I. Analyzing Economic Growth  
II. Four Wheels of Economic Growth 
III. Growth Data
IV. Will U.S. Stay On Top?
V. The Job Outlook Based On Education 
VI. Is Economic Growth a U.S A Problem
VII. Thoughts from the Internet

VIII. Current Economic Wellbeing 1p
IX. History of U.S. Economic Growth 1p
X. U.S. Economic Normality 1945-2015
XI. One-Page Economic Issues
Long-Term Economic Questions
What Happened to the US Economy

Return to Economics Internet Library      
Please link to and Share! 6/12/21

I. Analyzing Economic Growth   

      D. View Bradford Delong's( USC Berkley) dynamic
          presentation of  GDP growth per capita since 1900.

U.S. and Friends Lead the R&D Pack

     E. Recently Economic Growth Slowed 

    F. Readings/Videos
        1. U S Could Use A New Economic Strategy 3/1/16
Crisis, and  Possible Futures, of All Things Euro 12/ 6/1
Bob Allen: Global Economic History --4 Clips
Top 2019 charts clarify economic priorities for 2020

Low Investment is Not the Problem!


GDP of countries 1970-2020 3 min Video   Source DataViz



II. "Four Wheels of Economic Growth"    
A. Quantity and quality of 1. natural 2. human resources
      B. Quantity and quality of 3. capital goods
      C. Development and application of 4 technology
      D. Sundry
          1. Stable Efficiency of Economic system
              a. Maintaining reasonable, consistent growth in 
                  Aggregate Demand (not having recessions or
                  excessive inflation) 
               b. Efficient allocation and use of economic resources
               c. See Sustainable growth of the U.S. and ICOR
          2. Global Growth Hinges On Policy Shifts
              and  Political Clarity

Foreign Investment in U.S. Looks Good


Read full article

The Richman FED Looks to the Future

"From 1947 through 2007, the economy grew at roughly 3.4 percent annually. While growth is often expressed in terms of total economic output, a growing population will bring with it some amount of overall growth. To measure improvement in average standards of living, growth of GDP per capita is the standard yardstick. The post-war average of 3.4 percent overall growth translated to an average growth rate per capita of about 2.1 percent. During that period, the United States experienced a few significant recessions and several milder downturns. Such fluctuations can be acutely felt by many people when they occur, but against the longer-run performance, they look relatively insignificant." Source  A New Normal :THE PROSPECTS FOR LONG-TERM GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES



III. Growth Data

         A. Business Cycle data since 1854
The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years
The First Measured Century: An Illustrated Guide to Trends in America, 1900-2000
D. Time Series Data


But Who Gets What Continues to be Discussed!

For a Very Long Time



Consistent Growth
Does Not Mean Constant Growth


US Economic Growth

Preface: Western Civilization Economic History

The Business Cycle

US Recessions Chronology

Most Severe US Recessions

The Great Recession 3 p

Great Recession: Historical Perspective

Post WW 2 US Economic Adjustments

Post WW2 International Economic Adjustment

Global Economic Growth and the Rise of Populism

History of Stock Bubbles


Retail Prices and the Time Cost of Household Appliances:
1959 vs. 1973 vs. 2013

Household Appliances Cost Per Hour Worked Down 85%  source 

11 Household
Hours Worked
Hours Worked @$3.95 Price
Hours Worked
Washing Machine $210 101 $285 72 $480 24
Refrigerator $350 168 $370 94 $500 25
Coffee Maker $23 11 $37 9 $30 1.5
Vacuum Cleaner $95 46 $90 23 $140 7
Color TV $267 128 $400 101 $250 12
Totals $945 454 1182 299 $1,400 69.5
Percent Decrease     (454 -299)  ÷ 454 =  34% (299 - 69.5) ÷ 299 = 77%
Numbers Rounded    Editor's Note: Since 1957 the cost measured in hours worked has dropped 85%

,See Life of American Workers in 1915 from BLS  is quite deplorable and Trans Pacific Partnership Currency Manipulation Trade and Jobs shows a large loss of jobs with not attempt to quantify their value added (wage).

Editor's Note:

In spite of this data the many people think average earners are worse off than 50 years ago.
No one notices growth but it continues decade after decade.

U.S. Has Low Mobility and High Inequality
But Economic Wellbeing
Is High


Where is Global Growth Happening?



IV. Will U.S. Stay On Top?

In the Early 1960's, They Were Predicting
 Russia Would Passing U.S.

USSR Growth History

In the 80's it was Japan

U.S Leads the West in Investing in Future
Plus US Has Unmeasured Military R&D

In the 1990's it was the European Union

 "Although customs duties disappeared in 1968, trade is not flowing freely across EU borders. The main obstacles are differences in national regulations. The Single European Act of 1986 launches a vast six-year program to sort these out. The Act also gives the European Parliament more say and strengthens EU powers in environmental protection".  

Note how Europe's high growth rate of the 1990's slowed. In the 2010's Europe slumped again and US growth rebounded in a similar fashion as it has in past balance sheet recession.

For a more in depth analysis see koos-balance sheet recession See 5 Reasons Germany Isn't  Suffering in the 21st Cntury




Some Think Slow Growth is a Problem

Others Do Not

Not Consumers

One Possible Answer to Higher Growth


Please Share   

 V. The Job Outlook Based On Education and Geography
      A. Growth from 2004-14 from Job outlook by education Olivia Crosby R. Moncarz
          2. This interesting report has been discontinued after 2007. Why, probably because
              a careful study of the data provided revealed that education on any kind can not
              economically help a majority of our young people.
B. Summary of the BLS 2004-2114 Job outlook by education for college graduates   
           1. "Between 2004 and 2014, BLS projects 55 million job openings for workers who
                are entering an occupation for the first time. Of these, at least 13.9 million-25.3%]
                are expected to be filled by college-educated workers."
           2. The Department of Labor continues in its efforts to explain or not explain the over 
               supply of college graduates. Their latest attempt to divide college graduates into 
               two categories.  "In these 'pure college' occupations, at least 60 percent of current
               workers aged 25-44 have a bachelor’s or higher degree, fewer than 20 percent
               have a high school diploma or less education, and fewer than 20 percent have
               taken college courses but do not have a bachelor’s degree." BLS projects that 
               pure-college occupations will provide about 6.9 million..."
               [about 12.5% of openings].
           3. "Over the 2004-14 decade, about 15.6 million openings are projected to be
                in occupations in which the number of college educated workers is
                significant—20 percent or more but which also employ a significant number
                of workers with other levels of education." 
                Of this "Mixed education" occupations group, the  "...BLS expects 7 million
                 to be filled by college graduates...
               "[about 12.5%of the total opening][ note 12.5 +12.5 = 25]
           4. The August 20&27 issue of Business Week states on page 45
                that the BLS reports that 34% of adult workers in the U.S. now
                have a college degree.  This means that about one-quarter
                of the college  graduates (34% -25%)/34% will be in occupations 
               where less than 20% of the workers have a college degree.

      C. Occupation Employment Projections to 2014  by Daniel E. Hecker visit
Abstract | Excerpt | Full text in PDF (205K) 
        D. 2008 to 2018 Job Outlook updates the data. G



Urban Job Growth

Composition of Average Real GDP by Sector: Metro and Nonmetro Counties Growth Potential U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro
Private Goods-Producing


17.9% 32.4%
Private Service-Providing


70.1% 51.9%
Government and Government Enterprises Slower 11.9% 15.7%

Government and
Government Enterprises
employment Nonmetro is High


SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis and authors' calculations.

The authors pointed out the sizable difference in the share of GDP generated by the private service-providing sector in urban and rural counties: In urban counties, about 70% of their GDP comes from this sector; in rural counties, this share is 52%.

“A key reason for this difference is due to what economists call agglomeration effects," they wrote. “In other words, firms (particularly service firms) experience greater productivity by locating in cities where they have easier access to resources like airports and large pools of consumers."

Gresham's Law Applies to Workers

Europe’s brain drain is getting worse - so some countries are scrapping income tax for young people (CNBC)

VI. Is Slow Economic Growth a US Problem?
      A. Recent growth trends of western industrial countries
          (% change)
      B. In 1870 the U.S. standard of living was 15% below that of the 
           United Kingdom. Over the next 120 years a higher growth rate 
           of only 1/2 of one percent in the U.S. (1.86% to 1.34%)
           resulted in the U.S. having a standard of living 50% higher
            than that of the United Kingdom.
      C. When this data was published in the early 1990's, people 
           reacted with conflicting thoughts.
           1. Some believed people were not sacrificing for the future.
               a. Saving and investment were low
               b. Labor force was poorly prepared, especially the bottom
               c. Research and development funds were small and poorly
           2. Others felt recent slow growth is a short-term complicated
               a. A large number of baby boomers and women were new
                   to the labor force and would need time to develop 
                  appropriate skills.
              b. Benefits of "Green movement" (to improve world-wide
                  ecology) are difficult to measure and are excluded from
              c. Little credit is being given to the economic system which
                  provided the wealth necessary to increase longevity.
              d. Service productivity, which is difficult to measure, is
                  substantially understated.
              e. There has been a substantial increase in residual 
                  construction and capital gains from stock investments
                  which do not count as savings.
              f. Military R & D helped win the cold war, and when 
                 transferred to the private sector, will increase growth.

      D. Beginning in 1995 the United States experienced a substantial
           increase in productivity while Japan and Europe experienced a
           drop in productivity. McConnell and Brue provide the productivity
           chart. Participation rate from the Big Picture Economics Blog.  
          1. By 2001 Alan Greenspan, chair of the Federal Reserve, worried
              that the high productivity and paying off the federal
              debt too fast could have unforeseen economic repercussions.
          2. Interesting, as indicted at the beginning of this chapter, 
              recent productivity increases didn't translate into increased
              economic growth
          3. By 2006, studies were indicating recent growth rates may
              have been overstated. Slow Growth continues today, 2/14/20.
          4. The lost decade shows slow growth for a while. 
              Interesting comments. 08/20/10
          5. Economic Stagnation fro L. Summers 80 min video
          6. New Normal The Prospects For Long-Term Growth in The US

The Good: Third Industrial Revolution Investments are less cost.
The Bad: Third Industrial Revolution Production Requires Fewer Unskilled Workers..

Is There Too Much Information for an Internet World?


The Home Size/ Bathroom Index Indicates No










Current Data
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate

Median Income Grew by 14% Then Dropped Back to Only 5.9%
Two Big Drops Over 40 Years Didn't Help


Politicians and Media Like This Quick But Low Growth Estimate. Since 1965 Fringe Benefits and Household Composition Have Affected Income growth. Measuring Middle Class Wellbeing Requires Adjustments for Appropriate Inflation Measure, Fringe Benefits and Household Type.     



Federal Reserve Middle Class Wellbeing Up 44% to 62%   Source

FED'S 44% TO 62% Increase Better Than 5.9% BUT
 Much is Health Care and Entitlements and
 Popular Media Polarizes Many See Economic Wellbeing

VII. Thoughts from the Internet
How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions from the New York Times  
. Industrial Revolution and the Standard of Living 
           by Clark Nardinelli
The First Measured Century  
          Ben Wattenberg's classic is a must for those interested
          in the economic history of the 20th century.
Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100
by Robert William Fogel. Cambridge University Press, 2004.
annual report on income, poverty and health insurance  Census Bureau’s 2008 
50-Reasons We are Living Through the Greatest Period
     G. The Next Economic Disaster
video blames high private debt for slow growth
Cycles: Some empirical issues show that long term can be a long time.
I. Trade Ruler: is a digital game using trade to increase growth.
     J. The World Is Flat
and growth prospects are limited.
Tradable Jobs 8/1/11 from
    "... if the 27.3 million jobs added from this time period, 97.7% of them
                  were non-tradable. What do the authors mean by tradable jobs
                  Jobs that can be offshore outsourced." ...  "As an example, health
                  care must be domestically sourced because sick people are here.
                  Computer architecture, on the other hand, can be offshore outsourced
                  and the results moved around the globe to a manufacturing center."
2. New jobs created are not in Tradable Goods that the world wants







Last Chapter 






Chapter 19 Introduction to Microeconomics

Chapter 18 Class Discussion Questions Table of Contents
Chapter 18 Homework Questions Economics Free Stuff