Political Cycles Since 1896
The Good & The Bad

1896-1932 Progressive Populism Ends Gilded Age,
But
Business Power Returned After WW I.

1933-1996 Control Flip-Flops But Some Progress Made

2000-2016 Political Polarity Increases

2017- Trump's New Political Era?

 
1896-1932 Progressive Populism Ends the Gilded Age
But
Business Power Returned After WW I

Progressivism
began a movement away from oligopoly power toward Public Social Responsibility.
Public/private effort cured hookworm disease which made tired many southern workers and students.

 

19th Century Ended

1900-09

1910-19

1920-29 Severity Index
18/4 =

4.5

Monarchs in control, liberal economic thought expands.

Recession brings government take-over of central banking

FED becomes the Lender of Last Resort with few labor gains and war fed economy

Recession early then economy and Wall Street dominate with loans to war-torn to nations. Economy Expanded as Wall Street and Business Helped Rebuild Europe.  Late 1929 crash would affect many.

 

1918 Flu Pandemic

kills 500,000

6

 

Panic of 1893

1900 Galveston, Hurricane
6,000-8,000 killed
 

Panic of 1907 Panic

Post WW I Recession
 
Stock Market Crash

10

1902
Scarlet Fever deaths
peaked at close to 5,000 and then
slowly dropped thanks to penicillin.

1905
Last Yellow Fever epidemic
killed 20 in US, then misquote control,
then 1936 vaccine

2
 

1933-96 Control Flip-Flops But Some Progress Made
1930-39

1940-49  

1950-59 

1960-69   

1970-79

1980-89

1990-99 

Severity Index
64/ 7 =

9


 

Keynes won the battle with classical economists
or did he?

 Scottsboro most famous of many atrocities

Marshal Plan
rebuilt Europe and also helped U.S economy. 

Truman Doctrine
hoped to contain fears about communism.

Economic Expansion grew the middle class.

War and Segregation and Abortion Turmoil 
dominated most future decades.

Great Society helps but ads to consternation,

Elderly hurt by Inflation and an inadequate safety net.

Middle Class Wage Stagnation Continued as more free trade increased foreign competition which began in the 1970's with the rust belt.

Ronald Reagan Cut Taxes deregulation era began, economic pain eased by newly named home equity loans, government debt plus an explosion of  public and future entitlement liabilities.
Great Depression

Dust Bow

War II

Asian Flu
kills 70,000

AIDS
kills
200,000
     
  

30

Bonus Army Killings   
Scottsboro Boy Racial Injustice
Memorial Day Massacre kills 10 strikers 6

Cold War5  begins 2

Korean War   Cold War  Race Turmoil 6

4 Assassinations and Social Unrest
Cold War Heats Up  
Vietnam War 6

Stagflation and 2 Oil Crises 4

 Severe Recession 2    AIDS 2

28

2 Small
Recessions 
Red Scare   2
 

Polio Epidemic    1
 

War and Segregation Turmoil continue.
Watergate
Iran Hostages  3

6 


2000 - 2016 Political Polarity Increases

2000-09  
 

   2010-16

Severity Index
12/2 =

6

Voters accepted Two Tax Cuts and
Medicare D expansion
ignoring debt,

 Terrorism cost much affects few.

Great Recession Ended Quickly as government printed what could be money, Medicare Part D increased those with government subsidized health care, slow economic recovery increased middle income white males consternation caused by help for minorities including gays,  competition from women and finally transgender rights.
 

Terrorism

Two Local Wars

Dotcom Bubble   

 Great Recession 

Stagnate Economy 

Voter Consternation

12

 

2017- Trump's2017- New Political Era

2017-2019

Severity Index

4

Not much has happened  

 

Increased Political Polarization

Populism

4

 

Analysis

Health Problems Solved
1902 Scarlet Fever deaths peaked at close to 5,000 and then slowly dropped thanks to penicillin.  
1905 Last Yellow Fever epidemic killed 20 in US as misquote control eliminated cause. 1936 vaccine ended disease.
1916 Measles 12,000 mostly children died. Vaccine finally eliminated most cases by early 1980's.
1918 Spanish Flu 500,000 died in US. This could have been the cause of the post WW 1 recession.
1921 Diphtheria 206,000 cases, 15,520 deaths, mostly children died.
1943 Penicillin  1,000,000 lives be saved during the 20th century.
1953 Polio 57,628 cases with 21,000 paralyzed Vaccine followed and Polio is now about gone. 
1957-58 Asian Flu  70,000 died in US.
1968-69 Hong Kong Flu 34,000 died in US.
1973 US ends Conscription
1985-95+ AIDS killed ten to twenty thousand per year in 1970's.  Annual  deaths peaked at 41,699 in mid 1990's
and then they quickly dropped due to super drug development and availability. Total US deaths were 658,507. 
2011 TB From a 50% kill rate in 1900 cases dropped from 86,304 in 1959 the first year of data availability to 10,528 in 2011. 529 died in 2009.
By the 1960's Measles, Mumps,  Rubella and a 1995 Chicken Pox vaccines made childhood safer and more enjoyable 
Return to Top as did seat belts, infant safety seats, bicycle safety helmets, and 1962 began the era of government sponsored child protective services.

 

 

US Deaths from Infectious Disease source

 Evidence of impact of chlorination on U.S. public health. Crude death rate for infectious diseases in the United States, 1900-1996. Source: Armstrong et al. 1999.

4U.S. Cost of War
Nineteen-month World War 1 killed 116,516 from all causes with 204,002 wounded in action. The resulting  peace treaty severely penalized Germany and divided the Ottoman Empire among the winners. These winners continued their 19th Century Western Colonialism, which planted the seeds for Arab Unrest.

Four year World War 2 killed 405,399  from all causes  
with 670,660 wounded in action. Losers were not punished.  Russian Bear having suffered
26.6 military and civilian deaths used their newly occupied eastern European territory to provide a protective buffer.

Three year Korean War killed 36,574 with 103,284 wounded in action. South Korea remained free. Japan felt safe and used a small defense budget to build industrial capital and rejoined the developed world.

The very long Vietnam War2 killed 58,220 with over 
153,303 wounded with few important positive results.

As of 12/31/14 Afghanistan War killed 2,312 with 20,026 wounded with few important positive results.

As of 5/29/12 Iraq War killed 4,425 with 32,223  wounded with few important positive results.

5Cold War 
After WW 2 the Russian Communists seized power in Poland, closed access to Berlin and the Western Allies countered with an airlift. Russia exploded an atomic bomb. Communists won the Chinese Communist Revolution.

The 1950-53 Korean War had UN forces fighting against North Korean Communists invaders.

Russia exploded a Hydrogen bomb, put down revolts in Poland and Hungary, and launched 2 Sputniks.  

The 1956 Suez Canal Crisis caused tension between Western allies.  

Military and political advisors wanted to use nuclear weapons in the Korean War against China and again wanted them used against China in reference to Taiwan and Formosa. Ike didn't listen. The US 1960 U-2 Spy Plane Incident  ended the Eisenhower Administration's chess game with Communism and it also ended the very brief Paris Peace Conference. Ike had been trying unsuccessfully for eight years to control a renegade CIA. He had wanted the expose the missile gap fear created by the CIA.

JFK didn't listen to his advisors who also wanted to use nuclear weapons in relation to the 1961 Cuban Missile Crisis. A more peaceful blockade settled the crisis.

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Recent Bailouts
1975 New York City $1.3b paid back + interest
1979 Chrysler Motors $1.5b paid back + interest
1982 Oklahoma-based Penn Square Bank $65m
1984 Continental Illinois Bank bailout $14b
1980's Savings and Loan Bailouts $124.6b [2]
2009-10 Great Recession TARP cost $24b, Detroit cost $16b Positive results GM and Chrysler workers kept their jobs. Quick action by two administrations helped create a quick US economic recovery while Europe still
dilly dallies.  At 2% additional economic growth per year the higher GDP is worth about $300 billion/year.

Determinates of U.S. Individual Well-Being
1) Society's accumulations are key to the well-being of its citizens. 
    Think how the public safety net has steadily increased since the
    1930's and the successes of the federal Children's Bureau.
2) Scientific achievements have continuously added to citizen well-being.
    Think disease control, smart phones, streaming audio/video, Gillette
    Stadium...See great achievements
3) Personal Income which is a function of nature and nurture has
     increased continuously if not always rapidly. Think Russia, China, 
     and Europe's really slow recovery from the Great Recession  ...
 

 

A pro-slavery mob attacking the offices of the Alton Observer in Illinois.
The attack killed anti-slavery editor and proprietor, Elijah Lovejoy.
 (Credit: Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Why Violence Against Journalists
Ran Rampant in 19th-Century America 7/2/18

 

 

 

   
killed or injured, as cited by John Edwards Weems, author of A Weekend in September.
4,000   Sharpsburg, Maryland • 1862
Battle of Antietam, Civil War

 

2,403
 Pearl Harbor, Hawaii  1941
 Military attack

 

2,996
New York City, Washington, Pennsylvania September 11, 2001
Terrorist attack

Source

2,208 (plus 979 reported missing)
Johnstown, Pennsylvania area  1889.
Flood /dam collapse

6,000-8,000
  Galveston, Texas • September 8, 1900
 Hurricane/storm surge

33,000
San Francisco • April 16, 1906
Earthquake/fire

2,500
Florida • September 17, 1928
Hurricane