Economics Growtg Notes

The Richman FED Looks to the Future

III. Growth Data

A. Business Cycle data since 1854

B. The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years

C. The First Measured Century: An Illustrated Guide to Trends in America, 1900-2000

D. Time Series Data

But Who Gets What Continues to be Discussed!
For a Very Long Time

Consistent Growth
Does Not Mean Constant Growth

But, US Working Age Adults
Contribute Less

Foreign Investment
in U.S. Looks Good

U.S Leads the West in Net Investment
Plus US Has Unmeasured Military R&D

IV. Will U.S. Stay On Top?

Before 1990 Some Predicted Russia
Would Passing U.S.

USSR Growth History

In the 1990's it was the European Union

"Although customs duties disappeared in 1968, is not flowing freely across EU borders. The main obstacles are differences in national regulations. The Single European Act of 1986 launches a vast six-year program to sort these out. The Act also gives the European Parliament more say and strengthens EU powers in environmental protection".

Note how Europe's high growth rate of the 1990's slowed. In the 2010's Europe slumped again and US growth rebounded in a similar fashion as it has in past balance sheet recession.

For a more in depth analysis see koos-balance sheet recession
See
5 Reasons Germany Isn't Suffering in the 21st Century

21st Century Europe Sufferer

Source

In the 21st Century
Some Think China

V. The Job Outlook Based On Education and Geography

Europe�s brain drain is getting worse -
so some countries are scrapping income tax for young people (CNBC)

US Economic Growth Quick Studies
Preface: Western Civilization Economic History
The Business Cycle
US Recessions Chronology
Most Severe US Recessions
The Great Recession 3 p
Great Recession: Historical Perspective
Post WW 2 US Economic Adjustments
Post WW2 International Economic Adjustment
Global Economic Growth and the Rise of Populism
History of Stock Bubbles

EXPECT CHANGE

Urban Job Growth

Composition of Average Real GDP by Sector: Metro and Nonmetro Counties Growth Potential U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro

Private Goods-Producing
Low
17.9% 32.4%

Private Service-Providing
High
70.1% 51.9%

Government and Government Enterprises Slower 11.9% 15.7%

Government and
Government Enterprises
employment Nonmetro is High

4. The lost decade shows slow growth for a while.
Interesting comments. 08/20/10

5. Economic Stagnation fro L. Summers 80 min vide

6. New Normal The Prospects For Long-Term Growth in The US

The Good: Third Industrial Revolution Investments are less cost.
The Bad: Third Industrial Revolution Production Requires Fewer Unskilled Workers..

Some Think Slow Growth is a Problem

Others Do Not

One Possible Answer to Higher Growth

    VII. Thoughts from the Internet
           A. How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions from the New York Times
           B. Industrial Revolution and the Standard of Living
              by Clark Nardinelli
          C. The First Measured Century
               Ben Wattenberg's classic is a must for those interested
           in the economic history of the 20th century.
     D. Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100�
        by Robert William Fogel. Cambridge University Press, 2004.
      E. annual report on income, poverty and health insurance Census Bureau�s 2008
      F. 50-Reasons We are Living Through the Greatest Period
      G. The Next Economic Disaster video blames high private debt for slow growth
      H. Cycles: Some empirical issues show that long term can be a long time.
      I. Trade Ruler: is a digital game using trade to increase growth.
      J. The World Is Flat and growth prospects are limited.
       1. Tradable Jobs 8/1/11 from http://www.economicpopulist.org/
           "... if the 27.3 million jobs added from this time period, 97.7% of them
                  were non-tradable. What do the authors mean by tradable jobs?
                  Jobs that can be offshore outsourced." ... "As an example, health
                  care must be domestically sourced because sick people are here.
                 Computer architecture, on the other hand, can be offshore outsourced
                  and the results moved around the globe to a manufacturing center."
        2. New jobs created are not in Tradable Goods that the world wants.

Last Chapter	Chapter 19 Introduction to Microeconomics
Chapter 18 Class Discussion Questions	Table of Contents
Chapter 18 Homework Questions	Economics Free Stuff

Not Consumers

Is There Too Much Information for an Internet World?

The Home Size/ Bathroom Index Indicates No

Current Data
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (%)

Median Income Grew by 14% Then Dropped Back to Only 5.9%
Two Big Drops Over 40 Years Didn't Help

Politicians and Media Like This Quick But Low Growth Estimate. Since 1965 Fringe Benefits and Household Composition Have Affected Income growth. Measuring Middle Class Wellbeing Requires Adjustments for Appropriate Inflation Measure, Fringe Benefits and Household Type.

Federal Reserve Middle Class Wellbeing Up 44% to 62% Source

FED'S 44% TO 62% Increase Better Than 5.9% BUT
Much is Health Care and Entitlements and
Popular Media Polarizes Many See Economic Wellbeing

Current Data Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (%)

Current Data
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (%)