The scorecard looks pretty good 2½ years into the Trump
NATO defense spending among our allies
is on the rise, largely because of Trump’s bullying.
We are sending arms to Ukraine and have not abandoned our
allies to the Russian bear.
Iran is hurting economically and on the defensive.
China faces serious U.S. pushback for the first time in
decades, especially through Trump’s tariffs.
Throughout the world, the United States is setting the
agenda again for the first time in many years.
got Power-Marshall, Interfering with Congress-1900, Took
Not Important A
Federalist vs. Confederates Retakes Center Stage,
Wage increases or Profit Decreases will be Cost of Success,
Some Progress B
Could Lose F
Public Sacrifice Required,
Economic Gains from
Change Usually Go to Oligarchs
ISIS Defeated A
Iran Will Fill the Vacancy
Goal Defeating ISIS or Continuing 17 Year Mission of
after 2½ years
Policy choice: Trump following a
maximize the maximum,
Most follow maximize the minimum,
Minimize the maximum regret not considered.
NATO defense spending
up, largely because of Trump’s bullying.
to Ukraine, haven't abandoned our allies to Russia, Iran has hurting economy
China faces serious U.S. pushback
for the first time in decades,
United States is again setting the Geopolitical agenda.
Please use as a link, and
NAFTA was a watershed in globalization in that it was the
first free trade pact between rich countries and a poor country.
NAFTA came to It symbolized the collision of blue collar workers with
consumers, corporations and geostrategic cooperation.
Opposition to it was a centerpiece of President Trump’s campaign.
President Bush 1, who was politically Mixed on NAFTA signed
the bill leaving President Bill Clinton to seek its ratification. Clinton's
decision marked a political pivot by Democrats toward globalization and
away from the party’s blue-collar base. Contemplating rust-belt
worker victory has, many Democrats now regret that pivot. The question
is the status quo or a movement away from globalization. Summarized from
WSJ Editor's Note: Inexpensive high
profits products battle a neglected middle class.
Change in financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate
preference. A party’s positions on issues related to global
dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America issues that
threaten white Americans’ sense of dominance.
I examined the “left behind” (lost jobs or experienced stagnant
due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent
Bush 2 stopped Iranians who helped us from immigrants.
Obama creates Syrian refugees but won't cross red line.
I considered the possibility that status threat felt by the of
(i.e., whites, Christians, and men)
AND those who
perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined
increase support for reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.
Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed
a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.
Fourth Trump Won Because it was
the Republican's Turn
Bottom quintile earnings share
up 2.2% to 12.9% Second quintile share up
7% 13.9% Third
quintile middle-income quintile up 12.6% to only 15.4% Fourth quintile’s share
fellfrom 20.5% to 18.6% Top
quintile share fell from 57.7% to 39.3%. Top to bottom multiple
from 26 times to three times
In addition work effort increased moving up the income ladder as
more family members worked and more worked two jobs.
Source But "...financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate
preference'....party’s positions on issues related to American global dominance and the
rise of a majority–minority America: issues that threaten white Americans’
sense of dominant group status " .
;...I examine the “left behind” thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost
jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs
punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes).
Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.
Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.
Wall Street Journal reviewed securities filings from 108 publicly traded
companies accounting for the vast
majority of an estimated $2.7 trillion in profits parked
abroad. They said they
about $143 billion so
far this year. In all, while repatriations have soared past pre-2018 levels,
independent analysts don’t
expect anywhere near the $4 trillion Mr. Trump has touted,
Richard Rubin and Theo Francis report.
to Dividends and Not Reinvested in Hard Capital
the Bush 2 cuts scheduled to reverse were continued.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
applies to taxes starting in 2018, and the
first quarterly data on tax revenue are in.
Most noticeable are a major drop in corporate tax income and the
increase in taxes from production and imports. (In the latter case, both
excise tax income and import duty income increased.) These changes are
actually quite impressive:
-35% for corporate tax income, +16% for production and import tax
income. Personal income taxes are slightly down while taxes on foreign
entities follow trend. How
does all this pan out in the aggregate? The thick black line reveals
tax receipts are down by close to 5%.
Will this persist or is this a one-time event? Revisit this blog post in
the coming months to see how this graph updates."
Success or Failure will depend on long term economic growth
though both sides will claim victory.
Reagan tax cuts increased deficits substantially but
in this elm 2 the economy went on a 15 year growth spurt.
Editor's Note: If the Economy does well,
rates will stay low.
As long as the rest of the world works hard, sell us high quality goods
reasonable price, and loans us their profits to buy their goods
at a reasonable interest rate,
not much will change for most Americans.
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO IMPROVE THE WELL BEING OF THE AVERAGE
THE LIBERALS WANTED HEALTH CARE AND THAT DIDN'T FLY. ANTONW@IX.NETCOM.COM
hoped to use NAFTA, TPP and TTIP
to form a block to force Chinese negotiation.
Trump is speeding
up Obama's attempt to control WTO by using unilateral reciprocal tariffs system to stop
those skirting WTO rules.
Europe and Japan Agree but never play hard ball.
Trump chose a
respected free trade negotiator, but will he last.
Some fear Trump will settle too early and accepts the shot term
China would buy more U.S. goods with no enforceable rules
concerning Intellectual property and other forms of industrial
If he waits too long
it could turn into a power and face game and not trade rules.
Will help U.S. Agriculture,
car part exports
to United States.
Auto worker $16/hour 2020 minimum
for 30% of auto production increases to 40% in 2023.
This is about three times the pay of the average Mexican
autoworker but it does
not apply to many U.S. workers
as most earn over $16 an hour.
Discourage manufacturing movement to
Mexico for lower wages but
will likely lead to
moderate auto price increase.
Someone must finance worker wage
increases and hopefully maintain US competitive edge.
Maintains North American supply chain
participants world competitiveness.
If this results in excessive profits then taxes should
solve the resulting inequality.
Waiver for Trump threatened 25-percent
steel and aluminum manufacturers
future business investment certainty.
Six years reviews
allows for the
chain and marketplace adjustments
needed for self-driving and electric vehicles.
Can Trump be Patient
Most Farmers Helped Little
U.S. and European trade
negotiators are chasing quick wins to cement a July cease-fire.
Problem is, even seemingly simple trade moves can take years. The sides
meet in Washington on Tuesday to start fulfilling President Trump's goal
of “zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on
non-auto industrial goods.” The focus for now is aligning American and
European regulations on goods and services, Emre Peker reports.
Because of the cost of
adapting products to slightly different standards, coordination could
yield huge savings for both sides. But this is the third U.S.-EU attempt
since 2007 to eliminate non-tariff barriers. Finding common ground on
regulations is tough. That could frustrate the U.S. side: Commerce
Secretary Wilbur Ross last week insisted on “quick negotiations that
produce tangible results.”
New NAFTA and South Korea Treaties Await Approval
"... look much like
the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada
agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas
"... a step back from free trade
toward managed trade..." they will have little practical effect limiting
cars Mexico and Canada can ship duty-free to the U.S. exceed current
shipments. "...officials have elected instead to seek broader tariff
reductions with Japan and the European Union." 12/26/18 WSJ
Harley-Davidson plans toshift
more production overseas to
avoid European Union tariffs on its iconic motorcycles. Harley prizes
its made-in-the-USA reputation as central to its appeal. But the
Milwaukee company has opened factories in Brazil, India and Australia to
tap international markets and hold down prices as sales falter in the
U.S., Bob Tita reports. That manufacturing footprint outside the U.S. is
set to expand. Harley said the 31% tariff the EU enacted last week on
its motorcycles—retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs—would
raise the cost of each Hog it ships there from the U.S. by about $2,200.
Rather than raise prices, Harley said it would shift production of
the motorcycles it sells in the EU outside the U.S. over the next 18
Note: As with
North Korea Nuclear Issue, Trump gets a thumps up on trade,
whether his high grade continues will be measures on his trade policy in
relation to jobs.
soy bean exports to China have
an astounding 98 percent since the start of the year, as Beijing
targeted the industry in retaliation to the Trump administration’s
tariffs on Chinese goods. It doesn’t look like a resolution between the
US and China is in sight, after the two sides traded
the APEC summit over the weekend.
China's Move Up the Value Add Chain Accelerated by Trade War
5. The Future
Charles W Eliot university professor
at Harvard former US Treasury secretary.
tariffs on around $200 billion in Chinese imports are set to
jump to 25% on Jan. 1, up from the 10% implemented last month.
That works out to
around $30 billion in new taxes to be paid by U.S. importers, many
of whom will pass at least some of the costs on to U.S. consumers.
smart: Economics differ on the degree to which increased
tariffs will affect things like GDP, corporate earnings, and inflation,
but few of the predictions are broadly cataclysmic.
bigger wildcard is how China will respond. Trump, buoyed by his
self-described trade successes with Canada and Mexico, is unlikely to
back down before January.
If Republicans continue
to run Congress, Trump will maintain free reign on trade, even if it
violates traditional GOP orthodoxy.
If Democrats gain
power, trade may be one area where they largely agree with the White
cannot simply apply 25% tariffs to an equal amount of U.S. imports,
because they don't total $200 billion. Other possible options (and, no,
this is not an exhaustive list):
Devalue the yuan, thus
turning them into the currency manipulator Trump already says they
Severely restrict Chinese
tourism to the U.S., which generated $33 billion in 2016.
Sell down its
trillion dollar-plus stockpile of U.S. Treasury bills, or stop
buying new ones. Either one could possibly increase U.S. government
Make it much more difficult for
U.S. businesses to operate in China, well beyond current concerns
about IP theft and requirements that U.S. tech companies form joint
ventures with local partners.
bottom line: Trump has made America’s policy known. China’s
response will determine if this becomes a full-blown trade war. —
upfor Dan's daily deals newsletterAxiosPro
Felix Salmon's weekly business lookahead Axios Edge here.
Meeting US demands
would have altered by China's growth about
U.S. companies annual profits
would have increased by
about 0.1 percent.
This is not to say that China is not a threat to
the international order. If, the United States loses its lead in
information technology, artificial intelligence and biotech, the
trauma will be magnified.
While it might be unacceptable to the United
States to be greatly surpassed in economic scale, does it
have the means to stop it?
China appears to be willing to accommodate the
United States on specific trade issues as long as the United
States accepts its right to flourish and grow, knowing that
sheer weight of numbers will make it the clear world’s largest
economy before long.
That is a deal the United States should take
while it can. It can bluster but it cannot, in an open world,
suppress the Chinese economy. Trying to do so risks
strengthening the most anti-American elements in Beijing.
US leverage can accomplish something important
deepens convincing the Chinese that the United States is capable
of taking yes for an answer, and go beyond small-bore
commercialism. We can hope, but we should not hold our breath.
Blumberg has some game theory insight
to watch and expect.
An inherently cooperative game is
increasingly played uncooperatively:
Most economists worry about the implications for individual
countries and the system as a whole.
Trade wars tend to create a strong stagflation impulses,
disrupting growth and increasing costs and prices.
The conflicts complicate domestic policy management and
increase the risk of financial instability.
They also risk causing serious fractures to the
international economic and financial architecture,
Is the current round of mounting trade tensions a means to a
better end — still-free but fairer trade
or an end in itself.
Further escalation is the most
likely outcome for now:
For trade tensions to be a means to a better end, behaviors
changes must be visible, verifiable and durable.
This is particularly true of intellectual property, market
access limits and joint venture requirements,
Only durable change will stop increased risky US pressure
regardless of the domestic costs.
The threats are a full-blown trade war, increased
geopolitical strains, financial disruptions like not buying
U.S. government securities and participation in the dollar
The game is inherently unbalanced:
This uncooperative game is well placed for a US relative win
Trade tensions are more damaging to China, whose growth
model is more dependent on foreign market,
This advantage is already evident in the
performance of the equity and currency markets.
It is like President
Ronald Reagan 1980's military spending
race with the Soviet Union.
America was destined to win at
China will likely ultimately
agree to some U.S. requests
It is the least costly strategy as China seeks a
return to a cooperative approach to trade.
It may not be a first best outcome for China, but it’s a lo
better than a full-blown trade war.
Public accusations and
counter-accusations make trust difficult
Restoring greater trust requires behind-closed-door meetings
Sooner these meetings resume in earnest, the lower the risks
of a very costly global trade war.
You can get there faster through
trade grievances are shared by other countries
This multilateral tone helps safeguard an international
architecture needed to modernize trade rules.
Implementation is trickier than
design: These steps are very
difficult to calibrate. Trust is low, both in terms of
domestic politics and between countries. A good
understanding of other nations’ reactions is essential, as
well as an openness to course correction as an uncooperative
game becomes increasingly unpredictable. Moreover, on the
domestic front, well-communicated, timely and coordinated
White House decision making is key to maintaining the needed
buy-in from broad segments of the population and Congress.what-game-theory-says-about-trump-s-trade-strategy
175 Years of
U.S.-based Massachusetts Institute of Technology is to terminate its
research and funding links with
Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE in light of recent federal probes.
be the biggest beneficiary of newly-imposed US sanctions on Iranian
oil exports. Last month, Russia pumped an average of 11.4 million
barrels of the black stuff per day – a 30-year record – amid
higher global oil prices and a push in many countries to replace Iranian
U.S.-based Massachusetts Institute of Technology is to terminate its
research and funding links with
Chinese tech giants Huawei and ZTE in light of recent federal
Donald Trump plans to end key trade preferences for
India and Turkey which allow duty-free entry for about 2,000 products,
including car parts. India was the biggest beneficiary in 2017, with
Turkey fifth. The president rapped India's non-tariff barriers on U.S.
goods and claimed Turkey is no longer an emerging market. Investors
Gross corporate taxes have fallen
first 11 months of fiscal year,
while individual income-tax receipts are up
3) Blocking worker access to the courts by allowing mandatory
arbitration clauses in employment contracts
10) Undercutting key worker protection agencies by nominating
3. Judicial appointments: Trump
has staffed the judiciary with constitutionalists such as Supreme Court
Justice Neil Gorsuch. 4)
Making VA a Meritocracy
Tax cut should extend the six plus year recovery from the Great Recession Editor's Note: Higher Economic
Growth rate to negate the drop in. revenue expected would help solve the
Recent War/Recession Debt has not been negated by economic growth
and inflation. Also is it too early to help the economy during
Trump's reelection bid.
67 Obama-era regulations and
added only three new rules. The rollback on regulations has spurred
business confidence, economic activity and stock market growth.
Trump said the actions have saved $8.1 billion in lifetime net
Trump could of said we want college
graduates as immigrants.
Instead he said we don't want people from
area x and not Y where
x was pure white and x not so much.
Does he do this on purpose. Why?
Like Tariffs, this will take a long time, will
U.S. sanctions have driven the price of oil and the
Russia with expensive crude and a cheaper currency,
a combination that is helping its economy. The price of oil,
Russia’s main export, has risen almost 14% since mid-August, largely
because of coming U.S. sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, the ruble
has declined 15% since April, when Washington imposed sanctions on
Russia for alleged meddling in U.S. elections and other aggressions.
So, just as the price of dollar-denominated oil rises, those
greenbacks are worth more when translated back into a weaker ruble,
Avantika Chilkoti reports.
Given the four or five remaining candidates, voters should
do one of the following.
Vote D.T. if you want to maximize the maximum as his
somewhat logical attitude toward The Middle East, Education and the Wellbeing of
the American Middle Class if correct could make a big difference.
Vote H.C. to maximize the minimum as she won’t change much
and in spite of the rhetoric, the country is doing fine provided you ignore
people like those in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma who are afraid the Atlantic
hurricane season could severely affect their life in the Sooner or Later state
as Danger lurks everywhere.
Vote H.C. again if you want to minimize the maximum regret.
Why? If DT is wrong the Ted Cruz requirement that everyone be Christian
because of the coming apocalypse could be correct. The result would be D cubed
or Deep Do Do for non-STEM people.
"In his maiden
opinion, Henson v. Santander Consumer USA, Gorsuch wrote that the
proper role of the judiciary is to “apply, not amend, the work of the
Gorsuch has also expressed concerns about the federal government’s
expansion of power and infringement of states’ authority. Hedissented
in a case dealing with federal courts exercising authority over
state law claims, writing that, “The Court today clears away a fence
that once marked a basic boundary between federal and state power.”
He noted that “we’ve wandered so far from the idea of a federal
government of limited and enumerated powers that we’ve begun to lose
sight of what it looked like in the first place.”
Gorsuch is equally concerned about states infringing the rights of
individuals, an issue that has been prevalent in several free speech
cases this term. During the oral argument in Minnesota
Voters Alliance v. Mansky, Gorsuch was skeptical of Minnesota’s
position that it could ban voters from wearing T-shirts with “some of
the Bill of Rights and not others” when they enter polling places.
At the argument in NIFLA
v. Becerra, he pressed California’s lawyer for an explanation of
why it’s permissible for California to force private parties to
advertise the state’s free abortion services, thereby burdening their
In the oral argument in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights
Commission, the case of a Christian baker who declined to make custom
wedding cakes for same-sex weddings, Gorsuch expressed frustration
with the state’s mandate that the baker provide sensitivity training
for his staff.Gorsuch
asked, “Why isn’t that compelled speech and possibly in violation
of his free-exercise rights? Because presumably he has to tell his
staff … that his Christian beliefs are discriminatory.”
Gorsuch hasn’t shied away from powerfully dissenting from the court’s
refusal to hear important cases. He joined Thomas’ dissent from denial
in Peruta v. California, lamenting that the court continued to treat
the Second Amendment as a “disfavored right.”
He also joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Garco Construction v.
Speer, a missed opportunity to limit Auer deference—the doctrine that
gives great deference to agencies’ interpretations of their own
regulations. They called this doctrine “constitutionally suspect”
because it transfers “the judge’s exercise of interpretive judgment to
the agency,” which is “not properly constituted to exercise the
Gorsuch’s fidelity to the Constitution has made liberal court watchers
apoplectic. He has been under a microscope since his name first topped
the list of Trump’s potential Supreme Court nominees.
Following his confirmation, this scrutiny has only increased. Seeking
to sow seeds of discord, NPR’s
Liberal commentators, including The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin and
others, insolently criticized
Gorsuch for asking too many questions during oral arguments, and
fault him for frequently citing the Constitution and expressing his
interest in getting back to first principles.
But taking petty jabs at the justice shows just how little substantive
criticism they can muster. In his first year, Gorsuch has shown that
he works hard, writes clearly, and cares deeply about getting the law
When Gorsuch spoke last fall at the Federalist Society’s National
Lawyers Convention, he said to great applause, “Tonight, I can report
that a person can be both a publicly committed originalist and
textualist and be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States. Originalism has regained its place at the table of constitutional
interpretation, and textualism in the reading of statutes has
triumphed. And neither one is going anywhere on my watch.”
Summary 12 random stratified counties that
change vote from Obama to Trump sampled
Rotary Club related college graduates
who lived in areas with fewer college graduates,
less than 29.8%, voted for Trump. even the college
graduates. More than 29.8% voted Hillary
His voters had high aspirations for
country, felt good about their personal lives,
but community was in social and economic carnage.
Girl Gun Power among
varied population some with college, most stable lives <45
voted for 2nd Amendment protection to protect self and
because of family
Many blue collar normally Democratic
because unhappy with community carnage.
Editor's Note: Many who
value heritage unhappy with liberal attitude toward American
Trump’s pullout out of the 2015 deal made by the U.S., China,
France, Russia, Germany, the U.K. and the European Union with Iran that
would severely limit Iran's
nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief.
Next came menacing tweets from Trump threatening
Tehran with historic consequences
This week the U.S. reemployed sanctions against Iran,
targeting financial transactions, imports of raw materials, and the auto
and airplane sectors.
In November vital oil exports will be sanctioned.
Trump claims he wants a tougher deal that would require
Iran give up nuclear ambitions and curb interference in Syria and
Having reneged, Trump has left Tehran without
Le Monde (France)
The usually erratic Trump has relentlessness pursued a conflict policy
China Daily (China)
The U.S. stands alone in its attempt to impose sanctions because
international monitors report full compliance.
Other signatories are not leaving.
China will continue to buy Iranian
EU will protect companies hit
with American sanctions of closing U.S. market to European firms
that trades with Iran.
Iran could shut down 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through
the Strait of Hormuz.
Sara Saidi in L’Orient–Le
Jour (Lebanon) Sanctions are already hurting Iranians.
Multinational companies that
do business with the U.S. are closing Iranian operations.
The real has lost more than 50
percent of its value causing food prices to soar and inflation
agreement enthusiasm has waned.
7. Health Care
1. Hundreds of doctors and nurses at the VA receive their
full federal salaries—
averaging $74,000 a year for nurses and $187,000 for doctors,
not including generous federal benefits—
even if they don’t care for a single veteran.
Compared to private industry?