2024-25 Political Economy Analysis

Trump's Economy
Analysis of Trump 2

Latest Economic News
Executive Orders Post Election Pre Election Economy Election Analysis

Trump Inherits Good and Bad from Biden 2017 Tax Cut Extension Affects Many

Trumponomics Centers on Trade 3/9/25

Many Executive Orders on Hold

4/4 SC Rejects Trump on USAID Foreign-Aid Freeze
implementation to follow

2/7 (Reuters) - a federal judge temporarily blocked the
Trump from mass firing of federal agencies recently hired employees.

EO spending freeze was court blocked within hours.

EO to ignore 14th amendment birthright citizenship
Permanently blocked by court order.

EO to pause on a law banning TikTok and
to provide a liability shield.
EO being ignored by providers.

New

Successful Executive Orders

Fired inspectors general could sue for lack of notice,
but Trump would give notice and fire them again.

USAID shut down proceeding,
cost being debated

Successful Day One Executive Orders

1. Ended Diverse, Equity and Inclusion programs,
made illegal by Supreme Court 2024 decision

2. US Gender Identity Defined
as two biologically distinct sexes — male and female

3. Rescinded 78 Biden-era executive actions,
orders and presidential memoranda.

Reactions

1. Federal Judge Orders Trump Move Faster 2/10/25

A judge determined Trump not taking sufficient action to follow his order. Another 9 federal courts have temporarily halted or rejected Trump actions
Vice President JD Vance openly challenged judicial authority. .
Seven Lawsuits Against Trump to Watch

The Big Questions
1. Inflation kindled by tariffs
2. Unemployment kindled by less federal spending
3. Supreme Court chevron effect
4. Interest Rates
5. Will Business join states

Trump Inherits a Strong Economy	and a Weak Fiscal Position
		Many Unhappy if 2017 tax cut not extended

		Credit card rate up 7+ % pts as FED increased interest rates to slow inflation
Consumer Debt is Down 2 Points After COVID
To be continued into 2025		Did Interest Payments Crash Harris
Example of Trumponomics Saving Money Lowering SNAP Very Low Income Families Lose Under SNAP Proposal Now. lose benefits at income of $13,748 Proposed, lose benefits immediately upon earning income US Economy Getting More Consistent Old Recent News Federal appeals court final decision blocks $470 billion Biden's student debt cancelation. Many of ± 7.5 million Americans who signed up for debt cancellation will see 100-200 point loss in credit scores. Latest Economic News 3/6/25 Private layoffs up 245% to 172,000 as of 2/12/25, so effect of both private and public layoffs plus less public spending may begin to show in April. Low world petroleum prices are a big positive as Trump battles the problem that the negative effects of Trumponomics on economic growth will happen faster than the positive effects on business and government. 3/6/25 Trump bows to political pressure and again delays Mexico/Canada Tariffs. Potash and vehicles imports were big winners. 50% of US imports from Mexico and 62% from Canada may still face tariffs. When Will Trump Own a 2025 Recession Drags Increased student loans payments, nonprofit's tax-exempt status risk, especial collages, tariff anxiety and their negative macro effect, cuts to the federal workforce, the clampdown on immigration labor, and a potential drag on business investment amid so much policy uncertainty. Tail Winds New tariff deal with Canada and Mexico, new trade agreement with GB similar to the pro US 2018 agreement with S. Korea, 2019 pro US agreement with Japan, US Russian peace agreements includes increase in world oil supplies The Big Questions 1. Inflation kindled by tariffs 2. Unemployment kindled by less federal spending 3. Supreme Court chevron effect 4. Interest Rates 5. Will Business join States and copycat DOGE spending cuts?
Pre Election 2024 Economy Analysis Pre-election analysis updates ended 10/5/24 Covid Lockdown Handled Well by Washington Trump-Biden Risked Inflation to Lower Unemployment Short Recession Inflation Getting Back To Normal Presidents and Federal Reserve Responded Well US Growth Led the Industrialized World Small Business is Booming Latest Data and Discussion Topics See 2024 Election please share Walter

2020 Short Recession

A Two-Quarter Recession

Inflation was Transitional San Francisco Fed estimated supply chain shocks caused 60% of the U.S. inflation mid 6/21-mid 6/23
Federal Government Responded Well to Covid	Unemployment	Inflation Effect
Trump failed to stop Democrats and Media from forcing economic shutdown.
CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) 3/27/20, $2.2 trillion spent	14.8%	Very Little
COVID-19 Relief Package (Consolidated Appropriations 12/27,20, $900 billion spent	6.7	Some
2021 Biden adds to the spending American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) - Enact 3/11, 2021, $1.9 spent	6.1	Moderate +
Fed predicts inflation transitional, but it stayed high longer because
Supply Chain bottlenecks as Covid slows globalization		Moderate
Feb4-20 22 Russia invades Ukraine		Moderate

	 Post WW 2  Cycle 
	Analysis

	       1. Competitive 
	Adjustments

	            2. Good 
	Jobs Gone

	            3. Severe 
	Recessions

	            4. Great 
	Recession

	            5. Great 
	Recession

	            6. Market 
	Bubbles

	            7. Big Cycles Over Last 100 Years
	
	@LHSummers

' quotes. What could replace the dollar "when Europe's a museum, 
	Japan's a nursing home, China's a jail, and Bit coin's an experiment"?

US Growth Leads the Industrialized World

1950-1980 Liberals Dominate with Roe Wade, Race Integration, Social Programs

1981-2016 Conservatives Dominate with Globalization, Tax Cuts-especially for business and rich

1988-2020 FED Easy money lead to High Business Income lead to massive Stock Market Gains.

1950 to 2020 Globalization leads to income inequality as the top 10 % do very well and
the lower 50% receive a small income increase and a large wellbeing boost from
Medicare and Medicaid, SS, Tax Credits and SNAP type assistance.

2020-2030 will be a time of insecurity leading to anxiety.

2024 Election Information

Small Business is Booming

PCE Items Priced

Discussion Topics

18-charts Explain US Economy/

Myths About Inflation video

Higher education bubble in the United States

Bloomberg.world economic indicators

Great Depression Myths

Myths About the Great Depression

Special Topics in Microeconomics