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The Ins and Outs of Vaccine Diplomacy   @PeterZeihan 3/2/21

4/21/21

 

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Recent Stuff from Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan

1. The Truth About COVID 3-10 min videos
Vaccines are Safe 3/1/21
Vaccines Update 12/20
 Good News on the Vaccine Front  12/2

The Best Case Vaccine Scenario 10/12
A Worst Case Vaccine Scenario 10/12
The Global View10/12/20

The vaccination slump

 

 

 

 

2. Hospitalized Death Rates
27% in March, August 3% in August
Recent patients averaging age 47 vs. 63

1. Patients in in better shape, with less-severe symptoms
2. More Knowledgeable Care:
resting patients on their stomachs and avoiding ventilators
3. More Pharmaceutical Treatments
4. Less Crowded Hospitals
 BUT
10-15% Serious     5% Critical

3. Lessons from 2,500 hours COVID19 research:
a) Ignore cases, use number of hospitalizations, deaths.
b) Beware of reported death: many ‘with’ not ‘due to’ COVID19.
c) All-cause deaths bias-free but ambiguous & badly delayed.
d) MSM is rarely right. WHO often right but timing off.@MLevitt_NP2013
e)  Death Will Catch Up after Slow Thanksgiving reporting

4. Trump CV Pandemic Response.

The Trump administration has weakened crucial worker protections
needed to combat the coronavirus

Occupational Safety and Health Administration-OSHA refused to issue an Emergency Temporary Standard to protect workers during the pandemic. OSHA failed to enforce the Occupational Safety and Health Act despite nearly 10,000 CV-19 complaints. Only issued a handful of citations for failure to protect workers. Centers for Disease Control-CDC guidelines allowed essential workers to continue working with asymptomatic provided employer implements additional precautions. Department of Labor (DOL) excluded millions of workers from paid CV leave provisions including 9 million health care workers and 4.4 million first responders, before revising the rule after a federal judge invalidated parts of the original rule in August. Further, at first Trump vehemently opposed the extension of the $600 increase of unemployment insurance benefits and additional aid to state and local governments.

 
Dr. Jenna Patterson  @jenna_patt Director of Health Economics @HealthFinInst Vaccine Epidemiologist | MPH & PhD, Infectious Disease Epidemiology @UCTIDM Cape Town, South Africa April 2020

1/7: Trump’s fight with China continues to haunt us as the administration refuses to join the Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility. Trump said he did not want to be constrained by “corrupt World Health Organization and China”. Yet China may be the best bet... China has a more balanced portfolio of potential COVID-19 vaccines as well as an actual track record for vaccine development. By ignoring global collaboration, we are quite literally PUTTING ALL OF OUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET

3/7: China or any other country should beat America to the finish line in vaccine development, membership in WHO would likely put us on the fast-track to sharing in those benefits. And now ender's President Trump’s withdraw from the WHO. Editor: US has all the money so we may be able to pay our way into getting the vaccine in a reasonable time.

4/7: An American ‘WHO EXIT’ will have major implications for healthcare and public health efforts globally and domestically. Top WHO priorities such as polio eradication and Universal Health Coverage will suffer globally at the loss of American funding

 

 
5/7: Even if you aren’t worried about global health... “WHOEXIT” will further reduce America’s power in the global community. It will fracture mutually beneficial relationships with numerous countries across the globe, influencing economic and global security.

6/7: Whether or not President Trump is elected for a second term, the administration has sent a strong signal to the global health community that America’s official position, for now, is non-cooperation.

7/7: WHO is the only body capable of leading and coordinating the global response to COVID-19. As infection rates and mortality continue to rise in the US and many other countries have flattened the curve, this is the worst possible time for the US to shun its global allies

 

 

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Source

 

 Less influenza Activity
in Southern hemisphere
 In the, the influenza season has not started.
Despite continued or even increased testing for influenza in some countries in the southern hemisphere,  very few influenza detections were reported.

Editor 10/27/20  The US is Experiencing a Substantial Less Influenza

Get the Facts About Coronavirus

 

 

 

 
Notes from recent @gummibear737 rant
 At first nobody was against a virus shutdown.

Scared people had little information.
As information emerged, certain things seemed obvious.
Yet, they got everything wrong and those who challenged
the narrative were mocked and ridiculed.

CNN, Hardball and other mass media outlets abandoned
 rational thought and meaningful dialogue among opposing scientists.
Politicians and media profits determine acceptable science.

I have had three EUREKA moments during the pandemic:

I calculated age-based Infection Fatality Rate and
realized all would not die and those < 60 could work.

I believed that Dr. Levitt's burnout theory was 
correct and moving forward did not require lockouts.

I accepted that the "Asian/Oceana Immunity" correct models" centered on Pre-Existing T-Cell "effective immunity" were best.

Conclusions:
 1. Burnout = Herd Immunity
2. Pandemic is over.
3. Paradoxically, lockdowns are killing more people.
4. Schools should be opened.
5. Continued lockdowns makes a second wave is
   more likely so we should reopen everything.

 

 

 

8/39/20 AN EVIDENCE SUMMARY OF PAEDIATRIC COVID-19 LITERATURE

1/6/20 Child Flu Deaths Hit Record High   Vaccine Myths  Vaccine Side Affects

Image

graph from Yinon Weiss @yinonw 4/16/20

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Predicting COVID-19 Deaths Possibility
 for the General Population


x = sample = 100 people in population.
Assumes 50% or 50 get infected people

50% or 25 people have no symptoms
50% or 25 people have symptoms.
20% or 5 people hospitalized
15% or 0.75 patents become critical
50%+ or 0.375 critical ill patents die

 

Prelude 1
Predicting COVID-19 Deaths Possibility for
People Who Tested Positive Population

x = sample = 100 tested positive in population.
80% or 40 people recover
20% or 10 people hospitalized
15% or 1.5 patents become critical
50%+ or 0.75 critical ill patents die.

Relevant Data

 

 

 

 

 

Pandemics Prevention Has Improved

Image

 

 See What You Should Know About CVF-19

Most States Have Slowed the Pandemic

 

Cases Down, Hospitalizations Down, Deaths Will Follow


 

Hotspot States, Even With Increased New Deaths, Still Have Fewer Deaths

 

See

 

Minimalist Michael Levitt @MLevitt_NP2013

US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000.
How will we know it is over?

Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal levels for week is a basic prediction.
Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. and
 reported cases will, but it will be over. twitter.com/mlevitt_np2013…

Editor 9/25/20: Recent Increases Has proved this very optimistic prediction wrong.
Now he is predicting about 700 per million or 231 million in US.
Cause of the Variability between West and SE Asia is important.
Source Roundtable with Leading Public Health Experts

When anyone one says follow the science they mean follow "our" science.

 

  

US Doing Better Than Some

 

 



But, CV-19 Cases are a Undefined and Miss Counted Variable
 Hospitalization and Deaths Count

  
   
     

US Stimulus Gas Helped

 

 

 


 

Can We Trust the Data?

 

Healthy Young People
Seldom Die
But Are Great Spreaders

Fewer Cases Turn into Fatalities

 
 

Opening Schools Requires Much Coordination

Leana Wen, M.D. @DrLeana @MikaKYV365 @morningmika @MSNBC

5 Qs to ask when deciding whether to send your child back to school:
 1) Level of #covid19 in community?
2) Child's & family risk?
3) Safety protocols in place?
4) Is there virtual option?
5) Specific needs for family?		  

Will CV Be Our Top Virus Killer? return to top

  US Worst Flues Death Analyzing
Pandemic           Year        Deaths       P (m)      Deaths /M            P                 % died      Deaths per 100,000
                                                 1                2             12                  3                     13		  
Spanish Flu       1918-19    675,000       103           6,553        103,000,000       0.0067                    67

Asian Flu           1957-58    116,000       172               674         172.000,000       0.0007                      7

Hong Kong Flu 1968-70    100,000       198                505        198,000,000       0.0005                      5
COVID-19           2020-?     135,000       330               409       330,000. 000      0.0004                      4

reuters.com/ provided data

Editorial:


See Graph 2         Source

 

What doctors have learned about fighting COVID-19:  Reuters

  • Patients are at increased risk of blood clots, and blood thinning agents can help.
  • "Proning" - putting patients on their stomachs to relieve pressure on the lungs - can stave off the need for mechanical ventilation.
  • Besides the respiratory system and lungs, the coronavirus can attack many other organs, including the heart, liver, kidneys, and brain.
  • The most promising treatments so far seem to be the anti-viral remdesivir; dexamethasone, a steroid to treat the body's inflammatory response to COVID-19; and plasma donated by patients who have antibodies to the disease.
  • More widespread testing and quicker results helps relieve pressure on hospitals.
  • Information-sharing among health professionals worldwide is crucial.
  • Prevention is critical. Doctors are relying on the public to do their part with good hygiene, masks and social distancing.

Some of the biggest unknowns:

  • Exactly which treatments will work for which patients.
  • How quickly some treatments will gain widespread distribution, especially remdesivir.
  • How long it will take for COVID-19 patients to recover.
  • The long-term effects of the infection.

Coronavirus News You May Have

Trump illogical rants need to be discussed.

Trump: Testing just indicates more cases.

Media Interpretation" Testing causes sickness.

Reality: Sickness is what it is. Testing is of some interest but number one interest is rates of change for hospitalizations, ventilation patents and fatilities.  
New confirmed\cases really can not be compared. US vs. Europe graph.