COVID-19 A Concise History
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2005 A Pandemic Guide for policymakers began developing simulation models which would be were updated over ten years.

2006-2008  The 70,000 modern machines to slow an influenza pandemic order by HHS were never produced.
2008 G20 Washington Summit called by US to coordinate world efforts to limit affects of the world financial crisis.
2009 CDC took four weeks to release stockpiled health supplies to prevent and treat influenza to diagnostically approved capable labs Source
2009 Flu, health officials traveled the nation telling leaders hospitals would be seriously short on major pandemic protective gear See “The Massive Gap,”
2017 Trump stops Homeland Security from annual update of pandemic simulation model  
2/17 Dr. T. Price's nomination for Secretary Health & Human Services was approved 11–0 with all Democratic Senators boycotting the vote.
7/17 Dr. B. Fitzgerald became Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
9/17 HHS Secretary Price, resigned  over private use of a federal government plane.
1/25/18 A. Azar becomes Secretary of HHS.
1/31/18 CDC Director Dr. B. Fitzgeral resigns over the  purchase of tobacco stock.
 WHO declares pandemic, NCAA to play without fans, NBA suspends season
3/26/18 Robert R. Redfield became Director of CDC.
_/4/18 John R. Bolton became the new National Security Advisor.
_/4/18 Global Health Security Team Eliminated, coordinator resigns.
1/3/20 Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak of the Coronavirus in China,
           within days,
U.S. spy agencies
states the seriousness in the first of many President Daily Briefings.
1/8/20 a CDC health advised that a new Wuhan disease was leading to pneumonia and  "no human-to-human transmission has been reported.
1/18/20 NSC’s pandemic playbook continues to be ignored.
1/22/20 Trump on the stump in Davos, "...scornfully waved away questions about the virus. He trusted his Beijing friends; America had the situation under control.
1/23/20 Chinese leadership began an unprecedented lockdown of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in Hubei province.
1/29/20 Trump's Coronavirus Task Force formed "to monitor, contain, and mitigate the spread of the virus.
1/30/20 WHO announces an international health emergency
1/31/20 Public Health Emergency declared by HHS

             Trump banned
foreign nationals who had traveled to China.
2/5/20 CDC distributes faulty CoV-2 diagnostic kits which drastically limits testing.
2/29/20 CDC allow locally developed testing without prior approval and submitted an "emergency use authorization" application within 15 days of the notice.

3/11/20 WHO upgrades virus to pandemic.
3/11/20 NBA Suspends Season, NCAA hoops tournaments without fans
3/11/20 Trump bans travel from Europe, US-1,000 + cases, 29 dead,
3/12/20 Trump retroactively declares a National Emergency because of C-19 beginning March 1, 2020

4/12/20 Trump tweet to fire Dr. Anthony Fauci upsets many.
4/13 /20Trump announces he, not governors with determine the end of US virus lockdown.
4/14/20 Trump changes mind, governors will decide how lockdown ends. Governors say they need Federal testing and budget help.
4/14/20 Trump halts WHO funding.
4/15/20 Gov. Cuomo orders New Yorkers to wear masks,  in Publics Super Markets masks are suddenly everywhere.
4/16/20  South Koreans who recovered testing positive again? KCDC says it is leaning toward some kind of relapse or “re-activation” in the virus
4/17/20 Trump foments resistance to Democratic-imposed shutdowns, some Republican governors wary of moving too fast, lockdown protests mount

4/25/20 Creation of the dynamic ventilator reserve

5/1/20 South Korea's CDC reverse 4/16 course because suspected relapse were false positives. Future immunity proof and for how long still needed.

5/5/20 Antibodies no longer thought of as a shortcut to vaccination

5/7/20 Moderna to begin phase 2 to test the efficacy and side effects of the vaccine on about 600 people.

5/8/20 The FDA approved a Quidel antigen test meant to detect Covi-19 infections in a few minutes. Phase 1 studies safety and dosage.  Source
5/14/20 NYC reported 100 cases of a rare inflammatory disease in children apparently tied to COVID-19.
5/18/20 South Korea testing positive after recovering probably aren't capable of transmitting the infection.
5/19/20 zeihan/webinar
5/25/20 Masks Become this Political Dividing Line?

In the Beginning

In 2006, HHS established the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority to develop medical responses in case of chemical, biological, nuclear, and pandemic disasters. A  need for 70,000 machines to moderate an influenza pandemic was planned.

A panel of experts designed a new generation of mobile, easy-to-use ventilators. Proposals were requested from companies that were interested in designing and building the ventilators for mass development by 2010 or 2011. Funds were requested  by HHS  in 2008.
Money was budgeted,  federal contract was signed and work got underway. Then a multibillion-dollar maker of medical devices bought the company contracted to supply ventilators. The project ultimately produced zero ventilators. This failure delayed the development of an affordable ventilator by at least half a decade, depriving hospitals, states and the federal government of the ability to build inventory. The federal government started over with another company in 2014. Their ventilator was approved only last year and none have been delivered.

Source: Kulish, Nicholas, Sarah Kliff, and Jessica Silver-Greenberg. “The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.” The New York Times, March 29, 2020. Source:

 
 


In the Middle

In  2017, pandemics models improvement was stopped by Homeland Security. Began in 2005, they were designed to guide policymakers toward areas that would need immediate attention. A detailed pandemic response   was prepared for transportation systems, hospitals... What would happen if 40 percent were sick and couldn't work. More specifically, it addressed 34 “key questions” and 21 “key decisions” needed as soon as a “credible threat” developed.  Think "early-to-mid January, as it [the virus] raged in China and when the first U.S. case was detected on Jan. 20

Trump’s homeland security adviser Tom Bossert  had expressed enthusiasm for the playbook's potential as part a broader pandemic strategy. But, his global health security team was eliminated and he resigned 4/10/18, the  day after John R. Bolton became the new National Security Advisor

The END May Not be Pretty

Is NYC Undercounting Deaths 

Source: Covid-19 Deaths: How Much Are They Understated?

Suggestions Welcome   antonw@ix.netcom.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pandemic history: Denial from leaders, prioritizing money

Deadly pandemics usually feature denial from leaders,
often prioritizing money, historians say

A century ago, the Spanish flu epidemic's second wave was far deadlier, in part because authorities allowed mass gatherings from Philadelphia to San Francisco,"  In the U.S., the first wave hasn't yet crested.

"The 1892 cholera outbreak in Hamburg, Germany, which killed about 10,000 of the port city's 800,000 residents."

"The German city-state was run by merchant families who put trade and economy above residents' welfare. ... Hamburg's leaders claimed cholera was spread by an invisible vapor no government could hope to prevent. But in August 1892, the excrement of a Russian migrant ill with cholera ended up in the Elbe River, which the city drew on for its municipal water. ..."

"Hamburg's government waited six days after discovering that people were dying from cholera to tell anyone. By then, thousands were ill. ... A year after the cholera outbreak, Hamburg's fed-up citizenry voted their incompetent businessmen leaders out of office. They replaced the merchants with leaders who belonged to the Social Democrats, a working-class party that prioritized science and health over profit. NPR"

Merchants were also blamed in the Great Plague of Marseille, t
he last major outbreak of the bubonic plague in Western Europe

The Black Death:
A Timeline of the Gruesome Pandemic