Latest Economic News
Return to  Latest Economic News    Updated 9/17/18   Please link to
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#5 U.S. Headed for a Recession?
Late in Cycle is About Liquidity


Current Data     World Trade is Down    Weaker Counter Cyclical Measures   

Predictions        Recession Investment Alternatives


Current Data

Consumer Interest Rates Up, Demand Will be Affected


So Will Mortgage Refinancing



Auto Sales Already Affected


Increased Refinancing Needs Will Affect Profit

World Trade is Down

Country Vulnerability

The Emerging Market Crisis is Back. and This Time it's Serious     Global Output Growth is Little Changed in First Quarter

Inflation Counts

Meantime, nobody told investors that trade wars usually are inflationary
and could cause an increase in the inflation-risk premium on debt.
 The effect could be distorted by a flight to safe and
 liquid assets thanks to deep do do between economic powers, the U.S. and China.
Trade concerns increased in June but
inflation compensation moved slightly lower.


Recession Hurts Many

This Key Counter Cyclical Measure is Very Weaker





Some are 50-50

Indicators Say No!





John Mauldin Sees Problems

David Rosenberg’s Stormy Outlook

Stormy Outlook for Bonds video

So Does Forbes

Listen To The Bond Markets: A Recession Is Just Round The Corner

FED Model Predictions Still Low


Fed Assesses Risk of Yield Curve Inversion: An Update



Recession Investment Alternatives

 Here is what happens during a typical bear market   econintersect

8 Fund Types to Use in a Recession   Investopedia

Recession Investing Tips Investopedia

Portfolio Positioning for Next Recession seeking alpha

Barclay's Recession Investment Advise