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Return to  Latest Economic News    Updated 9/17/18   Please link to
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#5 U.S. Headed for a Recession?
Late in Cycle is About Liquidity

 

Current Data     World Trade is Down    Weaker Counter Cyclical Measures   

Predictions        Recession Investment Alternatives

 

Current Data

Consumer Interest Rates Up, Demand Will be Affected

 

So Will Mortgage Refinancing

Source wolfstreet.com/

 

Auto Sales Already Affected

 

Increased Refinancing Needs Will Affect Profit

World Trade is Down

Country Vulnerability

The Emerging Market Crisis is Back. and This Time it's Serious     Global Output Growth is Little Changed in First Quarter

Inflation Counts

Meantime, nobody told investors that trade wars usually are inflationary
and could cause an increase in the inflation-risk premium on debt.
 The effect could be distorted by a flight to safe and
 liquid assets thanks to deep do do between economic powers, the U.S. and China.
Trade concerns increased in June but
inflation compensation moved slightly lower.

 

Recession Hurts Many

This Key Counter Cyclical Measure is Very Weaker

 

 

 

Predictions

Some are 50-50

Indicators Say No!

Source
 

 

 

 

John Mauldin Sees Problems

David Rosenberg’s Stormy Outlook

Stormy Outlook for Bonds video

So Does Forbes

Listen To The Bond Markets: A Recession Is Just Round The Corner

FED Model Predictions Still Low
 

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Fed Assesses Risk of Yield Curve Inversion: An Update

 

 
 

Recession Investment Alternatives

 Here is what happens during a typical bear market   econintersect

8 Fund Types to Use in a Recession   Investopedia

Recession Investing Tips Investopedia

Portfolio Positioning for Next Recession seeking alpha

Barclay's Recession Investment Advise