Prologue: Financial Meltdown 2008-Structural Causes 1. Neoliberal's Caused Financial Collapse
Thanks toExperts: Mark Blyth, Adam Tooze, Francis Fukuyama, Steve LeVine
Return to Geopolitics 12/25/19 Please Share
Prologue: Financial Meltdown 2008 Structural Causes
Lack of Bank Regulation
Short-Term Reserves Were in Euros When Dollar Were Required
Academic Economist Under Estimated Economic Effects of Financial Market
Winners and Loses
World's Very Poor Benefited See Globalization in Pictures
Economic Growth Rate-G.
1.Neoliberal Economic Orthodoxies Wrong
A. Finance does affect real economy.
B. Finance system can falter.
C. Markets Need Regulation.
D. Many economist wrong because of politics. see Fake News Warning 7
2. Real Economy Trade Imbalances
2007-08 FINANCIAL CRASH
2. Loans to Greece from
Germany's trade surpluses
were not the problem
as France and the
to fund substantial daily borrowing needs for international commerce.
3. Almost all banks were very highly leveraged making large
Euro loans with short term daily $ borrowing used as collateral
A. When Lemans $180 billion
over-nigh funding needs
B. Credit stopped
4. Is FED Involvement in
a Geopolitical World Appropriate?
4. Is FED Involvement in
a Geopolitical World Appropriate?
5. Stability Needs Dollar Supremacy
A. World trade is stable because the world, through
B. Dollar investments are dependent on high Intellectual Property generated
C. Distribution of these profits
has resulted in more income inequality.
Documentary Of The Week: Steve Bannon At Oxford 2 hr video
Return to Political Economy Book Summaries 11/21/18 view horizontally Please share!
Failures Caused Popularism
summarized from Francis Fukuyama: Democracy's Failure to Perform
Edward Luttwak was prophetic in 1994by
"That capitalism unobstructed by public regulations, cartels, monopolies, oligopolies, effective trade unions, cultural inhibitions or kinship obligations is the ultimate engine of economic growth is an old-hat truth now because relentless competition destroys old structures and methods, thus allowing more efficient structures and methods to rise in their place reported by Schumpeter. Finally. structural change can inflict more disruption on working lives, firms, entire industries and their localities than individuals can absorb, or the connective tissue of friendships, families, clans, elective groupings, neighborhoods, villages, towns, cities or even nations can withstand, is another old-hat truth." from London Book Review Vol. 4/7/94
1. Development of Illiberal Democracy
1. Foreign Policy Failures of Developed Democracy
enhanced by U.S. foreign policy failures i.e. Middle East wars
2. Non-Liberal Democracy success, especially China
3. Poor Liberal Democracy Performance i.e. economic
slowness, immigration concerns, wealth accumulation
B. Definitions, nominal
1. States: monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
from Max Weber States are about Power!
2. Rule by Law: sovereignty sets the law i.e. China
3. Rule of Law: sovereignty responsible to same laws
as the governed. Laws limit power.
4. Democratic Accountability requires free political parties
with guarantee substantive accounting and a governments
that serves the entire population, not just the rich and the poor.
Liberals missed this effect of their policies.
Everyone Got More, Some Just Got More More Than Others!
C. Modern Political System
2. Patrimonialism: rulers own political system, resources , distribute wealth Who You Know
3. Neo-Illiberal States:
look democratic, limited representation,
leaders follow the money
D. U.S. Failures
at State Building
Immigrants, globalization, and establishment Leaders/institutions created dissatisfaction.
America's 1 dissatisfaction Spread to Europe causing two years of volatile pubic fury.
Unpredictable disruption to Europe and Western Culture is possible.
Status and Social Cultural Apprehensionseventually led to disruptions.
This caused effected groups to lash out in a tribal like response.
An End to a Post WW II U.S. Led Moderation is seen by some to be causing
1. Great power conflict returning to early Cold War levels
2 Declining world wide economic prosperity
All three disruptions could last years Axion reported here, here and here.
Optimistic leaders thought and even hoped Trump, Brexit, or something else
would help moderate continued disruptions.
Disruption modification related to Trump, Brexit, and immigrantswill be difficult.
1. No opposing stability force seems forthcoming
2. An aging and shrinking developed world's population reinforces disruptive forces.
3. AI is increasing worker employment anxiety.
3. Climate change is increasing leader concerns.
See European Threats 8/18
Would a more Federalist Approach decrease the animosity
Preface: The Populist Current of US Politics from Ages of American Capitalism
Often rural and distrustful of elite and urban power
It is Nationalist, anti-Globalist and ideological indeterminate.
Distinctive Emotional Pitch that is often religious in substance in tone.
Critical of economic inequality but commonly sarcomas to racist anti Semitic scapegoat.
Understanding Right and Left Populism
1. Growth of PopulismRight-wing populist parties
Erdogan's Turkey 2003, Modi's India 2014, Trump's American 2016,
Batten's United Kingdom 2016, also in
Austria, Hungary, and Poland
Latin America Uprisings in Bolivarian, Venezuela Bolivia and Argentina
Right and left populism affected neoliberal globalization.
2. Causes of Populism
Empirical study by Norris and Inglehart (2016) emphasized
3) nativism Theoretical account by Ernesto Laclau (decades) saw an “ equivalential chain”
of different demands from democratic, horizontal and egalitarian discourse.
3. Populism:Economic Insecurity or Cultural Backlash?
Three distinct elements
3) nativism vs. 3)osmopolitanism
Two distinct axes:
economic and cultural
Norris and Inglehart argue that the latter is the most convincing
The silent revolution of the 1970s appears to have spawned an angry and
resentful counter-revolutionary backlash today.”
One wonders whether the authors don’t seriously underestimate the threat
A worrying inference that the authors explicitly draw from their
progressivist premises is that populism will eventually die out.
The study therefore fails to sufficiently appreciate the ways in which populist governments
seek to institutionalize their agendas, thereby changing the rules of the game.
This has become most drastically evident in the case of Poland, for example,
in which Andrzej Duda (leader of the right-populist Law and Justice party) has significantly
limited the autonomy of the judicial branch of government. Other such examples abound.
4. Neoliberal globalization is comprised of four processes:
accumulation by dispossession
creation and re-distribution of wealth
economic insecurity and cultural anxiety
Together they have increased
Anxiety from neoliberal globalization has ammunition from right and left populists.
Neither Norris and Inglehart nor Laclau adequately account for
“the people” are differentially deployed by right and left and they
defines "the people"
as those confronting an
Left populism defines “the people”
defines the enemy
in personalized terms.
SeeThe Populists (article) | The Gilded Age | Khan Academy
Part Four Populism is the Reset Mechanism
Populism is not
an economic distribution complaint,
It is not just about wage stagnation and loss of jobs.
It is about disempowerment, social exclusion, unfairness, and humiliation.
Many Trump Populists seek recognition, having a meaning,
from Michael Sandel: Populism, Trump, and the Future of Democracy
Populism is not mob rule-Thomas-Frank podcast from the Analysis.news
George McGovern the populist who lost, Trump Won, Why, was it the man, the media, why were people unhappy
Important Question: is Kantian Morality Enough for the Public Sector,
especially since some think it is too much!
Should public discussion go beyond safe and delimiting morality
Should respect for work and be part of the discourse?
Should competing conceptions of the "good life" be on the table of public discussion?
Update from Ian Bremmer
Populism in Europe & America 1/24/19
Battle is not over between right and left populists.
Populist power will increase as European Parliamentary Elections, the big 2019 story.
Dysfunction between bureaucrats and politicians will weaken Europe.
Difficult to govern, harder to manage geopolitically arrangements between countries.
Data Trump's increased popularity with his base
Editor's Note:Michael wants more that Kant. Kant is enough.
Michael Aandel is a lot like Charles Murray who is basically correct,
Extreme conservatives want too much control, extreme liberals want no control.
Left wing populism is economic, the main stream view feels this is the starting point
Right wing populism is about the cultural loss caused by immigration, not prejudice
Summary of Summary
Neoliberal globalization increased economic insecurity and cultural anxiety.
Insecurity may need more attention by populist theory.
These are key to understanding the difference between right and left forms of populism
Related StudiesNazism And Neoliberal Mythmaking
German Reconstruction As State-Phobia
The State As Killer
Part 5 Crisis Through the 2020's
1. Development theory centered on financing growth with exports.
2. Excess world capacity grew.
3. Exporters were dependent on markets, dependent and hostage to buyers.
4. 2008 Financial Crisis lower world demand, exports fell, growth slowed.
5. China's lowered her demand growth for industrial goods and natural resources.
Recent Geopolitical Positions
1. United States is back to normal.
2. Europe economy still stalled.
3. China export growth was permanently slowed by increased Vietnam, Columbia ... lower cost competition.
4. Russia budget hindered by low export prices and was again forced to delay modernization.
5. Saudi Arabia lost export revenue and with it, Middle East dominance.
6. Iran has begun dominating "Iraq and Lebanon", has a "presence in Syria" and "operates in Yeoman."
7. North Korea's
bomb development is for bargain with US and she also wants less US
8. Middle East franking means not as strategic, chaos continues, Iran is the problem.
1. 3rd world debt crisis caused easily managed geopolitical ripples.
2. Nations are now even more economically interdependent.
3. Financial crisis led to a trade crisis making for increased, more persistent ripples.
4. Europe succeeded during her one reason to
5. World Leaders have many credibility problems.
1. Brussels wants Nationalism to cease, but it will not.
2. China can not quickly slow her export mercantilism.
3. Putin needs pseudo geopolitical power to exist.
4.United States must act as world leader, but she will not.
Recent Unstable Geopolitical Eras
Maturation of Core Technologies Intensify Problems.
1. Core Technologies spawn other
2. Maturing Lower Productivity
3. Technology Based Productivity Decline Not Recognized.
4. Coming Replacement Core Technology is Unknown
5. 2020's Will be a Classic Period of Geopolitical Dysfunction
Problems Have No Easy Fix1. China: facing slower growth allowed Xi to extend his power.
He strengthened the Communist Party and attacked corruption,
but can't decide who takes the pain from nonperforming loan. Think Euro!
2.Russia: Putin allowed to increase his strong man act
while looking over his shoulder. He has directed attention from a slow economy
and Russia's loss of geopolitical clout with local geopolitical interventions.
Rise of Nationalism Most Serious
4.United States has an import problem
as workers, displaced by cheap imports, revolt.
History will continue out-of rhythm until the US takes control.
Global Populisms and Their Challenges:
How Democracies Die 4p plus 4 videos
What History Reveals About Our Future
from S. Daniel and D, Ziblatt