A. Five Reasons China Isn't Backing Down K. Rudd
1. Trump’s trade war confirms that Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” was an expansion into China’s sphere of influence.
2. Recent actions means trade talks must be delayed at least until after US midterm elections.
3. Xi Jinping ability to consolidated more power is partially based on fulfilling a “China Dream.” He can’t back down.
4. China’s economy will suffer little, much less than 0.5 percent of GDP.
China believes she has
less near-term political vulnerability
but greater long-term economic vulnerability as
China’s authoritarian state-dominated capitalism better absorbs economic shocks.
The bottom line: Trump and Xi believe near-term fallout can be managed so this trade war will probably last longer and inflict damage.
Chinese students in America is very important to long-term political
Australia has relatively many more Chinese students.
Editor's Note: Historically, not listening to our allies has not worked out well.
Think Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan/Syrian wars.
Kevin Rudd: China will not over react to Trump's trade policy
1. She will lower trade balance.
2 . Her relatively low tariffs of about 9% will be lowered.
3. China could propose zero tariffs in both countries and could make same offer to others.
C. Relations With Russia Bremmer video
See 21st Century Free Trade Analysis
D. Trade Thoughts from China Crisis of Success video by Dr. William Overholt
Three Categories of US
China's Attitude toward U.S. Trade
Affect of Trade War on Chinese
1. Trump's 90-day Tariff Deal 12/18\
2. Three small numbers are making big waves in China. The digits 9-9-6, a shorthand for 9am to 9pm, six days a week,
have become a rallying cry for tech workers frustrated with their bruising work schedules 4/17/19 Source
3. From Bloomberg's New Economy Forum 4/19/19
China has no desire to scale back its winner-take-all industrial ambitions or to make fundamental changes to its authoritarian capitalism.
A mix that includes subsidies for state industrial champions and economic policy favoring local over foreign players, has succeeded.
Any final agreement will have Chinese pledges to buy more U.S. products but few promises to restructure the economy.
A trade deal won’t end China-U.S. frictions. In fact, the conflict has only just begun.
A 2018 report from Freedom House, a democracy watchdog, noted that 18 countries (so far) now use Chinese-made intelligent monitoring systems and 36 have received training in topics like "public opinion guidance," a euphemism for censorship. The list of countries includes the UAE, Zimbabwe, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Kenya, and Germany.
The worldwide infrastructure-building project "has pushed China’s huge construction, telecommunications and shipping companies to go global at a time when a cooling domestic economy means less business at home." Editor's Note: A common problem in centrally planned economies. Where is the data on the cost of China's overbuilding housing at home. Japan rushed into HDTV while US, very profit dependent, waited for digital technology.
The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment:
The Good, The Bad, and The Apocryphal by
Chinese competition on US manufacturing had a striking regional variation from 2000-2015.
In high-human capital areas like West Coast or New England, manufacturing job losses saw industry switching to services. Companies changed to research, design, management or wholesale. Hence, redistributed of jobs went from manufacturing in lower income areas to services in higher income areas.
In the low human-capital areas like the South and mid-West, manufacturing plants closed without much increased service employment.
Offshoring appears to drive these manufacturing job losses.
This employment impacts was strongest between from 2000 to 2007
Ling Chen: New
Insights on the 'Made in China' Model
1. Began with Top Down Trade which succeeded using cheap labor
2. Success cause companies to move to other Asian companies
3. Bottom up home grown Gorilla Investors will contribute to Made in China_2025
4. Ling Chen's analysis supports the Bajing Model. See Washington Consensus vs Beijing Consensus/
3 History of China
History of China: What is China, Anyway?
Modern Western Civilization Economic History
China was part of the Colonial Empire of Great Britain
Opium Trade was a Big Money Maker.