Political Economy US Economic Appraisal

Trumponomics Centers on Trade

Trump 1.0 Severe, but Quick COVID Recession

Tariff 2.0 Update Bond Market Reaction to Reciprocal Tariffs finally gets a rise out of Trump 2.0... he paused. Not Good for Trump's Policy of Spend Now and Use Tariffs to Replace Taxes TACO” WS trades make money according to the Financial Times, because Trump Always Chickens Out. The Plan: More Wealth for Americans by Using Trade as a " Big Stick" Tariff 1.0 Results Trump 1.0's $200 billion China Trade Deal Brought few results. Tariffs cost US $24 billion in aid to agriculture. Source 1 Source 2 Trump 1.0 Brought Few Manufacturing Jobs
Trump's Severe, but Quick COVID Recession Congress Spending Limits Slowed Recovery from Great Recession During COVID, Trump and Biden Quickly Spent $5T Federal Reserves created needed financing (dollar credits i.e. money), which the federal government loaned to financial and business sectors. Obama then spent trillions over a few years to aid recovery Economic growth and Low Interest Rates Limited Cost of Additional Debt Fed successfully limited inflation from both by controlling the rate $ credits entered the real economy, though Biden's stimulus, supply chain issues and Russia's invasion increase inflation Trump's 2.0 Plan Deficit solved by trickle down from tax cuts, Debt left to Federal Reserve. But, the US Political Economy Will Decide the of Trumponomics by who gets or who pays. Domestic Savers and Foreign Creditors provided most US Deficit Financing. Will Trump replace tariffs on companies with a tariff on nations with a US trade surplus. Rather than a 10% tariffs on $400+ billion dollars of Canadian export to US, he puts a tariff on Canada equal to their $40+ billion, payable in US Treasuries. Let Canada pay a tariff and encourage companies to move operations to US. Toyota built its fist US assembly plant in 1972, #12 opens in 2025. See Democratic Capitalism Vs. Capitalistic Democracy Watch 1) ten-year interest rates to see if savers need higher interest to continue leading and 2) the value of the $ to see how the balance of trade is affected. Why Bother With Anti-tariffs Data Soon to be Relevant Current Data
With US Capitalism, New Technology and Better Management Systems create unmatched efficiency, but the resulting Creative Destruction efficiency hurts once productive American workers. To help, US provides an extensive Safety Net.
Americans Own	Resources	Labor	Capital	Enterprise	Trade
Owners Receive	Rent	Wages	Interest	Profit	Deficit
A Trade Deficit means Americans Purchases > Americans Sell Stuff In & dollars out > Stuff Out & dollars in. Resulting Deficit Dollars means Americans get more Stuff and Foreigners get more dollar Dollars come back to US as foreigners investment in US Assets, especially US treasuries, stocks, businesses, real estate, natural resources plus travel in US. This system is always in balance, except some foreigners do not buy assets, they hoard dollars, Americans gets free stuff in as paper dollars stay out. Putin has a bunch of dollars suggestions to antonw@ix.netcom.com

Why Bother with Tariffs Data
		Trump appears to asking foreigners to pay tribute to replace losses from his attempt to reverse gains from 50 years of manufacturing creative destruction
US Economy Back on Track	Leads Post Covid Recovery
Few Crony Capitalists	Necessities Cost Less
Political Economy Cycles 1900 -2020	US Political Eras 1790-2025

Current Data

Three Days of Trumponomics

Source

Source

In 2018 China, promised Trump a $200 billion increase
in China purchases from US Companies.
The promise fell $200 billion short. PIIE 7/2022

China 2019 reciprocal tariffs, imposed after Trump's China tariffs,
hurt US agriculture so much that Trump had to use a 28 billion
Agricultural Department slush fund to help severely hurt farmers.
The slush fund balance is down to $4 billion so Republicans are
talking more money. Did the low balance result from a 2019-20 lawmakers
hands-off approach to who gets how much farm bailout money.