1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs: Asia vs. Europe

4. Cultural Wars    

Return to Geopolitics 10/15/19      Please link to and Share!

 

1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics
           from articles by Summary from editor  Walter Antoniotti   antonw@ix.netcom.com
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Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to
Europe/Western Culture

Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions
contributed to these disruptions and caused  many to lash out in a tribal like response.

US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended
1.
Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity
, including the west

Disruptions Could Last Years Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.

Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
3.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.
Source

A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes  by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent
.

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions. Source

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3. Foreign Affairs: Asia vs. Europe

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan


A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. increase trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source

U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision

B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
   
according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua franca is important

C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy

D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
    a. organization like UN, WTO ...
    b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
    world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance must be Improvement.
5. Reasons for China's success
    a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
    b. U.S. Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is China's first step
.

E) Is China Backing off a bit as the World, especially the U.S. reacts,
 

Europe's Lose of Geopolitical Importance
from Geopolitics Matters George Friedman 6/6/18

America is Not a European Country

1. Politics differ, world perceptions differ, self-perception differs

2. Founders distinguished between private and public by putting the public in control.
a. U.S. constitution creates a weak, indecisive central government designed to leave the people alone
b. A judge in Hawaii has power to stop President Trump's immigration travel ban.
c. Congress is more important than the President. Congressman only care about reelection,
    only listen to their constitutes, and are very independent.
d. Federal Government is not as important.
    Two oilmen made the U.S. the world's largest oil producer.
    No government policy, no plan, just the best innovative environment.
    America is run from many industrial economic control centers, not from Washington.

Center of U.S. 20th Century Geopolitics is Controlling the Pacific.

Two world wars were about control of the seas.
Pacific of most concern
because Europe was balanced with no controlling hegemony.
When France fell in six weeks, Germany looked too strong, U.S. war efforts began.
A Cold war U.S. was everywhere
and when the wall fell, Asia became the center of attention.
Now strategy determines locations of geopolitical interest. 

U.S. Asian Policy Unchanged

Clinton began a Korean policy: no military action, limit their nuclear program, prepare for a last resort war option

Bush began fighting China's mercantilism, Obama joined the game, Trump used trade to increase the stakes.
US not as trade vulnerable: Germany exports 50%, China 25%, U.S. 8% beyond NAFTA.
China will be stopped from controlling the South China Sea and moving into the Western Pacific.
U.S. bled for the Western Pacific, its building
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to control the Western Pacific.
 

Important Geopolitical Situations

1. China is not much of a military power, but she is an economic threat.
2. Afghanistan withdrawal negotiations with the Taliban are ongoing.
3. Iran now dominates Iraq, dominate Lebanon, has a significant role in Syria, and operates in Yemen.
    US helped engineer an alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey to counter Iran.
4. Poland has US troops. Rumania has a US reinforced air base. 
5. NATO was correctly described as an obsolete military alliance.
    It existed to stop a strong Soviet Union. Russia is a 3rd world nuclear power with a resource dependent economy.
    NATO has no usable military fighting divisions to deplored in Poland against Russian aggression.
 

 Consistent, Ruthless, Understandable 100 Year U.S.  Geopolitical Strategy
1. North America is an island, U.S. must control surrounding waters.
2. U.S. can not allow anyone to control the European Peninsula and the Russian mainland
  
 because together they have the technology and resources to threaten U.S. interests.
    When this strategy was in danger, the U.S. entered WW 1, WW 2 and then stayed to end the Cold War.
    When the 2014 Ukrainian events happened, Obama deployed American forces to Poland and
    Rumania and that deployment continued and has recently intensified.
3. This strategy now applies to  Asia where U.S. controls the sea and will  not allow a local hegemony.
4. Strategy is independent of Presidents. It is in America's DNA.
5. Today U.S. primary threats are in Asia and can easily be managed.
6. Russia is manageable because economy is resource price dependent.
    Allowing countries bordering Russia to join NATO and events in Ukraine made Russia aggressive.
    The U.S. and Russia each gave up something to create unstable buffer countries to keep the peace.
    If instability increases, the U.S. is ready to act, NATO is nowhere to be found.

4. Cultural War

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession  
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3)  threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neithe
r Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.

“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics.
.

Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy

A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source:
The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

Causes
1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance i.e. economic slowness, immigration, wealth accumulation


Understanding Right and Left Populism


Right populism
defines "the people" as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism 
2) refugees  
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...


Left populism defines “the people”
as social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other

R
ight populism defines the enemy in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state

Left populism
defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and workforce casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.

Source: Development of Illiberal Democracy