Quick Notes by Walter Antoniotti
Post WW 2
Source: Economist Mark Blythh
The WhyWorld Wide Great Depression Made Low Unemployment "the" Public Policy Goal.
Post WW2 Pent-up Demand increased AD, increasing US wages and Profits.
The Resulting High Inflation pushed interest rates up followed by a 30-year decline.
2. The Result
Margins Stayed High
Western Business Adjusted
Only U.S. Increasing Demand
3. The Prediction
Resulting Political Turmoil
Fiscal Policy AD Could Increase
Political Economy Summary
Cold War to 1980
Full Employment Goal =
2. The Bad
Business Responded to Inflation
3. The Ugly
Reactions to Neoliberalism 2008-
Lack of Bank Regulation
Short-Term Reserves Were in Euros When Dollar Were Required
Academic Economist Under Estimated Economic Effects of Financial Market
Government t Helped Top and Bottom Creating Middle Income Envy
Debtors Can't or Won't
Deflation Kills Wage Growth
Real Debt Value Increases
Creditors lost as
Real Value of Debt Up But Some Don't Pay
Populist Nationalist Parties
attracted voters with renationalization
and anti-austerity policies.
Center Left Parties
in control lost as lower wages and fighting more over less cartel politics blamed capitalism and globalism
Center right parties
World's Very Poor and
Very, Very Rich Win
Historical Long Run?
90% of Income Gains Went to Top 1% and since 2012,
Expansion of Credit to consumers, business and governments expanded to equate AD with AS.
A Worldwide Threat Assessment From GZERO media
As we noted in the Wednesday edition, the US intelligence community
has released its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment.
Much of the media focus this week has fallen on
President Trumpís criticism of the US intel chiefs,
but letís begin with the report itself. Here are its key findings:
The Trump administrationís trade policies have damaged US interests
by pushing allies to build new relationships with other governments.
ďAt present, China and Russia pose the greatest espionage and cyber attack threats.Ē
ISIS isnít finished.
Climate hazards such as extreme weather are
threatening infrastructure, health, and water and food security.Ē
ďis unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability.Ē
North Korea has continued nuclear development in some areas
and taken actions that are reversible in others.
Iran continues to support terrorist groups in the Middle East and Europe,
but itís still complying with the terms of the nuclear
Mark Blyth explains