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The Why and Who of Trump's Win

Analysis      Why       Who     What Voters Want     What Trump Constituents Want

How's Trump's Doing      Health Care Changes   Support for Workers      Taxes     Gorsuch Opinions    Latest News     Successes     Questions   

Return to Economic Issues         Updated 4/12/18         Please link to, use to educate and share.


Why

First the Political Parties Morphed Toward Opposing Philosophies

FDR's New Deal began the conservative voter movement  to the Republican Party.
Truman Doctrine  moved more conservatives. Democrats five terms

Eisenhower made many voters feel good about the Republican Party. Republicans two terms

Eastern Elitists image of Kennedy's administration influenced many rural, Western voters .
Great Society of supposed conservative Democrat Lyndon Johnson completed movement.
Democrats three terms

Second Party Animosity Grew

Nixon's Watergate increased political party animosity. Republican won two terms

Carter's Crisis of Confidence" Speech  hurt Democrats limited to one term

Reagan Revolution ended the New Deal era with political parties
 

Bush found
 People Vote Their Pocketbook when he increased taxes. 
Republicans win three terms

Clayton's Monica Lewinsky Scandal
increased Republic animosity. Democrats win two terms

Bush 2 wars/deficits reinforced party prejudice increasing animosity.
Republicans win two terms

Obama Presidency reinforced party prejudices substantially increasing animosity.
Democrats win two terms

Third Politicians Failed

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote

 Change in financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference. A  party’s positions on issues related to global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominance.

American Income Inequality Perfectly Explained (Mark Blyth Interview) 11 min video

Abstract

I examined the “left behind” (lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party.

I considered the possibility that status threat felt by the of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) AND those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.

Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.

Fourth Trump Won Because it was the Republican's Turn

See 5 Key Psychological Traits About Trump Voters

Trump Won Because of Racial Resentment

Interesting View of Trump

Who

The Trump Effect

Professor Mark Blyth on Policy Goals, Trump, and China

Trump Won Most Red Less Dynamism States

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote

"...financial wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference'....party’s positions on issues related to American global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America: issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominant group status  " .

Abstract
;...I examine the “left behind” thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes).
Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America’s global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past.
Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.

Political Issues

Is Politics About the Money?

 Should Tea Party Share Its Debt Tea?   

Why is Poverty Controversial?

Is the Country in Trouble?

Exorbitant Dollar Privilege

The Study shows most Trump states
are becoming even less dynamic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Two Political Eras
Political Eras One 1788 to 1892   pdf
Political Eras Two 1896 to 2016   pdf

Many Elections
Presidential Elections One 1778-1824
Presidential Elections Two 1828-1852
Presidential Elections Three 1856-1892

Presidential Elections Four 1896-1928

Presidential Elections Five 1932-72
Presidential Elections Six 1976-2012    

Rigged election . . . Sowed-Doubt and Nearly Led to Violence

See Our Democratic Federalist Republic and
 US Election Issues and Historical Demographics from our

U.S. Government and Politics Course US Election

Source US Political Economy Handbook

 

 

 What Voters Wanted

General Population Wanted

Economy and terrorism are top issues for voters in 2016

Trump's Constituency Wanted

So far Trump is four for five as LGBTQIA Rights and His Personal Moral Health Have Changed Little!

voterstudygroup.org/publications/2016

 

What Trump's Constituents Want

Why People Vote-for-Donald Trump

‘I don’t want the Clinton legacy continued in the White House’

‘He knows how to make deals, deals that will make America prosperous again’

‘I want conservative laws’

‘Trump is exactly what you get, with Hillary you can’t know what’s real’

‘Obama has put a wedge between the people of this country’

‘Under Trump the American dream is revived’

Health Care Changes

Budget Deals Health Care Winners and Losers
Editor's Note: The noisy fueled by talk shows never materialized.

More for Opioid fight

Extension years for CHIP four, community health centers two,
multiple Medicare payment policies significant extensions.

BUT MONEY IS LEAVING THE PREVENTION FUND
The CR summary The disaster relief summary The bill text

WINNERS AND LOSERS
Winner:  AMA and other doctor groups.
Therapy groups. 

Losers
Pharma. The industry would be forced to pay 75 percent of the cost of drugs for seniors in Medicare’s coverage gap a year early.

Home visiting me health agencies

 

It Was Renewed as Part of the Tax Reduction Deal

See 3 key-things-to-know-about-chip

 

Latest On Support For Workers

Many Supporters Not Working

Overtime Pay Could Be Increased

Editor's Note: I believe this legislation has stalled.

Less Regulation Might Help

Editor's Question Will this Lowers Cost go to Profits, Wages, Both           
Source


Significant Regulations Completed by Presidential Year graph

Number of Economically Significant Regulations Completed by Presidential Year graph

 Source

 

us.deportations.2008.2017

Source trump-had-fewer-deportations-than-Obama's-first-year

Editor's Question Are there many illegal immigrant workers in the hospitality business?

See NEW DHS NUMBERS SHOW
TRUMP IS DEPORTING LONGTIME U.S. RESIDENTS, RIPPING FAMILIES APART

 

 

Disruptions to NAFTA Agricultural Trade Could Especially Hurt Trump-Voting States

See Clinton seeks to re-evaluate NAFTA

 

Taxes
Prelude Editor's Note: Trump attacked 1, 2, and 4 so we will see if managers were correct.
It will take about 1% GDP growth to pay for the tax cut and another
15 to trickle to his constitutes who want more job opportunities.
Why Markets Love Trump's-tax Cuts

 

 

 

Is President Trump's Tax Cut the Largest in History Yet?

Note: Most of the 2013 Obama tax cut came when

 the Bush 2 cuts scheduled to reverse were continued.

 

 
Infographic: What's Standing in the Way of Doing Business in the USA? | Statista

 

One Estimate of Corporate Use of Savings

Final GOP Tax Bill Pays for Permanent Corporate Tax Cuts With Individual Tax Increases

Source

Early Results

When CEOs’ Equity Is About to Vest, They Cut Investment to Boost the Stock Price 2/28/18

The Trump Effect on State Taxes Steven Malanga, City Journal

Editor's Note:
Success or Failure will depend on long term economic growth
though both sides will claim victory.
Reagan tax cuts increased deficits substantially but
 in this elm 2 the economy went on a 15 year growth spurt.

Graph Source Surprise-corporate-tax-cuts-are-making-the-rich-even-richer/

Current Tax Savings

Trump Estimated Income Tax Savings
In Ten Years Individual Taxes Rates Increase

 

Editor's Note: If the Economy does well, rates will stay low.
As long as the rest of the world works hard, sell us high quality goods at a reasonable price,
and loans us their profits to buy sais goods at a reasonable interest rate,
not much will change for most Americans.

Question
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO IMPROVE THE WELL BEING OF THE AVERAGE PERSON?
THE LIBERALS WANTED HEALTH CARE AND THAT DIDN'T FLY.
ANTONW@IX.NETCOM.COM

Latest News

Successes

Balanced View FEBRUARY 21, 2018

Trump admin Halts Investigation of Profit Colleges  
SNAP Proposals Would Increase Food Insecurity and Hardship 4/12/18 not passed A Positive View of Trump? Video Interview begins at 7 minute mark
US slaps 'America First' tariffs on washing machines and solar panels China president's conciliatory trade gesture raises optimism 4/10/18
Women lose $4.6 billion if administration’s ‘tip stealing’ rule finalized 1/16/18
See Pennsylvania takes the lead protecting overtime 1/18/18 Editor's Note: Being a
Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
, states can counter federal actions or inactions on many issues.
US slaps 'America First' tariffs on washing machines and solar panels
Judge Supports Child Dreamers 1/16/18

7 Successes and ‘Incompletes’ for Trump’s First Full Year 1/18/181) Trump Stock Bonus’
2) Enforcing Immigration Laws

10  Worst Ways President Tromp and Congress Have betrayed Working Americans

How Trump and Congress further rigged the economy in favor of the wealthy bJosh BivensDaniel CostaCeline McNicholasHeidi Shierholz, and Marni von Wilpert • 1/12/18
1) Enacting tax cuts that overwhelmingly favor the wealthy over the average worker

2) Taking billions out of workers’ pockets by weakening or abandoning regulations that protect their pay See

Trump abandoned Labor Department's overtime pay regulations to cost workers $1.2 billion per year.

3) Blocking worker access to the courts by allowing mandatory arbitration clauses in employment contracts

10) Undercutting key worker protection agencies by nominating anti-worker leaders

3. Judicial appointments: Trump has staffed the judiciary with constitutionalists such as Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. 
4) Making VA a Meritocracy
5-7 visit
Source

Tax cut should extend the six plus year recovery from the Great Recession
Editor's Note: Higher Economic Growth rate to negate the drop in. revenue expected would help solve the problem that Recent War/Recession Debt has not been negated by economic growth and inflation. Also is it too early to help the economy during Trump's reelection bid.
Congress let CHIP’s funding expire 102 days ago... Editor's Note:
Being a Democratic Federalist Capitalistic Republic
, states can counter federal actions or inactions on many issues. Maryland grants access to paid sick days to 700,000 workers and their families1/12/18
1/22/18
Democrats agreed to support a short-term spending bill that funds the government through February 8 and reauthorizes the Children’s Health Care Program for six years in exchange for continued negotiations on immigration and budget issues.
Deregulation: Trump has cut 67 Obama-era regulations and added only three new rules. The rollback on regulations has spurred business confidence, economic activity and stock market growth. Trump said the actions have saved $8.1 billion in lifetime net regulatory costs
Trump loves farmers but keeps them guessing on NAFTA strategy
.

The trade-ravaged areas that voted for Trump have the most to lose from Trump’s anti-trade agenda 11/16/17
Editor's Note
Trump softens NAFTA rhetoric 1/15/18

Unbiased [If Possible] Year One Grades

Grading President Trump's First Year in Office: B!

The Senate Just Voted To Protect Banks From Class-Action Lawsuits 10/25/17

18-states-will-increase-their-minimum-wages-on-january
Editor's Note: States that did not tens to be poorer red states. 12/21/17

Trump Targets Obama Rule On Workers’ Tips LYDIA WHEELER
as of 1/19/18 this had not passed.
 
 
News That Needs to be substantiated as data from travel people.

Less Regulation

BUSINESS JAN 23 2018, 3:59 PM ET Tourism to U.S. under Trump is down, costing $4.6B and 40,000 jobs
 
 
higher-immigration-keeps-social-security-solvent-2810.html

The major difference between the high-cost and low-cost estimates is the increased revenues from immigration. 

Consumer Protection Agency Drops High-Cost Lender Investigation 1/23/18

 

 

Food for Thought

Trump could of said we want college graduates as immigrants.

Instead he said we don't want people from area x and not Y where
x was pure white and x not so much.

Does he do this on purpose. Why?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

usa-trade-tariffs/job-creator-or-job-killer-trump-angers-solar-installers-with-panel- Needs to be watched.

 

Given the four or five remaining candidates, voters should do one of the following.

Vote D.T. if you want to maximize the maximum as his somewhat logical attitude toward The Middle East, Education and the Wellbeing of the American Middle Class if correct could make a big difference.

Vote H.C. to maximize the minimum as she won’t change much and in spite of the rhetoric, the country is doing fine provided you ignore people like those in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma  who are afraid the Atlantic hurricane season could severely affect their life in the Sooner or Later state as Danger lurks everywhere.

Vote H.C. again if you want to minimize the maximum regret. Why?  If DT is wrong  the Ted Cruz requirement that everyone be Christian because of the coming apocalypse could be correct. The result would be D cubed or Deep Do Do for non-STEM people.

Gorsuch Opinions

Source

"In his maiden opinion, Henson v. Santander Consumer USA, Gorsuch wrote that the proper role of the judiciary is to “apply, not amend, the work of the people’s representatives.”

Gorsuch has also expressed concerns about the federal government’s expansion of power and infringement of states’ authority. He dissented in a case dealing with federal courts exercising authority over state law claims, writing that, “The Court today clears away a fence that once marked a basic boundary between federal and state power.”

He noted that “we’ve wandered so far from the idea of a federal government of limited and enumerated powers that we’ve begun to lose sight of what it looked like in the first place.”

Gorsuch is equally concerned about states infringing the rights of individuals, an issue that has been prevalent in several free speech cases this term. During the oral argument in Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, Gorsuch was skeptical of Minnesota’s position that it could ban voters from wearing T-shirts with “some of the Bill of Rights and not others” when they enter polling places.

At the argument in NIFLA v. Becerra, he pressed California’s lawyer for an explanation of why it’s permissible for California to force private parties to advertise the state’s free abortion services, thereby burdening their free speech.

In the oral argument in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, the case of a Christian baker who declined to make custom wedding cakes for same-sex weddings, Gorsuch expressed frustration with the state’s mandate that the baker provide sensitivity training for his staff. Gorsuch asked, “Why isn’t that compelled speech and possibly in violation of his free-exercise rights? Because presumably he has to tell his staff … that his Christian beliefs are discriminatory.”

>>> Listen to “SCOTUS 101”: Elizabeth Slattery and Tiffany Bates bring you up to speed on their Supreme Court podcast.

Gorsuch hasn’t shied away from powerfully dissenting from the court’s refusal to hear important cases. He joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Peruta v. California, lamenting that the court continued to treat the Second Amendment as a “disfavored right.”

Trump pick Gorsuch casts deciding Supreme Court vote against deporting immigrant Neil Gorsuch, President Trump's first Supreme Court appointment, cast the deciding vote in a decision released Tuesday that sided with an immigrant fighting his deportation. the court said Tuesday that the law’s definition of a crime of violence is too vague.

He also joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Garco Construction v. Speer, a missed opportunity to limit Auer deference—the doctrine that gives great deference to agencies’ interpretations of their own regulations. They called this doctrine “constitutionally suspect” because it transfers “the judge’s exercise of interpretive judgment to the agency,” which is “not properly constituted to exercise the judicial power.”

Gorsuch’s fidelity to the Constitution has made liberal court watchers apoplectic. He has been under a microscope since his name first topped the list of Trump’s potential Supreme Court nominees.

Following his confirmation, this scrutiny has only increased. Seeking to sow seeds of discord, NPR’s 

Nina Totenberg claimed to have inside information about a growing feud between Gorsuch and Justice Elena Kagan. Thomas dismissed those rumors in an interview last fall.

Liberal commentators, including The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin and others, insolently criticized Gorsuch for asking too many questions during oral arguments, and fault him for frequently citing the Constitution and expressing his interest in getting back to first principles.

Elitist liberal academics pour over his opinions, looking for anything to nitpick, and encouraging people to mock his writing style with the silly hashtag #GorsuchStyle on Twitter.

But taking petty jabs at the justice shows just how little substantive criticism they can muster. In his first year, Gorsuch has shown that he works hard, writes clearly, and cares deeply about getting the law right.

When Gorsuch spoke last fall at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention, he said to great applause, “Tonight, I can report that a person can be both a publicly committed originalist and textualist and be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States. Originalism has regained its place at the table of constitutional interpretation, and textualism in the reading of statutes has triumphed. And neither one is going anywhere on my watch.”

That is something to celebrate."

Questions

Is Trumps ignoring of human rights issues when dealing with dictators similar to how
Jefferson and Madison who ignored slavery when building America's Republic?

Defending the Nation With Secretary of Defense James Mattis

Does Trump use Rhetological Fallacies to sway opinions more than most politicians and other oligarchs?

How relevant is lie-gate