How Democracies Die

Discovery 1
Stop authoritarians by making sure
they never come to power.

21st Century Dictator Methods:
Pre Cold War-Military Coup
Post Cold War-Win Elections, then take control

Two change in the US nomination process
opened a door for a modern day US demigod.
Through the 1968 election, party leaders picked he candidate at a convention.
This smoked room process did not always result in appropriate candidates,
but it did keep extremists out.
By 1972, primaries, conducted over many months, became binding.
The filtration process was gone. Authoritarian had an easier path to the Presidency.
The Democratic Party created super delegates who can vote for anyone,
hopefully to act as a gatekeeper by refusing to support extreme candidates.
Of course, they could abdicate this responsibility and overlook candidate violations.

Democracies failed in
1920's Italy, 1930's Germany, and 1990's Venezuela.
There, political party leaders, hoping to tap into a demagogy's popularity,
made and eventually lost, a Faustian-bargain.
The US has had a few politicians, especially during war, who were not limited by their party.
President Lincoln had a free hand as a civil war was needed to maintain our union.
The Roosevelt family leads a long list of authoritarian presidents.

Discovery 2
Our constitution alone is not enough to prevent
authoritarianism from destroying the fabric of our democracy.

Two Norms of Democracy are required for stability,
the soft Guard Rails Norms of Democracy.

a. Mutual toleration: public and private acceptance of an opponent's legitimacy.

b. Institutional forbearance: under utilization of one's power by
accepting the other party's legitimacy and not following the letter of the law.

Problem: Politian's are throwing forbearance to the wind.
Note: Fights to the death brought down many 1930' European Democracies

c. Historical Analysis: Over a Rocky Road,
U.S. Soft Rails Democratic Norms Grew Slowly.
Hamilton and Jefferson were bitter political enemies.
Both felt the other side would destroy the Republic.
President Washington began presidential norm development.
But these failed during the run-up to, and conducting of, the Civil War.
After a few decades, the Guard Rail norms returned.
No Impeachments, No Court Packing, Judicious use of Filibusters and
Presidents often refrained from acting unilaterally by bypassing Congress and the courts.

Discovery 3
Six Democratic Norms, If Abused, Could Bring Down Our Democracy!

Discovery 9.
Some politicians will not accepting forbearance.
Any tool to stop the opposition from destroying America was legitimate.

The problem is not that we elected a demigod.
The problem is we did so when our Guard Rail Norms are becoming unmoored.

Discovery 10.
Trump Authoritarian Strategies

Consolidate power by Capture the Referees
During week one, Trump demonstrated striking hostility toward
our law enforcement, intelligence, ethics and court referees.

He demanded loyalty and compliance from many of his Agency Directors:
He pressured FBI-Comey to drop investigations of recently departed NSD-Flynn.
He pressed DNI-Coats and CIA-Pompeo to intervene in the Comey investigation.
He personally intervened with DNI-Coats and NSA-Rogers wanting them
to release statements denying the existence of his collusion with Russia. Both refused.
He controversially fired Comey.
One other FBI director had ethical problems and was uncontroversial fired.
He fired Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara for continuing his investigation
of money laundering activities which were reportedly getting close to Trump's inner circle.
His reactions to the Mueller Investigation were at best, controversial.

Attacks on the media for being the
enemy of the people because tey broadcast fake news, and conspiring against him.
These were followed by threats to change the libel laws,
to use antitrust actions against CNN,
to block the Time-Warner merger,
to challenge the license of NBC, and other networks.
To date Trump's threats have resulted in no action.

Rewriting Rules Against Opponents

He called for bolstering Republican majority strength in the US Senate by
changing archaic Senate rules including a tie Filibuster.
The filibuster was only eliminated for Supreme Court nominations
which allowed for the Neil Gorsuch confirmation.

He most antidemocratic move may have been creating the
Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity
to uncover election fraud perpetrated by illegal immigrant voters.
Independent studies had show almost no election fraud.
States refused to hand over election data.
He disbanded the commission.

Through 2017, Trump has repeatedly bumped up against the guard rails,
but "he did not break through them."
He did not cross over to authoritarianism.

Posrscript: The Rise of Totalitarianism in America
6 examples video from J. Peterson

Appendix

1. Partisan Polarization Caused by Fear and Loathing
Erode the Guiderail Norms of Democracy
In 1960, four or five percent of both parties reported they would be displeased
if their child married into the other party. Today it is fifty percent.

In 2017 forty-nine percent of Republicans and fifty-five percent of Democrats
say the other party makes them afraid.
We have not seen this kind of party hatred since the end of reconstruction.

This is not normal liberal/conservative polarization about health care and taxes.

Today, polarization is about Race, Religion and Our Way of Life.
See The 4G's of Politics

Political leaders must protect the constitution.
But, Polarization has frayed this process in much of the Western World.

2. Future Possible Post Trump Scenarios

Swift Democratic Recovery as Trump, [like most populist leaders],
loses public support or is impeached of resigns.
But,Trump is a result, not the cause of increasing Polarity.

A pro-Trump ultra conservative GOP maintains control
of the presidency, the U.S. Congress and a vast number of state governments.
[Is the Republican control of state governments the result of a lack of
Institutional Forbearance. Was requiring relegiouse companies to pay for abortion insurance required?
Gaining solid control of the Supreme Court could result in changes that result in durable white majorities.
Opposition could cause dramatic political stability.

Political Polarization will continue to grow.

3. Who Controls Democratic Politic

Four theoretical traditions of American politics
Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination,
Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism
Each predicts influence over public policy:
average citizens; economic elites, organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented.

Empirical research
We use one statistical model to contrast theoretical predictions against each other.
We used a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues.
Multivariate Analysis Indicates Independent Group Impacts on U.S. Government Policy

Substantial Influence:
Economic elites and organized groups representing business interests.
Study support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and Biased Pluralism.
Little or No Independent Influence Study Does Not Support Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism
Source: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens (Cambridge.org)
Editor's Comment: Because the Christian Right and NRA are made up of average citizens,
how can mass-based interest groups, "have little or no independent influence."

Return How Democracies Index

Editor's Thoughts
Most Americans look at America through Rose Colored Glasses.
Democracy, like Capitalism, has a Cycle, a Polarity Cycle when Democracy Brakes Down.

Polarity Cycle 1

began before the Revolution and continued throughout the war and slowly ebbed
and civility return to allow Democracy and her Guard Rails Norms to matured.
The Era of Good Feelings associated with President Monroe (1817–1825)
was characterized by the dissolution of national political identities.

Polarity Cycle 2
began with an abolition movement.
Mutual Toleration and Institutional forbearance forged a the compromise
allowing the passage of the 1854 Kansas Nebraska Act.
But, the abolition movement grew unhappiness and
a Bleeding Kansas added to mounting polarization.
Eventually Democracy broke down, a Civil War resulted,
and the nations democratic ideals were restored.
The military maintained peace in the South as one-part
Republican Northern Oligarchs
maintained dictatorial controls.

Polarity Cycle 3
A Populist Era Progressive Movement erupted during the Gilded Age.
Some would say many average citizens were poorly represented
as the Supreme Court protected property rights over human rights.

Polarity Cycle 4
Federally forced Integration began the polarization process
which continued with the Civil Rights Act of 1965,
Great Society Programs and then Roe Wade.

See 2024 Constitutional Issues

Media Divides Our Country

See U.S. Civility

Is Fake News a Problem?