since the start of the year, as Beijing targeted the industry in retaliation to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods. It doesn’t look like a resolution between the US and China is in sight, after the two sides traded barbs at the APEC summit over the weekend.

China's Move Up the Value Add Chain Accelerated by Trade War


5. The Future
Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard former US Treasury secretary.

U.S. tariffs on around $200 billion in Chinese imports are set to jump to 25% on Jan. 1, up from the 10% implemented last month.

  • That works out to around $30 billion in new taxes to be paid by U.S. importers, many of whom will pass at least some of the costs on to U.S. consumers.

Be smart: Economics differ on the degree to which increased tariffs will affect things like GDP, corporate earnings, and inflation, but few of the predictions are broadly cataclysmic.

The bigger wildcard is how China will respond. Trump, buoyed by his self-described trade successes with Canada and Mexico, is unlikely to back down before January.

  • If Republicans continue to run Congress, Trump will maintain free reign on trade, even if it violates traditional GOP orthodoxy.
  • If Democrats gain power, trade may be one area where they largely agree with the White House.

China cannot simply apply 25% tariffs to an equal amount of U.S. imports, because they don't total $200 billion. Other possible options (and, no, this is not an exhaustive list):

  • Devalue the yuan, thus turning them into the currency manipulator Trump already says they are.
  • Severely restrict Chinese tourism to the U.S., which generated $33 billion in 2016.
  • Sell down its trillion dollar-plus stockpile of U.S. Treasury bills, or stop buying new ones. Either one could possibly increase U.S. government borrowing costs.
  • Make it much more difficult for U.S. businesses to operate in China, well beyond current concerns about IP theft and requirements that U.S. tech companies form joint ventures with local partners.

The bottom line: Trump has made America’s policy known. China’s response will determine if this becomes a full-blown trade war. — Dan Primack

Sign up for Dan's daily deals newsletter Axios Pro Rata here and Felix Salmon's weekly business lookahead Axios Edge here.

6. The Stakes

Larry Summers 12/18

Meeting US demands would have altered by China's growth about 1 percent.

U.S. companies annual profits  growth would have increased by about 0.1 percent.
This is not to say that China is not a threat to the international order. If, the United States loses its lead in information technology, artificial intelligence and biotech, the trauma will be magnified.

While it might be unacceptable to the United States to be  greatly surpassed in economic scale, does it have the means to stop it?

China appears to be willing to accommodate the United States on specific trade issues as long as the United States accepts its right to flourish and grow, knowing that sheer weight of numbers will make it the clear world’s largest economy before long.

That is a deal the United States should take while it can. It can bluster but it cannot, in an open world, suppress the Chinese economy. Trying to do so risks strengthening the most anti-American elements in Beijing.

Whether US leverage can accomplish something important deepens convincing the Chinese that the United States is capable of taking yes for an answer, and go beyond small-bore commercialism. We can hope, but we should not hold our breath.    larry summers


Reform Contradictions Facing China's New Leadership, Yukon Huang

Blumberg has some game theory insight
on what to watch and expect.

  1. An inherently cooperative game is increasingly played uncooperatively:
    Most economists worry about the implications for individual countries and the system as a whole.
    Trade wars tend to create a strong stagflation impulses, disrupting growth and increasing costs and prices.
    The conflicts complicate domestic policy management and increase the risk of financial instability.
    They also risk causing serious fractures to the international economic and financial architecture,
    Is the current round of mounting trade tensions a means to a better end — still-free but fairer trade
    or an end in itself.
  2. Further escalation is the most likely outcome for now:
    For trade tensions to be a means to a better end, behaviors changes must be visible, verifiable and durable.
    This is particularly true of intellectual property, market access limits and joint venture requirements,
    Only durable change will stop increased risky US pressure regardless of the domestic costs.
    The threats are a full-blown trade war, increased geopolitical strains, financial disruptions like not buying U.S. government securities and participation in the dollar market.
  3. The game is inherently unbalanced: This uncooperative game is well placed for a US relative win as
    Trade tensions are more damaging to China, whose growth model is more dependent on foreign market,
  4. This advantage is already evident in the performance of the equity and currency markets.
    It is like President Ronald Reagan 1980's military spending race with the Soviet Union.
    America was destined to win at considerable risk.
  5. China will likely ultimately agree to some U.S. requests
    It is the
    least costly strategy as China seeks a return to a cooperative approach to trade.
    It may not be a first best outcome for China, but it’s a lo better than a full-blown trade war.
  6. Public accusations and counter-accusations make trust difficult
    Restoring greater trust requires behind-closed-door meetings
    Sooner these meetings resume in earnest, the lower the risks of a very costly global trade war.
  7. You can get there faster through coalition-building because trade grievances are shared by other countries
    This multilateral tone helps safeguard an international architecture needed to modernize trade rules.
  8. Implementation is trickier than design: These steps are very difficult to calibrate. Trust is low, both in terms of domestic politics and between countries. A good understanding of other nations’ reactions is essential, as well as an openness to course correction as an uncooperative game becomes increasingly unpredictable. Moreover, on the domestic front, well-communicated, timely and coordinated White House decision making is key to maintaining the needed buy-in from broad segments of the population and Congress.what-game-theory-says-about-trump-s-trade-strategy

175 Years of Liberal Economics

2018.04.09_metro_China tariff blog_map-01



U.S.-based Massachusetts Institute of Technology is to terminate its research and funding links with Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE in light of recent federal probes.

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Russia may be the biggest beneficiary of newly-imposed US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Last month, Russia pumped an average of 11.4 million barrels of the black stuff per day – a 30-year record – amid higher global oil prices and a push in many countries to replace Iranian barrels.

U.S.-based Massachusetts Institute of Technology is to terminate its research and funding links with Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE in light of recent federal probes. 4/4/19
Donald Trump plans to end key trade preferences for India and Turkey which allow duty-free entry for about 2,000 products, including car parts. India was the biggest beneficiary in 2017, with Turkey fifth. The president rapped India's non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods and claimed Turkey is no longer an emerging market. Investors shrugged. 3/4/19
Tax cuts : Gross corporate taxes have fallen 20% first 11 months of fiscal year,
                  while individual income-tax receipts are up
Trump administration bans bump stocks
Trump-Putin Summit  
Trump Administration Halts Investigation of Profit Colleges
Trump Policies Particularly Good for Small Business 
SNAP Proposals Would Increase Food Insecurity and Hardship 4/12/18 not passed A Positive View of Trump? Video Interview begins at 7 minute mark
US slaps 'America First' tariffs on washing machines and solar panels China president's conciliatory trade gesture raises optimism 4/10/18
Women lose $4.6 billion if administration’s ‘tip stealing’ rule finalized 1/16/18
See Pennsylvania takes the lead protecting overtime 1/18/18 Editor's Note: Being a
Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
, states can counter federal actions or inactions on many issues.
US slaps 'America First' tariffs on washing machines and solar panels
Judge Supports Child Dreamers 1/16/18

7 Successes and ‘Incompletes’ for Trump’s First Full Year 1/18/181) Trump Stock Bonus’
2) Enforcing Immigration Laws

10  Worst Ways President Tromp and Congress Have betrayed Working Americans

How Trump and Congress further rigged the economy in favor of the wealthy bJosh BivensDaniel CostaCeline McNicholasHeidi Shierholz, and Marni von Wilpert • 1/12/18
1) Enacting tax cuts that overwhelmingly favor the wealthy over the average worker

2) Taking billions out of workers’ pockets by weakening or abandoning regulations that protect their pay See

Trump abandoned Labor Department's overtime pay regulations to cost workers $1.2 billion per year.

3) Blocking worker access to the courts by allowing mandatory arbitration clauses in employment contracts

10) Undercutting key worker protection agencies by nominating anti-worker leaders

3. Judicial appointments: Trump has staffed the judiciary with constitutionalists such as Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. 
4) Making VA a Meritocracy
5-7 visit

Tax cut should extend the six plus year recovery from the Great Recession
Editor's Note: Higher Economic Growth rate to negate the drop in. revenue expected would help solve the problem that Recent War/Recession Debt has not been negated by economic growth and inflation. Also is it too early to help the economy during Trump's reelection bid.
Congress let CHIP’s funding expire 102 days ago... Editor's Note:
Being a Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
, states can counter federal actions or inactions on many issues. Maryland grants access to paid sick days to 700,000 workers and their families1/12/18
Democrats agreed to support a short-term spending bill that funds the government through February 8 and reauthorizes the Children’s Health Care Program for six years in exchange for continued negotiations on immigration and budget issues.
Deregulation: Trump has cut 67 Obama-era regulations and added only three new rules. The rollback on regulations has spurred business confidence, economic activity and stock market growth. Trump said the actions have saved $8.1 billion in lifetime net regulatory costs
Trump loves farmers but keeps them guessing on NAFTA strategy

The trade-ravaged areas that voted for Trump have the most to lose from Trump’s anti-trade agenda 11/16/17
Editor's Note
Trump softens NAFTA rhetoric 1/15/18

Unbiased [If Possible] Year One Grades

Grading President Trump's First Year in Office: B!

The Senate Just Voted To Protect Banks From Class-Action Lawsuits 10/25/17

Editor's Note: States that did not tens to be poorer red states. 12/21/17

Trump Targets Obama Rule On Workers’ Tips LYDIA WHEELER
as of 1/19/18 this had not passed.
Other Stuff

BUSINESS JAN 23 2018, 3:59 PM ET Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs



Trump/Russia: Follow the money

Trump/Russia: Secrets, spies, and useful idiots

Trump/Russia Moscow Rules


The major difference between the high-cost and low-cost estimates is the increased revenues from immigration. 

Consumer Protection Agency Drops High-Cost Lender Investigation 1/23/18



Food for Thought

Trump could of said we want college graduates as immigrants.

Instead he said we don't want people from area x and not Y where
x was pure white and x not so much.

Does he do this on purpose. Why?







Like Tariffs, this will take a long time, will America wait?

U.S. sanctions have driven the price of oil and the ruble apart—leaving Russia with expensive crude and a cheaper currency, a combination that is helping its economy. The price of oil, Russia’s main export, has risen almost 14% since mid-August, largely because of coming U.S. sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, the ruble has declined 15% since April, when Washington imposed sanctions on Russia for alleged meddling in U.S. elections and other aggressions. So, just as the price of dollar-denominated oil rises, those greenbacks are worth more when translated back into a weaker ruble, Avantika Chilkoti reports.



usa-trade-tariffs/job-creator-or-job-killer-trump-angers-solar-installers-with-panel- Needs to be watched.


Given the four or five remaining candidates, voters should do one of the following.

Vote D.T. if you want to maximize the maximum as his somewhat logical attitude toward The Middle East, Education and the Wellbeing of the American Middle Class if correct could make a big difference.

Vote H.C. to maximize the minimum as she won’t change much and in spite of the rhetoric, the country is doing fine provided you ignore people like those in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma  who are afraid the Atlantic hurricane season could severely affect their life in the Sooner or Later state as Danger lurks everywhere.

Vote H.C. again if you want to minimize the maximum regret. Why?  If DT is wrong  the Ted Cruz requirement that everyone be Christian because of the coming apocalypse could be correct. The result would be D cubed or Deep Do Do for non-STEM people.

Gorsuch Opinions


"In his maiden opinion, Henson v. Santander Consumer USA, Gorsuch wrote that the proper role of the judiciary is to “apply, not amend, the work of the people’s representatives.”

Gorsuch has also expressed concerns about the federal government’s expansion of power and infringement of states’ authority. He dissented in a case dealing with federal courts exercising authority over state law claims, writing that, “The Court today clears away a fence that once marked a basic boundary between federal and state power.”

He noted that “we’ve wandered so far from the idea of a federal government of limited and enumerated powers that we’ve begun to lose sight of what it looked like in the first place.”

Gorsuch is equally concerned about states infringing the rights of individuals, an issue that has been prevalent in several free speech cases this term. During the oral argument in Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, Gorsuch was skeptical of Minnesota’s position that it could ban voters from wearing T-shirts with “some of the Bill of Rights and not others” when they enter polling places.

At the argument in NIFLA v. Becerra, he pressed California’s lawyer for an explanation of why it’s permissible for California to force private parties to advertise the state’s free abortion services, thereby burdening their free speech.

In the oral argument in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, the case of a Christian baker who declined to make custom wedding cakes for same-sex weddings, Gorsuch expressed frustration with the state’s mandate that the baker provide sensitivity training for his staff. Gorsuch asked, “Why isn’t that compelled speech and possibly in violation of his free-exercise rights? Because presumably he has to tell his staff … that his Christian beliefs are discriminatory.”

>>> Listen to “SCOTUS 101”: Elizabeth Slattery and Tiffany Bates bring you up to speed on their Supreme Court podcast.

Gorsuch hasn’t shied away from powerfully dissenting from the court’s refusal to hear important cases. He joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Peruta v. California, lamenting that the court continued to treat the Second Amendment as a “disfavored right.”

Trump pick Gorsuch casts deciding Supreme Court vote against deporting immigrant Neil Gorsuch, President Trump's first Supreme Court appointment, cast the deciding vote in a decision released Tuesday that sided with an immigrant fighting his deportation. the court said Tuesday that the law’s definition of a crime of violence is too vague.

He also joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Garco Construction v. Speer, a missed opportunity to limit Auer deference—the doctrine that gives great deference to agencies’ interpretations of their own regulations. They called this doctrine “constitutionally suspect” because it transfers “the judge’s exercise of interpretive judgment to the agency,” which is “not properly constituted to exercise the judicial power.”

Gorsuch’s fidelity to the Constitution has made liberal court watchers apoplectic. He has been under a microscope since his name first topped the list of Trump’s potential Supreme Court nominees.

Following his confirmation, this scrutiny has only increased. Seeking to sow seeds of discord, NPR’s 

Nina Totenberg claimed to have inside information about a growing feud between Gorsuch and Justice Elena Kagan. Thomas dismissed those rumors in an interview last fall.

Liberal commentators, including The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin and others, insolently criticized Gorsuch for asking too many questions during oral arguments, and fault him for frequently citing the Constitution and expressing his interest in getting back to first principles.

Elitist liberal academics pour over his opinions, looking for anything to nitpick, and encouraging people to mock his writing style with the silly hashtag #GorsuchStyle on Twitter.

But taking petty jabs at the justice shows just how little substantive criticism they can muster. In his first year, Gorsuch has shown that he works hard, writes clearly, and cares deeply about getting the law right.

When Gorsuch spoke last fall at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention, he said to great applause, “Tonight, I can report that a person can be both a publicly committed originalist and textualist and be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States. Originalism has regained its place at the table of constitutional interpretation, and textualism in the reading of statutes has triumphed. And neither one is going anywhere on my watch.”

That is something to celebrate."



#1. Will Trump do any ?

Here are 7 ways to help workers

1. Guarantee workers protections from unjust firing.

2. Make it easier to form unions and to strike.

3. Ban right-to-work laws. 

4. End forced arbitration and regulate non-compete agreements. 

5. Make pay and scheduling more just.

6. National paid sick leave. 

7. Increase transparency and communication. 


# 2. Is Trumps ignoring of human rights issues when dealing with dictators similar to how
    Jefferson and Madison who ignored slavery when building America's Republic?

#3. Does Trump use Rhetological Fallacies to sway opinions more than most politicians and other oligarchs?

#4. What is the endgame? He creates headlines to add a lot of pro Russian noisy

then pushes Russia around, sometimes

#5. How relevant is lie-gate?


President Donald Trump’s “America First” national security strategy.

Defending the Nation With Secretary of Defense James Mattis


Trumpism ?Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait on Thursday said they would deposit $1 billion into Jordan’s central bank—part of a broader effort to prop up the country’s economy.


The-Great-Revolt authors video Summary

Summary 12 random stratified counties that change vote from Obama to Trump sampled
Rotary Club related college graduates who lived in areas with fewer college graduates,
less than 29.8%, voted for Trump. even the college graduates. More than  29.8% voted  Hillary

His voters had high aspirations for country, felt good about their personal lives,
but community was in social and economic carnage.

Girl Gun Power among varied population some with college, most stable lives <45 years old
voted for 2nd Amendment protection to protect self and because of family

Many blue collar normally Democratic voters switched
because unhappy with community carnage.

Editor's Note: Many who value heritage unhappy with liberal attitude toward American traditions.


6. The Committee to Save the World Order

America’s Allies Must Step Up as America Steps Down
A trump win?


Iran Nuclear Update 8/15/18


In May Trump’s pullout out of the 2015 deal made by the U.S., China, France, Russia, Germany, the U.K. and the European Union with Iran that would severely limit Iran's nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief. 

Next came  menacing tweets from Trump threatening Tehran with  historic consequences

This week the U.S. reemployed sanctions against Iran, targeting financial transactions, imports of raw materials, and the auto and airplane sectors.

In November vital oil exports will be sanctioned.

Trump claims he wants a tougher deal that would require Iran give up nuclear ambitions and curb interference in Syria and Yemen. 

Having reneged, Trump has left Tehran  without incentives.

Le Monde (France) editorial. The usually erratic Trump has relentlessness pursued a conflict policy with Tehran.

China Daily (China)  The U.S. stands alone in its attempt to impose sanctions because international monitors report full compliance.

Other signatories are not leaving.

China will continue to buy Iranian oil.

EU  will protect companies hit with American sanctions of  closing U.S. market to European firms that trades with Iran.

 Kayhan (Iran) Iran could shut down 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through  the Strait of Hormuz.

 Sara Saidi in L’Orient–Le Jour (Lebanon) Sanctions are already hurting Iranians.

Multinational companies that do business with the U.S. are closing Iranian operations.

The real has lost more than 50 percent of its value causing food prices to soar and inflation protests.

 Nuclear agreement enthusiasm has waned.


7. Health Care

1. Hundreds of doctors and nurses at the VA receive their full federal salaries—

averaging $74,000 a year for nurses and $187,000 for doctors, not including generous federal benefits—

even if they don’t care for a single veteran. Compared to private industry?

2. end Medicare Part D drug cost  deal?