What Voters Wanted
General Population Wanted
Trump's Constituency Wanted
So far Trump is four for five as LGBTQIA Rights and His Personal Moral Health
Have Changed Little!
Trump's Constituents Want
‘I don’t want the Clinton legacy continued in the White House’
‘He knows how to make deals, deals that will make America prosperous
‘I want conservative laws’
‘Trump is exactly what you get, with Hillary
you can’t know what’s real’
‘Obama has put a wedge between the people of this country’
‘Under Trump the American dream is revived’
Health Care Changes
Wall Street Journal reviewed securities filings from 108 publicly traded
companies accounting for the vast
majority of an estimated $2.7 trillion in profits parked
abroad. They said they
about $143 billion so
far this year. In all, while repatriations have soared past pre-2018 levels,
independent analysts don’t
expect anywhere near the $4 trillion Mr. Trump has touted,
Richard Rubin and Theo Francis report.
Is President Trump's Tax Cut the Largest in History Yet?
Note: Most of the 2013 Obama tax cut came when
the Bush 2 cuts scheduled to reverse were continued.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
applies to taxes starting in 2018, and the
first quarterly data on tax revenue are in.
Most noticeable are a major drop in corporate tax income and the
increase in taxes from production and imports. (In the latter case, both
excise tax income and import duty income increased.) These changes are
actually quite impressive:
-35% for corporate tax income, +16% for production and import tax
income. Personal income taxes are slightly down while taxes on foreign
entities follow trend. How
does all this pan out in the aggregate? The thick black line reveals
tax receipts are down by close to 5%.
Will this persist or is this a one-time event? Revisit this blog post in
the coming months to see how this graph updates."
One Estimate of Corporate Use of Savings
When CEOs’ Equity Is About to Vest, They Cut Investment
to Boost the Stock
The Trump Effect on State Taxes
Steven Malanga, City Journal
Success or Failure will depend on long term economic growth
though both sides will claim victory.
Reagan tax cuts increased deficits substantially but
in this elm 2 the economy went on a 15 year growth spurt.
Current Tax Savings
Trump Estimated Income Tax Savings
In Ten Years Individual Taxes Rates Increase
Editor's Note: If the Economy does well,
rates will stay low.
As long as the rest of the world works hard, sell us high quality goods
reasonable price, and loans us their profits to buy their goods
at a reasonable interest rate,
not much will change for most Americans.
WHAT CAN BE DONE TO IMPROVE THE WELL BEING OF THE AVERAGE
THE LIBERALS WANTED HEALTH CARE AND THAT DIDN'T FLY.
1. The Players
3. The Economics
4. Earl Returns 9/26/18
Economist Magazine 7/21/18
hoped to use NAFTA, TPP and TTIP
to form a block to force Chinese
speeding up Obama's attempt to control WTO
unilateral reciprocal tariffs system to stop those skirting WTO
Europe and Japan Agree but never play hard ball.
Trump chose a
respected free trade negotiator, but will he last.
Some fear Trump will settle too early and accepts the shot term gain.
would buy more U.S. goods with no enforceable rules
concerning Intellectual property and other forms of
If he waits too long it could turn into a power
and face game and not trade rules.
Where Things Stand on NAFTA 20 min video
With Minimum Trade Disruption
Good Result With Minimum Trade Disruption
Will help U.S. Agriculture,
car part exports
to United States.
Auto worker $16/hour 2020 minimum
for 30% of auto production increases to 40% in 2023.
This is about three times the pay of the average Mexican
autoworker but it
not apply to many U.S. workers
as most earn over $16 an hour.
Discourage manufacturing movement
Mexico for lower wages but
will likely lead to
moderate auto price increase.
Someone must finance worker wage increases and hopefully
maintain US competitive edge.
Maintains North American supply chain
participants world competitiveness.
If this results in excessive profits then taxes should
solve the resulting inequality.
Waiver for Trump threatened 25-percent tariffs
steel and aluminum manufacturers
future business investment certainty.
Six years reviews
allows for the
chain and marketplace adjustments
needed for self-driving and electric vehicles.
1. The Players
The Four Steel Men Behind Trumps Trade War
Not so Recent History
Opium War: Trade Deficits and the McCartney Embassy 1 of 4 videos
Free Trade and The U.S. by Frank
Li Interesting historical data
3. The Economics
Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s
The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment
Harley-Davidson plans to shift
more production overseas to
avoid European Union tariffs on its iconic motorcycles. Harley prizes
its made-in-the-USA reputation as central to its appeal. But the
Milwaukee company has opened factories in Brazil, India and Australia to
tap international markets and hold down prices as sales falter in the
U.S., Bob Tita reports. That manufacturing footprint outside the U.S. is
set to expand. Harley said the 31% tariff the EU enacted last week on
its motorcycles—retaliation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs—would
raise the cost of each Hog it ships there from the U.S. by about $2,200.
Rather than raise prices, Harley said it would shift production of
the motorcycles it sells in the EU outside the U.S. over the next 18
Note: As with
North Korea Nuclear Issue, Trump gets a thumps up on trade,
whether his high grade continues will be measures on his trade policy in
relation to jobs.
Why is the U.S. accusing China of stealing intellectual property ...
Intellectual Property and China: Is China Stealing American IP?
5. The Future
tariffs on around $200 billion in Chinese imports are set to
jump to 25% on Jan. 1, up from the 10% implemented last month.
- That works out to
around $30 billion in new taxes to be paid by U.S. importers, many
of whom will pass at least some of the costs on to U.S. consumers.
smart: Economics differ on the degree to which increased
tariffs will affect things like GDP, corporate earnings, and inflation,
but few of the predictions are broadly cataclysmic.
bigger wildcard is how China will respond. Trump, buoyed by his
self-described trade successes with Canada and Mexico, is unlikely to
back down before January.
- If Republicans continue
to run Congress, Trump will maintain free reign on trade, even if it
violates traditional GOP orthodoxy.
- If Democrats gain
power, trade may be one area where they largely agree with the White
cannot simply apply 25% tariffs to an equal amount of U.S. imports,
because they don't total $200 billion. Other possible options (and, no,
this is not an exhaustive list):
- Devalue the yuan, thus
turning them into the currency manipulator Trump already says they
- Severely restrict Chinese
tourism to the U.S., which generated $33 billion in 2016.
- Sell down its
trillion dollar-plus stockpile of U.S. Treasury bills, or stop
buying new ones. Either one could possibly increase U.S. government
- Make it much more difficult for
U.S. businesses to operate in China, well beyond current concerns
about IP theft and requirements that U.S. tech companies form joint
ventures with local partners.
bottom line: Trump has made America’s policy known. China’s
response will determine if this becomes a full-blown trade war. —
up for Dan's daily deals newsletter Axios Pro
Rata here and
Felix Salmon's weekly business lookahead Axios Edge here.
"In his maiden
opinion, Henson v. Santander Consumer USA, Gorsuch wrote that the
proper role of the judiciary is to “apply, not amend, the work of the
Gorsuch has also expressed concerns about the federal government’s
expansion of power and infringement of states’ authority. He dissented
in a case dealing with federal courts exercising authority over
state law claims, writing that, “The Court today clears away a fence
that once marked a basic boundary between federal and state power.”
He noted that “we’ve wandered so far from the idea of a federal
government of limited and enumerated powers that we’ve begun to lose
sight of what it looked like in the first place.”
Gorsuch is equally concerned about states infringing the rights of
individuals, an issue that has been prevalent in several free speech
cases this term. During the oral argument in Minnesota
Voters Alliance v. Mansky, Gorsuch was skeptical of Minnesota’s
position that it could ban voters from wearing T-shirts with “some of
the Bill of Rights and not others” when they enter polling places.
At the argument in NIFLA
v. Becerra, he pressed California’s lawyer for an explanation of
why it’s permissible for California to force private parties to
advertise the state’s free abortion services, thereby burdening their
In the oral argument in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights
Commission, the case of a Christian baker who declined to make custom
wedding cakes for same-sex weddings, Gorsuch expressed frustration
with the state’s mandate that the baker provide sensitivity training
for his staff. Gorsuch
asked, “Why isn’t that compelled speech and possibly in violation
of his free-exercise rights? Because presumably he has to tell his
staff … that his Christian beliefs are discriminatory.”
to “SCOTUS 101”: Elizabeth Slattery and Tiffany Bates bring you up to
speed on their Supreme Court podcast.
Gorsuch hasn’t shied away from powerfully dissenting from the court’s
refusal to hear important cases. He joined Thomas’ dissent from denial
in Peruta v. California, lamenting that the court continued to treat
the Second Amendment as a “disfavored right.”
pick Gorsuch casts deciding Supreme Court vote against deporting
Gorsuch, President Trump's first Supreme Court appointment, cast the
deciding vote in a decision released Tuesday that sided with an
immigrant fighting his deportation. the court
said Tuesday that the law’s definition of a crime of violence is too
He also joined Thomas’ dissent from denial in Garco Construction v.
Speer, a missed opportunity to limit Auer deference—the doctrine that
gives great deference to agencies’ interpretations of their own
regulations. They called this doctrine “constitutionally suspect”
because it transfers “the judge’s exercise of interpretive judgment to
the agency,” which is “not properly constituted to exercise the
Gorsuch’s fidelity to the Constitution has made liberal court watchers
apoplectic. He has been under a microscope since his name first topped
the list of Trump’s potential Supreme Court nominees.
Following his confirmation, this scrutiny has only increased. Seeking
to sow seeds of discord, NPR’s
Totenberg claimed to have inside information about a growing feud
between Gorsuch and Justice Elena Kagan. Thomas dismissed
those rumors in an interview last fall.
Liberal commentators, including The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin and
others, insolently criticized
Gorsuch for asking too many questions during oral arguments, and
fault him for frequently citing the Constitution and expressing his
interest in getting back to first principles.
Elitist liberal academics pour over his opinions, looking for anything
to nitpick, and encouraging people to mock his writing style with the silly
hashtag #GorsuchStyle on Twitter.
But taking petty jabs at the justice shows just how little substantive
criticism they can muster. In his first year, Gorsuch has shown that
he works hard, writes clearly, and cares deeply about getting the law
When Gorsuch spoke last fall at the Federalist Society’s National
Lawyers Convention, he said to great applause, “Tonight, I can report
that a person can be both a publicly committed originalist and
textualist and be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States. Originalism has regained its place at the table of constitutional
interpretation, and textualism in the reading of statutes has
triumphed. And neither one is going anywhere on my watch.”
That is something to celebrate."
Will Trump do any ?
Here are 7 ways to help workers
1. Guarantee workers protections from unjust firing.
2. Make it easier to form unions and to strike.
3. Ban right-to-work laws.
4. End forced arbitration and regulate non-compete agreements.
5. Make pay and scheduling more just.
6. National paid sick leave.
7. Increase transparency and communication.
2. Is Trumps ignoring of human rights
issues when dealing with dictators similar to how
Jefferson and Madison who ignored slavery when building
3. Does Trump use
Rhetological Fallacies to sway opinions more than most
politicians and other oligarchs?
4. What is the endgame? Hr vcreates hardlines add a lot of pro Russian noisy.
How relevant is
President Donald Trump’s “America First” national
Defending the Nation With Secretary of Defense James Mattis
Trumpism ?Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait on Thursday said they
would deposit $1 billion into Jordan’s central bank—part of a
broader effort to prop
Trump’s pullout out of the 2015 deal made by the U.S., China,
France, Russia, Germany, the U.K. and the European Union with Iran that
would severely limit Iran's
nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief.
Next came menacing tweets from Trump threatening
Tehran with historic consequences
This week the U.S. reemployed sanctions against Iran,
targeting financial transactions, imports of raw materials, and the auto
and airplane sectors.
In November vital oil exports will be sanctioned.
Trump claims he wants a tougher deal that would require
Iran give up nuclear ambitions and curb interference in Syria and
Having reneged, Trump has left Tehran without
Le Monde (France)editorial.
The usually erratic Trump has relentlessness pursued a conflict policy
China Daily (China)
The U.S. stands alone in its attempt to impose sanctions because
international monitors report full compliance.
Other signatories are not leaving.
China will continue to buy Iranian
EU will protect companies hit
with American sanctions of closing U.S. market to European firms
that trades with Iran.
Iran could shut down 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through
the Strait of Hormuz.
Sara Saidi in L’Orient–Le
Jour (Lebanon) Sanctions are already hurting Iranians.
Multinational companies that
do business with the U.S. are closing Iranian operations.
The rial has lost more than 50
percent of its value causing food prices to soare and inflation
agreement enthusiasm has waned.