Basic Data
     Alarmists vs. Minimalists   Death to the Sickly     Poor US Management?    Trusting Data   Young People Safe?

CV as Top Killer?    Editorial   Print Your Own COVID -19 3C Poster    9/15/20  Return to

 Will CV-19 Die a Natural Death?
Based on Death Certificates

Virus epidemics have relatively short time profiles. There's nothing unusual should the the CV die a natural death.
Ignored by the media, its death should now be publicized.
We should celebrating.

Ignored by the media, deaths have dropped fasted than cases. Few cases now die.

The 8/15 weekly deaths dropped from 3,169 to 455.
The 8/29 weekly deaths were 370 of 330 million people.

The COVID-19 US death rate is now about one per million.

CDC and National Center for Health Statistics.

Get the Facts About Coronavirus

  • Southern hemisphere, influenza activity is lowerthan expected.

     In the, the influenza season has not started. Despite continued or even increased testing for influenza in some countries in the southern hemisphere, very few influenza detections were reported.


Notes from recent @gummibear737 rant
At first nobody was against a virus shutdown.

Scared people had little information.
As information emerged, certain things seemed obvious.
Yet, they got everything wrong and those who challenged
the narrative were mocked and ridiculed.

CNN, Hardball and other mass media outlets abandoned
ational thought and meaningful dialogue among opposing scientists.
Politicians and media profits determine acceptable science.

I have had three EUREKA moments during the pandemic:
1. I calculated age-based Infection Fatality Rate and
    realized all would not die and those < 60 could work.
2) I believed that Dr. Levitt's burnout theory was 
    correct and moving forward did not require lockouts.
3) I accepted that the "Asian/Oceana Immunity" correct models"
    centered on Pre-Existing T-Cell "effective immunity" were best.

1. Burnout = Herd Immunity
2. Pandemic is over.
3. Paradoxically, lockdowns are killing more people.
4. Schools should be opened.
5. Continued lockdowns makes a second wave is
   more likely so we should reopen everything.


1/6/20 Child Flu Deaths Hit Record High   Vaccine Myths  Vaccine Side Affects


graph from Yinon Weiss @yinonw 4/16/20

Basic Data

Pandemics Prevention Has Improved



Most States Have Slowed the Pandemic


Cases Down, Hospitalizations Down, Deaths Will Follow


Hotspot States, Even With Increased New Deaths, Still Have Fewer Deaths




Minimalist Michael Levitt @MLevitt_NP2013

US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000.
How will we know it is over?
Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week.
Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. and
 reported cases will, but it will be over.

Editor: When anyone one says follow the science they mean follow "our" science.


US Doing Better Than Some



But, CV-19 Cases are a Undefined and Miss Counted Variable
Hospitalization and Deaths Count





Can We Trust the Data?


Healthy Young People
Seldom Die

But Are Great Spreaders

Fewer Cases Turn into Fatalities



Opening Schools Requires Much Coordination

Leana Wen, M.D. @DrLeana @MikaKYV365 @morningmika @MSNBC

5 Qs to ask when deciding whether to send your child back to school:
 1) Level of
in community?
2) Child's & family risk?
3) Safety protocols in place?
4) Is there virtual option?
5) Specific needs for family?

Will CV Be Our Top Virus Killer? return to top

  US Worst Flues Death Analyzing

Pandemic           Year        Deaths       P (m)      Deaths /M            P                 % died      Deaths per 100,000
                                                 1                2             12                  3                     1
Spanish Flu       1918-19    675,000       103           6,553        103,000,000       0.0067                    67

Asian Flu           1957-58    116,000       172               674         172.000,000       0.0007                      7

Hong Kong Flu 1968-70    100,000       198                505        198,000,000       0.0005                      5

COVID-19           2020-?     135,000       330               409       330,000. 000      0.0004                      4 provided data


See Graph 2         Source


What doctors have learned about fighting COVID-19:  Reuters

  • Patients are at increased risk of blood clots, and blood thinning agents can help.
  • "Proning" - putting patients on their stomachs to relieve pressure on the lungs - can stave off the need for mechanical ventilation.
  • Besides the respiratory system and lungs, the coronavirus can attack many other organs, including the heart, liver, kidneys, and brain.
  • The most promising treatments so far seem to be the anti-viral remdesivir; dexamethasone, a steroid to treat the body's inflammatory response to COVID-19; and plasma donated by patients who have antibodies to the disease.
  • More widespread testing and quicker results helps relieve pressure on hospitals.
  • Information-sharing among health professionals worldwide is crucial.
  • Prevention is critical. Doctors are relying on the public to do their part with good hygiene, masks and social distancing.

Some of the biggest unknowns:

  • Exactly which treatments will work for which patients.
  • How quickly some treatments will gain widespread distribution, especially remdesivir.
  • How long it will take for COVID-19 patients to recover.
  • The long-term effects of the infection.

Coronavirus News You May Have

Trump illogical rants need to be discussed.

Trump: Testing just indicates more cases.

Media Interpretation" Testing causes sickness.

Reality: Sickness is what it is. Testing is of some interest but number one interest is rates of change for hospitalizations, ventilation patents and fatilities.  
New cond\irmed case really can not be compared. US vs Wurope graph.