#5 U.S. Headed for a Recession?
Late in Cycle is About Liquidity

Current Data  

Weaker Counter Cyclical Measures
Recession Investment Alternatives   

See 20 Seps to a Recession

Current Economic Questions

Return to  Latest Economic News    Updated 12/21/19   Please link to, use to educate and share.


Return to  Latest Economic News    Updated 12/21/19   Please link to, use to educate and share.

t Data

Profit Margins Headed South


Increased Interest Rates Will Hurt Profit



and Consumers as Demand Will be Affected


So Will Mortgage Refinancing
Source wolfstreet.com/


Auto Sales Already Affected


Increased Refinancing Needs Will Affect Profit

Vulnerability to Recession

U.S Consumers Returned to Trend

Most Developing Countries Vulnerable

The Emerging Market Crisis is Back. and This Time it's Serious     Global Output Growth is Little Changed in First Quarter


US Companies Move from Bank Loans Into High Risk Specialty Credit and


Out of Equity Capital



Recession Hurts Workers

This Key Counter Cyclical Measure is Very Weaker




This is Not Good


Some are 50-50

Indicators Say No!



John Mauldin Sees Problems

David Rosenberg’s Stormy Outlook

Stormy Outlook for Bonds video

So Does Forbes

Listen To The Bond Markets: A Recession Is Just Round The Corner

Roubin Brunello see 2020 trouble

1. Fiscal-stimulus policies potential are unsustainable.

2. US economy is now overheating and inflation is also increasing in other key economies,

3. Trump administration’s trade disputes with China, Europe, Mexico, Canada, and others will almost certainly escalate, to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still.

5. Growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down –China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage or face a. hard landing and emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.

6. Europe will have slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening, trade frictions, populist polarized politics,. still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt

7. US and global equity markets are frothy. high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive  leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessiv

8. Once a correction occurs, the risk of illiquidity and fire sales/undershooting  as there are reduced market-making and warehousing activities by broker-dealers, excessive high-frequency/algorithmic trading and fixed-income instruments have become more concentrated in open-ended exchange-traded and dedicated credit funds.

9. The temptation for Trump to “” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will increase closer to election..

10. Policy tools for addressing it will be sorely lacking by massive public debt, more unconventional monetary policies will be limited by bloated balance sheets and the lack of headroom to cut policy rates.

In the US specifically, lawmakers have


FED Model Predictions Still Low


Fed Assesses Risk of Yield Curve Inversion: An Update



Recession Investment Alternatives

 Here is what happens during a typical bear market   econintersect

8 Fund Types to Use in a Recession   Investopedia

Recession Investing Tips Investopedia

Portfolio Positioning for Next Recession seeking alpha

Barclay's Recession Investment Advise