Ends, U.S. Dominance Continues Option 1
2018 Begins A New
Peter Zeihan on Power and Global Disorder in 2018 22
See book videos
The Accidental Superpower
The Absent Superpower
Peter bases his analysis on the US
no longer maintaining global order
which only existed to win the now over for 25 years Cold
Designing a US Foreign Policy
Friends and Family Plan
A Strong U.S. Position
Requirements for Success
Expected Global Conflicts
Very Recent Changes
1-1 Designing a
US Foreign Policy
what we want requires
Political Party System at a time when political
parties are in a reinvention process
which last happened in the 1930's. It took 12 years.
Have a Conversation on
replacing the Breton Woods trading system
which was designed to win the Cold War by fostering
Set a Foreign
Friends and Family
agreement of countries that are cultural and
politically similar to US.
Canada, New Zeeland, United and probably Mexico
from a next group countries needing little
France, Japan, India, Thailand and some other southeast
TAKE IT or
LEAVE IT message to Germany, China, Russia, Korea
1-3 A Strong U.S.
1. Largest strip
of high-quality arable land in the world
2. Most Navigable
Water ways in the world
3. Control best
parts of a continent with moats on either side
4. If US trading
system breaks down, US suffers the least! but
5. Trade is how we
subsidized the Global system so getting NAFTA correct is
6. US delusion of
China being the next super power,
given she has only managed to hold together for 300
years, is amusing.
that is productive and protected from outside forces
U.S very good , Georgia very bad
Favorable Demography for high growth with
younger members spending, mature members earning and
US doing well as baby boomers had kids, the Millennials
Financial burden of the US relatively small baby boomer
demographic will end
China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy,
have the highest tax paying work force they will ever
Only Spain and GB are not past the point of Demographic
The others are "terminal countries."
Few countries, maybe the French and New Zeeland have a
3. Ample energy to
fuel the economy as dependency put a governor on grown
analysis was reported in Accidental Superpower.
Russia, a seriously terminal country is our biggest fear
and we should keep relations reasonable positive.
She is an economic and demographic tragic disaster and
will probably not exist as a country within 40 years.
Bush 2 and Obama's Russian relations were criminally
world's protector means little need to
contain China, that is Japans concern
contain Iran, that is Turkey and the Saudis concern
Nukes will be used but not against us as no one is close
to our equal except Russia, which is a US concern.
Korean nukes are only a delivery problem,
there existence is a South Korean/Japanese worry
Gulf between Iran and Saudis
Eurasian Fringe War with Russia vs. Germans, Poles,
Scandinavians and Brits
Naval conflict between China, Japan S Korea and Taiwan
as they try to keep themselves
fueled as middle east and Russian supplies become harder
to come by.
Very Recent Changes
faster because Obama did less than expected,
almost as if he did not want to have conversations with
Near the end he new how important factors were
How China's economy worked
Why Russia interfered with the election system,
Solar energy needs a backup
What a good tax policy would look like
Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
With Trump, no understanding but a commitment some
Which is worse?
US has forced a
acceleration of adjustments by world players
Brexit as the European Union disintegration accelerates
Chinas need for rapid growth while US still managing
Xi tries to cooperate as without free trade, china fall