Successful US Foreign Policy
Steps to Determine
What We Want
1) Fixing the
Political Party System at a time when political
in a reinvention process last happened in the 1930's. It took 12 years.
2) Need a Conversation
replacing the Breton Woods trading system
1. It was designed by
the U.S. to win the Cold War by fostering
a. U.S. would open her markets providing friends with export
revenue from the U.S.
b. Resulting U.S. trade deficit would provide the world with
dollars, a de factor world currency.
c. U.S. Navy would protect trade routes for all her friends.
d. U.S. would have complete freedom when fighting the cold
Replacing Brenton Woods
the Cold War by Bush 1 but
it stopped when the American voters elected domestic
Add Bush 2, who listened to the neocons and went after a few
Obama, who knew a lot, but really failed to coordinate
4. Set a Foreign
Productive geography protected from outside forces.
U.S easily leads the world. Other major powers
geopolitical factors are poor, if not terrible.
for high growth
younger members spending,
mature members earning/investing
and few older members.
U.S. doing well
relative to almost everyone as
baby boomers had Millennials.
Financial burden of the U.S. relatively small
because baby boomer
social needs slowly erode.
China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy,
have the highest tax paying work force they will ever
Only Spain and GB are not
quite past the point of Demographic
The others are "terminal countries."
other than maybe the French and New Zeeland, have a
and have reliance on export growth.
analysis was reported in Accidental Superpower by Peter
Ends, US Dominates
from works of
agreement of countries that are cultural and
Canada, New Zeeland, United Kingdom and probably Mexico.
from a next group countries needing little
France, Japan, India, Thailand and some other southeast
U.S. strong and
growing Hegemony allows a Take It or Leave It
Germany, China, Russia, and Korea
U.S. Geopolitical Position is First
1. Largest strip
of high-quality arable land in the world
2. Most Navigable
Waterways in the world
3. Control best
parts of a continent with moats on either side and open
spaces to the North and South
4. If U.S. trading
system breaks down, US suffers the least because it
exports a small portion of GDP.
5. Trade is how we
subsidized the Global system so getting NAFTA correct is
6. People thinking
China is the next super power are "delusional" as
she has none of the above advantages
and she has only managed to hold
together for 300 years. As her position continues to
she will enhance her totalitarian controls.
What Will Matter Are Water, Energy, Soil and
Food--and a Shared National Purpose
1. Nuclear armed
Russia, a seriously terminal country, is our biggest fear.
We e should keep relations reasonable positive.
She is an economic and demographic disaster waiting to
Within 40 years
will probably not exist as a country.
Bush 2 and Obama's Russian relations were criminally
Korean nukes are a worry for South
because bombs are only a delivery problem away.
3. China is Japans concern
to contain China will diminish as US withdraws as
4. Iran is the concern of Turkey
the Saudis. Editor's Note: add Israel
5. Nukes will be used, but not against the U.S.
as no one is close
to our military power except Russia, which should be a concern.
Gulf between Iran and Saudis
3. Eurasian Fringe War with Russia vs. Germans, Poles,
Scandinavians and the Brits
4. Naval conflict between China, Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan
as they try to
fueled as middle east and Russian supplies dwindle.
We Repeating Post WW 2 Mistakes video
unfolding fast because Obama did less than expected.
He appeared to not want to have conversations with
Near the end he knew how important factors were
How China's economy works, why Russia interfered with
the election system,
the need for a solar energy backup and the design for a
good tax policy.
But, Obama did not care enough to have related policies.
He had understanding but no policy.
Trump has no understanding, but a commitment to some
Which is worse?
disengagement, which began before Trump,
has forced a
acceleration of world player adjustments.
a. Brexit and the European Union disintegration.
China's need for continued world growth is dependent upon U.S. managing World security.
If possible, Xi will cooperate with U.S. as without free trade,
will fall apart or hunker down to protect the Communist Party.
d. What could trigger a disastrous Chinese credit adjustment.
P. Zeihan - 2019
It is too late for slowing the expanding credit bubble.
Editor's Note: In 9/19 they
Helpful demographics have peaked and will be negative in 5 years.
One Belt is a place to dump excess productive capability as
was exporting cheap consumer goods.
1) Internal Causes:
Demographics over the
next 5 years will cause current economic disinflation to
into Japanese style deflation which will affect asset prices and political stability.
2) External Causes:
Russian's expands local controls faster causing a
world energy crisis.
Saudis, Turkey or Israel and Iranians go at it causing an energy crisis.
Japan, given the recent trade deal with US is signed, tries to reinsert local controls during an axis
If US changes the rules, you can pick your crisis
1. China can not replace US hegemony because, as a mass importer of raw materials
exporter of finished goods, she is too dependent on others.
2. Expansion would require taking on Japan's modern navy with almost no chance of success.
lockdown was to eliminate possible political opposition.
If necessary, China's Communists will leave global community to maintain power.
Responding to China: A
U.S. Government Not Designed
for Governmental Grand
a. Separation of powers
b. Many want limited
c. Private Sector Renewals
d. Exception After WW
1. The Long Telegram
described a very aggressive
Result was a 40-year
coordinated policy of
Containment worked-The Cold War ended peacefully.
Fragility of both Soviet
Economy and Society caused
implosion from within.
China requires a very
Trump Would Say We Have a
Strategy issued in 12/2017
National Defense Strategy
issued in 1/2018
Future of US Defense
issued mid 2018
Replaced by Strategic
a. Engagement-you engage and
one side backs down.
b. Competition is more
adversarial but no
c. Rules to be determined
Washington's Latest Attitude
any kind of convergence of societies
A move toward McCarthyism in
U.S. and Australia is not good Foreign
Geopolitical Factors for
Next Four Years
a. China under Xi Jinping
"will resist any forces:
economic, social, political,
any way challenge the
long-term survival of the
b. Strong-man, long-time
party member, and assistant
toward markets which rankled
Phase 1 of agreement
Foreign Direct Investment:
China stable at $15
billion/year and stock of
US down substantially to
about $2.5 billion/year.
Technology: US leads
in semi conductors and China
leads in 5G.
interconnection important to
recent negative trade
balance means more market
liberalization because of
Under Xi Jinping
source at 20 min mark
1/2020 a response to
Destined For War
Strategic Engagement is
Decoupling is not
happening as forty years of
trade and student
though slowing, continues.
different than US-USSR Cold
US Fundamental Ideological
Chasm with Russia non
existent with China.
US had no economic
engagement with Russia while
US/China are substantial
US vs. Russia proxy wars
were fought through third
countries in Latin America,
Terms like Cold War 2 can
lead to contingency plans,
operational plans, the
creation of reality.
perspective is required to
keep US anchored to reality.
China sees the world through a lens
Red lines must be
determined and privately
communicated by Two Leaders
Mutual Beneficial issues
that are difficult but
be define and negotiated.
Example: Denuclearizing North Korea
Global Cooperation on
Public Goods should be
advance regardless of
Example: Climate Change
should be resolved by
If Liberal Democracy can not win the
global battle for supremacy
with state managed authoritarian
capitalism, so be it.
Trump's Trade War is Now a
Steve Bannon and Kyle Bass on China
Both agree that the move to confrontational
capitalism is warranted.
Friedman agrees with Bannon on the seriousness of issues
Part 2 Trump's Geopolitical Plan
Google’s pulling Huawei's Android
license is 'intimately connected' to
US-China trade war.
Trump wants sacrifice to possibly protect
against a possible Chinese Hegemony replacing US Hegemony.
Democrats want sacrifice to possibly protect against a
possible climate change.
Historically, the US has delayed sacrifice until the last possible
War-Trump's Will Not Blink!
His objective is to enhance political awareness
of China's Geopolitical Potentials which was
neglected by Clinton, Bush 2, Obama/Bidden. They
all neglected workers and blinked to China's
business model because they wanted to
Avoiding Thucydides Trap.
Kevin Rudd feels Xi Jinping ability to consolidate more power is
partially based on fulfilling a “China Dream.”
Trump's China Trade Strategy according
He can’t back down.
Forced an Armistice in
a long existing China instituted Trade
Trump will use, for the first time, a Whole-of-Government strategy
uniting Democrats and Republicans
to create the structural changes necessary to integrate China into
the Democratic Free Market economy.
Bannon feels Corporate America, the Communist Party's lobbying firm, and
Wall Street-China's PR firm, will use pressure to limit Trump's
Pressure will also comes from Republican free traders.
Kyle Bass agrees and points out that
corporate America tried to limit the activities
of the US Committee on Foreign Investment. (CFIYS)
The Other Side
of the Story
In the 2016 Democratic Party
nomination battle, Sanders did well in this area while Hillary
Is this a
After WW 2, US strategy to contain communism was followed by
every administration until RR decided to negotiate and he also
closed the deal.
Does Kyle have a vested interest in protecting U.S. investors?
China's Main Political
Communist party in power
Control Asia's Political Economy with One Belt, One Road expansion
Chinese financed credit followed by user country default and
5G superiority will complete a made in China 2025 policy.
will be used to force US companies out of Asia.
China's control program names
have been changed to counter
Western apprehension concerning Chinese dominance.
a Point to Bannon, but
US Capitalistic Oligarchs
have always had control of power.
U.S. Control America's
political economy using a
Is Inability of Democracy to equitably apportion income finally
Political Economy China vs. U.S.
China has a suppressive, controlling, totalitarian dictatorship
that uses new technology like
facial recognition to accomplish their geopolitical aims. To
maintain status quo party oligarchs
implement reforms to subdue opposition, and to protected the party
US differs: rule of law, a constitution, free Speech, free
religion, free Enterprise, and Markets Capitalism.
to pull Huawei's Android license is 'intimately connected' to
US-China trade war. It will just forces Khanna to develop
her own operating system. Apple, a big player in China, will must
diversify in Asia or continue to lose ground. The trade war and
export controls will slow and maybe reverse the progress of some US
tech companies while encouraging China's 2025 efforts. Rearranging
supply chains will be easy for China.
Fareed Zakaria thinks tying America's principle to
Trump's attacking Huawei is important.
Steve Lavine "Etched into
Chinese policy is the unforgettable humiliation of the Opium Wars of
the 19th century, when the U.S. and Britain forced China into
Feared Direct Democracy
so their control began early, required
with a watchful eye on continuing the
China is using free trade with a dash of Predatory Capitalism
combined with mercantilism to gain control of Asia.
England used ruthless East India Company profits
to finance her colonial America empire.
US managed the Carrabin under the guise of the Monroe Doctrine.
Business Oligarchs, helped by a succession of Presidents, took
economic control while showing little
consideration for individual wellbeing.
Trumps wants structural changes to negate
China's Six Control Tools.
Forced Industrial Transfer
State Owned Enterprises, accepted
Where Tom Friedman Agrees
With Trump's China Trade Approach
U.S. Controlled using a Post
because she had enough consumer and business demand, financed by
debt, to supply dollars for world trade. Dollars came back to the US
as foreigners bought US assets and debt.
US military defense mad the system
Bannon: China must be forced to make
Friedman agrees with the severity of the problem.
He worries about the politics, and corporation from Europe
Zakaria worries that a bipolar world slows
1) a signed TPP because it was 40% of Worlds GDP and designed to
2) getting Europeans on our side and not to have bothered with steel and
aluminum tariffs, Fareed agrees.
Negotiating in secrecy as we had the most leverage and our success would
developing countries might choose Huawei veer the US because it is
cheaper and they have a fear that China and US both have a snooping advantage.
Kevin Rudd As US China trade
negotiations seemingly enter an end
game, there's one problem with Trump's
"art of the deal". He prefers face to
face brinkmanship. But there's no way Xi
would go to Mar-a-Lago unless the deal
was already done.
All of Asia exports, not just
China's, are deflationary.
Steve, a member of the committee on peril, thinks controlling
China requires an effort equal to that of controlling Russia. An
equal playing feels for Globalization is his goal.
quo in three stages
Under Mayo politics ruled.
Under Ping, economic reform ruled but was modified
led to less harmony, slower growth and sluggish government.
politics is back in command.
Bannon and Kyle Bass on China Trade Deal
Additional contributions from Tom
Friedman agrees on the seriousness of
Where Tom Friedman
Agrees With Trump's China Trade Approach
Geopolitical Trade War
Doing the Right Thing in Challenging
Following the dollar to see how
US oligarchs, lead by business, have maintained command of
US-China Trade War
Hopefully, unlike most observers,
understands that the
military industrial complex, not just Wall Street and Corporate
control the World's Political Economy.
20th Century US Gilded Age Oligarch exploited
females/children/blacks, and immigrant
Progressive movements populism was battled politically and
21st Century US Globalization
Oligarchs exploited rival economic participants.
Stress Management Techniques of the Supreme Court Controlled Society
1) Assigning the Federal Government sovereignty over Sates
Current day populism battles are political using propaganda to
their share of factor income.
2) Protected individual and business rights from arbitrary
3) For 250 years our
presidents, congress, and citizens
somewhat harmonious, excepting for
Constitutional History of the United States.
Between the lines.
Is Bannon still an anarchist or has
he just added a new audience to the ultra conservative oligarch who
finance his beliefs.
Does Bannon wants a managed wage to
move from West to East? This seems much less revolutionary than two
Bannon is not a big advocate of capitalism, not sure if he is a
libertarian or a utopian, but he does choose his words carefully.
Part 2 Trump's Geopolitical Plan
Trump’s Geopoitical Plan
Brookings Institute: Thomas Wright
foreign policy instincts date back three
He has long rejected:
1. US security
alliances as unfair to the taxpayer,
with allies conning Washington into defending
them for free.
deficits are a threat to U.S. interests. He
all trade deals the United States has negotiated
since World War II.
strongmen around the world: in 1990, for
demonstrators as Beijing had in Tiananmen Square
one year before.
he lamented Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had
not cracked down
was constraint. It guided him from inauguration until he
at [things like]
McMaster’s arguing to keep troops in place.
in 9/17 when he
bypassed the formal deliberative interagency
decision making process and decided to move the
U.S. Israel embassy to Jerusalem. Soon he ended
the Iran nuclear deal, imposed tariffs on
friends and rivals alike, renewed his criticism
of NATO and was keeping troops in Syria.
Most famously, he decided to meet with Kim in
Singapore without consulting his national
security cabinet and made the unilateral
decision to meet with Russian President Vladimir
began 2018 with the removal of Tillerson,
McMaster, and Cohn over three-weeks, with their
Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, and Larry Kudlow—all
loyalty to Trump. Then UN Ambassador Nikki
and Mattis’ resignation on December 21.
A recent positive
development from the administration was welcomed
by many foreign policy experts. Hr recognized
that Russia and China
posed to the U.S.-led international order and
affirmed the importance
of related alliances.
Security Strategy and National Defense
1) Moved focus from terrorism to great-power competition.
But Trump seems
uninterested and his
the strategy had only a single sentence about rival powers
with a plea for the importance of cooperation with Russia.
transactional approach places little
value in historical ties.
no permanent friends and
no permanent enemies.
It favors authoritarian governments that offer
and are easier to deal with than with our
For example, Saudi Arabia was
able to reduce the price
to appease the president after the president
sided with it
following the murder of the journalist Jamal
3) Leverage is
used to gain an economic advantage.
a) Trump’s team entertained Poland’s bid to pay
U.S. military base in its country
United Kingdom to pursue a hard
Brexit so that the United States could pocket
in talks on a bilateral U.S.-British free trade
Paradoxically, the advent of a
more unified and predictable
U.S. foreign policy is likely to
weaken American influence and
destabilize the international order.
A deeply divided Trump
administration was the best case for
those who believe in
the United States’ postwar strategy,
defined by strong alliances,
an open global economy, and broad
support for democracy,
the rule of law, and human rights.
Because Trump was
never going to change his world
his administration had been marked
by either division or agreement on
his terms. We now have the latter."
3 A unified
Trump administration on the world
Institute: Thomas Wright
US 2020 Strategic Approach to China
Because Trump's methods put much of the
foreign establishment out of business,
trusting these and similar Trump
articles is difficult. As a result, I
report opinions while trying to make my
of course, as with everything, what I
choose to include and not include which
makes me, like everyone else, bias.
2) 10/9/19Trumps allows Turkey to go after Syrian Kurds.
Trump has been saying since he was a candidate he wants to
withdraw from Syria, he wanted to withdraw from what he
called these “unending wars”–the last time I think he used
the word “stupid wars”–where the U.S. has paid a heavy price
and it was the U.S. that has carried the burden.
He had to begin somewhere. This is step 2.
Step 1 was when Obama allowed Syria to cross his "Red Line."
Trump’s Withdrawal From Syria: Betrayal of Kurds or End to
January 17, 2019
Gulf Power’s Economic Symposium
Catalyst for Change
End of Cold War
meant US had lost her reason to
police the World.
Obama began standing down in Middle
Trump accelerated an inevitable flow
Covid-19 increased this
A system reboot has been
delayed as US doesn't know what she wants.
Bush 1 began planning Version 2 of Brenton Woods
the US Hegemony creator.
To create a new alliance his team was B.
Scowcroft. C Powell, and D. Chaney.
But FED was slow to cut rates and voters
went with 3 domestic candidates.
Clinton, Bush 2 and Obama would patrol the
globalized commons where the US
was the market of first and last resort, but the
US security difference faded.
With few security
concerns, China took over world
Brazil became a competitor of
American agriculture, and US
allowed Russia to run amuck in her
The Brenton Woods
deal where we subsidize the alliance
which fights Communism is no longer
and trade was about security, not
economics. Unlike the rest of the
world, we are importers, not
exporters. We have a continental
that is not as integrated and
dependent as our competitors.
Russia needs global energy, China
needs freedom of the seas and global
markets, Brazil needs international
credit, the Euro needs NATO.
US politics must be view
through this lens.
Last election was
not about global economic
engagement, it was about
the pace of disengagement. Under
Clinton it would have been a calm
process, under Trump, not so much.
But endpoint is the same.
There is no
correlation between a state's
foreign trade and RED/BLUE
This means the manner we disengage
with the world is not politically
coalition is more cohesive,
do not interact as business cares
little of religion.
Business, National Security,
Evangelical, Populist, Pro-right
Short list of issues is built into a
platform, everyone shows up at polls
Democrats infighting is disruptive
Blacks and Gays
disagree on what civil rights means
and about everything else.
Greens and Unions disagree on about
every aspect of industrial policy.
Single unwed mothers don't see why
they should pay for millennial
This means running on the issues
causes an immediate sparks an
Hillary-Dukakis can not win.
Clinton-Obama can win. Charisma
Campaign created voter disarray as
many cohorts changed parties or did
Political Party Convulsion
into WW2 and FDR. The
Republicans used to be
Technology changes, power among
states changes, economic trends
demography evolves and politics
moves with it, but on a delay.
Last time with similar political
convulsion of both parties was the
Great Depression evolved
the federal government party It was
a 12 year shake out to get the party
Parties Must Reform so we can
begin a conversation about what we
Then we can begin a conversation of
what policies would help achieve
1. China, because of financial and economic problems will
become more bellicose
and rewrite East Asia but Japan's take control because of a
much stronger Navy.
2. Russia, is dying as a people and must quickly expand West .
Ukraine is only the beginning.
Germany will rearm.
3. Saudi Arabia will intensive
oil battle with Iran.
Syria is a preview of coming attractions.
4. US will continue standing down
Economic Symposium 21 Feb 5, 2018
Foreign Policy is Now
There is no Global Strategy
Foreign Leaders Must Come to
Washington to barter
Conflicts 28 minute mark
1. Russia's Low birth
rate means by 2022 her Army will have halved
so if military tactics are the chosen option, they must act
to shortens the required military defense line is required.
She will use her oil/gas lines through the vast European
to her West to as barging power barging and take control of
05/04/2020 - The
End of Cost
05/13/2020 - A
Failure of Leadership, Part I: A Look Around the World
A Failure of Leadership, Part II:
How To Lose Friends and
Mobilize People Against You
Beijing has accused the French of using their
nursing homes as death camps, has blamed Italy for being the source
of the Coronavirus (at the very peak of Italian deaths), has charged
the US Army with bringing the virus to China in the first place, and
has thrown a “fact sheet” of truly unbelievable disinformation at
the fact-oriented Germans. The Chinese have seemingly deliberately
wrecked their relations with the Americans, French, Italians,
Germans, Czechs, South Africans, Kazakhs and Nigerians, just to name
a few. Deliberate and sanctioned from the top with the ambassadorial
core directed to follow suit. Everything from restaurants to buses
to gyms are banning foreigners.
Propaganda at home is boiling in a new direction as
well. Overt, blatant racism is the core of the new program, with the
government expressly blaming foreigners of all stripes for
Coronavirus in specific and China’s ills in general.
The explanation is unfortunately very simple: the
Chinese leadership is well aware that soft power isn’t what is going
to solve their problems.
Put simply, Xi is trying to get the world pissed off at China so
that China becomes pissed off at the world.
Xi feel he needs to hyper-stimulate and mobilize a large enough
proportion of the population so that they can assist the
state security services in containing, demoralizing, cowing and if
necessary, beating, killing and disappearing – those who do not buy
This leaves only one question: Why…WHY would
Chairman Xi feel this sort of extreme action is necessary?
Put simply, Xi fears the end of China is nigh.