Trump's New Political Era?

1. Three Main Forces Blowing Up Global Politics    

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence

3. Foreign Affairs

4. Cultural Wars

 6/15/19      Please link to and Share!


1. Forces Blowing Up Global Politics

 by Summary from editor  Walter Antoniotti   antonw@ix.netcom.co
Three Independent Disruptions

Opposition to immigrants, globalization, and establishment's leaders/institutions
created disruptions. America's 1990 dissatisfaction spread to Europe causing two years of
volatile pubic fury. This compounded the possible of disruptions to
Europe/Western Culture.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensions

contributed to these disruptions and caused  many to lash out in a tribal like response.
US Led and Financed Post WW 2 Moderation Ended

1.
Great power conflict has returned to early Cold War levels
Declining world wide economic prosperity, including the west

Disruptions Could Last Years
Axion reports #1, #2, #3
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate disruptions.

Voter Anxiety and Migrating Immigrants Are Difficult
Issues
1. No forthcoming opposing force seems likely.
2.
Aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptions.
3.
AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing anxiety.

Source

A Longer View
More Radical View of Democracy

Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? 100 min video

See U.S. Russia, China: Rivals or Adversaries?

Saving liberal democracy from the extremes  by the FT's Martin Wolf

2. Recent Supreme Court Jurisprudence.

2000 Bush v. Gore installed their partisan choice as President of US
stating decision should not be cited as precedent
.

2012 NFIB v. Sebelius blew a giant hole in the ObamaCare Medicaid
expansion stopping Congress coerced state expansion.

Shelby County v. Holder stopped voting rule preclearance neutered
the Voting Rights Act, US Constitution not cited.

Citizens United v. FEC allowed near-unlimited corporate election spending
but the rich have publically matched dark contributions. Source

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3. Foreign Affairs

China's Aggressive Strategic International Plan

Older Plan: Hide Strengths and Bide Time was Replaced because
A. Xi now has more centralized political power
B. US decline continues and she will not overreact to Chinese militarism
C. China now an indispensible global economic power for many
nations who will support/accept her increase power projection
D. Xi has grown impatient with slowness of Chinese bureaucracy
and relaxed nature of international governance "players"

New Plan shows Confidence, Independence, International Activism
A Expanded South China Sea Militarism
B. Build a New Silk Road to
1. in.crease trade
2. provide foreign investment
3. provide infrastructure
C. Asian Infrastructure Development Bank launched and capitalized
D. Multilateral Diplomatic Activism launch/participation in world-wide initiatives
E. New Navel Bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Djibouti

F. Military exercises with Russia
Editor's Note:
In a liberal Democracy, this is often done by business expansion.
In 2017 U.S. Invested > $100 billion in China alone. Source

U.S. - China Relations, North Korea & the Future of the Global Order

A Well Conceived Grand Strategy
A. Clearly defined policy purposes
B. Situation analysis, detailed and considers underlying historical trends

Recent Changes

A. Enhanced role of Communist Party and Ideology
to counter China's lethargic corrupt state bureaucracy
1. Enhanced CP authority by replacing state control of Foreign Diplomacy with
party controlled Foreign Relations Power
2. Strong Marxian, Nationalistic, Authoritarian model to counter liberal democratic capitalism
3. Install Xi's concept of future world community
4. Invigorate a more creative diplomatic community centered on Communist theory over policy.       
5. New State Diplomacy with enhances State Capitalism
6. Pragmatism is gone, national interest must be enhanced with a national vision
B. Ideological Confidence increased because history now favors Chinas
according to Marxian dialectic analysis. 
1. Nothing random about what is unfolding, it is the result of the immutable laws
of economic development Based on a Marxian Dialectic Turning Point indicated by
relative decline of US/West and China's rise. 
2. Current historical juncture represents a strategic opportunity for China.
3. How a one-party state ideate using political topic/lingua franca is important
C) More Sharply Focused Chinese Diplomacy
D) China to Lead Improve Global Government Reform
1. Impending struggle for the future of International Global Order
2. China must now control the reform of existing international order
a. organization like UN, WTO ...
b. US system of global alliance ensures her own definition international security  
3. Change U.S. Control Global Governess now based on a  complex web of
world organizations using international based treaty law and shared sovereignty.
4. Global Governance Improvement
5. Reasons for success
a. Diplomacy based on Chinese Socialism will lead to more fairness and justice
b. US Ignoring World Order, Paris Climate Accord, UN Refuge System, WTO
6. Controlling international institutions is first step

E) Is China Backing off a bit as Worlds, especially US, reacts
 

4. Cultural Wars

Neoliberal globalization four processes:
1) accumulation by dispossession  
2) de-regulation
3) privatization
4) upward re-distribution of wealth
Together they have increased
economic insecurity and cultural anxiety by
1) the creation of surplus peoples
2) rising global inequality 3)  threats to identity.
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has armed right and left populists.
Neithe
r Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for such insecurity
in their ordination of populism.

“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they themselves
must be understood in terms of the respective enemies through which
“the people” is constructed, a decisive dimension of populism.

Neo Liberal's Caused Financial Collapse

Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies wrong,
   A. Finance does affect real economy.
   B. Finance system can falter.
   C. Many economist wrong because of politics.
.
Stability Requires Dollar Supremacy

A. World trade is stable because the world, through Europe's banks,
completes the circular flow of dollars back to the US by investing in U.S. companies.
B. Dollar investments dependent on high Intellectual Property
generated corporate profits and U.S. economic growth.
1. Substantial portion is in monopoly power companies
Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Johnson/Johnson.
2. Profits are politically dependent on intellectual
property rights which are dependent on trade treaties
C. Distribution of these profits has resulted into an increase inequality of income.
D. Called the Trump astric, has many academics apprehensive
E. Source:
The New Financial Geopolitics-Europe: Helper, Spoiler, Risk Generator? video
Democracy Failures Caused Latest Popularism

Causes
1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy enhanced by U.S.
foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East  wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance i.e. economic slowness, immigration, wealth accumulation


Understanding Right and Left Populism

Right populism defines "the people" as those confronting an external enemy.
1) Islamic terrorism 
2) refugees  
3) the European Commission,
4) International Jewish conspiracy ...

Left populism defines “the people”
as social structures/institutions
1) state and capital that thwart its aspirations for self-determination
2) allows hospitality towards the other
Right populism defines the enemy in personalized terms as believing
insecurity and anxiety are necessary, unavoidable, even a favorable
product of capitalist social relations. This generates acceptable fear of
the stranger and a punitive state
Left populism defines the enemy in terms of socio-economic structures believing
insecurity and anxiety are caused by a dismantling of the welfare state and workforce casualisation.
These egalitarian solutions that can also turn authoritarian.

Source: Development of Illiberal Democracy