1. Summary: How Democracies Die provided by textbooksfree.org/
2. Author's YouTube Videos from Steven Levitsky,
Daniel Ziblatt
Why we wrote the book 4 min  
Book Review 8 min   Outline, Questions 64 min    Forum 102 min
3. Data:
Our Divided Nation
4. Related Studies:
Politics in Our Democratic Federalist Republic     Who Controls Democratic Politics

Global Economic Growth and the Rise of Populism   U.S Constitutional History  11/23/19  Please Share!

 

1. How Democracies Die
from author/editor Walter Antoniotti   11/25/19     Please Share!

1. Discovery 1 Best way to stop authoritarians is to make sure they never come to power.

21st Century Dictator Methods: Pre Cold War-Military Coup, Post Cold War-Win Elections, then take control

Two change in US caudate nomination process opened the door for a modern day US demigod.
Through the 1968 election, Party leaders picked he candidate at the convention.
This smoked room process did not always result in appropriate candidates, but it did keep extremists out.
By 1972, primaries, conducted over many months, were binding.
The filtration process was gone. A authoritarian had an easier path to the Presidency.
The Democratic Party created super delegates who can cote for anyone, to hopefully act as a gatekeeper.

The party establishment, could act as a gatekeeper by refusing to support candidates that went to far
Or, they could abdicate this responsibility and overlook candidate violations.

Democracies did failed in 1920's Italy, 1930's Germany, and 1990's Venezuela.
There, political party leaders, hoping to tap into a  Demagogy's popularity, make and eventually lose, a Faustian-bargain.
In the U.S. has had a few politicians, especially during war, who were not checked by their party.
President Lincoln had a free hand and a civil war was needed to maintain our constitution.

Discovery 2 Our constitution alone is not enough
 to prevent authoritarianism from destroying the fabric of our democracy.

Two Norms of Democracy are required for stability, they are the soft Guard Rails Norms of Democracy.

1. Mutual toleration: public and private acceptance of opponent's legitimacy.

 2. Institutional forbearance: under utilization of one's power-
by accepting the other party's legitimacy, do not follow the letter of the law.
Both agree to disagree and follow the spirit of the law.

Problem: Politian's are throwing forbearance to the wind.
Note: fights to the death brought down many 1930' European Democracies

3. Historical Analysis: Over a Rocky Road, U.S. Soft Rails Democratic Norms Grew slowly.
Hamilton and Jefferson were bitter political enemies.
Both felt the other side would destroy the Republic.
President Washington began presidential norm developed.
 But they failed during the run-up to, and conducting of, the Civil War.
After a few decades, the Guard Rails norms returned.
No Impeachments, No Court Packing, Judicious use of Filibusters and
Presidents refrained from acting unilaterally by bypassing Congress and the courts.

4. Six Democratic Norms, If Abused, Could Bring Down Our Democracy!

  Presidential Norms

Executive Orders The executive order issued by the Obama administration on visa and foreign visitor processing that aimed "to enhance and expedite travel to and arrival in the United States by foreign nationals was reversed by Trump. This was one of many trump roll backs of Obama Rules.

Presidential pardons numbers have dropped dramatically in the last 100 years. Trump may set a new low. This is an example  of Institutional Forbearance.
Supreme Court Packing was first tried by the first President Adams. FDR's famous court packing failure illustrate the respect many have for political norms.

Congressional Norms

Filibusters are crated by the lack of a senate speaking time limits Attempts to limit the time for

debate include Budget Act of 1974 that created the budget reconciliation and changes made in 2013 and 2017 that required only a simple majority to invoke cloture on nominations. But, most legislation still requires 60 votes. This is an example of Mutual Toleration.

Appointments Advise and Consent Clause The Senate rejected only 27 (20%) of the 149 nominees to the Supreme Court made between the nation's founding and 2005. This is an example  of Institutional Forbearance.

Impeachment Only two U.S. presidents have been formally impeached by Congress- Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton- and no U.S. president has ever been removed from office through impeachment. Only two other U.S. presidents have faced formal impeachment inquiries in the House of Representatives: They were Richard Nixon and Donald Trump. Many other presidents have been threatened with impeachment by political foes without gaining any real traction in Congress.  This is an example  of Institutional Forbearance.

 

 

5. Following the Civil War was a century when constitutional checks and balance,
with the help of Democratic Norms, protected our constitution.

But political stability was maintained at the price of racial exclusion and authoritarian rule of the South.
Substantial progress was made in fulfilling the goal of Democracy began again in the mid 19f60's.
But so to did a new period of polarization.

Checks and Balances provided by the U.S. Constitution
are not enough to restrain overreaching politicians.
We also rely on unwritten rules, our guardrails.
Political leaders must be  committed to the traditional political norms of
mutual toleration-
accepting the other party as legitimate,
and self-restrain- not always following the letter of the law.

6. Political norms have been unraveling for two or three decades.
Early signs in the 1990's when Republicans tried to shut down government and impeach Clinton.
In 2000's got going with during Obama's campaign when he was called a Marxist, Terrorist,. and
 the  Birther Movement questioned his Presidential Legitimacy.
All Democrats were not Real American.

7. America has always had an extremist fringe
but these comments were from prominent politicians
who were beginning to deny the opposition's legitimacy.
Politicians had decided to play constitutional hardball and
exploit our Democracy by following the letter of the U.S Constitutional

Constitutional Hardball tactics consisting of
stonewalling nominations, court packing and exploiting the power of the purse
have all been recently used by Republicans.
Both parties have used impeachment.

8. Has not-do has become a norm?
Filibuster and government shutdowns have became common.
Lack of a budget almost caused the U.S. Treasury to default.
Finally, the US Senate did not allowing the President to fill a Supreme Court vacancy.
 This had not been done since Post Civil War Reconstruction.
They can do/not-do about anything.
Not-do was becoming the norm?

Some politicians were not accepting forbearance.
Any tool was to stop the opposition from destroying America was legitimate.

The problem is not that we elected a demigod.
The problem is we did so when our Guard Rail Norms are becoming unmoored.

 


9. Trump's Use of Strategies Used by Authoritarians to Consolidate power.

Capture the Referees
During week one, Trump demonstrated striking hostility toward
 our law enforcement, intelligence, ethics and court referees.

He demanded loyalty and compliance from many of his Agency Directors:
 He pressured FBI-Comey to drop investigations of recently departed NSD-Flynn.
He pressed DNI-Coats and CIA-Pompeo to intervene in the Comey investigation.
He personally intervened with DNI-Coats and NSA-Rogers wanting them
 to release statements denying the existence of his collusion with Russia. Both refused.
He controversially fired Comey.
One other FBI director had ethical problems and was uncontroversial fired.
He
fired Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara for continuing his investigation
 of money laundering activities which were reportedly getting close to Trump's inner circle.
His reactions to the Mueller Investigation were at best, controversial. Please Share!

Sideline Key Players

Attacks on the media for being the
enemy of the people because hey broadcast fake news, and conspiring against him.
These were followed by threats
 to change the libel laws
 to use antitrust actions against CNN
to block the Time-Warner merger 
to challenge the license of NBC and other networks.
To date Trump's threats have resulted in no action.

Rewriting Rules Against Opponents

He called for bolstering Republican majority strength in the US Senate by
changing archaic Senate rules including tie Filibuster.
The filibuster t was only eliminated for Supreme Court nominations
which allowed for the Neil Gorsuch confirmation.

He most antidemocratic move may have been creating the
Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity
to uncover election fraud perpetrated by illegal immigrant voters.
Independent studies had show almost no election fraud.
States refused to hand over election data.
He disbanded the commission.

Through 2017, Trump has repeatedly bumped up against the guard rails,
but "he did not break through them."
He did not cross over to authoritarianism.

Editor's Note: I do not know which is most intriguing
that he openly tried to bring back Jim Crow laws
that he thought his attempt to disenfranchise voters might work
that it represents his inability to accept reality
that like many of his actions, it caters to his base

 

 
 

Discovery 3 Partisan Polarization Caused by Fear and Loathing
is Eroding the Two Guiderail Norms of Democracy

In 1960, four or five percent of both parties reported they would be displeased
 if their child married into the other party. Today it is fifty percent.
In 2017 forty-nine percent of Republicans and fifty-five percent of Democrats
say the other party makes them afraid.
We have not seen this kind of party hatred since the end of reconstruction.

This is not normal liberal/conservative polarization about health care and taxes.

Today, polarization is about Race, Religion and Way of Life.
See The 4G's of Politics

Political leaders must protect the constitution.
But, Polarization has frayed this process in much of the Western World.

 
 
 


4. Future Possible Post Trump Scenarios

Swift Democratic Recovery as Trump, [like most populist leaders],
loses public support or is impeached of resigns.
But Trump is a result, and not the cause, of building Polarity.

A pro-Trump ultra conservative GOP maintains control
of the presidency, the U.S. Congress and a vast number of state governments.
[Is the Republican control of state governments the result of a lack of
Institutional Forbearance. Was requiring relegiouse companies to pay for abortion insurance required.
Gaining solid control of the Supreme Court could result in changes that result in durable white majorities.
Opposition could cause dramatic political stability.

Political Polarization will continue to grow

 

 
 

Editor's Thoughts
Most Americans look at America through Rose Colored Glasses.
Democracy, like Capitalism, has a Cycle-a Polarity Cycle when Democracy Brakes Down.

Polarity Cycle 1 was the period before the Revolution after which it peaked, and civility return
 as both Democracy and her Guard Rails Norms matured.
The Era of Good Feelings, associated with President Monroe (1817–1825)
was characterized by the dissolution of national political identities.

 

Polarity Cycle 2 began gaining steam with the growth of the abolition movement.
Both Mutual Toleration and Institutional forbearance forged a the compromise
 to pass the 1854 Kansas Nebraska Act but it left in an aftermath unhappiness and a Bleeding Kansas.
Eventually Democracy broke down, a Civil War resulted, and the nations democratic ideals were restored.
The military maintained peace in the South as one-part Republican Northern Oligarchs
 maintained dictatorial controls.

Polarity Cycle 3  A Populist Era and a Progressive Movement erupted during the Gilded Age.
Some would say many average citizens were poorly represented
as the Supreme Court protected property rights over human rights.

Polarity Cycle 4
The passage of the 1965 Civil rights Act began the latest polarity cycle.
It accelerated with the Great Society Program and then Roe Wade.
Civility, which had been reasonable for a century, began to decrease.
Global Growth the Rise of Populism is could somewhere on the 4th cycle.
 

 

5. Who Controls Democratic Politic

Four theoretical traditions of the study of American politics
Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination,
Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism


Each predicts influence over public policy:
 average citizens; economic elites organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented.

Empirical research
We use  one statistical model to contrast theoretical predictions against each other.
We used a unique data set  that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues.

Multivariate Analysis Indicates Independent Group Impacts on U.S. Government Policy

 Substantial Influence:
T
economic elites and organized groups representing business interests.
Study support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and Biased Pluralism.

Little or No Independent Influence Study Does Not Support Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism
Source: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens (Cambridge.org):


Editor's Comment: Because the Christian Right and NRA  are made up of average citizens,
how can mass-based interest groups,
"have little or no independent influence."

Return How Democracies Index

 

Media Divides Our Country

See U.S. Civility

Is Fake News a Problem?

 

Our Growing Urban Population Will Create Political Difficulties