Trumponomics Centers on Trade

Bond Market Reaction to Reciprocal Tariffs
Finally Gets a Rise Out of Trump2
Not Good for a Policy of Spend Now and Use Tariffs to Replace Taxes
 

Trump1's 2018 China Tariff War Yielded $Zero
and Reciprocal Tariffs Version One Cost US $24 billion

Source 1     Source 2

Let's Hope T2 Does Better Creating Jobs

More Wealth for Americans by Using Trade as a " Big Stick"
Deficit solved by tax cuts, Debt left to Federal Reserve.
But, the US Political Economy Will Decides
 the  of Trumponomics, who gets or who pays.

Domestic Savers and Foreign Creditors provided most US Deficit Financing.
Because Great Recession then COVID threatened a depression,
 Federal Reserves created needed financing (dollar credits i.e. printed money)
 which the federal government loaned to financial and business sectors.
It took ten years for Great Recession dollar credits to be paid back.
 

Great Recession Crisis: Long, Shallow, with Little Inflation
Fed successfully limited Great Recession inflation
by controlling the rate $ credits enter the real economy.
 

Economic growth and Low Interest Rates
Limited Cost of Additional Debt

COVID Recession Was Deep, Short With Much Inflation
Two Presidents Borrowed and Spent about 3 Billion Each

Economic growth might not limited the long real economy cost of Federal Debt Interest Payments
because much more was borrowed for spending not loans, with risinf rates.

The FED has managed this Great Recession money printing credie process reasonably well.

Will Trump replace tariffs on companies with a tariff on nations with a US trade surplus.
Rather than a 10% tariffs on $400+ billion dollars of Canadian export to US,
he puts a tariff on Canada equal to their $40+ billion, payable in US Treasuries.
Let Canada pay a tariff and encourage companies to move operations to US.
Toyota built its fist US assembly plant in 1972, #12 opens in 2025.
See Democratic Capitalism Vs. Capitalistic Democracy

Watch 1) ten-year interest rates to see if savers need higher interest to continue leading and
2) the value of the $ to see how the balance of trade is affected.

Why Bother With Anti-tariffs Data

Soon to be Relevant  Current Data

Americans Own

Trade

 Owners Receive

Rent

Deficit

 
A Trade Deficit means Americans Purchases > Americans Sell

Stuff In & dollars out  > Stuff Out & dollars in.
Resulting Deficit Dollars means
Americans get more Stuff and Foreigners get more dollar

Dollars come back to US as foreigners investment in US Assets,
especially US treasuries, stocks, businesses, real estate, natural resources plus travel in US.
This system is always in balance, except
some foreigners do not buy assets, they hoard dollars,
Americans gets free stuff in as paper dollars stay out.

Putin has a bunch of dollars

suggestions to antonw@ix.netcom.com

Trump appears to asking foreigners
to pay tribute
 to replace  losses
 from his attempt to reverse 
gains from 50 years of
manufacturing creative destruction

Few Crony Capitalists

US Political Eras 1790-2025