Chapter 14 Fiscal Policy
I. Economic Goals of the United States
I. Economic Goals of the U. S. Employment Act of 1946
began reaction to five-year Soviet Union economic plans.
A. Set four economic goals
a. Economic growth
b. Price stability
c. Low unemployment
d. Positive balance of payments
B. Created Council of Economic Advisors
C. Humphrey–Hawkins 1978 Full Employment Act set specific
1. Set five-year goals for economy
2. Specific goals
a. 4% unemployment
b. 3% inflation by 1985, 0% by 1988
c. Reduce balance of payments deficit
d. Increase economic growth and investment
e. Reduce the size of the public sector
D. Government Policy Options to Meet Goals
1. Fiscal policy, the focal point of Keynesian economics, is this chapter's topic.
a. Discretionary fiscal policy
b. Automatic stabilizers
2. Fiscal Policy may lead to noninflationary Full Employment
E. Some History
a. The Employment Act of 1946
b. 70 Years of Advising the President by the CEA
c. Fiscal Foundations, History of Successful for US pp181-224
Monetary Policy will be covered in chapter 15.
Discretionary Fiscal Policy
BY BRUCE BARTLETT
Source has much data
III. Automatic stabilizers
A. Cause the economy to expand without government
action during recession by increasing AD.
B. Cause the economy to contract without government
action during inflation by lowering AD.
C. fiscal policy & automatic stabilizers - 8 min.
1. Transfer payments (unemployment compensation,
food stamps, and other social programs) increase
during recession to increase AD.
2. Progressive taxes (income tax) increase during
inflation to lower AD.
3. Importance of Automatic Stabilize
4. Automatic stabilizers not as good as they should be
US Usually Spends Less
But Quickly Adds to the Pot
Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy
1. Determining when recessions begin is difficult.
a. Disagreement over whether the U.S. was in
a recession from 1989-1991 resulted in little
fiscal action being taken.
b. The 2001 slowdown happened so fast there
was not time for preemptive action.
2. Fiscal policy takes time to implement
3. There will be a delay because it takes business
time to expand capital investment.
B. Political considerations
1. Some spending programs are difficult to cut
(social security, military, education).
2. Expansionary bias: people vote to spend but
not to tax.
3. Political business cycle: it is difficult
to accomplish anything economically
constructive during an election year
C. Recently, many felt the federal debt is too big
and has rendered fiscal policy ineffective.
Its success in ending the 2001 recession has
yet to be determined although the Federal
budget surplus certainly makes it easier to
increase federal spending and decrease
taxes although the expense of fighting three
wars has again increased the deficit.
D. In 2012 People Fear the Drag of Taking Away
the Stimulus of 2009- 2011.
E. Kansas Fiscal Policy Tax Cut Failed 10//17 B Ritholtz
F. Fed Uncertainty of Economic Effects Of Tax Cuts.
See Chart State and local cuts have very nearly run their course at this point, but the economy now faces the run-off of stimulus programmers, as well as the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits and, potentially, the expiration of lots of other tax proposals. The President's latest plan aims to move the total government impact on growth from a drag of about 1.5 percentage points of GDP to approximately even. When the economy is growing at between 1% and 2% per year, a 1.5 percentage point drag on output is a very big deal indeed. See Government Spending Might Not Create Jobs Even During Recessions
Fiscal Policy Affects the Private Economy
D. Trump Tax Act Still and Trickle Down Economics
VI. Deadly Innocent Sins Frauds of Economic Policy
Post Great Recession Stimulus Ended Quickly
CV-19 Stimulus was Massive
Personal Income Helped Lots
Biden Wants More
Here is Why
Modern Money & Public Purpose
Modern Monetary Theory Videos
We Attacked a Slowing Economy in2016
Effect was Minimal
25 Lessons Learned for Our Fiscal Future
In Europe Austerity Was
Either Neutral or Destructive.
Deficits Create Growth Leading to Wealth
Federal Expenditures Lagged
Great Recession Recovery Also Lagged
Editor's Note: Fiscal Policy and the
A world-wide saving glut developed in the late 1990's as the Asian Crisis caused developing nations to be more conservative and accumulate mostly dollar reserves. Their resulting lack of demand created a positive trade balance and the need to create demand else ware to soak it up. The US did it's part with two unfinanced wars, a tax cut, and private debt expansion. In the initial months of the stimulus, the net government contribution to GDP growth was positive. As the severe recession impacted government budgets, however, state and local cuts mounted, ultimately offsetting stimulus at the national level.
In U.S. Government Spending
In U.S. Government Spending Increases GDP
Debt Ceiling Deal
F. Raising Taxes In 2012 Not Same As 1993 from businessinsider
G. Affect of Tax increases in 1937
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