Three Categories of US Desires
Affect of Trade War on Chinese
China Adjusts, will not over
react to Trump's trade policy
1. Trump’s trade war confirms that Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” was an expansion into China’s sphere of influence.
2. Recent actions means trade talks must be delayed at least until after US midterm elections.
3. Xi Jinping ability to consolidated more power is partially based on fulfilling a “China Dream.” He can’t back down.
4. China’s economy will suffer little, much less than 0.5 percent of GDP.
China believes she has
less near-term political vulnerability
but greater long-term economic vulnerability as
tariffs in both countries and could make sam
Chinese students in America is very important to long-term political
C. Relations With Russia Bremmer video
e offer to others.
3. From Bloomberg's New Economy Forum 4/19/19
China has no desire to scale back its winner-take-all industrial ambitions or to make fundamental changes to its authoritarian capitalism.
A mix that includes subsidies for state industrial champions and economic policy favoring local over foreign players, has succeeded.
Any final agreement will have Chinese pledges to buy more U.S. products but few promises to restructure the economy.
A trade deal won’t end China-U.S. frictions. In fact, the conflict has only just begun.
A 2018 report from Freedom House, a democracy watchdog, noted that 18 countries (so far) now use Chinese-made intelligent monitoring systems and 36 have received training in topics like "public opinion guidance," a euphemism for censorship. The list of countries includes the UAE, Zimbabwe, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Kenya, and Germany.
The worldwide infrastructure-building project "has pushed China’s huge construction, telecommunications and shipping companies to go global at a time when a cooling domestic economy means less business at home." Editor's Note: A common problem in centrally planned economies. Where is the data on the cost of China's overbuilding housing at home. Japan rushed into HDTV while US, very profit dependent, waited for digital technology.
1. China is pursuing “debt trap diplomacy"
But the idea that China deliberately forces debt onto poor countries, then grabs physical assets when they can’t repay the loans, isn’t supported by the facts, writes Deborah Brautigam. Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, is an exception. But, Simon Rabinovitch in The Economist, tfrrls Chinese loans can be “ruinously expensive” with little regard for risk. Rabinovitch among others thinks Chinese lending merely clumsy not malevolent.
Editor's Note: Economic Success of projects will determine success of program.
2: It’s another Marshall Plan
U.S. Marshall Plan didn’t rebuild Western
Europe after World War II. Infrastructure
had been largely fixed by the time U.S.
loans and grants kicked in, according to the
economist Barry Eichengreen. The Marshall
Plan’s introduced free market ideas,
and habits of cooperation that underpinned
democracy in postwar Europe. To the extent
the Belt and Road promotes state capitalism
and authoritarian governance, the initiative
is the exact opposite of the Marshall Plan.
But it’s a “debt trap," for instance, or China’s bid for empire — is way overblown.
At 2nd Belt & Road gathering in Beijing, President Xi Jinping went out of his way to address international concerns.
Whether this represents a reset, a course correction, or simply a rhetorical gesture remains to be seen.
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China was part of the Colonial Empire of Great Britain
Opium Trade was a Big Money Maker.