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New Century, New Political Economy Era?
Prelude:
Centuries Always Consist of
Eating, Drinking, Loving, Hating
1.
20th Century Great
War from 1914 to 1945 Transformed the World |
A. New Boarders Especial in the Middle East
B. Europeans Faced the
Moral Abyss because as the most civilized people of the world,
she had killed 100 million people.
C. Nations must be controlled before they destroy each other.
D. Multiple International
Organizations were needed to create
a unity not created by the League of Nations and Munich
Success accomplished for 70 Years a peace was kept by
Political Organizations-NATO, European Union ...
Financial Organization-
IMF, World Bank...
Success gave these organizations moral Justification, they represented
no one
2. Six Weeks That Changed the World
A. Russia invaded Georgia on 08/08/08
Political Organizations did nothing which ended the 1991 political
assumptions
Russia was back and there was going to be trouble
B. Financial organization Technocrats had failed to stop the Great Recession
US [politicians] allowed political and financial technocrats to hand out pain and move on.
Self appointed ruling European technocrats did not hand out the pain.
Germany would not forgive loans and Greece would not pay.
A.
Greece unemployment of 20% was more painful than the 6% of
Germany.
Reality had changed, these were two different countries.
B. Within
countries polarization was dramatic as
Technocrats,
who ran government and finance, were fine.
C. Those absorbing the 20% felt the European Union was usurping their future.
D. Not only did technocrats fail to see he problems, they attacked politicians
trying to protect the people,
the nation and limit liberal central authority.
E. Hatred, anger and outrange had to be dealt with.
4. End of Two Myths
A. Multilateral Organizations will solve all problems.
B. Getting Someone from Harvard can and will
manage things.
A. The 21st century will be more politically
volatile, more like the19th century
than the second half of the 20th century.
B. World is
no longer "hard wired" to a liberal international order.
C. The French Revolution and Enlightenment were correct.
The nation state is needed to bind people together.
D. World will
revolve around nations
1. US with 25% of the world economy and even when
acting stupidly still must be considered.
2. Russia, dependent on oil prices, will again continue
her decline
3. China, following Japan, will begin more normal
economic growth,
but she must deal with a
billion poor people.
4. Germany, with 50% of her GDP dependent on trade to a
stagnating world,
will continue to cut prices.
5. Japan, with the world's third largest GDP, with a stable
society,
and strong Navy is the Asian
power.
6. Russia, who faces an equal Turkey, hopes for
coexistence and hopes not to react.
7. Poland is fastest growing European economy.