Good Job Roadmap   Retrospection Bias   To Hold or To Fold?    Please Share! 5/26/20 

Coronavirus-19 Updated
and Bad News

5/21/20 To the extent people in the “reopened” States are engaging in unsafe behavior,
we should expect new infections to increase.
it is safe to say that nothing dramatic has happened in the first three weeks of May. 


Print Your Own
COVID -19 3C Poster


More COVID Stuff:

Concise History

Economic Recovery Planning

Media Caused Hysteria?  

COVID 19 Thought Experiment

What Comes Next


MLB Study And The Lockdown Dilemma

Paul Romer-Change in Approach

Peter Ziehan

What Comes Next 

Webinar 2  is a must


Webinar 1      


Test and Trace   

Bonddad Blog


Which Quarter? 1st  2nd  3rd   4th  That is the Question.


Pneumonia Beats COVID-9 by a Nose
Influenza Coming on in the Stretch


Mostly the Unhealthy Die

But Others Suffer

Measuring Opportunity Cost Associated with Morality is Difficult
3 Cohorts Cost of Closing US Economy   Cost of
Opening Economy
Possible Cost Other Cohort Variables Possible Cost
Grand Parents
in Care
Virus, Death 1 grandparent has 3 preconditions Unchanged
4 Siblings
all working
virus, unemployment, social distress,
lost self esteem
, family abused,
suicide, virus death-very small
all between 22 and 40
 with no preconditions
virus more likely,
8 grandchildren
all in school
virus, family abuse, social distress,
education los
ages differ so affect/cost
 per child would differ
would students
spread virus

Sports Fans Have Hope!

Pennsylvania (12.8m population) more people have died of covid-19 aged over 100 years old than below the age of 45.
 In total it is 41 deaths under the age of 45 versus 72 over the age of 100.
Most had preconditions.

US Reopening Position Getting Better


What is the "Sweden Model?" It's a Coronavirus management strategy led by Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist at Sweden's National Institute of Health. Sweden's government has closed universities and banned large public gatherings, but it has not ordered citizens to stay home or wear masks. Nor has it closed schools, gyms, bars or restaurants. The government has offered advice but hasn't imposed a lockdown.

The idea, according to Tegnell, is that a virus transmitted easily by people who show no symptoms of illness can't be contained by lockdowns and contact tracing. Only immunity can protect the broader population. Since there's no vaccine on the horizon, it's best to allow healthy people to become infected and develop natural immunity. He acknowledges that special care must be taken to protect those the virus is most likely to kill: the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

Deaths in Sweden: Sweden's approach to COVID-19 continues to be a source of intense controversy. Its government has not ordered citizens to stay home or wear masks. It has closed universities and banned large public gatherings, but it hasn't shuttered schools, bars or restaurants. The hope is that by allowing the virus to work its way through healthier people—even as precautions are taken for the elderly and people with underlying health problems—a large number of people will develop immunity. Thus, a future wave of the virus will kill far fewer people—leaving less human and economic damage in total. Is it working? On the one hand, more Swedes died in April than in any month in the past 27 years, and its death rate is much higher than in other Scandinavian countries. On the other, it has avoided the death tolls we've seen in Italy, France, Britain, and New York City, where lockdowns have been the rule. Whether there's a lesson here for other countries is another question.



Success Reverses in South Korea.

Is US Next?

Since 9/11 I have observed that the US has become more and more concerned with staying safe.

Fueled by the media and the Weather Channel in their search for profit, everything is a catastrophe.

"Have a good day" and Don't do anything I would not do" became "Stay Safe."

 Now its becoming "Stay Save and Stay Healthy."

Osama ben Laden want to so self-doubt in America and I am afraid he has succeed.  Thanks! Walter




NYC Getting Closer to Flat





Fresh New virus outbreaks in South Korea and Germany after social distancing rules relaxed 5/9/20


Please Share  




Predicting Deaths Using Average of Past Three Pandemics
2,022,410 DEAD

Year  Deaths  Population (m) % died  CV-19 Equivalent Death      
Hong Kong Flu
1968-70     100,000
   ÷   198      =       .00503            186,353

Asian flu
1957-58      116,000   ÷   172      =       .00674            223,000             

Spanish Flu
1918          675,000    ÷   103       =      .00655            216,474
.0183 ÷ 3 =
2020-            x                 331       x      .00611     =  2,022,410 provided death data

10 percent of the cases have occurred in long-term care facilities,
but they generated one-third  of our Covid-19 deaths
         NY times 05/09/20

Editor's Note: We are wealthier as a nation with long term care is covered by Medicare.
Is this a reason deaths are so high. Was this discussed on Crossfire?

The 1957-8 Asian Flu pandemic was another global showing for influenza. With its roots in China, the disease claimed more than 1 million lives. The virus that caused the pandemic was a blend of avian flu viruses. 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes that the disease spread rapidly and was reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and the coastal cities of the United States in the summer of 1957. The total death toll was more than 1.1 million worldwide, with 116,000 deaths occurring in the United States.

Health Model Predictions Much Higher

Than This Mathematically Fit Prediction 


3/3/20 Editorial: As Hot Spots Cool because of Lock Down,
Opening Areas Must Minimize Deaths and Keep New Cases
Within Hospitals Limits.

Testing Up-Positive Test Down New Infections Flat Deaths Flat

UK: There is increasing evidence that children may not pass the virus to adults.
While more evidence is needed, some experts have noted they have been
unable to find cases of child-to-adult transmission.
confirmation needed


Indicates Individualized State Reopening Required
Data Through 4/28/20

Deutsche Bank Research




4/21/20 Less Deadly Than Thought ?
A USC COVID-19 Testing Shows Many More Infected





Many New Vaccine Trials

The Good

The Bad:

Second Wave More Deadly?




Projecting the End! Optimistic Pessimistic?

Over 10 days to 4/16 the US deaths per million increased to 171 and this improved our ranking to 8th among countries with most cases.

Please Share

4/12/20 HME model death projections
assuming full distancing through May.

4/2 about 93,531
5 about 82,000  with range of 49,431-136,401

4/7 about


4/7/20  Some Are Optimistic
summary of
Crucial Facts About Covid-19
 By J. D. Agresti 3/3120 Updated 4/6/20

1. Early indications are Covid-19 is “very vulnerable to antibody neutralization” meaning mutation ability is limited, it is very unlikely to return annually and a vaccine will not require annual updating.

2. Naturally acquired COVID 19 immunity, like those measles, mumps, rubella, and polio protects people who are very unlikely to transmit them to others.

3.  Dr. Brett Giroir HHS has a best estimate mortality rate between 0.1% and 1%.” This “is likely more severe the typical flu rate of 0.1% to 0.15%, “but it’s certainly within the range.”

CDC:  4/5/20 reported

1. Likelihood of Exposure
330,891  Covid-19 cases US population is about   330 million

2. Current Infection  Rate = 330,891/329,000,000 = .001003

With an incubation period of 2–14 days,
this very small infection rate will go just a little higher

3. Numbers of Deaths in Perspective

CV-19 Death Rates

Initial media reports of a 2–3% mortality rate for Covid-19 are inflated, and the actual figure may be closer to that of the flu, which has averaged about 0.15%over the past nine years in the United States. Editor's Note: As of 4/20 this lower death rate seems very plausible.

4/8/20 Data Update

Understand This Coronavirus Chart 5 min video

Are Some Countries Beginning to Plateau?

4/4 A Little History


See COVID19 A Concise History

Philadelphia threw a 1918 parade that killed thousands of people. Ignoring warnings of influenza among soldiers 200,000 crammed people who crammed watch the procession. In three al Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled with sick and dying patients, Spanish flu victims by the end of the week, more than 4,500 were dead
Philadelphia’s politicians eventually closed city,
it was too late

St. Louis too two days after the first civilian case to close
schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms,
and even churches. Work shifts were staggered, streetcar ridership was limited and Public gatherings of more than 20 people were banned.
Social distancing kept per capita flu-related deaths in St. Louis to less than half of those in Philadelphia. Please Share   Source   



4/1 Positive Tests Indicate Next Hot Spots
 Michigan, Connecticut, Indiana, Georgia, Illinois
 then Colorado, D.C., Rhode Island and Massachusetts




Nassim Taleb: predicted our globalized world had an increased probabilities
of health pandemics in his 2007 book Black Swan Theory. In this video he states
We’re Bailing Out Investors, Corporations That Didn’t Hedge Their Risks.

During the US budgeting process, should the F-35 fighter have had to
compete against virus ventilator and other life-saving measures equipment?

3/30 COVID-19 Cases to Double Days
  Cases  March 23  1,000 to 2,000  2,000 to 4,000  4,000 to 8,000  8,000 to 16,000  16,000 to 32,000 32,000 to 64,000 151,680
China 81,782 2 1 3 3 4 8  
Italy 80,589 3 3 3 5 4 6  
S. Korea 9,241 2 3 12        
US 83,507 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 Hopkins University Center for Systems Science, Engineering

4/2 Oxford Model assumes many early infected immune people.
It projects less hospital stress and fewer deaths.

Imperial Model assumes fewer early infected immune people.
 leading to the opposite results.

Coronavirus and World Economy podcast

I talk COVID-19

See Pandemics Markets video

3/29 COVID-19 Virus Blame Game Must Stop



3/27 Private Industry Gangs-Up On COVID-19


Second Wave of the
1918 Spanish Flu
 Was Deadly

Please Share!


Days to Double Getting Better 4/3/20

3/25 Doctor's Radio
Millennials fatalities<1%

 but are carriers and get can get very sick



Is CD-19 virus an example of mass hysteria?

The hardest hit states remain
Washington, New York and California.
3/17/20 Source

Latest Virus Data Dr, Birx 3/20/20
Infection Rate 10%
50% of cases from 3 states.
In those States. 50% from 10 counties 

Update 4/18: Of the 38,664 people deceased as a result of the virus,56% were from New York with 17,671 New Jersey with 4,070. Source



South Korea Began Late,

 Learned from Testing, Then Took Control

Don't be Patent 31


Smart Thermometers

Goal #1


Source: The Coronavirus Called America’s Bluff


Goal #2

The report 



China Fatality Data
Early Data Worse Than Ending Data

SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus
Spreading COV-2

Will I Get it?


US Slowly Reacts
to 2019 Virus Attack


South Korea Got a Slow Start But
Stopped Virus Accelerating Spread in Three Weeks


State of Washington


  • SARS and the new Coronavirus were first identified in China, but MERS started in Saudi Arabia and Swine Flu started in the United States. 
  • Experts said Cornyn's assertion that Chinese culture is at fault is inaccurate, as the threat of viral transmission from animal to human is not unique to China, and the risk of this kind of spillover is growing globally as humans come into closer contact with animals.
  • An ad from Priorities USA juxtaposes Trump’s early quotes downplaying the threat of the Coronavirus with a graph showing its exponential spread.

  • The quotes from Trump are real. But the ad splices one comment about a “hoax” to leave an impression that the Trump campaign disputes. 

  • Some viewers might assume that the timing of Trump’s comments matches the growth in U.S. cases that the ad shows. Most of the comments came as cases were just starting to mount.

How 5 of History's Worst Pandemics
 Finally Ended



pidemics have been a fact of life
since the first human settlements.

As humans built cities and trade routes,
 the capacity for pandemics grew,
 and history is marred by many devastating outbreaks.

430 B.C. Athens
 A pestilence killed up to two-thirds population.

541 AD Justinian plague covered the Mediterranean world,

Middle Ages Black Death
1347 to 1351 
over two centuries and
75 million lives.

16th -17th c European diseases
killed  up to
 90% Native American.

1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic infected 1/3 of world and
17 to 100 million world wide and
500,000 in United States

The toll should be on a different scale
 than that exacted by the Black Death or Spanish flu.

1957 Asian Flu  despite a vaccine,
killed 70,000 in US.

History of Pandemics Deadliest

December Roadmap: Growing Good Jobs
Choose a City to learn
recent Growth plus Median
and Low Wage Data
The Washington Post

Ranking Current US Job Markets


January Retrospection Bias





February  When to Hold When to Fold That is the Question!


Trump should have but did not change directions because of Coronavirus 19.
His advisors should have gotten to him earlier, but they to held their cards!
Now it's Americas Card Game!

Bush 2 listened to his Neocon Advisors Too Long and America is still at war.
General Powell should have folded his responsibility to the President card, instead he went to the UN.


To Sell or Not to Sell That is tie Question?


Bonds & ETFs Trade Under Pressure Podcast