#3 Inflation Is Back, Is There Going to Be Trouble?

FED see Inflation in the Future

Interest Rates Usually Follow Inflation

Trade Wars Could Be Inflationary

Federal Borrowing Could Be More Expensive Up

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FED Inflation in the Future?

Fed Warns About Coming Spike in PCE Inflation

Snapshot from the FED has much data

Latest Data Agrees



Some Disagree

There's more to low yields than monetary policy rates, and those factors are likely to stay in place for some time, Jim Bianco writes for Bloomberg Opinion. Technology makes companies more efficient and price competitive, while a global savings glut is fueling massive bond buying that's resulting in yields dropping below inflation almost everywhere. For those still hoping for a previous cycle to return, just be happy U.S. yields are not negative—yet.



Interest Rates Usually Follow Inflation

Junk Bond Market Still in Total Denial, Fighting the Fed
See Why Interest Rates Are Rising  4/18/18

Federal Borrowing Could Be More Expensive Up

Trade War Could Be Inflationary

Trade wars are often inflationary, and could cause an increase in the inflation-risk premium on debt.
The interest rate effect could be distorted by a flight to safe and
liquid assets thanks to deep do-do between the U.S. and China.
Trade concerns increased in June, but inflation compensation moved slightly lower.

9/23/19 Trade War has Slowed the Economy and inflation.