COVID-19 Death Cycle  
1. Wisconsin's Death Surge   
2. Superspreaders    3. Sundry

Other COVID-!9 Studies:
Latest News    A Concise History       Planning the Economic Recovery

Covid-19 vs. Pandemics of 1918, 1957, 1967    Media Caused Hysteria?

COVID 19 Morality Thought Experiment    What Comes Next   7/23/20


1. COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Surge:
The Impact of Wisconsin’s In-Person Primary Vote

Posted on  by  summary by  Walter Antoniotti

The world anticipates a coming resurgent wave of infections, hospitalization, and death.
The Facts remain scarce so impact of Wisconsin on April 7electionis important.

Citizens went in person to the polls. A graphical analysis of Wisconsin’s COVID-19 daily progression after the  April 7 primary election appears here.

COVID-19 daily confirmed new cases and death counts show here indicates an
upward surge in new cases to begin the 22-26 day cycle that begins with
first flu signs
then hospitalization, usually to home but some need intensive care
and a few pass.

Grey circles show the daily count of new confirmed COVID-19 infections,
Blue line is a smoothed average of the new case count.

By Phillip Alvelda. Published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking

Here is a measurable resurgence of the virus transmissions
within six days of the in-person April 7 primary election.

The pattern is repeated as predicted with an additional
new generations of infected each 5-7 days.

After the third surge of infections did cause distancing
and sheltering orders which ended the virus resurgence.

A similar resurgence followed the SC purging
Wisconsin's May 6 stay-at-home orders.

Shown are the surges in deaths occurred at intervals consistent
with usual course of COVID-19 treatment and mortality.

The COVID-19 median time interval from infection
to symptoms
serial interval) is 5-7 days align.

Then from symptom development to death is 16.9–19.2 days.

Superspreaders are the roughly 10% of COVID-19 cases
 that appear to have caused around 80% of new infections.

Superspreading high risk events include indoor congregations — such as at churches, prisons, meatpacking plants, bars, restaurants, and nursing homes  Case in point: Allison James, of the CDC for Arkansas found a March event at which a church had 35 out of around 92 attendees fall ill resulting in three deaths.

Recommended steps to Limiting Superspreaders include contact tracing, reducing crowd density, wearing masks, changing seating layouts and improved ventilation.

Investigating Superspreaders
Why some people are superspreaders remains unknown. The person's genetics, immune system, how much virus they shed, and their behavior  (such as how they speak, if they wash their hands often, if they socialize with large groups) all likely play a role.

Topol says research is targeting this phenomenon because
"if we knew the genomics or immunologic markers that these people have, maybe there's something we could do."

But Adalja says, "It's less about the biology than it is about the habits and interactions that individuals with the virus have, and what types of events they go to which puts them into contact with many different people in a way that spreads the virus."

Why is the Coronavirus so good at Superspreading?

Three preliminary studies estimates that 10 to 20 percent of infected people cause about 80 percent of virus spread. Microscopic droplets created by coughs or sneezes or even speaking results in another person breathes them in the virus. Thus we have the "at least 6 feet rule" and the "wearing a mask in public rule."


But scientists are concerned with smaller longer-lasting aerosol particles  that spread through breathing or speaking (or flushing a toilet) called aerosols. They linger in the air for up to three hours. An infected person could seed a poorly ventilated indoor space with virus without even getting physically close to all the people they end up infecting.

Also, people typically have the highest level of the virus in their system (making them infectious) right before they develop symptoms They have a much lower risk of spreading after five days of symptoms. But it also has to do with a person’s “viral load” — an amount that actually tends to go down as symptoms wear on. A May study suggests that people who had symptoms for more than eight days might not actually be very infectious.

In Singapore four clusters caused 95 infections. These findings indicate closed environments are almost 20 times more likely to spur additional Coronavirus infections. Loud talking and singing can spread more virus than talking at a normal volume. Think singing at karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, having conversations in bars, and exercising in gymnasiums.”

Some current efforts to prevent Superspreading — like taking people’s temperature before they enter a building — may help, but are not foolproof.



More Covid-19 Stuff

Latest News

A Concise History 

 June 12 Summary

July 22 Death Analysis

Planning the Economic Recover

What Comes Next

COVID 19 Death Cycle

Media Caused Hysteria?

OVID 19 Morality Thought Experiment

Fake News Covid-19