Immigration Issues

Creation and Disposition of Illegal Immigrants?

Cheap Labor + Potential Voters

Bush 2 Changes Policy, Obama Follows, Trump Redirects

Trump Likes a Noisy Boarder

Solving the Labor Participation Problem

A Concise History of Immigration

1/9/24 Please link to and share.

Creation and Disposition of Illegal Immigrants?

Prelude: In 1964, Washington cancelled the Bracero Program unilaterally because migrant laborers continued to arrive without papers and outside of negotiated agreements.

Thus began the era of undocumented migration by 'irregular' migrants who worked temporarily under the threat of deportation.

In this phase, laissez-faire attitudes and policies reigned, though both governments would pay the costs 20 years later." Source 1/9/24

Cheap Labor and Potential Voters
Increase Immigration

1) Number of Immigrants increase and most Americans
like the cheap with no payroll tax labor.

2) Democrats begin to see future voters as Republicans,
but paid little attention.

3) Bush 2 changed Republicans attitude toward illegal immigrants.

4) Eight years of Obama helps immigrants, annoyed many Americans.

Source US Daca Recipients

5) Democrats continued helping all poor people with
little consideration of cost effectiveness.

6) Trump wants to stop the change in culture,
and help happy unskilled workers

7) Trumps pushes for an answer.

8. No one sees the added unskilled labor supply is
keeping the unregulated minimum wage down.

Trump Likes a Noisy Boarder
Trump sees a change in culture
but does not mention how the added unskilled labor supply
lowers the unregulated minimum wage.

Apprehensions Got Going in 2019

Few Illegal's Residents
Arrested or Deported

Question #1
Do we want fewer immigrants when it means less control over world business?

Workplace immigration inquiries
quadruple Under Trump WSJ

but the number is so small and affecting supply of workers enough
to lower supply would be a monumental effort.

Research Officer Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Research Associate Asha Bharadwaj, both with the St. Louis Fed, found that the U.S. hosted the eighth largest number of refugees and asylum seekers in 2017, the most recent year for which data was available. Turkey hosted around 3.8 million, the largest number by far and more than two and a half times the number who stayed in the next largest host country (Germany). The authors noted that Turkey being a neighbor of Syria - which was the largest source nation of refugees - was a significant factor.

Historical Timeline History of Legal and Illegal Immigration to the United States

7.8 million illegal aliens took US Jobs in 2016
Pushback has business looking for an alternative.

Other Long-Term Economic Questions
1. Will Inflation/Growth Tame the Deficit
2. Will Debt End Capitalism?
3. Jobs Loss to AI Growth
4. Dollar Privilege Continuation
5. Disposition of Illegal Immigrants

Short-term Economic Questions
1. Trump Keeping Economy In Good Shape?
2. Will Trump Tax Cuts Work?
3. Inflation Is Back, Is There Going To Be Trouble?
4. Stock Market Too High?
5. U.S. Headed for Recession?

Free Book of the Semester
Great Recession: Historical Perspective

Winning of the H-1B Visa Lottery Boosts the Fortunes of Startups Overall, getting (approximately) one extra high-skilled worker causes a 23% increase in the probability of a successful IPO within five years (a 1.5 percentage point increase in the baseline probability of 6.6%). That�s a huge effect. Remember, these startups have access to a labor pool of 160 million workers. For most firms, the next best worker can�t be appreciably different than the first-best worker. But for the 2000 or so tech-startups the authors examine, the difference between the world�s best and the US best is huge. Put differently on some margins the US is starved for talent