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Virus      Roadmap to a Good Job    Retrospection Bias      To Hold or Fold?

Good and Bad News

3/7/20  Some Are Optimistic
summary of
Crucial Facts About Covid-19
 By J. D. Agresti 3/3120 Updated 4/6/20

1. Early indications are Covid-19 is “very vulnerable to antibody neutralization” meaning mutation ability is limited, it is very unlikely to return annually and a vaccine will not require annual updating.

2. Naturally acquired CVOID 19 immunity, like those measles, mumps, rubella, and polio protects people who are very unlikely to transmit them to others.

3.  Dr. Brett Giroir HHS has a best estimate mortality rate between 0.1% and 1%.” This “is likely more severe the typical flu rate of 0.1% to 0.15%, “but it’s certainly within the range.”

Likelihood of Exposure

CDC: At 4:00 PM EST on April 5, 2020 reported 330,891  Covid-19 cases

US population is about   330 million

Current Infection  Rate = 330,891/329,000,000 = .001003

With an incubation period of 2–14 days, this very small infection rate will go a little higher

Numbers of Deaths

CDC: At 4:00 PM EST on April 5, 2020 reported 8,910 Covid-19 deaths

As of now, Covid-19 deaths  are 4.3% of the annual fatalities from the flu and accidents.

Death Rates

Initial media reports of a 2–3% mortality rate for Covid-19 are inflated, and the actual figure may be closer to that of the flu, which has  averaged about 0.15% over the past nine years in the United States. 

Some Countries May be Platowing

4/4 A Little History


See COVID19 A Concise History

Philadelphia threw a 1918 parade that killed thousands of people. Ignoring warnings of influenza among soldiers 200,000 crammed people who crammed watch the procession. In three al Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled with sick and dying patients, Spanish flu victims by the end of the week, more than 4,500 were dead
Philadelphia’s politicians eventually closed city,
it was too late

St. Louis too two days after the first civilian case to close
schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms,
and even churches. Work shifts were staggered, streetcar ridership was limited and Public gatherings of more than 20 people were banned.
Social distancing kept per capita flu-related deaths in St. Louis to less than half of those in Philadelphia. Please Share   Source   



4/1 Positive Tests Indicate Next Hot Spots
 Michigan, Connecticut, Indiana, Georgia, Illinois
 then Colorado, D.C., Rhode Island and Massachusetts




Nassim Taleb: predicted our globalized world had an increased probabilities
of health pandemics in his 2007 book Black Swan Theory. In this video he states
We’re Bailing Out Investors, Corporations That Didn’t Hedge Their Risks.

During the US budgeting process, should the F-35 fighter have had to
compete against virus ventilator and other life-saving measures equipment?

3/30 COVID-19 Cases to Double Days
  Cases  March 23  1,000 to 2,000  2,000 to 4,000  4,000 to 8,000  8,000 to 16,000  16,000 to 32,000 32,000 to 64,000 151,680
China 81,782 2 1 3 3 4 8  
Italy 80,589 3 3 3 5 4 6  
S. Korea 9,241 2 3 12        
US 83,507 3 2 3 1 3 3 3 Hopkins University Center for Systems Science, Engineering

4/2 Oxford Model assumes many early infected immune people.
It projects less hospital stress and fewer deaths.

Imperial Model assumes fewer early infected immune people.
 leading to the opposite results.

Coronavirus and World Economy podcast

See Pandemics Markets video

3/29 COVID-19 Virus Blame Game Must Stop



3/27 Private Industry Gangs-Up On COVID-19


Second Wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu
 Was Deadly

Please Share!


Days to Double Getting Better 4/3/20

3/25 Doctor's Radio
Millennials fatalities<1%

 but are carriers and get can get very sick



South Korea Began Late, Learned from Testing, Then Took Control

Don't be Patent 31


Smart Thermometers

Goal #1


Source: The Coronavirus Called America’s Bluff


Goal #2

The report 



China Fatality Data
Early Data Worse Than Ending Data

SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus
Spreading COV-2

Will I Get it?


US Slowly Reacts
to 2019 Virus Attack


South Korea Got a Slow Start But
Stopped Virus Accelerating Spread in Three Weeks


State of Washington


  • SARS and the new Coronavirus were first identified in China, but MERS started in Saudi Arabia and Swine Flu started in the United States. 
  • Experts said Cornyn's assertion that Chinese culture is at fault is inaccurate, as the threat of viral transmission from animal to human is not unique to China, and the risk of this kind of spillover is growing globally as humans come into closer contact with animals.
  • An ad from Priorities USA juxtaposes Trump’s early quotes downplaying the threat of the Coronavirus with a graph showing its exponential spread.

  • The quotes from Trump are real. But the ad splices one comment about a “hoax” to leave an impression that the Trump campaign disputes. 

  • Some viewers might assume that the timing of Trump’s comments matches the growth in U.S. cases that the ad shows. Most of the comments came as cases were just starting to mount.

How 5 of History's Worst Pandemics
 Finally Ended



pidemics have been a fact of life
since the first human settlements.

As humans built cities and trade routes,
 the capacity for pandemics grew,
 and history is marred by many devastating outbreaks.

430 B.C. Athens
 A pestilence killed up to two-thirds population.

541 AD Justinian plague covered the Mediterranean world,

Middle Ages Black Death
1347 to 1351 
over two centuries and
75 million lives.

16th -17th c European diseases
killed  up to
 90% Native American.

1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic infected 1/3 of world and
17 to 100 million world wide and
500,000 in United States

The toll should be on a different scale
 than that exacted by the Black Death or Spanish flu.

1957 Asian Flu  despite a vaccine,
killed 70,000 in US.

History of Pandemics Deadliest

December Roadmap: Growing Good Jobs
Choose a City to learn
recent Growth plus Median
and Low Wage Data
The Washington Post

Ranking Current US Job Markets

January Retrospection Bias



April  When to Hold When to Fold That is the Question!


Trump should have but did not change directions because of Coronavirus 19.
His advisors should have gotten to him earlier, but they to held their cards!
Now it's Americas Card Game!

Bush 2 listened to his Neocon Advisors Too Long and America is still at war.
General Powell should have folded his responsibility to the President card, instead he went to the UN.


To Sell or Not to Sell That is tie Question?