Covid-19  What Comes Next
Index   Vaccine     Fatalities  Masks     Superspreading   2nd Waive    Health System     Next Epicenter    Global Recovery     Death Rates
Return to Latest Pandemic News  7/520     Please Share!

Breaking News: Alarmist vs. Minimalists

Alarmist Epidemiologists Predict Doom
 "We are back to square one."




Minimalists Data Scientists Predict
"Virus is burning itself out."

Viral Impacts Explained - The PANDA Pandemic Data & Analytics Group 72 min video
Nobel Prize Winner
Michael Levitt explains this Viral Lockdown @MLevitt NP2013
Much help comes from Smart Distancing
like masks, 6 feet distance, and taking temperatures.
Little help from extreme
"Medieval Distancing," lockdowns which lose value quickly
once the virus begins to spreads and lockdowns are soon not worth their opportunity  cost.
Bottom Line: Excess Death from CV equal about one month of fatalities with a few more
in highly dense populations.
Editor: It is like an extra flu season but shutting down makes the opportunity cost extremely high.            
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Is Second Waive is Coming to an End?


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Source Peter Ziehan  What Come Next 57 min. video


The Bad
1. Have been Unable to develop a vaccine for 5 Coronavirus identified since 2003.

2. Hundred plus vaccines now under development, all have there own ingredients
    and manufacturing supply chains which must be ramped up.
    a, A vaccine based on yeast could be made in large batches in a
few days.
    b, If based on Soap  Bark Tree, the next harvest will be in
    c. Lots of Vaccine possibilities in between.  

The Good
1. Major manufacturing companies believe their vaccine will work and are already
    ramping up by investing  many millions to produce a few million doses this year.

    World will need billions of doses.

    Which country is first? Which subset within the country gets vaccine first.?

2. Production
    If RNA sequencing is the first method, other manufactures working in this space
    will adjust their process and we will have millions of doses this year and billions
    next year.

3. Administration has prioritized fourteen, China only four.

4. See 1976 Swine Flu Vaccine  and Special Studies



Death Factors

Limiting deaths requires tracing positive, confirmed, tested deaths.

Europe hit first and has had big drop-off.

Spain suffered most. Lockdown caused 80% DROP IN FATALITIES because it was stronger, with much public understanding and trust in government.

Bad News

US has had a 30% drop in fatalities with many coming from New York.
US lockdowns weren't as stringent. In Paris, food shopping required
a permit that lasted one hour. In Colorado, Pot Shops stayed open.
Six states had no lockdowns.

Many states have not been successful at lowering fatalities.
FEDs have "head in sand."
FED's have not coordinated or improved  reporting, developed a testing system, educated the public, spearheaded industrial retooling to
mitigate the next waive.

Good News

States now know their will be no Federal response.




Bad News

N95 masks are the Gold Standard with Surgical Masks second. They require unique materials for each of their three layer with the third layer creating an electro static charge to kill the virus. Each layer requires its own big as a house manufacturing machine. Three more machines are required for assembly. All done in a medical grade sterile environment.

Creating the manufacturing process requires four month and should have been coordinated by the federal government beginning in February, or March, or even April.

Good News
But with no federally coordinated program, the private sector took over and we will have high quality masks by August.

This is an example of how little has been done and
this shows up in the case load data

Editor Addition: 6/25/20 Reopening increased mostly young people cases but death continue downward.

Masks Slow Covid-19 Spread


Why is the Coronavirus so good at Superspreading?

Three preliminary estimates show that 10 to 20 percent of infected people cause about 80 percent of virus spread. Microscopic droplets created by coughs or sneezes or even speaking spreads the virus if another person breathes them in. Thus we have the at least 6 feet and wearing a mask in public rules.

But scientists are finding tinier, longer-lasting aerosol particles that spread through breathing or speaking (or flushing a toilet) also are spreaders. They linger in the air for up to three hours. An infected person could, over an extended period, seed a poorly ventilated indoor space without getting physically close to  those being infecting.

Also, people typically have the highest level of the virus in their system (making them infectious) right  before symptoms develop.


But spreading also has to do with a carrier's “viral load” — an amount that actually tends to go down as symptoms wear on. A May study suggests that people who had symptoms for more than eight days might not actually be very infectious.

Only one of the 22 cluster location types was outdoors. It consisted of three outside building sites in Singapore which caused four clusters causing 95 infections. But studies indicate closed environments are almost 20 times more likely to spur additional Coronavirus infections. Loud talking and singing can spread more virus than talking at a normal volume. Think singing at karaoke parties, cheering on the New York Knicks, having conversations in bars, and exercising in gymnasiums.

Some current efforts to prevent Superspreading — like taking a people’s temperature before they enter a building — can help, but are not foolproof.


 2nd Waive

Editor's Note: As much as I respect Peter Ziehan,
any speculation about the future makes me nervous.


New York. New Jersey have slowed but are still not in under control. Other states not so much. They have hit a wall and not fallen back!
Florida Texas and California are three of the more populated "wall state." So are original states Washington and Louisiana. Wall states have not surpressed the virus, they have just frozen infections at an elevated level. The second waive will begin at these elevated levels.

Virus growth rate will be slower because of in place mitigation attempts like masks. In about two months, metro areas will be hit by a second waive  They will have a higher death rate than the first waive. This is our new reality.

Problem is now virus management, not virus containment.

Virus can not be eliminated! It is part of our background. It is with us causing limited on travel, tourism, entertainment, restaurants, and retail sales. Masks and working from home are cooked into our new normal. Staffing, especially retail, will be difficult because a virus illness means 3 or 3 weeks missed work. Replacing these un-semi skilled workers will add costs as everyone will be looking for replacements. Regular shut downs, less throughput, fewer hours plus less consumer activity mean what economist describe as a 90% economy. This could be optimistic because you can not open in the face of fear.

A policy change like opening an economy takes 3-5 weeks to show up
in case loads. "Just in time for 4th of July."




From The Editor:

The answer to Peter's 4th of July speculation
will begin stage 4!

Trump's Gambling for Resurrection
Trump Took "The Road Not Taken"





US Needs a 2nd, Separate, Parallel Health System

Fear causes some to stay at home using self medical practices.

This means people are dyeing at home from appendicitis, child baring...

It causes hospitals to lose money and lay off caregivers.

A vaccine will end the need for this system so FEDs must do it


Next World Epicenter


Rural America May Replace
South America as the Next Hotspot

Travel to and from new hotspots will be affected.

NY, NJ and CT Quarantine High Virus States 6/24/20

4. No World Recovery

Consumer led economies require young people who borrow and spend.

Export economies are older, save more, and consume less.

Countries will want to be more self-sufficient adding to world supply.

Excess supply will cause negative growth in export dependent nations.

Four completed trade deals by the Trump administration with
Japan, Korea, Canada. Mexico with the UK in process have
about half of the US trade portfolio.

US is already retooling to lead a less globalized post COVID world.

End of the Export Driven Growth Model.
Countries with > 15% of their GDP from international trade are in Deep DO-Do

Think Europe, especially Germany,  and East Asia, especially China.





Infection Rate Increase Has Been Constant

Death Rates?

People fear of hospitals has dramatically increase the overall death rates.

Up by a third in US and one half in Europe.

Just holding the infection rate where it is now is optimistic since we have reopened. This could mean another 350,000 deaths this year.

COVID-19 death undercounting and death due to fear of hospitals will add to death totals though improved nursing home and medical care could reduce deaths.

Next waive may hit younger people.

See Florida CV-19 young People Cases Skyrocket 6/26/20

Death Analysis  7/10//20

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Daily Deaths Continue Up but Total Deaths Per million
Very  Low Compared to Northeast


Much Pressure on Hospital

Populous States Daily Deaths Per Day Low Compared to Northeast

Arizona Hit Really Hard

Deaths Followed a Little, Then Flat, Now Up


Most Say Its Going Up "UP,"
a Few  Say "Down"



Part 1  Exponential Growth is Terrifying
Part 2 Curve Fitting Sigmoid/Gompertz Growth
Part 3  CV19 Never Grows Exponentially





Known Early, Did Little


Special Studies

CSpecial Studies   Latest News    A Concise History      June 12 Summary   Planning the Economic Recover   COVID 19 Death Cycle   
Media Caused Hysteria?   OVID 19 Morality Thought Experiment    Fake News Covid-19
MLB Study And The Lockdown Dilemma   Paul Romer-Change in Approach