The Why and Who of Trump's Win

Analysis        Why     Who     What Voters Want     What Trump Constituents Want      Follow the Money

How's Trump's Doing      Health Care Changes   Support for Workers      Taxes    Trade

 Gorsuch Opinions      Latest News     Successes     Questions

Return to Economic Issues         Updated 7/24/18         Please link to, use to educate and share.



First the Political Parties Morphed Toward Opposing Philosophies

FDR's New Deal began the conservative voter movement  to the Republican Party.

Eisenhower made many voters feel good about the Republican Party.

Eastern Elitists image of Kennedy's administration influenced many rural Western voters

Great Society of supposed conservative Democrat Lyndon Johnson completed movement.

Second Party Animosity Grew

Nixon's Watergate increased political party animosity. Republican won two terms

Carter's Crisis of Confidence" Speech  hurt Democrats limited to one term

Reagan Revolution ended the New Deal era with political parties

Bush found
 People Vote Their Pocketbook when he increased taxes. 
Republicans win three terms

Clayton's Monica Lewinsky Scandal
increased Republic animosity. Democrats win two terms

Bush 2 wars/deficits reinforced party prejudice increasing animosity.
Republicans win two terms

Obama Presidency reinforced party prejudices substantially increasing animosity.
Democrats win two terms

Third Politicians Failed

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote

 Change in financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference. A  party’s positions on issues related to global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominance.

American Income Inequality Perfectly
Explained (Mark Blyth Interview) 11 min video


I examined the “left behind” (lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages
due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party.

Bush 2 stopped Iranians who helped us from immigrants.
Obama creates Syrian refugees but won't cross red line.

I considered the possibility that status threat felt by the of traditionally
high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) AND those who
perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to
increase support for reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.

Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed
to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.

Fourth Trump Won Because it was the Republican's Turn

See 5 Key Psychological Traits About Trump Voters

Trump Won Because of Racial Resentment

Interesting View of Trump


The Trump Effect

Professor Mark Blyth on Policy Goals, Trump, and China

Trump Won Most Red Less Dynamism States

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote

Trump Voters Understood

Bottom quintile earnings share rose from  2.2% to 12.9%
Second quintile share rose from 7% 13.9%
quintile middle-income quintile rose from 12.6% to only 15.4%
Fourth quintile’s share fell from 20.5% to 18.6%
Top quintile share fell from 57.7% to 39.3%.

Top to bottom multiple dropped from 26 times to three times

In addition work effort increased moving up the income ladder as more family members worked and more worked two jobs. Source

" wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference'’s positions on issues related to American global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America: issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominant group status  " .

;...I examine the “left behind” thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes).
Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.
Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.

Original Source 

Political Issues

Is Politics About the Money?

 Should Tea Party Share Its Debt Tea?   

Why is Poverty Controversial?

Is the Country in Trouble?

Exorbitant Dollar Privilege

The Study shows most Trump states
are becoming even less dynamic.











Two Political Eras
Political Eras One 1788 to 1892   pdf
Political Eras Two 1896 to 2016   pdf

Many Elections
Presidential Elections One 1778-1824
Presidential Elections Two 1828-1852
Presidential Elections Three 1856-1892

Presidential Elections Four 1896-1928

Presidential Elections Five 1932-72
Presidential Elections Six 1976-2012    

Rigged election . . . Sowed-Doubt and Nearly Led to Violence

See Our Democratic Federalist Republic and
 US Election Issues and Historical Demographics from our

U.S. Government and Politics Course US Election

Source US Political Economy Handbook



 What Voters Wanted

General Population Wanted

Economy and terrorism are top issues for voters in 2016

Trump's Constituency Wanted

So far Trump is four for five as LGBTQIA Rights and His Personal Moral Health Have Changed Little!


What Trump's Constituents Want

Why People Vote-for-Donald Trump

‘I don’t want the Clinton legacy continued in the White House’

‘He knows how to make deals, deals that will make America prosperous again’

‘I want conservative laws’

‘Trump is exactly what you get, with Hillary you can’t know what’s real’

‘Obama has put a wedge between the people of this country’

‘Under Trump the American dream is revived’

Health Care Changes

Budget Deals Health Care Winners and Losers
Editor's Note: The noisy fueled by talk shows never materialized.

More for Opioid fight

Extension years for CHIP four, community health centers two,
multiple Medicare payment policies significant extensions.

The CR summary The disaster relief summary The bill text

Winner:  AMA and other doctor groups.
Therapy groups. 

Pharma. The industry would be forced to pay 75 percent of the cost of drugs for seniors in Medicare’s coverage gap a year early.

Home visiting me health agencies


It Was Renewed as Part of the Tax Reduction Deal

See 3 key-things-to-know-about-chip

Latest On Support For Workers

Can Trump Solve this Difficult Problem

Editor's Note: Most


Overtime Pay Could Be Increased

Editor's Note: I believe this legislation has stalled.

Less Regulation Might Help

Editor's Question Will this Lowers Cost go to Profits, Wages, Both           

Significant Regulations Completed by Presidential Year

Number of Economically Significant Regulations Completed by Presidential Year graph




Source trump-had-fewer-deportations-than-Obama's-first-year

Editor's Question Are there many illegal immigrant workers in the hospitality business?


Many Supporters Not Working



Disruptions to NAFTA Agricultural Trade Could Especially Hurt Trump-Voting States

See Clinton seeks to re-evaluate NAFTA


Prelude Editor's Note: Trump attacked 1, 2, and 4 so we will see if managers were correct.
It will take about 1% GDP growth to pay for the tax cut and another
15 to trickle to his constitutes who want more job opportunities.
Why Markets Love Trump's-tax Cuts


Is President Trump's Tax Cut the Largest in History Yet?

Note: Most of the 2013 Obama tax cut came when

 the Bush 2 cuts scheduled to reverse were continued.


"The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 applies to taxes starting in 2018, and the  first quarterly data on tax revenue are in. Most noticeable are a major drop in corporate tax income and the increase in taxes from production and imports. (In the latter case, both excise tax income and import duty income increased.) These changes are actually quite impressive: -35% for corporate tax income, +16% for production and import tax income. Personal income taxes are slightly down while taxes on foreign entities follow trend. How does all this pan out in the aggregate? The thick black line reveals that overall tax receipts are down by close to 5%. Will this persist or is this a one-time event? Revisit this blog post in the coming months to see how this graph updates."


Infographic: What's Standing in the Way of Doing Business in the USA? | Statista


One Estimate of Corporate Use of Savings

Final GOP Tax Bill Pays for Permanent Corporate Tax Cuts With Individual Tax Increases


Early Results

When CEOs’ Equity Is About to Vest, They Cut Investment to Boost the Stock Price 2/28/18

The Trump Effect on State Taxes Steven Malanga, City Journal

Editor's Note:
Success or Failure will depend on long term economic growth
though both sides will claim victory.
Reagan tax cuts increased deficits substantially but
 in this elm 2 the economy went on a 15 year growth spurt.

Graph Source Surprise-corporate-tax-cuts-are-making-the-rich-even-richer/

Current Tax Savings

Trump Estimated Income Tax Savings
In Ten Years Individual Taxes Rates Increase


Editor's Note: If the Economy does well, rates will stay low.
As long as the rest of the world works hard, sell us high quality goods at a reasonable price,
and loans us their profits to buy sais goods at a reasonable interest rate,
not much will change for most Americans.



Editor's Thoughts from 7/21/18 Economist Magazine

Obama hoped to use NAFTA, TPP and TTIP to form a block to force China to negotiate.

Trump is speeding up Obama's attempt to control WTO  by using  unilateral reciprocal tariffs system to stop those skirting WTO rules. Europe and Japan Agree  but never play hard ball.

Trump chose a respected free trade negotiator but will he last. Some fear  Trumps settles too early and accept the shot term gain of China buying more but no enforceable rule in IP and other forms of industrial espionage If he waits too long it could turn into a power and face game and not trade rules.

 Chinese Tariffs Hit Trump Counties Harder

Trump Is Actually Right About Chinese Trade (Credit Writedowns) China's economic emergence as the global trading power it has become has damaged western economies. For details see Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s (University of Chicago) and The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment (American Economic Association)
First Opium War: Trade Deficits and the McCartney Embassy 1 of 4 videos

Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s
 (University of Chicago



The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment 
(American Economic Association).

Harley-Davidson plans to shift more production overseas to avoid European Union tariffs on its iconic motorcycles. Harley prizes its made-in-the-USA reputation as central to its appeal. But the Milwaukee company has opened factories in Brazil, India and Australia to tap international markets and hold down prices as sales falter in the U.S., Bob Tita reports. That manufacturing footprint outside the U.S. is set to expand. Harley said the 31% tariff the EU enacted last week on its motorcycles—retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs—would raise the cost of each Hog it ships there from the U.S. by about $2,200. Rather than raise prices, Harley said it would shift production of the motorcycles it sells in the EU outside the U.S. over the next 18 months.

Trump scores his first revised trade deal with South Korea

Trump Hails Revised South Korean Trade Pact but changes are few

Editor's Note: As with North Korea Nuclear Issue, Trump gets a thumps up on trade,
whether his high grade continues will be measures on his trade policy in relation to jobs.

Latest News


Balanced View 2/ 21/18

Trumps First-year Regulation Review 1/29/18

Trump-Putin Summit  
Trump Administration Halts Investigation of Profit Colleges
Trump Policies Particularly Good for Small Business 
SNAP Proposals Would Increase Food Insecurity and Hardship 4/12/18 not passed A Positive View of Trump? Video Interview begins at 7 minute mark
US slaps 'America First' tariffs on washing machines and solar panels China president's conciliatory trade gesture raises optimism 4/10/18
Women lose $4.6 billion if administration’s ‘tip stealing’ rule finalized 1/16/18
See Pennsylvania takes the lead protecting overtime 1/18/18 Editor's Note: Being a
Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
, states can counter federal actions or inactions on many issues.
US slaps 'America First' tariffs on washing machines and solar panels
Judge Supports Child Dreamers 1/16/18

7 Successes and ‘Incompletes’ for Trump’s First Full Year 1/18/181) Trump Stock Bonus’
2) Enforcing Immigration Laws

10  Worst Ways President Tromp and Congress Have betrayed Working Americans

How Trump and Congress further rigged the economy in favor of the wealthy bJosh BivensDaniel CostaCeline McNicholasHeidi Shierholz, and Marni von Wilpert • 1/12/18
1) Enacting tax cuts that overwhelmingly favor the wealthy over the average worker

2) Taking billions out of workers’ pockets by weakening or abandoning regulations that protect their pay See

Trump abandoned Labor Department's overtime pay regulations to cost workers $1.2 billion per year.

3) Blocking worker access to the courts by allowing mandatory arbitration clauses in employment contracts

10) Undercutting key worker protection agencies by nominating anti-worker leaders

3. Judicial appointments: Trump has staffed the judiciary with constitutionalists such as Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. 
4) Making VA a Meritocracy
5-7 visit

Tax cut should extend the six plus year recovery from the Great Recession
Editor's Note: Higher Economic Growth rate to negate the drop in. revenue expected would help solve the problem that Recent War/Recession Debt has not been negated by economic growth and inflation. Also is it too early to help the economy during Trump's reelection bid.
Congress let CHIP’s funding expire 102 days ago... Editor's Note:
Being a Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
, states can counter federal actions or inactions on many issues. Maryland grants access to paid sick days to 700,000 workers and their families1/12/18
Democrats agreed to support a short-term spending bill that funds the government through February 8 and reauthorizes the Children’s Health Care Program for six years in exchange for continued negotiations on immigration and budget issues.
Deregulation: Trump has cut 67 Obama-era regulations and added only three new rules. The rollback on regulations has spurred business confidence, economic activity and stock market growth. Trump said the actions have saved $8.1 billion in lifetime net regulatory costs
Trump loves farmers but keeps them guessing on NAFTA strategy

The trade-ravaged areas that voted for Trump have the most to lose from Trump’s anti-trade agenda 11/16/17
Editor's Note
Trump softens NAFTA rhetoric 1/15/18

Unbiased [If Possible] Year One Grades

Grading President Trump's First Year in Office: B!

The Senate Just Voted To Protect Banks From Class-Action Lawsuits 10/25/17

Editor's Note: States that did not tens to be poorer red states. 12/21/17

Trump Targets Obama Rule On Workers’ Tips LYDIA WHEELER
as of 1/19/18 this had not passed.
News That Needs to be substantiated as data from travel people.

Less Regulation

BUSINESS JAN 23 2018, 3:59 PM ET Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs

The major difference between the high-cost and low-cost estimates is the increased revenues from immigration. 

Consumer Protection Agency Drops High-Cost Lender Investigation 1/23/18



Food for Thought

Trump could of said we want college graduates as immigrants.

Instead he said we don't want people from area x and not Y where
x was pure white and x not so much.

Does he do this on purpose. Why?












usa-trade-tariffs/job-creator-or-job-killer-trump-angers-solar-installers-with-panel- Needs to be watched.


Given the four or five remaining candidates, voters should do one of the following.

Vote D.T. if you want to maximize the maximum as his somewhat logical attitude toward The Middle East, Education and the Wellbeing of the American Middle Class if correct could make a big difference.

Vote H.C. to maximize the minimum as she won’t change much and in spite of the rhetoric, the country is doing fine provided you ignore people like those in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma  who are afraid the Atlantic hurricane season could severely affect their life in the Sooner or Later state as Danger lurks everywhere.

Vote H.C. again if you want to minimize the maximum regret. Why?  If DT is wrong  the Ted Cruz requirement that everyone be Christian because of the coming apocalypse could be correct. The result would be D cubed or Deep Do Do for non-STEM people.

Gorsuch Opinions


"In his maiden opinion, Henson v. Santander Consumer USA, Gorsuch wrote that the proper role of the judiciary is to “apply, not amend, the work of the people’s representatives.”

Gorsuch has also expressed concerns about the federal government’s expansion of power and infringement of states’ authority. He dissented in a case dealing with federal courts exercising authority over state law claims, writing that, “The Court today clears away a fence that once marked a basic boundary between federal and state power.”

He noted that “we’ve wandered so far from the idea of a federal government of limited and enumerated powers that we’ve begun to lose sight of what it looked like in the first place.”

Gorsuch is equally concerned about states infringing the rights of individuals, an issue that has been prevalent in several free speech cases this term. During the oral argument in Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, Gorsuch was skeptical of Minnesota’s position that it could ban voters from wearing T-shirts with “some of the Bill of Rights and not others” when they enter polling places.

At the argument in NIFLA v. Becerra, he pressed California’s lawyer for an explanation of why it’s permissible for California to force private parties to advertise the state’s free abortion services, thereby burdening their free speech.

In the oral argument in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, the case of a Christian baker who declined to make custom wedding cakes for same-sex weddings, Gorsuch expressed frustration with the state’s mandate that the baker provide sensitivity training for his staff. Gorsuch asked, “Why isn’t that compelled speech and possibly in violation of his free-exercise rights? Because presumably he has to tell his staff … that his Christian beliefs are discriminatory.”

>>> Listen to “SCOTUS 101”: Elizabeth Slattery and Tiffany Bates bring you up to speed on their Supreme Court podcast.

Gorsuch hasn’t shied away from powerfully dissenting from the court’s refusal to hear important cases. He joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Peruta v. California, lamenting that the court continued to treat the Second Amendment as a “disfavored right.”

Trump pick Gorsuch casts deciding Supreme Court vote against deporting immigrant Neil Gorsuch, President Trump's first Supreme Court appointment, cast the deciding vote in a decision released Tuesday that sided with an immigrant fighting his deportation. the court said Tuesday that the law’s definition of a crime of violence is too vague.

He also joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Garco Construction v. Speer, a missed opportunity to limit Auer deference—the doctrine that gives great deference to agencies’ interpretations of their own regulations. They called this doctrine “constitutionally suspect” because it transfers “the judge’s exercise of interpretive judgment to the agency,” which is “not properly constituted to exercise the judicial power.”

Gorsuch’s fidelity to the Constitution has made liberal court watchers apoplectic. He has been under a microscope since his name first topped the list of Trump’s potential Supreme Court nominees.

Following his confirmation, this scrutiny has only increased. Seeking to sow seeds of discord, NPR’s 

Nina Totenberg claimed to have inside information about a growing feud between Gorsuch and Justice Elena Kagan. Thomas dismissed those rumors in an interview last fall.

Liberal commentators, including The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin and others, insolently criticized Gorsuch for asking too many questions during oral arguments, and fault him for frequently citing the Constitution and expressing his interest in getting back to first principles.

Elitist liberal academics pour over his opinions, looking for anything to nitpick, and encouraging people to mock his writing style with the silly hashtag #GorsuchStyle on Twitter.

But taking petty jabs at the justice shows just how little substantive criticism they can muster. In his first year, Gorsuch has shown that he works hard, writes clearly, and cares deeply about getting the law right.

When Gorsuch spoke last fall at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention, he said to great applause, “Tonight, I can report that a person can be both a publicly committed originalist and textualist and be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States. Originalism has regained its place at the table of constitutional interpretation, and textualism in the reading of statutes has triumphed. And neither one is going anywhere on my watch.”

That is something to celebrate."


Is Trumps ignoring of human rights issues when dealing with dictators similar to how
Jefferson and Madison who ignored slavery when building America's Republic?

Defending the Nation With Secretary of Defense James Mattis

Does Trump use Rhetological Fallacies to sway opinions more than most politicians and other oligarchs?

How relevant is lie-gate