China Today and Tomorrow
Political Scientist  Eurasia Group's Dr. Ian Bremmer

Return to Current Political Economy Issues  
Updated 9/1/18  Please link to, use to educate and


What China's Done Right

1. Maintained stability without Western expectation of needed political reform.
2. Building World Infrastructure helps them join US as a leading influential world power.
3. Technology Ability substantially replaced steeling technology due to government and private investment.

What China's done wrong
High consumer and government sponsored debt, especially for inefficient
    government sponsored corporations which primary value is providing job.
2. Government control of economy means it owns blame for economic failures like
     environmental problems like pollution, lack of water and arguable land, cyber attacks
3. Lost low profile on trade growth as first Trump and now Europe, are tighter trade
    controls and Chinese foreign investment.

Much will depend on Xi Jinping’s success

1. Anti-corruption has spread across economic and political classes allowing
key Xi supporters to control important agencies.
2. Success variables.
    a. Undue or live with developmental damage.
    b. Develop manageable relations with other strong nations.
3. Maintaining control.


Ian's Discussion yields thoughts of former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Is  China's President Xi Jinping under increased domestic pressure?

1. Recent Internet criticism from an academic has stayed on line for a week.
    This is very unusual  though party leaders being on a vacation/retreat may be relavent.

2. Xi has more pressure than three months age.
    He under estimated Trump's strong stance and resolve regarding trade liberalization.
    Surprised by Europe's willingness to join US trade restrictions and Chinese Foreign Investment limitations.

3. He has been very aggressive when dealing with international questions.

4, The Cult of personality around Xi has received Internet questioning.

Analysis Trumps China Foreign Policy

Positive: Trump has forced internal Chinese discussions concerning their pro-Chinese mercantilist policies. However, the lack of an apparent trade war exit policy is troublesome. Especially if China is forced to save face with an increased nationalist policy centering on stronger security …

Obama main success was involving China in the Paris environmental discussions.

A future surprise may be US reaction to Chinese involvement close to U.S. boarders

Where is China going?

1. Unilateral Local Sphere of Influence with no U.S. interference.
2. Promenade Indispensable Economic Partner to much of world.
3. Lead Global Economic Reform

Probability of Success
A core question concerns their inability to solve a proposed 2013 problem related to government sponsored corporate inefficiency. This will hurt productivity and maybe growth. Solution was delayed  for political reasons.  Xi wants continue in control. This is an additional problem to the usual developing nation problems related to environment concerns, civil unrest, and rigidity of a one-power state …





Bremmer on China